The ESS in Lund
– its effects on regional development
1
THE EFFECTS ON REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT WHEN BUILDING
THE EUROPEAN SPALLATION SOURCE (ESS)
Project manager Charlotte Lindström, Regional Development Department,
Region Skåne Project secretary Therése Nilsson, Regional Development
Department, Region Skåne Text Håkan Gehlin, Margareta Irenaeus,
Rikard Jacobsson, Johan Karlander, Linus Owman, Niklas Sommelius,
Jan Sturesson, PricewaterhouseCoopers English translation Mark Wells
Photographs Kasper Dudzik pp. 6, 48-49, 59, 70, 80, 93, 112, 116, 126,
Informationsfabriken p. 30, 120, Per Johansson IBL p. 28, Dan Lindberg
p. 100, Therése Nilsson p. 90, Lars Owesson pp. 41, 115, Fredric Palm
p. 84, Sven Persson, Swelo Photo pp. 42, 78, PricewaterhouseCoopers
p. 94, Håkan Sandbring, sydpol.com IBL p. 119, Stadsbyggnadskontoret
Lund p. 23, Sydsvenskan/IBL p. 38 Layout Informationsfabriken,
Helsingborg Printers Exakta, Hässleholm No. of copies 1,000
Published by Region Skåne, Regional Development Department (2009)
POLITICAL CONTROL GROUP
Region Skåne Christine Axelsson, Pia Kinhult Municipality of Lund
Anders Almgren, Mats Helmfrid Helsingborg City Mats Rosdahl,
Sven-Åke Tannerstig Malmö City Julia Janiec, Patrick Reslow
PRODUCTION TEAM
Municipality of Lund Jan-Inge Ahlfridh, Inga Hallén, Matts Hansson,
Christer Källqvist, Fredric Palm, Peter Sörbom Helsingborgs City Stellan
Folkesson, Helen Mårtenson County Administrative Board in Skåne
Elin Henriksson Lund University Marianne Ekdahl Malmö City Jan Haak,
Magnus Hultgren, Kristina Ohlsson Region Skåne Douglas Almquist,
Jerker Bjurnemark, Carina Johnsson, Ola Richardsson
www.skane.se/ess
2
Preface
Negotiations are underway for the siting of the European Spallation Source,
ESS. Hopefully we will receive a positive reply during the spring of 2009.
The ESS, like MAX IV, will be a world leader in its field and together these
two facilities will be a hub in the European research infrastructure and be a
unique opportunity to create a stimulating research environment. The ESS
will contribute to growth in the region and to strengthening the research
and development brand of the Öresund Region and Sweden. The effects on
growth will partly be direct based on the amount of money that is invested
in Skåne, partly more long term and indirect as a result of the significance
of the facility for the climate of innovation, technological developments,
branding of the region and possible spin-off effects. How great the indirect
effects will be is, however, dependent on how well we succeed in integrating
the ESS and exploiting the long-term effects it can provide.
Today, Skåne is one of the foremost growth regions in Sweden and the
opening of the ESS and MAX IV could be an opportunity to accelerate
growth in the region. If the ESS and MAX IV are to be springboards for
future growth then a large number of players in the region have to work
actively and strategically. We hope that the information in this report will
improve preparedness in the region and be an inspiration for what your
organisation can do when the ESS is sited in Lund.
The report has been produced with the kind assistance of the Municipality
of Lund, Malmö City, Helsingborg City, the County Administrative Board in
Skåne and Region Skåne and has been jointly financed by the EU’s regional
fund. The study has been made in two parallel processes – one qualitative
and one quantitative. These analyses have resulted in a common vision and a
strategic agenda with concrete proposals for areas of continued collaboration.
Discussions will be held in the spring of 2009 about continuing the work.
We in the political control group would like to extend our sincere thanks
to everybody who has taken part in the project. We look forward to continuing the good work in the future!
Pia Kinhult
Region Skåne
Christine Axelsson
Region Skåne
Julia Janiec
Malmö City
Mats Helmfrid
Municipality of Lund
Anders Almgren
Municipality of Lund
Patrick Reslow
Malmö City
Sven-Åke Tannerstig
Helsingborg City
Mats Rosdahl
Helsingborg City
3
VISION 2030
Society for Science – Science for Society
If this vision can be realised,
something of which we are completely convinced,
then it requires a creative imagination,
a totally committed regional management and
an interactive community that melds global opportunities
with regional entrepreneurship!
We dared to put aside our own special interests
and agendas and concentrate on what was best
for the region as a whole in everything from
attitudes to cooperation to planning models
and the creation of legitimate regional leaders
in all sectors of the community who relate the
story of the future.
The slogan is: “what’s in it for us”,
not “what’s in it for me”.
VISION 2030
f The Öresund Region remains the place for prestigious investments in
f The ESS and MAX IV have been the bases for several of the researchers
various types of research infrastructure. The region gives impetus to pros-
who have been awarded Nobel Prizes. This has meant among other things
perity and growth, and is a world leader through its international materials
that the results from the facilities break all records for income, social benefit
research institute. The ESS and MAX IV are multidimensional springboards
and goodwill in relationship to the costs incurred. It has also meant concrete
that enable the Öresund Region to step into the Europe of the future with
growth in the form of new companies and jobs in all aspects from manufacture
all flags flying.
of components for the facilities in Tollarp and Östra Göinge to new cuttingedge companies within bio-tech. This is mainly due to the innovation system
f The ESS and MAX IV make the Öresund Region a more interesting,
finding new, creative functional forms of cooperation where not least Ideon
attractive and well-positioned knowledge innovation community with a
3.0 and Lund University Innovation Capital have succeeded in attracting inter-
justifiable world reputation based on relevant scientific excellence.
national risk capital. This is also highly positive for the Öresund Region’s high
ambitions for providing skilled workers and integrated worker immigration.
f The Öresund Region is distinguished by a uniquely visionary, innovative
and practical cooperation between various sectors in society based on
f That the attraction of the Öresund Region as a brand has increased
entrepreneurship at all levels from basic research to commercialisation
and developed into one of Europe’s most interesting and respected is
of future technologies within many scientific fields, not least energy, the
quite natural at the same time as its drawing power is continually amplified
environment and the life sciences.
through creative investments in the infrastructure, public services and the
arts. The attractive architectural and social design that characterise the fa-
f The Öresund Region is a clear example of how a dynamic and inte-
cility has rubbed off in the form of many major investment and building pro-
grated innovation system creates a Society for Science, which lays the
jects in the region. New landmarks see the light of day and are discussed
foundations for a research culture that gives payback through Science for
in an increasingly globalised world. Visiting the region gives an infusion of
Society, that is to say research in the service of Man and Nature. The regi-
energy and confidence in the future! Because Sweden dared commit itself
on with its renowned Öresund University and its two fixed links symbolises
to both the ESS and MAX IV at the end of 2008, the region has developed
‘regional internationalisation’ and a bridge between the community, trade &
and grown exponentially. There is continual discussion in the international
industry and research built on the attitude that each needs the others. The
media of a practical academic entrepreneurial region that is accelerating,
concept of Helix Lund, via Helix Skåne and Helix Öresund, develops into
expanding, investing, innovating, commercialising and integrating.
Helix Baltic as a result of the extensive links with Hamburg.
f What everybody is discussing is the ‘story’ that has developed around
f By investing in the ESS and MAX IV new advances and scientific break-
the Öresund Region as a centre of learning and growth, and is now also re-
throughs have been achieved which has led to insoluble problems being
nowned for its intellectual and imaginative tourism and interactive Science
solved! The most concrete expression of the facility’s public successes is
Centre that has developed thanks to the ESS and MAX IV.
that sustainable developments within the environmental and energy fields
have been made possible through the results obtained from being able to
The question everybody is asking is: “How could one get so much more
study individual hydrogen atoms in the ESS.
than ‘just research’ from two facilities?”
Contents
Preface
3
VISION 2030
7
Summary
10
Summary of the conclusions – quantitative
12
Summary of the conclusions – qualitative
13
1. Introduction
15
1.1 Commission, aim and actions
16
1.2 Implementation and method
16
1.3 Questions and time perspective
17
1.4 Strategic perspective
19
1.5 Innovation systems
20
1.6 Uncertainty factors that can be influenced
20
1.7 Uncertainty factors that cannot be influenced
21
1.8 Disposition
21
2. What are the ESS and MAX IV?
22
2.1 What is the ESS?
23
2.2 What are the MAX-lab and MAX IV?
26
2.3 Why do these facilities belong together?
27
2.4 How does the negotiation process for the ESS work?
27
PART II – QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
PART I – QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
3. Growth in the Öresund Region, Skåne and Lund
29
30
3.1 Regional development
31
3.2 Historical and future growth in the Öresund Region without ESS
35
4. What do we know about the economic effects
of investments on research infrastructure?
38
79
8. General global and local megatrends
80
9. The ESS and the surrounding society
– experiences from similar facilities
84
9.1 Theoretical basis
85
9.2 Facilities
86
9.3 Collaboration with the local community
86
9.4 Case study – networks associated with ISIS
88
9.5 Analysis – the Quadrant and megatrends
90
9.6 Summary – conclusions of the interest in the ESS and Skåne
92
10. The present situation looking towards the future
94
10.1 Analysis of the world situation
95
10.2 SWOP analysis
96
10.3 Awareness, expectations and expected effects
98
10.4 Sectors and stakeholder analysis
99
4.1 The Swedish Institute for Growth Policy Studies
39
10.5 Analysis of strategic resources
103
4.2 FPI – Research Policy Institute report
40
10.6 Expected effects of the ESS
106
4.3 Copenhagen Business School
40
10.7 What is needed next? Success factors
106
10.8 The involvement of the players in the process up to now
107
10.9 Important and decisive issues
108
10.10 Analysis
109
5. ESS – the effects on growth
42
5.1 Pre-construction period 2008–2011
43
5.2 During construction 2011–2018
43
5.3 Long-term 2018–2040
43
5.4 LTH and Ideon – a realistic comparison
47
6. The effects of the ESS and growth on various sectors
48
6.1 The property market
50
6.2 Communication
59
6.3 Energy
64
6.4 Telecoms
65
6.5 Research and development
66
6.6 The public services
70
6.7 Estimated minimum and maximum growth with the ESS
73
7. Summary and conclusions – quantitative
75
11. Strategic driving forces
112
12. Suggested future visionary aim
116
12.1 The dream and the story of the future
13. Scenarios
117
120
13.1 Scenario 1 – locally cooperating society
122
13.2 Scenario 2 – locally sectorised society
123
13.3 Scenario 3 – globally sectorised society
124
13.4 Scenario 4 – globally cooperating society
125
14. Vision and final scenario – the bridge to the future
126
14.1 Introduction
127
14.2 Social structure
128
14.3 Starting points, the springboard to the vision
128
14.4 VISION 2030
131
15. Analysis and conclusion summary – quality
132
15.1 Summary – quality
133
15.2 Summary of conclusions
134
15.3 Creating an attitude for success
135
15.4 Lessons learned from similar facilities and projects
139
15.5 General lessons learned from international regional
development projects
139
15.6 Suggested plan of action – strategic agenda
139
15.7 The Continuing process
143
References
144
Summary
As commissioned by Region Skåne, PricewaterhouseCoopers
(PwC) has carried out a study on the expected effects on regional development as a result of siting the ESS in Lund. The project
has been jointly financed by Region Skåne, Malmö City, the Municipality of Lund, Helsingborg City and the County Administrative
Board in the County of Skåne and EU’s regional fond.
The study has been carried out along two parallel tracks
– one quantitative, the other qualitative. The former includes
prognoses for growth in a number of selected sectors while the
latter has its origins in an analysis of the world situation, a questionnaire, interviews and seminars that have resulted in a proposal for a common view of how the ESS (together with MAX IV)
affects the development of the region in a number of fields.
As we see the situation, the whole of the ESS and MAX IV
process is completely in keeping with, and creates the content
of, the visions, aims and strategies that apply to the whole of
Skåne based on the objectives of the regional development programme, growth, attractiveness, sustainability and balance.
The two tracks in the process are conditional on one
another. The vision cannot be realised if the assumptions and
measures that are indicated quantitatively do not occur and are
implemented combined with a qualitative interactive process. The
reasoning behind this is explained in figure 1. The assessments
we make are given after this figure.
Various scenarios, e.g. ‘Competitiveness 2045’
Quantitative:
The Future
Qualitative:
Growth:
NB! This growth is dependent
on the innovations system
in the region functioning.
Innovative cooperation:
Vision
Actively cooperating community
0.08 % higher GRP/year,
SEK 214 billion until 2040
Cross border regional leadership
700 more fulltime jobs/year
Cooperation between
the ESS and MAX IV
500 more dwellings/year
Exploit the ESS as an active catalyst
Society for Science
Joint ownership of the vision
Strategic communication
externally/internally,
nationally/internationally
ESS
MAX IV
The region
Science for Society
Present position: strong
Position, skills, brand, infrastructure
Figur 1. Two parallel processes towards a common vision.
11
7,000 m² higher demand
for office space/year
Major upgrading
of the infrastructure
Expansion of the
international school
Summary of the conclusions – quantitative
The effects of the ESS on the infrastructure
f According to ÖRIB (Infrastructure and Urban Development in the Öresund Region), road traffic is expected to
increase by over 30 per cent up to 2045. To cope with this
an extensive investment programme will be necessary. This
includes investments in the E22, an increase in the number
of lanes in the E6 motorway between Malmö and Helsingborg in Sweden as well as a fixed link between Helsingborg
and Helsingør in Denmark.
The effects of the ESS on growth
f The growth effects from setting up the ESS are partly those
based on the investment of a certain amount of money,
partly the more indirect effect that derives from the facility’s
impact on the climate of innovation and any spin-off effects.
f The long-term indirect effect is decisive and the greatest. If
it does not occur, the effect on the region’s growth will be
marginal.
f Regional public transport company Skånetrafiken estimates
that an annual increase in rail traffic of six per cent will
be needed up to 2037. This means that several sections
of track will have a capacity problem and further investments will be required. For example, capacity increases on
the Malmö–Lund line and the line up the west coast, and
high-speed tracks will be needed and the Lund Link should
be transferred to a track-bound city network.
f Assuming that the ESS results in these positive long-term
effects, it can result in a higher GRP (Gross Regional Product) growth in Skåne of 0.08 per cent per year on average
and an average increase in employment of about 700 jobs
per year in Skåne up to 2040.
f The increase in fulltime employees has on average been
closer to 7,000 every year during the past decade and over
1,000 per year over the last 25 years.
f Based on the assessment that 23,000 new fulltime jobs, on
average 700 per year, are created in Skåne then this means
that, given that the transport system is expanded at the rate
required to cope with the increase in traffic even without
the ESS, the planned traffic system can cope with the
increase in travelling generated by the ESS. Expansion will
however be even more necessary with the ESS.
f The minimal accumulative effect of the ESS on Skåne’s
GRP up to 2040 will be SEK 35 billion assuming that the
ESS only affects the surrounding community marginally.
f The maximum accumulative effect of the ESS on Skåne’s
GRP up to 2040 will be SEK 302 million.
f The expected accumulative effect of the ESS on Skåne’s
GRP in the case that among other things means good cooperation between the important players in the community
and that are part of this report’s vision scenario amount to
SEK 214 billion.
The effects of the ESS on research and development
f Building the ESS makes great demands on the community
in general to supply the facility with highly skilled scientists and technicians. It is therefore of great importance to
increase the interest in technical education and that the
country’s colleges and universities turn out a sufficiently
large number of engineers.
The effects of the ESS on the property market
f Assuming this increase in growth, the effect on the housing market would be an increase in demand of about 500
homes per year in Skåne as a result of the ESS. This can be
seen against the background of an average increase of 3,500
homes per year over the past decade and nearly 4,700 over
the last five years, and a goal of 5,000 homes per year in the
regional development programme.
f Since education has been internationalised and there is
now an international market for students and scientists, it
is equally important to become one of the most attractive
places to study and do research in order to retain the newly
qualified students in the country and to attract students
and researchers from the rest of the world.
f If 50 per cent of the total increase in fulltime jobs of over
7,000 per year comes from office workers this means an
increase in demand of around 7,000 m² of office space per
year because of the ESS.
The effects of the ESS on the public services
f The ESS could mean an increase of some 200 foreign
children and adolescents. This creates a need to expand
kindergartens and the international school as well agreements between the municipalities in Skåne.
f In Malmö the increase in the number of office employees
has been 1,000 per year from 2000 to 2006 which corresponds to a demand for 20,000 m² of office space. In Lund
the corresponding figures have been 800 and 16,000 m²,
and in Helsingborg about 500 and 10,000 m².
12
f “The town/region that has the most ballets, theatres and
symphony orchestras wins.” 1 The municipalities believe that
the arts in each town and region are of an international
standard. The region offers a wide choice of cultural events
that increases as the region grows. It is important to retain
and develop the arts which in this instance gives a competitive edge internationally.
The negative effects expected, which are fewer than the
positive, apply mostly to the Municipality of Lund in
terms of numbers. This means that many believe that
much has to be done, which naturally is not necessarily
negative in a community that is in a state of flux.
– Types of resources: In the analysis of the strategic
types of resources it appears that the expected effect is
high for all forms of capital. At present there are for
the most part no maps, navigation instruments and
business ratios available to describe and create goals for
the required situation for the various types of strategic
resources. The conclusion is that a new type of control
and valuation of how the strategic resources within
the territory described by Skåne-Öresund should be
developed.
Summary of the conclusions – qualitative
f Megatrends are what count in the world today. It is quite
clear that globalisation, competition and application of
hi-tech are some of the most important trends. When it
comes to competition this includes not least the competition for future scientists and staff to the facility – and the
region in general. See Chapter 8.
f SWOP analysis,2 see Chapter 10:2.
f Experience from similar facilities in other countries (see
Chapter 9):
f Strategic driving forces – The visionary driving forces in
the ESS process primarily consist of (see Chapter 11):
– These facilities – such as the ESS – that are financed by
several countries run greater risks of becoming enclaves
with a lesser degree of exchange with the surrounding
community.
– Competitiveness
– Balanced growth
– It is quite clear that the ability to attract skilled staff
from various disciplines is decisive.
– Attractiveness
– According to the plans, the EES will be the world
leader for this type of facility from technological and
scientific points of view. But other criteria such as
level of service and cultural capital will determine
researchers’ choice of facility to do their work.
– Sustainability
– Scientific excellence and relevance
– Improvements based on business for the common
good.
f The ESS will contribute to strengthening the region and
Sweden as a brand with respect to research and development. The attractiveness of the region can be expected to
increase in relation to the degree of professional cooperation implemented. The new facilities have to be used in a
purposeful way in order to become important players in
the region’s development of the regional innovation system.
Furthermore the most important stakeholders – Sweden,
Region Skåne and Lund University + Öresund University,
Lund University Faculty of Engineering – have to analyse
how the facilities are going to affect their own brands.
f The awareness, expectations and assessments of players and
stakeholders in the planned ESS (see Chapter 10):
– The current position: The conclusions are that questions concerning the environment, cooperation, leadership and service need to be addressed in the coming
process. Questions of the region’s view of itself and how
Denmark can be strategically included in the regional
process in more ways than financing are also important.
– Sector analysis: The sector analysis shows that the respondents expect a series of positive effects in virtually
all sectors (the Municipality of Lund, other municipalities, research-intensive industries, the business community and so on). The analysis clearly shows, irrespective
of sector, that the ESS will increase the attractiveness
and value of both the local and regional brands.
f The whole ESS and MAX IV process is a balancing act between the ability of ESS and MAX IV to deliver scientific
excellence on one hand, Science for Society, and on the
other the community’s creation of the necessary requirements for ESS and MAX IV, Society for Science.
1 Arthur Bienenstock, Professor at Stanford University working at SNS and
former scientific research advisor to Bill Clinton.
2 Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Problems
13
f The international dimension cannot be emphasised too
much. It applies to the cooperation between the various
facilities and similar facilities as well as to acquiring new
international capital. In the shorter perspective it is also
about cooperation in the Northern European Region
– Lund, Copenhagen and Hamburg.
f A committed participation in the common vision is a
premise for succeeding with this/these megaprojects. In
the future all the various players with interests in the EES
and MAX IV also need to coordinate their own visions and
strategies with the ESS vision for maximum efficiency.
f Any negative factors have to be weighed against the expected added value a facility like the ESS can create in the
long term regionally, nationally and internationally.
Summary of comments
The global cooperative community of the future requires a high
level of interaction, cooperation and joint production by the
key players from the various sectors of the community (e.g.
region, municipality, state, private companies, nonprofits and
committed citizens).
There is a need to create commitment and participation to
an interactive and mutual process for the future based on three
important dimensions:
f Use the ESS and MAX IV processes as a deliberate strategic
catalyst for regional growth in close cooperation between
all the players in the community. Special focus should be
put on the players that are connected to the region’s various
universities (Öresund University, LUAB,3 Ideon etc.)
f Create an enlarged process organisation for the most important ESS and MAX IV stakeholders/players.
f A clear and legitimate regional leadership has to be created that manages the coming ESS andMAX IV processes
– irrespective of the sector of the community. Regions and
municipalities in Sweden and Denmark have a responsibility to create value for themselves and other players by acting
strategically in the process.
I. Focus on attraction and brand.
II. A community that facilitates scientific excellence – Society
for Science.
III. A research infrastructure (ESS and MAX IV) that delivers
technical and scientific breakthroughs in the major questions – Science for Society.
f Without taking prestige into account, intra-organisational
cooperation between the Municipality of Lund, Lund
University, ESS and MAX IV is necessary in order to create
a better concentration of effort at the national and international levels.
The players in the region need to have a joint picture of what
makes the difference, stands out and attracts attention, and
what goes without saying in a leading knowledge region that is
exposed to international competition.
Ensure joint part-ownership of ESS and MAX IV visions
and what these mean for future strategies for decision-making
and action.
Allow future visions and strategies within the region to
create new, exciting logic(s) and sometimes with new concepts
that have a unique, fresh content.
A new focus on social and intellectual capital is needed based
on the dimensions knowledge capital (the individual), structural
capital (the organisation’s support system) and relationship capital (social intelligence or organisational intelligence).
f The connection between the local/regional and national levels has to be improved so that Sweden, the region and Lund
can obtain the maximum benefit from the investments.
f Create a new, more powerful regional planning model
(with new boundaries for responsibilities) that is based on
the regional identity (before the local).
f To succeed in realising the visions requires hard, concentrated strategic work that is characterised by enthusiasm,
ability to imagine and the courage to think and act outside
of the box.
f The world’s two leading facilities can together create a valuable research environment and form a hub in the European
research infrastructure.
In conclusion The greatest risk with the ESS project is that the
players in the region (irrespective of their level in the community) do
not exploit all the opportunities that the facility, in combination with
MAX IV, generates.
f A strategic agenda is required and new channels of cooperation (see Chapter 15.6).
3 LUAB invests in and manages companies arising from research at Lund
University.
14
1. Introduction
In 1999, the OECD recommended that a new generation of high-intensity
neutron sources should be built, one in North America, one in Asia and one
in Europe.
The vision that the European facility, ESS (European Spallation Source),
should be located in Lund, Sweden seemed at first unrealistic.
In 2007, the Swedish government made a declaration of intent to
become host to the ESS. Today, now that the process of negotiation is in
full swing, the application made by Lund and the Swedish government is
among the strongest. From having been a dream of a dream, the present
situation is totally different.
Having a multidisciplinary research centre based on the world’s most
powerful neutron source in Sweden would mean a great deal for the country as a research nation and would make Sweden in general and the Öresund Region in particular more attractive places in which to live and work.
The ESS increases the attractiveness of the region which would increase
the conditions for attracting world-class research workers to the region and
thereby become a hub for cutting-edge research in Europe.
15
1.1 Commission, aim and actions
The ESS and MAX IV complement one another in their study
of various materials and can thus create significant synergy effects. The ESS uses neutrons for its studies while MAX IV uses
synchrotron radiation. The two methods can give complementary information on the object being studied at the same time
as certain objects are especially suitable for being studied in one
of the facilities. Having two complementary facilities close to
one another can create major synergy effects for the research
being carried out in each facility.
The reader should note that the report has not been written
as a future analysis where changes in people’s values, lifestyles
and consumption patterns have been taken into account. The
report is not a futurological study but is based on the present
situation and adds to this various scenarios within different
industries with or without the ESS being built.
As commissioned by Region Skåne, PricewaterhouseCoopers
(PwC) has carried out an analysis based on various scenarios of
the possible effects of setting up the ESS in Lund. The project
has been jointly financed by Region Skåne, Malmö City, the
Municipality of Lund, Helsingborg City and the County Administrative Board in the County of Skåne as well as the EU’s
regional fund. The analysis has focused on the quantitative and
qualitative effects on growth and regional development.
The aim of this report is:
f To produce a common vision of how the ESS can contribute to developments in the region with its sights on 2020
and with 2040 on the horizon.
f To create the basis for a constructive discussion of common
visions as well as various scenarios and strategies for action
through a broad and transparent process.
1.2 Implementation and method
To achieve these objectives, the report consists of two integrated processes.
A quantitative section that aims to produce concrete
numbers and effects within various areas of society of what will
probably happen to regional development if the ESS is built.
The areas of society we have focused on are:
f To give the Skåne region, the Danish municipalities and
other players information for strategic preparedness for
action in the event of the ESS being built in the region,4 in
other words to get a picture of the effects the ESS can be
expected to have on regional development and what would
appear to be necessary from the various players in the
region to succeed with the ESS and MAX IV.
f The property market
– Homes
f To increase regional involvement in, and understanding of,
the establishment of the ESS in the region by employing
a transparent development process in which the business community, the public, elected representatives in the
municipalities and regions around the facility as well as
the research community, develop a high level of participation that leads to the employment of new concepts that are
tailored to create a competitive advantage for the region as
a whole.
– Offices
– Hotels
f Communication
– Roads
– Railways
– Commuting
f To clarify what opportunities and challenges building the
ESS in Lund means for the region.
– Harbours
– Air traffic
f Energy
In our analysis we have just focused on the effects of the
ESS. At the same time there is a process to set up MAX IV, a
synchrotron radiation laboratory, with an application area that
touches on and complements the ESS. We have based the rest
of the report on the fact that if both the ESS and MAX IV are
located in Lund then the effects on regional development will
be greater than if just one of the facilities is built.
f Telecoms
f Research, education and the labour market
f Public services
A qualitative section containing:
f Trends and developments in society that affect the regional
development and with it also the environment where the
ESS is built.
4 The word ‘region’ does not refer to the authority Region Skåne. It refers to
a geographical area. Depending on the perspective of the analysis, it can
include one or several territorial layers (see figure 6). The starting point is Skåne
and the Öresund Region if nothing else is said.
16
f Evaluation of future opportunities and challenges.
statistics. It is based on the fact that commuters up to 2040
have the same preferences as today when it comes to choice
of means of transport and where they live. What PwC shows
is a scenario aimed at testing if the existing traffic plans are
sufficient to accommodate the increase in traffic that can be
expected from building the ESS.
For other sectors it is not so much a direct connection to
economic growth, more what will be needed to achieve functionality and attractiveness, and to what extent this is problematic or not.
The results from all sectors are based on interviews, general
background material, earlier analyses with bearing on the issue
in question, experiences from other facilities and our own
analysis work.
f Various future scenarios and assumptions that affect the
setting up of the ESS.
f What preparedness there is in society from the perspective
of stakeholders.
f How the region’s strategic resources can be expected to
develop as a result of the ESS being built.
f A strategic picture of the objective and visionary driving
forces in the region connected to a future establishment of
the ESS that makes the region even more attractive.
The aim has been to allow the more qualitative and visionary
ideas to interchange with the qualitative facts. We call this a
reality check (see figure 2) that is to say can it be judged as likely
that the visionary ideas will come to fruition?
Qualitative section
A large quantity of background material from ESS Scandinavia,
Region Skåne and others has been studies. An extensive analysis of the general situation has also been carried out. Similar
facilities and their effect on the surrounding communities have
been studied in places like Switzerland, France, Great Britain
and Japan. One part of the study of similar facilities was visits
to the facilities in Grenoble, France and Oxford, Great Britain.
A comprehensive questionnaire was sent to politicians and officials at various levels, to stakeholders in the public and private
sectors as well as stakeholders in civil society and scientists.
The respondents have been both Swedes and Danes although
mainly the former. Apart from the questionnaire, a number
of people with key roles in the region, both public and private
sectors, have been interviewed in depth.
Three ESS seminars have been held in Malmö, Helsingborg and Lund aimed at creating involvement and participation within the various sectors in the community in the ESS
process at a broad level. In this way we have picked up views
and currents in conversations and the process around the ESS
question, and the future process for Lund, Skåne and the
Öresund Region. Various conceivable scenarios were dealt with
by smaller groups during these seminars and then discussed in
large groups.
Quantitative section
The analysis of the effects on the property market is based on
what effect the ESS can in the first place have on economic
growth and employment in Skåne. We start with a scenario
Base and then add on the estimated effect of the ESS. This
growth is quantified by the increase in the demand for housing and office space. Through these assumptions of population
growth, price developments, the increase in the number of
office workers in Skåne, an attempt is made to show where in
Skåne the effects are likely to occur. These attempts are based
on future behaviour that does not differ markedly from that of
today.
Even in the analysis of effects on the infrastructure, the basis
has mainly been the effects on growth and with it increased
travel. In this analysis, PwC has assumed that the necessary
investments have been made during the period and that the
traffic system has the capacity described in the documents from
sources such as Region Skåne and Skånetrafiken. To investigate
what effect the ESS is expected to have on the traffic system,
PwC has used commuting statistics from Statistics Sweden,
SCB, and simulated what effect the ESS would have on these
1.3 Questions and time perspective
Vision
The overriding question for the study is: What are the possible
and likely effects on regional development of the building of
the ESS given certain strategic and visionary aims? This question has been broken down in the following components:
Facts
Vision
Facts
T
WIL
HE
L-
L
PO
ITIC
S!
f What will be the direct effects of the ESS on the region?
f What indirect and dynamic effects can be expected to arise
seen in a more general growth perspective?
Figure 2. Reality check.
17
The ESS and MAX IV
in cooperation
The efforts of the community
in cooperation
Growth
Science for
Society
Society for
Science
Figure 3. Growth through cooperation between the facility and the community.
– Between the ESS and MAX IV and their customers and partners in the form of scientists from other
universities and the business community. This will be
about strategic business planning and implementation.
The analysis of the questions above has been based on the following time windows:
f Up to the spring of 2009
Period of preparing to make decisions and negotiations.
The focus here is on building alliances and relationships
coupled to a vision and the ability to realise it. As well as
negotiations with the governments and representatives of
other countries about financing including ‘in-kind contributions’ as well as organising.
f The building process 2011–2018:
The same process continues here as during 2009–2011
above at the same time as many new players in the region
begin to position themselves in a new and focused way.
f Starting up (2018–2020) and running as well as continual development of the facility (2020–2040):
This is about delivering the added value at all levels that
were promised in earlier plans, programmes and visions in
the form of research results and benefits to society. It also
means the ability to present the science-based society of the
future as a dynamic creator of growth.
f The period 2009–2011
From the announcement that the ESS has been allocated
to Lund until building starts (2011). The building of MAX
IV is expected to take four years from the start at the end
of 2009 or beginning of 2010. The first research results are
expected to come from MAX IV in 2013–2014.
During this period the work will primarily consist of
strategic development between the players in Skåne and the
Öresund Region from two perspectives:
– Between the public sector, the ESS, MAX IV and various partners. This will mainly be about upgrading the
infrastructure and services.
Region
Dialogue
Create prototypes
Renewal
University
Private sector
Municipal and
regional
leadership
Associations
not-for-profit
sector
Enthusiastic
citizens
Figure 4. Penta Helix.
18
Enable
Supportive
Open-mindedness
Social capital
Human and
intellectual capital
Welfare capital
Tourist and
visitor capital
Infrastructure
capital
Financial
capital
Environmental
and natural
resources capital
Trade and
industry capital
Figure 5. Types of resources.
Democracy and
citizen capital
Cultural and
experience capital
1.4 Strategic perspective
Strategic types of resources
An important basis for the analysis is the total resources within the territory. Classic growth theory emphasises financial
capital’s significance for growth. In this report we believe that
a wider perspective is necessary. The types of resources such
as intellectual capital, infrastructure capital, the arts and the
environment have to be taken into account in order to achieve
balanced growth, which in practice means that the various
types of resources can be seen as equally important for sustainable regional development and thereby balance one another.
This does not mean that financial capital is unimportant; on
one hand it is a basic premise for the other capitals to be able
to operate (which is why the other capitals are in the frame for
the financial in the figure above) while the other capitals on
the other hand are the creators of the conditions for economic
and financial growth. The reasoning behind this is shown in
figure 5.
Penta Helix
In the analysis of the ESS project’s effects on regional development we need to look at several different sectors in society. This
means that the analysis is based on a development that includes
the research community, the business community, voluntary
organisations and the people. The analysis assumes that the
leadership in the municipalities/region takes responsibility for
developments within the geographical area (the territory) and
thereby facilitates, supports and develops the conditions for the
contribution to the development of the sectors of the community mentioned. This is accomplished through the municipalities/region methods for creative dialogue and participation,
Penta Helix.5 See figure 4.
This model forms one of the foundations for the reports
various qualitative sections and recurs in the questionnaire’s
analysis of sectors and stakeholders.
5 PricewaterhouseCoopers 2005, Cities of the Future – global competition, local
leadership.
19
Territorial layers ...
· Lund
· Skåne
· Sweden
Lund
· Öresund Region
· Northern Europe
Skåne
· EU
Sweden
· Global
Öresund Region
Northern Europe
EU
Global
Figure 6. Interactive geographical layers.
f Territorial visions (often based on integrated sectors and/or
business visions).
Cooperating layers
Our analysis is based on the effects of the ESS facility on
regional development in Skåne. To see the context and appreciate the structure for the continued reasoning, the ESS
question should however be seen in a wider perspective in the
international Öresund Region with Denmark and Northern
Germany as natural points of contact.
It could be said that the geographical perspective forms
a number of interactive layers where the first layer creates the
conditions for the next layer and so on. At the heart of the
model is the facility itself in Lund after which comes Skåne and
so on. This is shown in figure 6.
f Creativity and transparency.
f Leadership that dares to work together in new constellations – internally/externally, nationally/internationally.
f ‘Intelligent’ risk capital, capital with skills, that is to say
great knowledge and relationship capital.
In summary, an integrated system where the various parts (idea,
product, service, financing, production, market, development
etc.) are linked together.
The commission from Region Skåne does not include holding extensive discussions on the origins and development of
innovation systems but is rather to point out the importance of
upgrading and renewing existing innovation systems based on
available discussions (where there is in practice great consensus
around the approach of Triple Helix, Helix Lund etc.) aimed at
achieving better functionality with growth as the result.
1.5 Innovation systems
One interesting perspective is the relationship between economic development and the existence of innovation systems.
All development assumes change but change does not guarantee development. The most important factor for economic development is renewal, exchange of ideas and innovations. The
process from idea to commercialised ‘reality’ is however long
and many players have to interact in a complex process. To
create innovation systems that are as good as possible requires
an ongoing, open process between the various players in society
whose contributions from various strategic types of resources
(see above) are decisive. In practice this is about integrating
figures 5 and 6 into an exciting and flexible matrix (figure 7)
which creates good conditions for a continually ongoing process of renewal. For these types of processes to work requires
such things as:
1.6 Uncertainty factors that can be influenced
To answer the questions in Chapter 1.3, a degree of clarity has
to be brought to what degree the ESS project has been and/or
is discounted in present scenarios and growth prognoses.6 We
do not believe that the ESS has been included to any great
extent in previous analyses.
6 See for example Öresundsregionen 2025, Region Skåne, 2008 and
Öresundsregionen 2045, Region Skåne 2007.
20
1.7 Uncertainty factors that cannot be
influenced
Further uncertainty factors include:
f Depth and acceptance of the vision and final objectives in
practice.
f Global and national economic growth over time.
f To what extent the ESS facility and its organisation and
management succeed within strategic areas such as technical functionality, intellectual interpretation of the concept,
acquiring skills, marketing acceptance within the research
community, commercialisation of innovations, strategic
partnerships, results and demands from the business community.
We believe that the ESS facility will be a positive force in regional development even if that which shouldn’t happen does,
that is to say a major recession. The ESS should be able to put a
brake on such an event.
1.8 Disposition
Part I forms the quantitative part and deals with growth questions using history as a tool to look into the future from a
historical perspective. After this the effects that the ESS can
have on growth in Skåne and various sectors of the community
are studied.
Part II forms the qualitative part and starts with a presentation of experiences gained from similar facilities around the
world. There then follows an analysis of the situation in the
world which is interwoven with future scenarios and visions of
the ESS, and questions about what is required in the future in
the coming process. Contributions have continually been taken
from the questionnaire, interviews, seminars and PwC’s experiences from global experiences of megaprojects.
Each part is summarised at the end with an analysis section.
In the analysis section of the qualitative part there is also a
proposal for a future strategic agenda.
f To what extent politics and society, and other players
succeed in creating the conditions for attractiveness from
the point of view of homes, service, infrastructure and
recreation within the framework for sustainable growth
and development.
f The joint ability of individuals, companies and organisations
for creativity, involvement and responsible leadership.
f How players in the region succeed on the whole in dealing with well-known success factors such as not taking
prestige into account and generosity connected with sector,
industry, national, institutional regional and municipal
boundaries.
Public players
(municipalities
and regions)
Private sector
The University
Associations
Enthusiastic
citizens
‘In between
space/Interface’
s
nes
er
usi eated
b
eth
g
w s cr
e
to
N or
t
ng
sec
rki
es
o
w
ero
h
s
e
w
rs
Ne
urc
ste
so
clu
e
n
r
w
Ne
atio
nd
sa
nov
r
n
i
o
d
ct
ope em
Se
vel syst
e
D
Figure 7. Sectors and resources working together. Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers.
21
Social capital
Infrastructure
capital
Envionmental
and natural
resources capital
Human and
intellectual
capital
Democracy and
citizen capital
Cultural and
experinece
capital
Trade and
industry capital
Tourist and
visitor capital
Welfare capital
Leadership
Financial
capital
What will cooperative structures look like in the future? Value matrix
2. What are the ESS and MAX IV?
SUMMARY OF THE CHAPTER:
The aim is to make the European Spallation Source (ESS) the world’s foremost
facility for material research and life sciences where neutrons are to be used for
examining various materials at the atomic level from proteins and plastics to molecules and medicines.
Scientists use neutrons today in a wide range of research fields such as
chemistry, biology, engineering, archaeology, environmental science, energy technology and life sciences. The ESS will also make it possible for scientists to acquire
knowledge that they cannot get today. In contrast to existing neutron sources, the
ESS will primarily be a far more powerful tool for the life sciences.
The ESS is a European research project. ESS Scandinavia is in charge of promoting the proposal to build the ESS in Lund. Lund is competing with Bilbao in the Spanish
Basque province and Debrecen in eastern Hungary to act as host for the ESS.
The MAX-lab in Lund is a Swedish national laboratory that supports three welldefined fields of research – accelerator physics, the application of synchrotron
radiation and nuclear physics using energy-rich electrons. A fourth generation of this
research facility – MAX IV – is planned in Lund.
If MAX IV is built it will be the synchrotron radiation facility with the highest performance in the world. It will make possible new advances in a wide range of fields
such as biomedicine, medicine, materials science, nanotechnology, energy research,
geology and environmental science.
The ESS and MAX IV complement one another in the study of various materials
and can therefore create significant synergy effects. Together the ESS and MAX
IV will form a world leading centre for material research and become a hub in the
European research infrastructure.
22
2.1 What is the ESS?7
Neutrons are used today by scientists in a wide variety of fields
– chemistry, biology, engineering, archaeology, environmental
technology, energy, life sciences.
Neutrons have been used to find advanced solutions to
materials that are found in many objects around us – cell
phones, consumer products, packaging, detergents, aircraft
wings and car engines. They have been used to make processes
for cleaning water and soil, and to make environment-friendly
paints. With them it is possible to investigate fragile samples,
for example living cells that would otherwise be destroyed if
examined with other methods like X-rays. Similar techniques
are X-rays, lasers and synchrotron radiation that is used at the
MAX IV laboratory.
Research
The European Spallation Source (ESS) is planned to be a world
leader for material research and life sciences where neutrons
are to be used to screen a wide range of materials from proteins
and plastics to medicines and molecules at the atomic level.
We can see many objects with the naked eye or a microscope just as long as there is enough light. But scientists who
are studying the smallest components – molecules and atoms
– in the world around us need both larger microscopes and
stronger light. Neutrons are one of the tools that scientists can
use instead of light to ‘look’ into the atoms of various materials
to understand how they are constructed.
Cosmetics
LED display
TiO2 Nano particles
Photonic materials
Digital camera
CCD chip
Glasses
Artificial lenses
Optic materials
Photonic polyms
Cell phone
SWA structures
Bicycle frame
Carbon polymers
Artificial hip
Pacemaker
Bio compatible fibres
Lithium batteries
Figure 8. Examples of what neutron research has meant for materials research.
7 This text is in principle solely taken from ESS Scandinavia’s material.
23
Decision-making process and organisation
The ESS is a European research project but there is no predetermined process for how Europe is going to make a decision
on large-scale research facilities like the ESS. It is not the EU
that decides when and where the ESS is to be built.
The decision on what is to be built, how it is to be financed
and where it is to be located is made by negotiations at government level between a host country and the countries that
intend to use the facility. The Swedish government is involved
in such negotiations with around 15 European governments.
The head of the negotiating team is Allan Larsson who was
appointed by the government and is Chairman of the Board of
Lund University and a former finance minister.
ESS Scandinavia is responsible for the proposal to build
the ESS in Lund. The secretariat was set up at Lund University
in 2007 on the instruction of the Swedish government. Its
commission consists of developing the technical and scientific
design of the ESS, producing costings for the project, supporting the international negotiations and running the approval
process. Lund is competing with Bilbao in the Spanish Basque
province and Debrecen in eastern Hungary.
Do we need the ESS?
For many years Europe has been the world leader in neutron
research. One reason is that European scientists have access to
a large number of neutron sources. But many of the facilities have been running for several decades and around 2020 a
number will be shut down.
The USA’s new facility was commissioned in 2006 and Japan’s was completed in 2008. No decision has as yet been made
about a European facility and it takes about ten years from
decision to when such a facility comes on line.
Future research opportunities
The ESS will also make it possible for scientists to acquire
knowledge that is impossible today. Unlike existing neutron
sources, the ESS will primarily be used as a more powerful tool
for life sciences. The ESS is expected to contribute to knowledge on things like:
f The new proteins that are expected to be a major part of
tomorrow’s medicines.
f How human DNA functions in living cells.
f New medical implants that are tolerated better by the body.
Who pays?
The ESS will be a jointly financed European research facility.
Building the ESS in Lund will cost around SEK 13 billion while
the running costs are estimated to be SEK 1 billion per year
during its approximately 40-year life. Running down will cost
about SEK 3 billion, money that is put aside during the time it
is operating. All costs are at 2007/2008 prices.
The financing of a research facility like the ESS is determined in negotiations between the countries who will be users.
The costs are allocated in proportion to each country’s GNP
and the research time they use. The host country however usually pays a higher proportion as the facility gives major financial
advantages. At a similar facility in France, 75 per cent of orders
during operation go to suppliers in the surrounding region.
Sweden has therefore promised to pay 30 per cent of the investment costs until the facility starts operating and ten per cent
of the running costs. This is equivalent to SEK 3–4 billion for
construction and SEK 100 million per year for running costs.
f How gene therapy can cure serious virus infections.
f How scientists can better understand many of the illnesses
for which there are no cures today.
f How transport can be made more effective and less energy
demanding.
f How catalysts can be improved.
f Superconductors for energy transmission without losses.
f Tailor-made materials with nano techniques.
f How consumer products such as detergents and cosmetics
can be improved and made more environmental friendly.
f How batteries can be improved for example for electric cars.
f How biofuels can be made from agricultural waste instead
of from cereals.
f Understand the powerful greenhouse gas methane which is
primarily bound up on the sea bed but which is a tremendous climate threat and an enormous energy reserve.
Approval process
If the ESS is to be built in Sweden, approval is required from
a number of authorities. The proposal has to checked against a
number of different laws that lay down what risk assessments
f How historical objects like fossils, coins and glass can be
understood and how valuable works of art can be preserved
for the future.
24
Location
It is planned to build the ESS in north-eastern Lund close to
the new Brunnshög district. The ESS will become a part of the
belt of land with a high concentration of research and development that stretches from the University in the city centre out
to the ESS. The past few decades has seen the Lund University
Faculty of Engineering, the MAX-lab, the Ideon Science Park
and a number of multinational, hi-tech companies grow and
flourish here. The area required for the ESS is around 100 hectares, equivalent to a large shopping mall or less than 0.2 per
cent of the agricultural land worked on the plain between Lund
and Helsingborg. When the ESS is closed down in 40 years,
the land will be restored.
and investigations need to carried out as well as how these
should be done. A fundamental requirement is that the facility
must satisfy both national and international environmental and
safety demands.
Planning permission according to building legislation is
granted by the local council. A voluntary approval inquiry according to environmental legislation should be carried out for
all of the work at the ESS. Public consultation at the local level
should take place before the examination and production of a
report describing the environmental impact. Examination of
application according to radiation and environmental legislation is carried out by the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority
and the Environmental Court in Växjö, Sweden, respectively.
A satisfactory approval enquiry is a premise for the Swedish
government’s offer to be host to the ESS in Lund. This process
is expected to take 2½–3 years.
MAX IV
SCIENCE CITY
Technology and research laboratories
Visitors’ centre
Target station
Travel terminal
To Lund C: 10 mins.
To Copenhagen Airport: 30 mins.
Linear accelerator
Neutron source
Figure 9. Overview of the location of the ESS and MAX IV in north-eastern Lund.
25
f Energy-saving measures and energy-efficient buildings
reduce the energy requirements by up to 20 per cent.
Technology, environment and safety
Scientists need neutrons to study various materials. Unlike
earlier facilities, the ESS is not based on a nuclear reactor to
produce the neutrons. Instead, the modern facilities are based
on particle accelerators, partly for environmental and safety
reasons, partly because this technique produces more neutrons.
The more neutrons, the better the research results. The largest number of neutrons is to be found in heavy metals which
are therefore used as the target material. When high-speed protons penetrate the target material’s atoms, these emit neutrons,
a process called spallation. The target material can be lead,
lead/bismuth, mercury or tantalum. The choice depends on the
characteristics of the materials combined with their environmental impact. In all, the facility will require 1–2 cubic metres
of target material. Inside the facility this is enclosed in several
containments. The target material will not need to be changed
during the life of the facility.
When the neutrons are released, ionising radiation is
created in the target material. The levels are however so low
that the staff do not need protective clothing. The radiation
dose from the ESS to the surroundings will be in the order of
one hundredth of the natural background radiation (about
4 millisieverts per year in Sweden). In other words, the ESS
does not contain any nuclear fuel and the spallation that takes
place cannot be compared with the process in a nuclear reactor.
A complete and comprehensive approval enquiry will take
place according to environmental and radiation legislation. A
comprehensive report describing the environmental impact will
identify the direct and indirect effects of the ESS on the environment and public health. It will also include a comprehensive risk
analysis of the work. The conditions for running the ESS will be
laid down in the permit that is granted according to the environmental and radiation legislation. The conditions will include the
localisation and extent of the work as well as detailed questions
concerning the effects on the environment and safety.
Parallel with the permit process technical, preparations and
adaptation of the facility’s design specific to the conditions in
Lund are now underway. Planning is expected to start around
2011. The first neutrons can then be produced in 2018/2019 and
the facility completely up and running in 2023.
A particle accelerator like the ESS requires a lot of electricity, around 40 MW which is equivalent to a paper mill. The
ESS will be run carbon-dioxide neutral and as energy efficient
as possible. The aim is to establish the world’s first climateneutral research centre. This will be accomplished through a
three-pronged energy strategy:
f 60 per cent of waste heat is to be reused in Lund’s district
heating system.
Apart from major environmental gains, this energy strategy also
means significantly lower running costs.
The ESS will also be an important support in scientists’ efforts to produce new solutions with less environmental impact
and completely new techniques. With neutrons they can:
f Study hydrogen atoms in detail and thereby develop the
technology required for hydrogen-driven fuel cells which
will contribute to reducing the emission of greenhouse
gases such as carbon dioxide.
f Look into a motor while it is running and thereby develop
lighter and more fuel-efficient vehicles through more efficient combustion and lubrication in the motor.
f Make chemical processes more efficient and thereby develop such things as the cleaning of polluted soil and drinking
water, major problems in the Third World.
f Develop more environment-friendly plastics, packaging
and materials that consume less energy.
2.2 What are the MAX-lab and MAX IV?
The MAX-lab in Lund is a national Swedish laboratory studying synchrotron radiation. Research is also carried out at the
MAX-lab into accelerator physics and a branch of nuclear
physics that uses energy-rich electrons. The MAX-lab is
Sweden’s only synchrotron radiation laboratory. Of the fifty or
so synchrotron radiation facilities that exist in the world, the
MAX-lab is among the best. About 50 per cent of the MAXlab’s researchers come from Sweden. The majority come from
other parts of the country and represent both the academic
and industrial worlds. This makes Lund a meeting place for a
large number of national and international scientists. The work
at the MAX-lab has expanded rapidly since the start and at
present the facility is used by over 700 scientists a year.
As a continuation of the developments that have taken place
at the MAX-lab, there is a proposal that the next generation’s
synchrotron radiation facility is built – MAX IV. This proposal
is based on a number of innovative solutions that have been
produced at the MAX-lab and by Swedish companies. If MAX
IV is built it will be the most powerful synchrotron radiation
facility in the world. MAX IV will make possible new advances
in a wide range of areas such as biomedicine, medicine, material technology, nanotechnology, energy research, geology and
environmental science.
f All electricity is to come from sources of renewably energy
such as wind power or bio-energy.
26
2.3 Why do these facilities belong together?
aim of obtaining 50 per cent of the building costs and at least
20 per cent of the running costs from the region, including the
Swedish and Danish contributions. During the spring of 2009
it is expected that a final political decision will be taken by the
Swedish and Danish governments. The ESS in Lund has also
concluded agreements with several leading research institutes
such as the SNS in the USA and CERN in Switzerland. Parallel
with the negotiations, an independent expert group has carried
out an evaluation of the proposals from the three countries,
that is to say Hungary, Spain and Sweden. During the autumn
of 2008, the countries that are not competing for the ESS met
to discuss where the ESS should be built. A decision on this is
expected during the first half of 2009. After the site decision,
the technical design of the ESS can be financed as a joint
European effort.
Since the spring of 2008 there has been an exhibition about
the ESS that highlights ESS Scandinavia’s slogan Science for
Society, and shows the opportunities for the ESS to contribute
to the common good and research through material research.
Together the ESS and the MAX IV will create a centre that is
a world leader in material science. The ESS will be the world’s
most modern and powerful neutron source. It will provide
scientists with unique information that is impossible to obtain
with other techniques. As instruments become better, researchers require more varied techniques that complement one
another. Today’s most prominent neutron sources are therefore
located near synchrotron radiation facilities as in places like
Oxford, Grenoble and Zurich.
That makes Lund as a location extra advantageous. As close
neighbour, the ESS would have the MAX IV synchrotron
radiation facility. Synchrotron radiation, which is extremely intensive X-rays, provides researchers with a complementary tool
for investigating more dimensions of the interior of a material.
The ESS and MAX IV complement each other in the study
of various materials and thereby create significant synergy effects.
Having two complementary facilities close to one another
will in all likelihood create major synergy effects for the research carried out at both facilities. Two world-leading facilities
should together create a valuable research environment and
form a hub in the European research infrastructure.
2.4 How does the negotiation process for
the ESS work?
At the start of 2007 the Swedish government offered to host
the ESS. It was the starting gun for negotiations with other
European countries. The negotiations have been divided into
four parts that have frequently been conducted in parallel:
f Phase 1: information and consultations. Completed
October 2007.
f Phase 2: consultations about technology with European
research institutes.
f Phase 3: creation of alliances.
f Phase 4: creation of alliances and financing.
Today ESS Scandinavia has formal approval for building the
ESS in Lund from five governments apart from the Swedish
– Denmark, Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Negotiations with other governments are on their way. During the
autumn of 2008 negotiations with Denmark have resulted in
an preliminary agreement that the two countries will share
being hosts to the ESS. This means that invitations to other
European countries are now presented as from a joint SwedishDanish project. This preliminary agreement means continued
development of the Nordic-Baltic States ESS platform with the
27
PART I – QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
3. Growth in the Öresund Region, Skåne and Lund
SUMMARY OF THE CHAPTER:
rounding communities. These effects can be seen in the
The quantitative analysis should describe the effects of
statistics.
building the ESS facility in Lund on the various sectors.
A large market has a better chance of attracting com-
For a number of these sectors, the starting point is,
petencies, a critical factor for many businesses. It is for
in what way will the ESS affect the innovation climate,
this reason that many companies choose to locate where
economic growth and employment. Other sectors are
it is easier to attract the skills needed; in other locations it
more concerned with what will be required with respect to
might not even be possible.
functionality and attractiveness.
The Öresund Region is well qualified to become a fully
Our time frame is to set our sights on 2020 with
integrated commuter area. In Skåne, the greater part of
2040 on the horizon. To get a better understanding of
the growth is in the local Malmö/Lund labour market – this
what we are looking at, if we turn the clock back to 1976
is almost all of West Skåne. One condition for growth re-
we would be setting our sights on 1988 with 2008 on the
lated to the ESS to benefit the whole region is that Skåne
horizon.
has a good infrastructure that extends over the whole
Growth in Sweden and Denmark is concentrated in
region. If such an infrastructure does not exist, the growth
increasingly larger regions and functional regions expand.
associated with the ESS will not affect areas outside West
Being part of a larger cluster does not only increase the
Skåne.
growth of the principal municipality but also for sur-
30
The quantitative analysis is primarily done in three stages. The
basis is the historical growth pattern of the region and a future
growth forecast for the whole region without including the
effects of the ESS. Using this, the anticipated effects of the ESS
on primarily growth in various sectors, including the housing
market and infrastructure, are studied.
Over and above this, what nobody believed could ever happen has happened, a global finance crisis. This fact is unlikely
to have any marked affect on life in 2040 and the long-term
decisions that are now being taken, but, in the short-term, the
establishment of the ESS facility will be even more important
for the region.
Although it is difficult to make predictions, the link between
historical and future events allows us to put forward reasonable
scenarios. What appear to be small changes in long-term growth
can have a considerable effect on the construction of housing
and the infrastructure. Figure 10 describes historical variations in
GRP8 for the Öresund Region as a whole as well as for the Danish and Swedish sectors of the region independently.
Functioning economic regions are primarily commuting
regions, that is to say regions where people both live and work.
Commuting region residents can change their job, employer
and business without moving home and employers can relocate
within the region and still have access to the same workforce.
The key message in what is now referred to as the ‘new
economic geography’9 is that urban economies are the power
house of economic growth and that large regions grow faster
than small in real terms. In Sweden and Denmark this means
that growth is concentrated in ever larger regions and that the
functional regions grow.
3.1 Regional development
Our timeframe is to set our sights on 2020 with 2040 on the
horizon. To get a better understanding of what we are looking
at, if we turn the clock back to 1976 we would be setting our
sights on 1988 with 2008 on the horizon. Important historical
facts during those years include an oil crisis, a financial crisis,
improved EU collaboration, the fall of the Berlin Wall, a global
IT revolution and the opening of the Öresund Link and, in
consequence, a marked upswing in integration throughout the
Öresund Region. Other milestones include Malmö’s transition
from an industrial city to a knowledge and service industry
centre, the marked growth of LTH (Lund University Faculty of
Engineering) and MAX-lab (National Laboratory for Synchrotron Radiation in Sweden), the establishment and development
of the Ideon Science Park and the decision to build the, now
almost completed, City Tunnel under Malmö.
Variations in
GRP, %
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1996
1997
1998
GRP Öresund Region DK
1999
2000
2001
GRP Öresund Region SE
Figure 10. Variations in GRP in per cent. Source: Örestat.
2002
2003
2004
2005
GRP Öresund Region DK+SE
8 Gross regional product, GRP, is the regional equivalent to GNP measured
from the point of view of production, that is to say the value of all goods and
services produced in the region. The GRP of all the regions adds up to the GNP.
9 See for example NUTEK, “Storstäderna och ny ekonomisk geografi”,
http://www.nutek.se/sb/d/878/a/9471/
31
Local labour
market
Population
2007
Number of
municipalities in
the LLM
Annual growth
1995-2007
principal
municipality
Trading
area
Annual growth
2000-2007
principal
municipality
Trading
area
Annual
growth
1995-2007
LLM
Annual
growth
2000-2007
LLM
Stockholm–Solna
2 316 195
36
0.94
0.96
0.83
0.97
0.95
0.92
Malmö–Lund
1 026 770
27
1.12
0.60
1.13
0.89
0.74
0.95
Göteborg
964 440
17
0.79
0.69
0.79
0.83
0.74
0.81
Linköping
247 697
8
0.55
–0.30
0.75
–0.10
0.17
0.38
Västerås
226 536
7
0.65
–0.48
0.82
–0.14
0.17
0.42
Örebro
223 513
8
0.72
–0.38
0.7
–0.12
0.24
0.35
Jönköping
206 471
7
0.58
–0.22
0.79
0.06
0.25
0.49
Trollhättan–Vänersborg
198 483
9
0.28
–0.10
0.38
0.08
0.00
0.16
Skövde
177 645
10
0.13
–0.40
0.25
–0.04
–0.25
0.04
Kristianstad
176 785
6
0.38
–0.14
0.58
0.21
0.08
0.37
Karlstad
174 336
8
0.43
–0.53
0.58
–0.25
–0.09
0.14
Norrköping
169 352
4
0.19
–0.57
0.52
–0.36
–0.01
0.29
Gävle
154 604
5
0.19
–0.53
0.3
–0.20
–0.11
0.10
Borås
155 012
5
0.41
–0.31
0.59
–0.09
0.15
0.35
Luleå
150 490
4
0.24
–0.33
0.3
–0.12
–0.06
0.08
Falun–Borlänge
150 308
6
0.02
–0.21
0.21
0.07
–0.13
0.12
Eskilstuna
150 778
4
0.36
–0.41
0.78
–0.17
0.06
0.41
Umeå
142 610
6
0.82
–0.78
0.96
–0.65
0.44
0.60
Sundsvall
137 381
3
0.00
–0.61
0.22
–0.22
–0.19
0.08
Växjö
128 492
5
0.75
–0.73
1.06
–0.44
0.15
0.47
Kalmar
112 850
5
0.43
–0.47
0.53
–0.18
0.01
0.20
Halmstad
112 916
2
0.60
0.02
0.74
0.28
0.48
0.64
Östersund
103 559
6
–0.15
–0.63
0.11
–0.34
–0.36
–0.09
Karlskrona
90 829
3
0.24
–0.22
0.41
–0.07
0.09
0.26
Skellefteå
76 470
2
–0.37
–1.29
–0.08
–0.97
–0.42
–0.13
Lidköping–Götene
72 475
4
0.22
–0.44
0.37
–0.08
–0.10
0.15
Nyköping–Oxelösund
61 908
2
0.34
–0.44
0.49
0.37
0.19
0.49
Gotland
57 122
1
–0.14
–
–0.05
–
–0.14
–0.05
Varberg
56 114
1
0.65
–
0.91
–
0.65
0.91
Örnsköldsvik
55 284
1
–0.43
–
–0.11
–
–0.43
–0.11
Gislaved
49 244
3
–0.14
–0.44
–0.51
–0.59
–0.26
–0.55
Table 1. Population growth in the Malmö–Lund local labour market takes place in 27 municipalities including Helsingborg.
Sources: SCB adapted by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
32
By studying larger regions, and by comparing them with smaller regions, it appears that they have a higher rate of growth
with respect to population, wages and young adults. It also appears that they have a higher new company start-up rate, lower
unemployment, a greater intensity of training/education, more
choices, higher dwelling prices, a greater number of homes
under construction etc. As we can see in figures 11 and 12, the
largest population growths have been in metropolitan areas. We
can also see that the Malmö commuter region has experienced
the greatest increase in population in the short time interval
2000–2007. A corresponding table with similar results can be
drawn using the other variables named in figure 11.
It appears that access to a large labour market is attractive
to both companies and individuals. If it is also possible to build
attractive dwelling environments in and close to this labour
market, the attractiveness increases.
An inherent problem in this context is that the conventional ratios used to describe regional growth and development
are frequently national, even when they are related to a region,
and therefore do not measure the actual functionality of the
Öresund Region as an international and ‘intelligent region’.10
A future requirement is the development of a new map and
new Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and navigation points
so that growth in international regions can be measured in a
smarter and more relevant way.
In the long term, the conditions for making the Öresund Region into an integrated commuter region are good. Most of the
growth in the labour market in Skåne is in West Skåne in the
Malmö and Lund regions; if growth is to be achieved throughout Skåne, the Skåne labour market must have access to an
enlarged and well-developed infrastructure. If this is not done
then there is a risk that growth will remain in West Skåne.
Table 1 shows population growth in local labour markets
with over 50,000 residents in Sweden. The table shows growth
in the principal municipality, the principal municipality’s
trading area and the whole local labour market. It is interesting
to note that there is growth in the three largest metropolitan
areas including the trading area. In a number of commuter regions growth is limited to the principal municipality at the expense of the trading area. It also appears that in those instances
where a smaller, neighbouring municipality is a part of a larger
complex, growth is also experienced. The criteria appear to be
not only a well functioning infrastructure and being part of
a larger complex but also whether the community is part of a
cooperating or sectorised society.
Some business sectors in certain markets of a given size can
benefit from economies of scale. If the market grows because,
for example, the region grows, then the economies of scale of
other business sectors may improve and the market grows even
further. The market reinforces its own growth. The size of the
region appears to affect both growth and its attractiveness. A
large market is better equipped to attract skills and skills are
a critical factor for many business sectors and for this reason
many companies choose to establish their businesses where it is
either easier, or indeed possible, to attract the required skills.
10 We have used C. Vargas and L. Edvinsson’s definition of an intelligent
region: Social renewal in a creative way, based on social intelligence, consciousness,
volunteering and digital with collective self governance.
33
0
–0.2
–0.4
34
Norrköping
Trollhättan-Vänersborg
Kalmar
Eskilstuna
Kristianstad
Karlskrona
Växjö
Borås
Västerås
Linköping
Nyköping-Oxelösund
Örebro
Jönköping
Umeå
0.2
0.4
–0.6
Figure 12. Annual population growth 1995-2007 in local labour markets with over 50,000 residents. Source: SCB.
Örnsköldsvik
Skellefteå
Östersund
Skövde
Sundsvall
Luleå
Gävle
Falun-Borlänge
Karlstad
Lidköping-Götene
Trollhättan-Vänersborg
Kalmar
Karlskrona
Norrköping
Borås
Örebro
Kristianstad
Linköping
Eskilstuna
Västerås
Nyköping-Oxelösund
Växjö
Jönköping
Umeå
Halmstad
Göteborg
Varberg
–0.6
Figure 11. Annual population growth 2000-2007 in local labour markets with over 50,000 residents. Source: SCB.
Annual population growth 1995–2007 in local labour markets with over 50,000 residents
1
0.8
0.6
Gislaved
Skellefteå
Örnsköldsvik
Östersund
Gotland
0.2
Gislaved
Skövde
Sundsvall
Gotland
Falun-Borlänge
Gävle
Lidköping-Götene
Karlstad
Luleå
Population
growth, %
Halmstad
Varberg
Göteborg
Stockholm-Solna
–0.4
Malmö-Lund
–0.2
Malmö-Lund
0
Stockholm-Solna
Population
growth, %
Annual population growth 2000–2007 in the local labour markets with over 50,000 residents
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
3.2 Historical and future growth in the
Öresund Region without ESS
Population growth
The historical population growth of the Öresund Region,
Öresund SE (Skåne) and Öresund DK (Denmark) can be seen
in figure 13. The population of the whole region is expected to
grow from 3.6 million in 2007, to approximately 4 million by
2027. The increase is expected to be greater during the next
ten years and be more obvious in Skåne. The rate of increase is
also expected to decline in Skåne although this will be from a
greater number. This forecast is based on the assumption that
there will be a reduction in the number of people migrating
to Sweden as relatives and asylum seekers and that towards the
end of the forecast period there will be an aging population
and a more cautious projection for the period 2017–2027.11
The ‘Öresundsregionen 2045. Scenarier før trafik- og
byudvikling’12 has used two scenarios to project the population increase; Scenario Baseline and Scenario Competitiveness.
According to these scenarios, the population will increase
by 300,000 and 490,000 people respectively by 2045. If we
use these increases to project an average annual growth, the
Scenario Baseline projection results in a 0.6 per cent increase
per annum and the Scenario Competitiveness projection
results in a 0.9 per cent increase per annum up until 2045.
Our timeframe is to set our sights on 2020 with 2040 on the
horizon. The primary variables studied include population
growth, GRP development and employment. Knowing the
forecasted values of these variables allows us to narrow down
and estimate the effects on various sectors such as the construction of homes. This chapter of the report looks at historical
developments and forecasts with the aim of establishing a basic
scenario without the ESS and thereby makes assessments of the
possible effects of an ESS facility.
Growth has a direct effect on the price of housing, building and construction, the establishment of companies, infrastructure etc. and in turn, the infrastructure affects commuter
requirements, growth and the region’s enlargement. Just how
the size of growth influences each and every factor is uncertain, however these uncertainties can be isolated and reduced
through empirical analysis, pricing models and scenarios.
Some sectors of a market can experience sufficient economies of scale, this means that as the market continues to grow
or is affected by a substantial investment such as the ESS and
MAX IV, these sectors can enjoy the economies of scale and the
market can continue to grow; this is particularly so for research
and development intensive sectors.
11 Öresundsprognos, folkmängd 2007–2027, Region Skåne 2007.
12 Öresundsregionen 2045. Scenarier før trafik- og byudvikling, Region Skåne,
2007 (hereinafter called The Öresund Region 2045).
Population
growth, %
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Öresund Region SE + DK
Öresund Region DK
Scenario Competitiveness Skåne (average)
Öresund Region SE
Scenario Baseline Skåne (average)
Figure 13. Population growth in per cent. Source: Region Skåne, SCB, ÖRIB
compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
35
2039
2037
2035
2033
2031
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
0
Economic growth – GRP
The larger part of both Sweden’s and Denmark’s GNP is
generated in metropolitan areas and the growth in these areas
is also greater that in the two countries as a whole. Figure 14
shows the growth of the Öresund Region’s GRP (gross regional
product) as a whole and for Sweden (SE) and Denmark (DK).
Figure 14 also shows Sweden’s and Denmark’s GNP from the
beginning of the 1980s.
Skåne’s average annual GRP growth from 1993 to 2005 was
4.3 per cent, and the average annual GNP growth for Sweden
from 1981 to 2007 was 2.4 per cent. The Swedish National
Institute of Economic Research’s economic estimate for the
period leading up to 2020, indicates that growth in Skåne will
be in line with the long-term growth figures for Sweden as a
whole, i.e. approximately 2 per cent. In line with the reasoning for metropolitan areas described earlier in this chapter, it
appears likely that these regions will experience a higher level of
growth than the country as a whole.
Employment growth
The historical growth in employment in Öresund (DK+SE),
Öresund SE (Skåne) and Öresund DK is described in figure
15. From 1981 to 2006 the annual average growth in employment in Skåne was 1.21 per cent. The annual average growth for
Sweden from 1981–2007 was 0.23 per cent. The forecast of the
Swedish National Institute of Economic Research (Konjunkturinstitutet), for Sweden as a whole for the period up to 2020
indicates almost zero growth.
The Öresund Region 2045 has two employment increase
scenarios, Scenario Baseline and Scenario Competitiveness.
According to these scenarios, the number of employed by 2045
with grow by 250,000 and 550,000 respectively.
Based on today’s breakdown of total employed in Sweden
vis-à-vis Denmark in the Öresund Region, this would mean
a job increase in Skåne of 80,000 and 180,000 respectively
for each scenario. If we then rearrange the figures to give an
average annual growth in per cent, the Scenario Baseline gives
an average annual growth of 0.38 per cent and the Scenario
Competitiveness gives an average annual growth of 0.77 per
cent up until 2045.
36
GNP, %
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
–1
1981
0
–2
GNP Denmark
GNP Sweden
GRP Öresund DK
GRP Öresund SE
GRP Öresund DK+SE
Figure 14. Historical GNP and GRP in per cent and the Swedish National Institute of Economic Research’s forecast for Sweden.
Source: SCB, DS, Örestat, Konjunkturinstitutet compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Employment
growth, %
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
–2.00
–3.00
–4.00
–5.00
–6.00
–7.00
Denmark
Öresund Region DK
Scenario Competiveness
Sweden
Öresund Region SE
Figure 15. Employment growth in per cent and average future growth based on The Öresund Region 2045.
Source: SCB, DS, Örestat, ÖRIB compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
37
Öresund Region DK+SE
Scenario Baseline
2039
2037
2035
2033
2031
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
–1.00
1981
0.00
4. What do we know about the economic effects
of investments on research infrastructure?
SUMMARY OF THE CHAPTER:
The ITPS, ESS location assessment report for Lund
The siting of the ESS facility in Lund has been evaluated
states that the ESS will advance knowledge and boost
by the Swedish Institute for Growth Policy Studies (ITPS),
technical development estimates as the running costs
Research Policy Institute (FPI) and Copenhagen Business
will be seen as an increase in research and development
School.
(R&D) investments. Using these assumptions, ESS can
Even if the siting of the ESS results in many direct
assume a growth that would not otherwise have occur-
effects in the form of demand and employment during
red. However it is important in this context to remember
its construction and subsequent management, the re-
that these results require that the ESS really does make
port emphasises the importance for innovation work and
inroads into technological developments and that the
the opportunities to create a hi-tech business sector.
results are converted into productive businesses.
f What prerequisites are required if the ESS facility is to
create agglomeration advantages for the Öresund Region
and be an important step in the creation of an attractive
scientific centre that encourages new investments and
companies?
The siting of the ESS in Lund has been evaluated by the
Swedish Institute for Growth Policy Studies,13 Research Policy
Institute14 and Copenhagen Business School.15 Our role has
primarily been directed at assessing the effects of the ESS
facility on various sectors including the housing market, the
infrastructure etc. An important point of departure has been
what effects the ESS will have on growth in the region. The
supporting documentation for the results can be found in these
reports and it is this documentation that is used as the basis of
this chapter.
Even if the siting of the ESS facility results in a number
of direct effects with respect to an increase in demand and
employment during construction and the management of the
facility, the reports emphasise the importance for innovative
action and the potential opportunity to establish new hi-tech
companies. This chapter highlights a number of important
conclusions taken from the aforementioned reports.
These two points point out that the focus should be on longterm, dynamic effects of the localisation. However it is in the
very nature of the matter that the long-term, dynamic effects
are extraordinarily difficult to define with acceptable precision.
The Swedish Institute for Growth Policy Studies’, ESS
location assessment report for Lund states that the ESS will
advance knowledge and boost technical development estimates
as the running costs will be seen as an increase in research and
development (R&D) investments. The Swedish Institute for
Growth Policy Studies also refers to a study (Guellac, 2004)
where the elasticity estimates for R&D investments are linked
to the total productivity factor.
If these estimates are seen as applicable for Sweden or
the region, they can be used as a starting point for making a
quantitative estimate of the long-term effects. Using these suppositions, the ESS facility would be responsible for a one per
cent per annum increase in R&D capital during its lifetime;
this can be quantified as SEK 1 billion. The total Swedish R&D
expenditure is SEK 96 billion. It would also increase the TFP16
by 0.17 per cent and the GNP with a similar amount.
Another way of interpreting these figures is to say that if
the ESS facility results in a permanent increase in the TFP that
would not otherwise have been, then the economy would stay
on a growth rate that is higher than it would have been without
the facility, that is to say a higher GNP.
It is important to bear in mind that in this context the
result requires that the ESS facility really does promote technological developments and that the results are realised through
productive businesses. One example of this is highlighted in an
empirical study17 that shows that the elasticity of public R&D
is higher in countries where the proportion between private
sector R&D expenses and GNP are high. A high investment
by private industry in R&D helps ensure that the outcomes
of public financed R&D result in increased productivity. This
is very apparent in Sweden where the greater part of the total
investments in R&D is to be found in the private sector.
4.1 The Swedish Institute for Growth Policy
Studies
In their report (Lokalisering av ESS i Lund. Bedömning av
långsiktiga tillväxteffekter), the Swedish Institute for Growth
Policy Studies has pointed out that the growth effects of the
facility’s location are twofold: direct effects that are based on
the fact that a given amount of money is invested and thereby
creates an increase in the number of employment opportunities and demands for goods and services and a number of not
so easily measured effects that are created by the importance of
the facility for technological developments and the opportunities for competitive and hi-tech activities.
Although the direct effects are significant, it is important
to point out that it is the long-term and not so easily forecast
effects that are of most interest in discussions about the longterm effects of an ESS facility. These effects include system
effects of localisation on scientific and technical developments,
the creation and development of hi-tech companies and the
effects on competitiveness.
A coordinated evaluation of the growth effects of the ESS
should focus on:
f The long-term effects of the innovation system: How important is the ESS in the work to use new scientific knowledge to create technical solutions that can be translated
into new products and companies?
13 Vikström, Lokalisering av ESS i Lund. Bedömning av långsiktiga tillväxteffekter, Swedish Institute for Growth Policy Studies.
16 TFP (total-factor productivity). TFP is a variable which accounts for effects
in total output not caused by inputs. TFP is the increase in productivity that
affects all production factors and is that part that in traditional production
research is calculated as the output caused by technical change.
14 Hallonsten, et al. 2004, Impacts of Large scale Research Facilities – a SocioEconomic Analysis, School of Economics and Management, Lund University.
17 Guellec and Pottelsberghe, 2004, From R&D to productivity growth: Do the
institutional settings and the source of funds of R&D matter, Oxford Bulletin of
Economics and Statistics, vol. 66, no. 3.
15 Valentin, Larsen and Heineke, 2005, Neutrons and Innovations, Copenhagen Business School.
39
4.2 FPI – Research Policy Institute report
4.3 Copenhagen Business School
In the report Impacts of Large-Scale Research Facilities – A
Socio-Economic Analysis18 it is argued that there are both direct
and indirect effects. The direct effects are linked to construction and other economic activities associated with the facility,
purchase of goods and services, income from service industries,
transport etc.
According to the ‘juste retour’ principle, the sourcing of
goods and services is to be divided amongst contributing states
in line with their total contribution; however, in practice it is
the host market that benefits most. In other words the host
state benefits from a larger percentage of the total goods and
services purchased than their financial contribution warrants.
The report also argues that the most important effects are the
indirect effects. This is further explained by saying that the
knowledge-based economy tends to gel. Science, technology,
talent and entrepreneurship are all concentrated in regional
hubs. There is therefore a risk that those that do not manage
to attract these resources inevitably fall behind. This deduction
leads to two conclusions:
The importance of the ESS facility for Denmark is discussed
in the report Neutrons and Innovations19 and as with the FPI
report it emphasises the indirect effects as the most important
in the long term.
The report bases its conclusions on the argument that
scientific advances in fundamental research are important in
the work of finding technical solutions. Companies play an
important role in as far as they convert technical advances to
competitive advantages. The turning of scientific knowledge
into competitive advantages and creative solutions increases
when the players are integrated in one system. Such systems are
developed on a regional basis.
Both countries and regions vary in their ability to convert
scientific advances into economic growth; this is primarily as a
result of the following points:
f The nation’s ability to be innovative is dependent upon
the fact that there is such an agglomeration in place in the
country.
f Do university researchers, centres of higher education and
industrial R&D centres communicate and do they interface with each other?
f Agglomerations of this type come into existence as a result
of a series of investments. The ESS facility is one such
investment. The region that has this facility will become
more attractive and therefore act as a magnet for more
qualified businesses.
The ability and opportunity to promote new company startups is highlighted as an important system effect; in this respect
Denmark has many years of experience of commercialising
scientifically-based innovations.
f Is the level of research good enough?
f Are there companies that actively work to convert science
to technology and competitive products?
The report concludes that an investment in the ESS facility
would have many positive effects and strengthen the position
of the Nordic countries as a centre for international technical
development. Without the investment, the Nordic knowledgebased economy will be more vulnerable and risk losing out to
other hi-tech centres. Although the ESS is not the only major
research centre alternative that can strengthen the region’s
competitive edge it is, in truth, the only research centre that the
Nordic countries can lay claim to in the foreseeable future.
18 Hallonsten, et al 2004, Impacts of Large scale Research Facilities – a SocioEconomic Analysis, School of Economics and Management, Lund University.
19 Valentin, Larsen and Heineke, 2005, Neutrons and Innovations, Copenhagen
Business School.
40
41
5. ESS – the effects on growth
SUMMARY OF THE CHAPTER:
growth. These presuppose that the ESS facility will lead to
The growth effects of the ESS fall into two main catego-
the aforesaid positive long-term effects. In this case the
ries. The first is a direct result of financial investment that
ESS facility can facilitate a higher GRP growth in Skåne by
will create new job opportunities as well as a demand for
an average of 0.08 per cent per annum and an increase in
goods and services, and secondly a rather more difficult
employment by 700 people per annum in Skåne until 2040;
to estimate effect that is the result of the facility’s im-
this is over and above the forecast without the ESS facility.
portance for technological developments, the innovative
The effects of the ESS can be seen as small if one
climate and the possible spin-off effects.
considers that there are almost 550,000 people em-
In the estimates that have been made, the long-term
ployed in Skåne, but the effects can be seen as greater if
effects are considered to be the greatest and most deci-
we compare them with the average increase of employed
sive. If the ESS leads to long-term positive effects on the
persons which has been almost 7,000 persons per annum
innovation system, and the creation of technological solu-
during the last decade and just over 1,000 persons per
tions that can be recalculated as competitive companies
annum during the last 25 years. In the Base Scenario
and products, the effects of the facility can be relatively
we can see that the average increase without the ESS is
large. If this does not turn out to be the case, the effects
estimated to be 2,200 people, therefore we must add the
on the region’s growth will be marginal. In other words,
number of jobs created by the ESS to get a true figure,
it is of significant importance as to how the facility is
i.e. 2,900 people per annum.
received by the local communities.
A basic fact when estimating the effects of the ESS
is an assumption of how investments in R&D can lead to
42
In Chapter 3, we looked at historical figures as well as available
population forecasts and economic growth and employment
figures, and Chapter 4 describes what we know about the effects of this type of facility on growth. Our purpose now is to
use this material as a basis for a discussion about the possible
effects of an ESS facility on Skåne.
The Swedish Institute for Growth Policy Studies report covering the effects of siting the ESS facility in Lund suggests that
the facility will lead to increased knowledge and technical
developments and that the running costs will be considered as
an increase in R&D investments. The Institute makes reference
to a report where elasticity estimates for investments in R&D
take into account total factor productivity. If this is accepted,
then, during its lifetime, the ESS facility would increase its
R&D capital by one per cent per annum, that is SEK 1 billion
in relation to the total Swedish research expenditure of SEK
96 billion, and increase the TFP by 0.17 per cent and the GNP
with the same amount. We presume that this will be the same
for the GRP for Skåne.
A prerequisite for these assumptions to occur and the full
potential of the ESS realised is that the exchange of knowledge
and technology between researchers and industry works in
a manner that allows the new technology and knowledge to
be turned into new products and production processes. It is
only then that the expected effects of the ESS facility can be
achieved. If this does not occur, the risk is that the outcomes
of the enormous investment in the facility will be far fewer and
only have a marginal affect from a long-term perspective.
Our estimates are based on a growth Scenario Base for the
region and estimate the effects of the ESS facility over and
above the Scenario Base. The effects are the results of direct
investments and the multiplier effects they can cause as well as
the aforementioned spill-over effects.
5.1 Pre-construction period 2008–2011
It is fair to assume that the final decision about the siting of the
ESS facility in the Municipality of Lund will affect expectation values.20 The initial decisions concerning the acquisition
of the necessary land are affected by the general expectations of
growth in the region and municipality. The ESS facility can be
a positive trigger to acquire additional land in this geographically attractive area.
5.2 During construction 2011–2018
The cost for the ESS facility is budgeted at SEK 13 billion. This
can be seen in relationship to Skåne’s total GRP (gross regional
product) for 2005 which was SEK 312 billion. A large part of
this investment will benefit the region in the form of wages etc.
Figure 16 describes the anticipated construction and running
costs for the facility in Euros.
Although some of the facility equipment will be made
outside the region, we estimate that 30 per cent of the total
investment will be spent in the region and that this investment
will take the form described in the estimations made by ESS
Scandinavia, see figure 16. Over and above the effect of the direct investments, it is assumed that a multiplier effect will also
come into play; for example wages will be paid and benefit the
economies of other parts of the region. The latter means that
the effect of the investment in the facility will be greater than
the actual investment sum.
5.3 Long-term 2018–2040
Following the completion of the construction of the facility
there are primarily two factors that will affect growth in the
region; the first are the running costs, see figure 16, these costs
are estimated to be approximately SEK 1 billion per annum.
Although the second is more difficult to quantify, it is also the
most interesting in respect of the spin-off effects or spill-over;
in other words will the facility attract other companies to the
region to be close to the facility? This item was to some extent
discussed in Chapter 4.
20 These can include an increase in land values based on expectations of future
exploitation.
43
Figure 16. Investment costs over time. Source: The ESS Scandinavia
submission to the ESFRI Working Group on ESS siting, 2008-04-25.
GRP in Skåne with and without the ESS
The Scenario Base we have produced to describe growth in
Skåne, see figure 17, is based on the historical developments
and forecasts described in Chapter 3. In the long-term, the
Scenario Base GRP for Skåne agrees with the Swedish National
Institute of Economic Research’s growth forecast for Sweden,
that is to say two per cent.
Figure 17 also describes the direct and indirect effects of the
ESS facility as described in Chapter 4. The initial indications of
growth in the GRP can be seen in figure 16; however, as the investments are reduced after 2015, GRP growth will wane. From
this time, growth will be mirrored in the actual expenses for
running the facility but even more so from the effects that it is
believed will lead to an increase in knowledge and technological developments, the further development of hi-tech companies and the effects of competitiveness, and spill-over effects.
Figure 18 shows the Scenario Base Skåne and Scenario Base
Skåne with the ESS expressed as GRP in SEK billions. This
suggests that Skåne’s total GRP will be SEK 16 billion higher in
2040 than it would be without the ESS; i.e. SEK 664 billion as
opposed to SEK 648 billion. The accumulated sum then shows
that with the ESS, the GRP will be SEK 214 billion higher in
2040.
44
GRP
growth, %
0.025
0.024
0.023
0.022
0.021
0.02
0.019
0.018
0.017
0.016
0.015
0.014
0.013
0.012
0.011
GRP growth Base Skåne
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
0.01
GRP growth Base Skåne with ESS
Figure 17. GRP growth per cent. Source: SCB, Region Skåne, ITPS compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
GRP Skåne,
SEK billions
GRP Base Skåne
GRP Base Skåne with ESS
Figure 18. GRP Skåne, SEK billions. Source: SCB, Region Skåne, ITPS compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
45
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
700
680
660
640
620
600
580
560
540
520
500
480
460
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
Employment
growth, %
0.01
0.009
0.008
0.007
0.006
0.005
0.004
0.003
0.002
0.001
Employment growth Base Skåne
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
0
Employment growth Base Skåne with ESS
Figure 19. Employment growth in per cent. Source: SCB, Region Skåne, ITPS compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Total number
employed
660 000
640 000
620 000
600 000
580 000
560 000
540 000
520 000
500 000
480 000
460 000
440 000
420 000
Employed Base Skåne
Employed Base with ESS
Figure 20. Total number employed. Source: SCB, Region Skåne, ITPS compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
46
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
400 000
Number employed in Skåne with and without the ESS
Figure 19 shows the estimated Scenario Base for employment
growth in Skåne based on the historical development and
forecasts described in Chapter 3. In the long term employment
in Skåne is expected to grow in line with ÖRIB’s Scenario
Baseline; if this is converted to an annual average the result is
0.38 per cent per annum.
If we assume that 70 per cent of the GRP is made up of
remuneration we can estimate the effect of the ESS on employment by looking at the GRP. The increase in GRP is based on
an employment cost per person per year of SEK 500,000; this
is the same figure used by the Swedish Institute for Growth
Policy Studies and is in line with employment costs for salaried
people in private employment. The percentage change in employment is shown in figure 19.
The initial affects of employment growth seen in the GRP
are due to investments in the ESS facility. Effects following this
are, in part, caused by the ESS running costs but for the main
part by spill-over effects.
Scenario Base and Scenario Base with the ESS expressed as
the number of people employed can be seen in figure 20. In
Scenario Base, employment in Skåne increases by an average of
2,200 persons per annum during the period, whereas in Scenario Base with the ESS the increase would be 2,900 persons
per annum, that is to say approximately 700 persons more a
year because of the ESS facility. All in all this will mean that by
the year 2040 the ESS facility will have created approximately
23,000 jobs.
LTH has an annual turnover of about SEK 1.3 billion. ESS
Scandinavia states that this is in line with the expected running
costs of the ESS facility. LTH is one of Sweden’s few complete
institutes of technology.
The faculty offers undergraduates and graduates all the classic civil engineer programmes as well as new programmes, some
of which are unique to the University. In some areas the faculty
can claim to be a world leader, these areas include nanotechnology, combustion physics and biotechnics.
The Ideon Science Park was established in 1983 during a
period of heavy and basic industry factory closures such as shipbuilding and textile industries. It is arguable that an investment
of the type represented by the ESS facility is of equal importance now as those investments were then, particularly when
the general economic climate is in decline or, as now, when few
believed that a global financial crisis could be a reality.
Between 1983 and 1987, 50,000 m² of laboratory and office
space were built. The Science Park growth slowed dramatically
in the years leading up to 1996 due to a shortage of space but
when LM Ericsson, and 750 employees moved to new offices
on the Brunnshög site, Alfahuset was totally refurbished to
house small companies and the Science Park increased its
number of companies from 110 to 160 over a three-year period.
Today the Science Park houses approximately 250 companies
that together employ about 3,000 people; and property companies IKANO Fastighets AB and Wihlborgs intend to double
the current laboratory and office space to 200,000 m² within
the next ten years, this is an average of 10,000 m² per year.
Table 2 shows the number of people employed and the total
amount of laboratory/office space in Ideon today and an estimate
of those companies that have moved away from Ideon – as well
as to, the latter being companies that do not have their roots at
LTH. It is estimated that the total average growth figure per annum with respect to people employed and required office space
linked to Ideon is 430 and 12,000 m² respectively.
Over 700 companies have had offices in the Ideon Science
Park during the first 25 years. During this time, 76 per cent of
these companies had some form of meaningful contact with
Lund University. The survival rate has been high and during
the first 25 years only thirty companies, approximately 4 per
cent, have closed down.
5.4 LTH and Ideon – a realistic comparison
In order to make an acceptable comparison of what the ESS
facility can mean it is important to understand how important
LTH (Lund University Faculty of Engineering) and Ideon
(Ideon Science Park) are for Lund and Skåne. It also gives you
an opportunity to evaluate the estimations we have used earlier
in this Chapter.
LTH was established in 1961 and has been the Faculty of
Engineering at Lund University for a number of years. Approximately 7,000 students and 1,400 people work at LTH.
Two examples of commercial products that have been developed at LTH are Bluetooth and ink-jet printers.
Ideon
today
Total employed
Office space (m²)
Average
annual growth
Companies associated with Ideon
Average
annual growth
Total Ideon and companies
associated with Ideon
Total average
annual growth
3 000
120
5 916
308
8 916
428
100 000
4 000
153 900
8 006
253 900
12 006
Table 2. Ideon: total number employed and total number of m². Sony Ericsson and EMP account for 100,000 m² of those companies that have a link with Ideon.
Source: SCB compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
47
6. The effects of the ESS and growth
on various sectors
SUMMARY OF THE CHAPTER:
means a high traffic density. To cope with the increase
The effects of the ESS on the property market
in capacity, an extensive investment programme will be
Given earlier assumptions and expected effects on growth,
necessary. It involves for example investments in the E22,
the effect on the housing market should be an increase in
adding lanes to the E6 between Malmö and Helsingborg
demand of about 500 dwellings per year in Skåne. This can
as well as a fixed link between Helsingborg and Helsingør.
be seen against the light of the building of 3,500 dwellings
According to Skånetrafiken the annual increase in
the last ten years and nearly 4,700 during the last five. The
rail traffic will be six per cent per year until 2037. This
target in the regional development plan is that 5,000 new
means that there will be capacity problems on several
dwellings should be built per annum.
stretches of track and that further investments will be
An increase in the number of office workers means
required. Capacity increases on the Malmö–Lund line and
an increase in the demand for office space. If 50 per
Västkustbanan up the west coast, and high-speed tracks
cent of the total increase in fulltime jobs of over 700 per
will be needed and the Lund Link should be transferred to
year comes from office workers this means an increase
a track-bound city network.
in demand of around 7,000 m² per year because of the
Based on the assessment that 23,000 new fulltime
ESS. This can be compared with the requirements of the
jobs, on average 700 per year, are created in Skåne then
LTH – Lund University Faculty of Engineering – and Ideon
this means that, given that the transport system is expan-
of 12,000 m² per year.
ded at the rate required to cope with the increase in traffic
even without the ESS, the planned traffic system can cope
The effects of the ESS on the infrastructure
According to The Öresund Region 2045, road traffic is expected to increase by over 30 per cent up to 2045. This
with the increase in travelling generated by the ESS.
Building the ESS requires an efficient air transport service;
The effects of the ESS on the public services
a critical factor will be the availability of direct interconti-
The ESS could mean an increase of some 200 foreign
nental flights from the region.
children and adolescents. This creates a need to expand
The energy situation in Skåne is at present good. It
kindergartens and the international school as well as
is possible to meet the energy needs of the ESS without
agreements between the municipalities in Skåne. The
creating problems elsewhere.
region offers a wide choice of cultural events that in-
There is at present an efficient telecoms infrastruc-
crease as the region grows. It is important to retain and
ture in Skåne. Building the ESS should mean increasing
develop the arts which in this instance give a competitive
interest from various players in the sector to be present.
edge internationally.
The effects of the ESS on research and development
Building the ESS makes great demands on the community
in general to supply the facility with highly skilled scientists
and technicians. It is therefore of great importance to
increase the interest in technical education. Since there is
now an international market for students and researchers,
it is equally important to become one of the most attractive places to study and do research in order to retain
the newly qualified students in the country and to attract
students and scientists from the rest of the world.
49
In this Chapter we quantify the effects of the ESS on various
sectors. This covers the increasing demand for homes and offices, roads, schools etc.
dwellings has been very strong with an annual growth of about
ten per cent per year since 1996. The first two quarters of 2008
show a distinct decline in the trend and there are reasons to
believe that the recent financial crisis has caused prices to fall
further.
The basis of the estimate of demand for dwellings using
economic growth is an analysis over time of various variables.
These show that the price of dwellings can for the most part
be explained by economic growth, increased employment and
real interest rates. Figure 22 shows the model’s estimate using
the actual figures from 1980–2007 of these macro-variables. We
can see that the model gives a good estimate of the historical
results. Sufficiently good for us to be able to use the model
to estimate the effects of changes in these macro-variables on
dwelling prices. This is not a question of forecasts but of estimates giving different results of input data.
Based on the Base Scenario and Base Scenario with the
ESS, estimates of price development of housing can be made.
The estimates and actual results up to 2040 show that with the
assumptions of the effect of the ESS on growth the price of an
owner-occupied property would be SEK 40,000/m² instead of
SEK 36,000/m², that is to say SEK 4,000/m² higher (figure 22).
6.1 The property market
This section deals with the expected growth of the housing and
office space markets.
The economic growth in the Öresund Region is the basis
for the strong increase in for example house prices that has
taken place since 1996. The background is good economic
growth in Sweden and Denmark and the successful creation
of a regional government. Even if the local labour market in
Malmö–Lund has expanded because of investments in the infrastructure, there is still great potential in the possibility of full
integration of the whole Öresund Region and that all of Skåne
becomes a commuter region.
The housing market
The demand for housing can be estimated from economic
growth and developments in the price of housing or from
population growth. Our estimates of the demand for housing
are based on the growth scenarios described in earlier sections.
In figure 21 we can see that the development in the price of
Prices per owneroccupied dwelling,
SEK ’000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Skåne
Malmö
Lund
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Helsingborg
Figure 21. Prices owner-occupied dwellings, SEK ’000. Source: SCB compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
50
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
0
SEK/m² 2007
prices owneroccupied dwellings
Actual and estimated long-term prices
45 000
40 000
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
Estimated long-term prices Base Skåne
Estimated long-term prices Base Skåne with ESS
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
0
Actual prices in Skåne
Figure 22. Actual and estimated long-term prices owner-occupied dwellings. Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers and SCB.
Construction/
1000 inhabitants
7
6
Strömstad
Umeå
5
Växjö
Stockholm
Varberg
4
Malmö-Lund
3
Nyköping-Oxelösund
2
y = 0,0003228665x - 1,1517674758
1
R 2 = 0,5983708635
0
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
–1
–2
–3
Small house SEK/m²
Figure 23. Construction/1000 inhabitants. Source: SCB compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Higher prices result in more building. Figure 23 shows the
connection between building per 1,000 inhabitants in Sweden’s
local labour markets and small house prices. The historical connection shows that building in the local Malmö–Lund labour
market per 1,000 inhabitants has been on the same level as the
national average, that is Malmö–Lund is on or close to the line.
If this price connection is applied to Skåne then the ESS
will increase dwelling building in Skåne with 550 dwellings
per year up to 2040. This can be compared for example with
the estimates for housing construction made in the ÖRIB,
Infrastructure and Urban Development in the Öresund Region, project of a total of 5,400 dwellings per year in Skåne in
Scenario Baseline and 8,650 in Scenario Competitiveness.
Estimates can also be made based on population growth.
The average household is 2.1 people dwelling in Skåne. This
ratio has been stable for many years and we assume that it
51
does not change. If we use the estimate of population growth
according to ÖRIB’s Scenario Baseline 2045 (which is in line
with Region Skåne’s population forecast to 2027) and that the
ratio is the same as today then this implies a construction rate
of over 4,000 dwellings per year, that is slightly lower than the
estimate the ÖRIB project made of housing construction according to Scenario Baseline.
If we assume the employment growth given in Chapter 5
then this implies a population increase of around 1,050 with
the ESS given that the employment growth also results in the
employees living in the region. With the same household size
this would mean an increase in the housing requirement of
500 per year until 2040.
Estimates made from the effect of the ESS or population increases on dwelling prices both appear to result in an increase in
demand of about 500 dwellings per year in Skåne with the ESS.
Which dwelling markets are affected most? If the ESS results in increased growth in the region which in turn increases
dwelling building where will this take place? All around the
Brunnshög site or evenly spread throughout the region? It is
not possible to answer this question as we do not know where
in the region the growth will be or what preferences people will
have but there are various ways of approaching the question.
One way is to study travelling times and assume that dwelling building will mainly be within reasonable travelling time
from the facility. We therefore assume that the main part of the
growth takes place close to the facility, which may be probable
but not obvious. Growth can equally take place in Tollarp at
Erik Olssons Mekaniska and create the conditions for house
building based on where those who work at Erik Olssons Mekaniska want to live. (Erik Olssons Mekaniska in Tollarp supplies the particle accelerators in Europe; one of its customers is
the MAX-lab in Lund.) Maps 1–4 shows the travelling times by
car or public transport to Lund.
0–20
-
31–45
61–90
Not calculated, over 2 hrs.
21–30
46–60
91–120
Students’ Union, Lund University Faculty of Engineering
Map 1. Car: Travelling time in minutes to the Students’ Union, Lund University Faculty of
Engineering, 2005. Source: Region Skåne.
0–20
31–45
61–90
Not calculated, over 2 hrs.
21–30
46–60
91–120
Students' Union, Lund University Faculty of Engineering
Times given for a journey on a Monday morning with arrival at the destination 07.00–08.30
Map 2. Public Transport: travelling time (minutes) to Students’ Union, Lund University Faculty
of Engineering, 2005. Source: Region Skåne.
52
Travel time to Lund (car)
0-15 min
15-45
Travel time to Lund
(car)min
0-15 min
45-60 min
15-45 min
60-90 min
45-60 min
Regional utveckling
Region Skåne, 2008-12-15
Regional
utveckling
60-90
min
The
size of the
circle
denotes the size of the
Region Skåne, 2008-12-15
population of the community
The size of the circle denotes the size of the
population of the community
Map 3. Travel times from urban areas to Lund by car. Source: Region Skåne.
Travel time to Lund (public transport)
0-15 min
Travel time to Lund (public transport)
15-45 min
0-15 min
15-45 min
45-60 min
45-60 min
60-90 min
60-90 min
90-160 min
Regional utveckling
Region Skåne, 2008-12-15
Regional utveckling
Region Skåne, 2008-12-15
90-160
min
The size
of the circle denotes the size of the population of the community
The size of the circle denotes the size of the population of the community
Map 4. Travel times from urban areas to Lund by public transport. Source: Region Skåne.
53
Distribution according to travelling time and town size
Distribution for commuting to Lund
Town
Total
Percentage (%)
Town
Total
Percentage (%)
Lund
211
42
Lund
250
50
Malmö
103
21
Malmö
64
13
Helsingborg
16
3
Kävlinge
29
6
Staffanstorp
12
2
Eslöv
23
5
Landskrona
11
2
Staffanstorp
22
4
Trelleborg
8
2
Lomma
18
4
Eslöv
7
1
Helsingborg
9
2
Åkarp
6
1
Sjöbo
9
2
Lomma
6
1
Landskrona
7
1
Ängelholm
5
1
Hörby
7
1
Dalby
5
1
Höör
7
1
Södra Sandby
5
1
Other municipalities
57
11
Kristianstad
5
1
Bjärred
5
1
Kävlinge
4
1
Table 5. Distribution for commuting to Lund. Source: SCB compiled by
PricewaterhouseCoopers.
If we distribute an estimated annual construction of 500 dwellings according to travelling times by car and size of the location
then it would be as in table 3.
If we continue to assume that the main part of the growth is
around the facility but also assume that choices of dwelling are
like those who work at Sony Ericsson today then the distribution will be as in table 4.
Another model for estimating where the increased dwelling
demand will take place is to use today’s commuting to Lund. We
assume 20 per cent is in Lund and that the rest of the distribution
is based on where the commuting to Lund starts from. See table 5.
Obviously there are many other variables in the choice of
residential location. What choice there is, both existing and
planned, is decisive for where it is in fact possible to live.
Figure 24 shows the attractiveness of the housing market as
reflected in the willingness to pay and changes in this, i.e. the
price of a dwelling.
It is possible that the ESS affects dwelling prices and the possibility of new production through increasing demand. Which
places are affected also depends on the initiative these places take.
It is reasonable to assume that greater economic growth
results in a general rise in dwelling prices in the region. Even
if price rises may be higher in satellite municipalities, prices in
money terms will be higher in the central conurbations. This
can result in individual families choosing to move to a satellite municipality. If the commuting opportunities to work, for
example, in the central conurbations are good then living in a
satellite municipality becomes more attractive.
Table 3. Distribution according to travelling time by car. Source: Region Skåne
compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Distribution according to where Sony Ericsson employees live
today
Town
Total
Percentage (%)
Malmö
150
30
Lund
150
30
Lomma/Bjärred
25
5
Kävlinge
25
5
Helsingborg
20
4
Vellinge
20
4
Table 4. Dwelling distribution for employees at Sony Ericsson.
Source: Sony Ericsson compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
54
Average small house
price development
2000–2007, %
14
Ystad
Trelleborg
Kävlinge
Sjöbo
Landskrona
Simrishamn
Tomelilla
Svedala
Helsingborg
Svalöv
Örkelljunga Hörby Kristianstad Ängelholm
Höganäs
Bjuv
Åstorp
Staffanstorp Lund
Eslöv Skurup
Höör
12
10
Burlöv
Osby
8
Malmö Vellinge
Lomma
Båstad
Klippan
Hässleholm
Perstorp
Östra Göinge
6
Bromölla
4
2
0
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Small house, SEK ´000
Figur 24. Average small house price development 2000–2007 in per cent. Source: SCB compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
The office market
The office market in Skåne is concentrated to the larger towns,
and certain districts within them. The estimation of the affect of the ESS on the office market is based on employment
growth which we assume the ESS will give rise to, over 700
jobs per year or about 23,000 more fulltime employees by 2040
than would have been the case without the ESS.
All of this employment growth will probably not affect the
office market, that is to say create an increased demand for
office space. How much more office space is built is in turn
dependent on vacancy rates, demolition of older buildings,
conversion to flats etc.
The demand for office space is also affected by the values we
put on where we want to live and work. This report however is
based on these values not being dramatically different from today’s.
The size of the existing office market is the basis for the
estimation of where the increase in demand arises. Creating
Percentage of office workers
of total employed (%)
a completely new office district in a town where there are no
offices at present is not impossible, just unlikely. It means that
the increase in demand for offices is assumed to take place in
Malmö, Lund and Helsingborg.
Table 6 shows for example that of the total number of jobs
in Lund, 28 per cent are office workers, equivalent to 14,000
people, and that this group has increased by 800 between 2000
and 2006.
Figures 25–27 shows the development in the total number of
office workers 2000–2006 and annual changes for Malmö, Lund
and Helsingborg. In Malmö the increase in office workers has
been 1,000 per year, equivalent to a demand of 20,000 m² (if we
assume that every office worker means a demand for 20 m²).
In Lund the increase has been 800 per year, equivalent to
a demand of 16,000 m² of offices, and in Helsingborg about
500 per year, equivalent to a demand of 10,000 m² of offices.
Total number of office workers
Average increase in number of
office workers/year 2000–2006
Malmö
26
34 231
1 052
Lund
28
14 127
824
Helsingborg
21
11 528
495
Table 6. Proportion of office workers. Source: SCB compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
55
Malmö
Number of office workers
Increase in number of office workers
50000
8000
45000
7000
40000
6000
35000
5000
4000
30000
3000
25000
2000
20000
1000
15000
0
10000
-1000
5000
-2000
-3000
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
Employees age 16+ according to industry (office)
2003
2004
2005
2006
Increase in number of employees age 16+ (office)
Figure 25. Number of office workers in Malmö. Source: SCB compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Lund
Number of office workers
Increase in number of office workers
8000
7000
20000
18000
6000
5000
4000
16000
14000
12000
3000
2000
10000
8000
1000
0
-1000
6000
4000
2000
-2000
-3000
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
Employees age 16+ according to industry (office)
2003
2004
2005
2006
Increase in number of employees age 16+ (office)
Figure 26. Number of office workers in Lund. Source: SCB compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Helsingborg
Number of office workers
Increase in number of office workers
20000
8000
18000
7000
16000
6000
14000
5000
4000
12000
3000
10000
2000
8000
1000
6000
0
4000
-1000
2000
-2000
0
-3000
1999
2000
2001
2002
Employees age 16+ according to industry (office)
2003
2004
2005
2006
Increase in number of employees age 16+ (office)
Figure 27. Number of office workers in Helsingborg. Source: SCB compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
56
What changes can the ESS bring about? Table 7 shows what
the increase in demand for office space could mean. The estimate is based on several assumptions about the proportion of
office workers in the total number of jobs created by the ESS.
If we assume that of the total employment growth due to the
ESS, 50 per cent are office workers this means an increase in
demand of over 7,000 m² per year in Skåne.
If we divide 7,000 m² according to how many office workers there are today in Malmö, Lund and Helsingborg in R&D/
teching, this means an increase in demand of about 4,000 m²
in Malmö, 1,700 m² in Lund and 1,400 m² in Helsingborg.
See table 8.
However, if we divide the figure by the number of people employed in the R&D group; teaching, this means that
there will be the following approximate increases in demand
for office space: 3,000 m² in Malmö, 3,000 m² in Lund and
1,200 m² in Helsingborg. See table 9.
If we distribute assuming that 30 per cent of the demand is in
Malmö, 50 per cent in Lund and 20 per cent in Helsingborg then
this means an increase in demand of about 2,200 m² in Malmö,
3,600 m² in Lund and 1,400 m² in Helsingborg. See table 10.
It is not possible to estimate with great accuracy where the
demand for office space will be. If 50 per cent of the employment growth comes from office workers this means an increase
of about 7,000 m² per year which will in all probability mainly
create an increase in demand in Lund, Malmö and Helsingborg.
Compare this with the calculations of which demand for office space for LTH and Ideon have given rise to (see Chapter 5.4).
Increase in number of fulltime employees/year
720
720
720
720
720
720
720
720
720
Assumed percentage office workers (%)
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
80
100
Increase in office workers/year
144
216
288
360
432
504
576
648
720
Assumed space/office worker
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
2 879
4 318
5 757
7 197
8 636
10 075
11 515
12 954
14 394
Space demand
Table 7. Increase in number of fulltime employees/year. Source: SCB compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Distribution according to number of office workers totally in Malmö (57%), Lund (24%) and Helsingborg (19%)
Assumed percentage office workers (%)
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 646
2 468
3 291
4 114
4 937
5 759
6 582
7 405
8 228
Lund, increased demand office space because of ESS
679
1 019
1 358
1 698
2 037
2 377
2 716
3 056
3 395
Helsingborg, increased demand office space because of ESS
554
831
1 108
1 385
1 662
1 939
2 217
2 494
2 771
Malmö, increased demand office space because of ESS
Table 8. Distribution according to number of office workers totally in Malmö, Lund and Helsingborg. Source: SCB compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Distribution of number of employees in the R&D group; teaching between Malmö (41%), Lund (42%) and Helsingborg (17%)
Assumed percentage office workers (%)
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Malmö, increased demand office space because of ESS
1 180
1 770
2 361
2 951
3 541
4 131
4 721
5 311
5 901
Lund, increased demand office space because of ESS
1 209
1 814
2 418
3 023
3 627
4 232
4 836
5 441
6 045
489
734
979
1 223
1 468
1 713
1 958
2 202
2 447
Helsingborg, increased demand office space because of ESS
Table 9. Distribution of the increase in office workers in Malmö, Lund and Helsingborg. Source: SCB compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Assumption of the office employees in Malmö (30%), Lund (50%) and Helsingborg (20%)
Assumed percentage office workers (%)
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Malmö, increased demand office space because of ESS
864
1 295
1 727
2 159
2 591
3 023
3 454
3 886
4 318
1 439
2 159
2 879
3 598
4 318
5 038
5 757
6 477
7 197
576
864
1 151
1 439
1 727
2 015
2 303
2 591
2 879
Lund, increased demand office space because of ESS
Helsingborg, increased demand office space because of ESS
Table 10. Assumption of the office employees in Malmö, Lund and Helsingborg. Source: SCB compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
57
Demand for hotel bed-nights
The estimate of the demand on the hotel market is based on
the number of bed-nights that visitors to the ESS will give
rise to. It is also important to put this increase in demand in
relation to existing and any planned increases in capacity, that
is number of hotels and beds in Lund. The calculation in this
section is a fairly rough estimate.
There are about 5,000 users of neutron facilities in Europe
today. But it is fairly difficult to estimate how many user-visits
there will be to the ESS. It will have 22 instruments and the
number of experiments and users will depend on which instruments are built and what experiments are performed on them.
Certain experiments take ten days and only require being
monitored once a day; others require the involvement of several
people 24 hours a day. ESS Scandinavia has estimated how long
an experiment would take on average and how many work on
an experiment based on the number of instruments and running days.
Against this background, ESS Scandinavia estimates that
the number of visitors to the ESS facility will be 2,000–3,000
a year. On top of this will be visits by scientists and engineers
for other reasons like discussing the results and to participate in
technical work. The ESS estimates that these will involve about
1,000 people.
ESS Scandinavia estimates that each visitor stays on average
4–5 days. Based on 2,000–3,000 visitors and assuming they
all book a single room in a hotel, this results in an increase in
demand of 8,000–15,000 hotel bed-nights per year. Add to
this the 1,000 visitors who it is assumed will come but are not
directly connected with experiments there will be a further
demand for 2,000 hotel bed-nights if we assume these people
stay two nights. Estimating in this way would in other words
mean an increase in demand of 10,000–17,000 bed-nights or
13,500 on average.
Experiences from other facilities as described in Chapter 9,
show that the facility’s machine time is very expensive and that
service plays a major role. The visitors expect that the experiment and services in general function perfectly, 24 hours a day.
This results in several demands on the surrounding community. One example is that the transport infrastructure must be
sufficiently well organised so that getting to the facility is no
problem and that the visiting scientists’ practical needs in the
form of accommodation and sustenance are sufficient, fast and
adequate during the experiment. Against this background we
focus on the effects on the hotel market in Lund. It is a question of putting this increase in demand in relation to existing
and planned capacity. The estimates below are based on the
assumption that all accommodation is in hotels. If visitors stay
elsewhere the demand will be lower.
There are 12 hotels in central Lund and fewer than 800 rooms
(2007). The table below gives some facts about the hotel market in Lund.
In 2007, the number of rooms sold was 177,000. This was
an increase of 9,000 compared with 2006.
The Average daily room occupancy of 61 per cent, spread
over all the days of the year, is high compared with other larger
towns and conurbations in Sweden. It makes a big difference
at what time of the year the increase in demand arises. As can
be seen in the table above, the average daily room occupancy is
76.5 per cent on weekdays. We assume that ESS visitors do not
differ markedly from this pattern.
The capacity in Lund will increase during 2008–09 in the
form of Stay At at Mårtenstorget which has 77 rooms/apartments. On an annual basis this gives an extra 28,000 hotel bednights a year. There are plans for a new hotel with conference
facilities at Brunnshög (Högsta Punkten) where the ESS is to
be built. This will have about 200 rooms which means an extra
73,000 rooms on an annual basis. In the longer term, a hotel is
planned close to Tetra Pak. It is however too early to say how
many rooms it will have but it will probably be less than 150.
The hotel market in Lund already has a high occupation
rate, especially on weekdays. Our assessment is that Lund needs
the planned hotel and conference centre at Brunnshög to cope
with the capacity and meet the needs that arise from other
facilities. If this does not happen it will mean that hotel guests
will have to live in neighbouring towns such as Malmö which
will result in major time losses and irritation for the visitors.
Hotel market, central Lund 2007
21
No. of hotels
12
No. of rooms
789
No. of rooms sold
Average daily room occupancy
177 000
61
Average daily room occupancy weekdays (%)
76,5
Average daily room occupancy weekends (%)
41,7
Number of foreign visitors (%)
26,7
21 HåP Konsult AB. Discussions have been held with Hans-Åke Petersson.
58
6.2 Communication
traffic plans are sufficient to deal with the increase in traffic that
can be expected from the building of the ESS. This has been
based on employees having the same preferences as today when
it comes to means of transport and places of residence.
The section below deals with certain parts of the infrastructure
– roads, rail, harbours and airports.
A broad approach is needed to judge investment requirements when dealing with complex traffic systems such as that
in Skåne. When revising the national infrastructure plan, Region Skåne has carried out an extensive analysis of the investment requirements in Skåne. Furthermore, Skånetrafiken has
produced a railway strategy on behalf of the Public Transport
Committee that applies until 2037. It is based on traffic development forecasts in relationship to the existing infrastructure,
material and the investments required to meet the expected
increase in travellers.
PwC has assumed that the necessary investments are made
during the period and that the traffic system has the capacity described in the document. To see what effects the ESS is
judged to have on the traffic system, we have used commuter
statistics from Statistics Sweden and simulated the effect the
ESS and spin-off companies would have on these statistics.
It should be noted that much can happen between now and
2040 that can affect changes in people’s values such as major
increases in petrol prices, investments in the railways not being
carried out or that the staff connected to the ESS have preferences that are completely different from those of today’s working population of Malmö, Lund and Helsingborg.
Change is continuous but it is difficult to see in what way.
What PwC presents is a scenario aimed at seeing if the existing
The roads
The main European highways in the Öresund Region are heavily
trafficked. This applies to both the Swedish and Danish sides of
Öresund. According to The Öresund Region 2025, road traffic is
expected to increase by over 20 per cent up to 2020, somewhat
lower than on the Danish side. The increase is partly due to the
region being highly populated, partly due to both people and
freight being transported through the region to and from the
Continent. Because the roads are heavily trafficked, the margins
are low which means long traffic queues rapidly form when an
incident occurs that disrupts the traffic flow.
The E22 between Trelleborg and Norrköping is one of
Sweden’s main trunk roads. It goes from Trelleborg via Malmö,
diagonally through Skåne. The catchment area is heavily populated and is rapidly growing economically. According to Region
Skåne, the road is generally seen as having a standard that is far
too low. The motorway starts at Vellinge, passes Malmö and
Lund and ends at the Gårdstånga intersection north of Lund.
It then continues as a four-lane road towards Hurva with grade
separation junctions after which it narrows. There is a section
of motorway at Kristianstad and the rest of the road in Skåne is
an arterial or ordinary road with or without a central barrier.
59
Individual travel is assumed to increase even if this is primarily
by public transport. According to The Öresund Region 2025,
the number of car journeys is expected to have increased by
over 35 per cent by 2045 compared to today. This increase is
expected to be greatest around the Malmö–Copenhagen area
and decrease the farther away you go. Cars are expected to run
on more environment-friendly fuels. Our assessment is that
all the road building that was planned before 2010 should be
carried out as laid down in The Öresund Region 2025, Baseline Scenario 2025. Backup investments on heavily trafficked
stretches should also be carried out. This applies in the first
place to the major European highways but also to parts of the
regional road network.
The aim of continued economic growth in the region will
be a challenge when it comes to the environmental impact of
road traffic, especially its effect on the climate. Increased travel
and amounts of freight that are transported to, and through,
the region will mean an obvious risk of a negative effect on the
climate. According to The Öresund Region 2025, the emission
of carbon dioxide is expected to increase by 20–25 per cent up
to 2025. Two important questions in this context are:
Traffic has increased dramatically on the E22 in the past few
years, especially heavy vehicles. There is expected to be an annual increase of 2–3 per cent in cars and 4–5 per cent in lorries
up to 2010. Generally speaking the Swedish Road Administration has plans for central barriers at least throughout Skåne,
and a motorway section between Sölvesborg and Kristianstad
will be ready around 2015.
The traffic situation of the E22 interchanges around Lund is
problematic during rush hours. The municipality expects traffic
to have increased to 40,000 vehicles a day and sees the only
way of dealing with the problem is to build more interchanges
and motorway lanes.
The E65 between Malmö and Ystad is nearly 60 km long.
The first part is motorway that ends at Tittente. It is then a
13-metre road with a central barrier and 2+2 and 2+1 lanes to
Ystad.
There are plans to extend the motorway from Tittente to a
couple of kilometres after the exit to Sturup but this has been
postponed; a new roundabout has been built at the exit to
Sturup.
The E6 in Skåne runs from Trelleborg up the west coast
through Skåne and all the way to the Norwegian border. Most
of the road is heavily trafficked, especially by transit freight traffic from the ports in the south to the rest of Sweden. On some
stretches heavy vehicle traffic has more than doubled in the
last ten years and is now so dense that it takes up one lane at
certain times of the day. There is therefore a risk for disruption,
especially during the rush hours.
The E6 between Trelleborg and Vellinge is the only remaining part before the E6 attains four-lane standard the whole
way between Malmö and Trelleborg. The government has now
allocated SEK 250 million and the work will be completed by
2010.
Apart from the extension above, Region Skåne believes that
capacity will need to be increased with an extra lane in both
directions between Malmö and Helsingborg.
The number of commuters over the Öresund Bridge has
increased steadily. In 2006, there were about 5,000 peoplecrossings a day over the Bridge by car. It is forecast that the
number of commuters will continue to increase and in ten
years The Öresund Region 2025 predicts that there will serious
disruptions during the morning rush hour. One proposal is for
another fixed link between Helsingborg and Helsingør for road
and rail traffic. According to The Öresund Region 2025, about
4,400 lorries a day pass over the Bridge while 1,600 use the
ferries between Helsingborg and Helsingør.
In this context we believe that the Danish system cannot
cope with a major expansion of road traffic, either in Helsingør
or past Copenhagen.
f How can new and more fuel-economic vehicles be encouraged as well as new and more environment-friendly fuels
used?
f How can the use of public transport be promoted?
Both of these questions are seen to be within the control of the
region to a certain extent for example through the use of car
tolls, congestion charges and parking fees as well as the quality
and price levels of public transport. Against the background of
the latest political debate, it should be obvious that the demand
for a more environment-friendly transport system will be
brought up again.
The use of land will also be significant. The region has some
of Sweden’s most fertile farmland. Increased building of roads
will eat into the cultivated acreage. It is important that the
widening of existing roads and building of new ones is done so
as to minimise the environmental impact.
60
The railways
Rail travel is assumed to continue to increase, during 2006 by
as much as 15 per cent in Skåne according to Region Skåne. It
estimates that the annual increase over the next ten years will
be of the order of 4–12 per cent over and above the effect of the
City Tunnel. The reason is partly due to increased investments
in traffic and the infrastructure, partly to increased environmental demands as well as fuel prices that affect alternative
methods of transport negatively.
The rail system is approaching full capacity on several
stretches which means that increasing capacity on the line
between Malmö and Lund is necessary. Building two new
tracks between Malmö and Flackarp can be completed by 2018
which is a premise for utilising the City Tunnel to the full.
Furthermore, increasing the length of the platforms increases
the capacity of this line.
The rail connection across the Öresund Bridge is expected
to have capacity problems during certain times of the day according the Swedish Rail Administration. Certain measures can
be taken to alleviate this but it is primarily the traffic situation
at Copenhagen Airport that is the bottleneck. Skånetrafiken
expects the Bridge to reach full utilisation by 2037. Just as with
what has been said about road traffic over Öresund, a fixed rail
link Helsingborg–Helsingør would increase capacity although
the coastal line on the Danish side has capacity problems.
An agreement has been reached on a fixed link across Fehmarn Bælt between representatives of Denmark and Germany.
The link could mean increased demand for rail transport. There
are capacity problems on the west coast line north of Helsingborg. The situation will be critical after 2020 if nothing is done.
Skånetrafiken’s assessment is that travelling will increase
by six per cent a year until 2037. Furthermore it believes that
maximum capacity will be reached on the main lines by 2020.
High-speed trains are seen as a way of easing the load on the
ordinary rail lines. An important component for these trains
is the decision to build a bridge over Fehmarn Bælt. Although
barely 20 kilometres long, the bridge between Danish Rødby
and German Puttgarden will cut the travelling time between
Sweden and Germany by an hour.
A high-speed rail line would ease the load on the existing
main line and lessen today’s congestion for commuter and goods
traffic. Fast intercity traffic would have its own tracks while the
slower goods and local traffic could use the existing tracks.
The Swedish Rail Administration has dealt with the question of high-speed tracks and has submitted a report to the
government. The cabinet office is drafting a paper for the
further management of the issue.
All projected rail infrastructure projects in the Öresund
Region are expected to have been implemented according to
The Öresund Region 2025 Baseline Scenario. On top of this,
extra investments are needed in the railways to cope with increases in travelling and freight transport. This applies throughout the Öresund Region.
Rail travel is seen as increasing more dramatically than road
traffic. According to ÖRIB, around 100 goods trains/day are
expected to cross the Öresund by 2045. 140 trains/day are expected to traffic the southern main line compared to today’s 70.
We believe the need for another fixed link across Öresund is
becoming acute. As was stated above, present plans mean that
full capacity will be reached after 2020 on several rail lines. In
our judgement this means that further investments are essential
for the increases in both passenger and goods traffic irrespective
of whether the ESS is built or not.
The Lund Link, which was opened in 2003, is a public
transport system that connects central Lund with the University, LTH, Ideon, Brunnshög and on to Södra Sandby. About
25,000 people a day use the service. The city plans to transfer
the Link to a track-bound city network linking the same area
but connected to the regional network and this should be
completed by 2014. The building of the ESS will accentuate the
need to invest in public transport in Lund.
In conclusion, we can say that increased rail traffic has both
positive and negative impacts on the environment.
Commuting
According to Chapter 5, the ESS is expected to create 23,000
new jobs in Skåne up to 2040. The thesis Perspectives on
Regional and Industrial Dynamics of Innovation22 shows that
the dissemination of R&D results to companies is favoured by
closeness to a university. Based on this, as well as statistics from
Statistics Sweden on employees working in R&D/education in
Skåne, PwC has apportioned 41 per cent of the 23,000 jobs to
Malmö, 42 per cent to Lund and 17 per cent to Helsingborg.
This distribution is based on that which applies today in the
R&D/education group between these towns. It is an approximation and aims to provide a scenario of how the dissemination of knowledge from the ESS to other companies can
affect the commuting pattern. Another scenario could be that
all the 23,000 jobs are created in Lund and another that the
dissemination effects will be less than has been estimated and
that there will be fewer jobs.
The following commuting pattern is obtained for Malmö,
Lund and Helsingborg, see tables 11–13, based on the assumption above and today’s commuting pattern.
22 Ejemo, Olof, 2004, Perspectives on Regional and Industrial Dynamics of
Innovation, International Business School, Jönköping University.
61
Map 5 shows the important regional and intra-regional roads
and rail lines in Skåne. Furthermore it shows Lund’s central
position, partly in the region as such but also in relation to
Helsingborg and Malmö.
The second column in tables 11–13 shows the commuting
situation today. The next shows how the total is divided by
municipality with the building of the ESS. The other columns
show how these are divided between various forms of transport.
What this shows is that the effects on the transport system
are expected to be relatively limited. The greatest impact on
Lund according to the envisaged scenario would come from the
number of journeys increasing by 15 per cent over today’s levels.
For Malmö and Helsingborg the increases would be seven and
six per cent respectively.
Regionally important routes
(link municipal centres and other places with at least 5000 inhab.)
Rail lines that are of regional importance
Heavily trafficked bus routes that are of regional importance
Mediumly trafficked bus routes that are of regional importance
Intra-regionally important routes
(link places with at least 1,000 inhab.)
Heavily trafficked bus routes that are of intraregional importance
Medium trafficked bus routes that are of intraregional importance
Lightly trafficked bus routes that are of intraregional importance
Map 5. Regional and intra-regional road and rail lines in Skåne. Source: Skånetrafiken.
Commuting to Malmö
No. of days
Spin-off
No. of bus and
train travellers
No. of bus
travellers
No. who drive
No. of pedestrians
and cyclists
Helsingborg
2 085
138
41
0
97
0
Kävlinge
2 914
193
58
0
135
0
Lomma
3 123
207
62
0
145
0
Staffanstorp
3 215
213
64
0
149
0
Lund
8 075
535
160
0
374
0
Burlöv
2 933
194
58
0
136
0
Vellinge
7 416
491
147
0
344
0
Svedala
4 388
291
87
0
203
0
Skurup
1 796
119
36
0
83
0
Trelleborg
4 519
301
90
0
211
0
Other municipalities
14 233
943
283
0
660
0
Total
54 727
3 625
1 087
0
2 537
0
88 005
5 829
0
729
3 206
1 894
Municipality
Commuters within Malmö
Malmö
Table 11. Commuting to Malmö. Source: SCB compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
62
Commuters to Lund
No. of days
Spin-off
No. of bus and
train travellers
No. of bus
travellers
No. who drive
No. of pedestrians
and cyclists
Eslöv
2 821
435
152
0
283
0
Helsingborg
1 173
181
54
0
127
0
Hörby
855
132
0
36
96
0
Höör
842
130
45
0
84
0
3 562
549
192
0
357
0
858
132
40
0
93
0
Lomma
2 257
348
0
96
252
0
Malmö
7 958
1 227
430
0
798
0
Sjöbo
1 098
169
0
47
123
0
Staffanstorp
2 692
415
0
114
301
0
Other municipalities
7 053
1 088
272
0
816
0
Total
31 169
4 807
1 185
293
3 328
0
31 053
4 807
0
481
1 923
2 403
Municipality
Kävlinge
Landskrona
Commuters within Lund
Lund
Table 12. Commuting to Lund. Source: SCB compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Commuters to Helsingborg
No. of days
Spin-off
No. of bus and
train travellers
No. of bus
travellers
No. who drive
No. of pedestrians
and cyclists
414
26
8
0
18
0
Landskrona
1 877
119
36
0
83
0
Malmö
1 094
69
21
0
49
0
Svalöv
486
31
9
0
22
0
2 069
131
39
0
92
0
Klippan
761
48
14
0
34
0
Åstorp
1 666
106
32
0
74
0
726
46
14
0
32
0
Höganäs
3 391
215
65
0
151
0
Ängelholm
2 890
183
55
0
128
0
Other municipalities
3 998
254
76
0
178
0
Total
19 372
1 230
369
0
861
0
42 585
2 703
0
338
1 487
879
Municipality
Kävlinge
Bjuv
Lund
Commuters within Helsingborg
Helsingborg
Table 13. Commuting to Helsingborg. Source: SCB compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
63
The population growth in the Öresund Region according to
The Öresund Region 2045 is expected to be 11–22 per cent.
This means that the general population growth and economy
would be greater in real terms than that caused by the ESS
and therefore have a greater effect on the development of
the transport system than that of the ESS. In Skånetrafiken’s
report Tågstrategi 203723 (Rail Strategy 2037), there are three
forecasts of the development of travel by rail where the lowest
is 2.6 times greater than today and the highest 13 times. The
increase since Skånetrafiken was started in 1999 has never been
less than ten per cent a year. For public transport as a whole,
Skånetrafiken’s assessment is an annual increase of about five
per cent up to 2037.
As table 12 shows, the building of the ESS means an
increased number of pedestrians and cyclists in Lund which
makes demands on the continued development of the network
of cycle and pedestrian paths.
PwC’s conclusion is that if the traffic system is expanded
at the rate determined necessary to cope with the ‘ordinary’
growth in traffic in the Skåne region the increase in travelling
generated by the ESS should fit into the existing traffic plans. If
capacity is not increased there will be a problem, mainly with
rail traffic, but this will arise irrespective of whether the ESS is
built or not.
This means that continued increase in demand within the
region cannot be covered by Copenhagen Airport, and Malmö
Airport could become an alternative. Copenhagen Airport has
however acquired Roskilde Airport which it intends to develop.
Malmö Airport aims to have four million journeys by 2010.
Copenhagen Airport is very accessible thanks to rail services to
Sweden and the rest of Denmark while Malmö is only served
by buses but a rail link is being investigated.
For shorter domestic flights, a continued decrease in the
volume of journeys and freight transport is expected to continue. This trend will increase if a high-speed train service is
introduced. Continued globalisation and the positive effects
including the increased growth generated by the ESS will mean
a continued demand for international flights which will make
demands on a functioning air traffic infrastructure. To create
the necessary capacity, it is essential that Malmö Airport is
connected to Malmö, Copenhagen and Copenhagen Airport to
create an attractive air traffic transport system in the region.
Discussions are being held on the future of SAS. A merger
with another international airline could have positive and negative consequences on the choice of flights in the region.
Air traffic is ascribed a large impact on the environment despite the fact that the industry only accounts for three per cent
of the global emission of carbon dioxide. Discussions are being
held about including air traffic in emission trading. The effects
of this and other climate regulations will control the future of
air traffic.
The harbours
Skåne is Sweden’s, and to a certain extent Norway’s and Finland’s, port to Europe. The amount of freight has increased
partly due to the increasing economic activity in the former
Eastern Europe. If transport by sea continues to develop then
this will make increased demands on the harbours in Skåne
up to 2040. ÖRIB expects the traffic to Western Europe to
increase by two per cent annually up to 2025 and then by one
per cent while the equivalent figures for Eastern Europe are five
and two per cent respectively.
This in turn will make great demands on both the roads and
railways to and from the harbours. The effects of the ESS on
the harbours will be marginal.
6.3 Energy
The energy situation in Skåne is at present good. There are only
minor risks for deficiencies in the grid even if certain improvements need to be made as part of the ongoing work on ensuring availability. Among these is the moving of 130 kV lines
with transformers; the extension of heating and refrigeration
networks is also something that needs to be looked into.
The extension of MAX IV requires a further 4–5 MW
which affects the dimensioning of the grid but should not
cause any problems with the supply.
The following district heating systems are to be built:
Air traffic
The Öresund Region should be seen as a single region from an
air traffic point of view. According to Region Skåne, Copenhagen Airport deals with over 20 million journeys of which six
million originate from Sweden. The traffic at Malmö Airport is
a tenth of Copenhagen’s, which is one of the 20 largest in the
world with traffic to 125 destinations.
According to certain estimates, Copenhagen Airport will
reach its traffic ceiling around 2014 when it will no longer have
extra ground to continue expanding the airport.
f Öresundsverket 220 MW heat and 440 MW electricity,
heated by natural gas.
f Örtofta 100 MW heat and 50 MW electricity, biofuel.
In principle the whole of Skåne including the sea is suitable for
wind turbines. There are around 250 in operation and several
more parks are planned.
23 Skånetrafiken, 6/1/2008, Tågstrategi 2037.
64
The ESS requires 40 MW when fully operational. This is not
seen as creating any problems and neither does it mean any effects in the form of worsened supply for other players.
There are several suppliers of energy who are interested in
participating in the project as energy suppliers.
Lunds Energi and the ESS have signed a letter of intent.
According to Lund Energi:
General developments in the telecoms sector are expected to be
driven in the future by commercial forces. Developments take
place continually, partly of new services and partly of upgrading existing ones. These developments are global and linked to
various companies as well as research institutes. It is difficult
today to judge what types of platform and services will be used
in 2040. In just a few years for example traffic volume on the
Internet has doubled. The general opinion is that the demand
for global, rapid, cost effective and secure communications
will increase which means that developments in telecoms will
continue at a fast rate.
As has already been said, there exist a number of players
in the fibre optic network area. Building the ESS could mean
further players entering the field.
Advanced research increasingly requires very powerful
computer systems, so-called eScience. Within the ESS large
amounts of information need to be managed. Furthermore,
there is a great need to be able to distribute this information
reliably and securely worldwide. This means that the ESS has a
great interest in players in the telecoms sector who will be able
to develop new services and technologies based on the demands
made by the ESS. It is also likely that the ESS will contribute
to developing skills in grid networking and data processing
in the Öresund Region. Research facilities like CERN and
SNS are the leaders today in developing super computers and
advanced grid technology.
The Swedish-Danish agreement includes the establishment
of an ESS Data Management Centre in Copenhagen to support the ESS. The Centre will be responsible for data management and analysis, software and data simulations. The Nordic
grid network is based in Copenhagen today.
f It has an ambition to create together with the ESS a largescale research centre that is both energy and carbon dioxide
neutral.
f The surplus heat from the facility will be 25 MW of heat.
It is believed that a major part of this can be recovered by
connecting the facility to the district heating network.
f The conditions for storing the surplus heat are being
investigated.
Lunds Energi’s competitors do not have district heating networks in the town.
The building of the ESS and the positive effects it otherwise
has on the business community mean a continued increase in
the demand for energy even if the work with energy-saving
measures is pursued.
The plan is that energy for the ESS shall be generated in an
environmentally effective way. The environmental aspects of
the energy production otherwise are dependent on the primary
source used. As the energy sector in the immediate region is
now part of the emission trading system and there are incentives for expanding renewable energy production, it can be
profitable to switch to a more environment-friendly production.
6.4 Telecoms
There are around 50 suppliers of telecoms services to the consumer in Skåne. This means there is a functioning market. As
in the rest of Sweden, land-line telephony is efficient. This also
applies to the cell phone system and 2G technology exists in
principle throughout Skåne. The 3G network is under construction and is common in Skåne while Turbo 3G is successively being expanded and is available in larger towns.
When it comes to broadband Skåne ranks high in Sweden
for the conditions for access to broadband which means it is
readily available.
There are several players who own fibre optic networks
in Lund – TeliaSonera and TDC Song, as well as Perspektiv
Bredband and Kraftringen Service (Lunds Energi). TeliaSonera
is the market leader and controls over 50 per cent of the market
in Sweden. There is at present a great demand for fibre optic
networks. According to the Swedish Post and Telecom Agency,
the demand for fibre optic broadband will continue to increase.
65
6.5 Research and development
makes great demands on the community to provide the ESS
with highly educated scientists and technicians, and to support
the work by turning the research results and innovations into
marketable products and services. It is not possible to point to
any one group in this work; it requires cooperation within and
between all levels as well as the business community, universities and research centres. The supply of skills and commercialisation are of decisive importance as well as the support the
community can provide for this.
There is also cause to note the internationalisation of higher
education which has seen the growth of a large international
market for students. This obviously provides great opportunities as well as posing a threat to the long-term availability of
trained people. There will be competition for top scientists and
then it is a question of being noticed, of having a brand that
attracts, involves and creates curiosity.
A number of different types of efforts have been devised
within the research and development sector to support developments and realising ideas, business incubators, office space
and services to develop businesses in a centrally located and
academic context.
Shortage of engineers
During the year the Swedish Science Council has reported
its prioritisation of the infrastructure of research. The highest
priority is continued membership of the international research
facilities where Sweden participates. Furthermore, the construction of a joint ESS and MAX IV have high priority. The
ESS will be the most powerful in the world and thereby have
the potential to become one of the world’s leading research
facilities. MAX IV has the potential to be one of the leading
synchrotron radiation sources in Europe.24
The government’s finance bill25 says that:
Investments in research will include a strengthening of the structure
that exists to stimulate innovation and exploit research results in
universities …//…
Sweden has a problem in recruiting students to graduate engineering courses. There are also great differences between the interests of
men and women for these courses. With this in mind it is essential
to make extra efforts to increase the interest in mathematics, science,
technology and information and communication technology among
children and young people – and especially among girls and women.
Against this background the government has set up a technology
committee with the task of determining the need for a workforce
well trained in mathematics, science, technology and information
and communication technology as well as ensuring that the need is
more widely known. The committee shall also increase interest in
university education within these subjects. It is proposed that the technology committee be given a budget of SEK 40 million for the period
2008–2010. These funds should be used for external work as well as
for supporting other projects and efforts in this field.
Science Centre
A Science Centre is an exhibition and interactive centre aimed
at popularising science that aims to teach through interactive
displays and demonstrations.
There are some 20 such Centres with two smaller ones in
Helsingborg and Malmö. The largest and closest Science Centres from Lund are the Experimentarium in Copenhagen and
the Universeum in Gothenburg.
Universeum
Universeum is a Swedish project started by the West Sweden
Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Gothenburg University,
Chalmers University of Technology and the Gothenburg region
Association of Local Authorities. The project cost SEK 370 million,26 which covered investment in the building, equipment,
product development and launching.
The aim of the project is to support the supply of trained
people in the future; a comparison of the number of students
in various countries showed that Sweden was lagging behind
in these subjects. There was concern that young people in the
future would not be interested in studying natural sciences and
…//…
To achieve Swedish cutting-edge courses in entrepreneurship
and innovation, the government proposes that SEK 8.1 million
is allocated for 2009 and a further SEK 7.2 for 2010. This work
will continue in 2011 and means that colleges that already have
advanced courses in entrepreneurship and innovation should be
able to apply for grants. It is planned that the first students start in
the autumn term 2009.
Consequently the government has identified several factors that
are highly significant so that the establishment of the ESS in
Lund should be the cutting-edge node that is hoped for. This
26 The project was financed with funds from: Partner – SEK 72 million,
Municipalities in the Gothenburg region – SEK 50 million, Gothenburg
University and Chalmers University of Technology – SEK 20 million, West
Sweden Chamber of Commerce and Industry – SEK 15 million, the Swedish
state – SEK 50 million, The Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation – SEK 70
million, The KK Foundation – SEK 35 million, The Confederation of Swedish
Enterprise – SEK 20 million, Other funds and foundations – SEK 14 million.
24 Prop. 2007/08:1, utgiftsområde 16.
25 Regeringens satsningar på högskole- och forskningsområdet, U08.009.
66
Milton Park, MEPC, Great Britain
Milton Park29 in Oxfordshire is one of Europe’s largest business
and science parks with over 150 companies and 6,500 employees
in 77 hectares. The Park is owned and run by a property company – MEPC which has invested GBP 50 million since 1997
and plans to invest a further GBP 70 million. Being sole owner
and with a large property complex, the facility provides flexible
premises and its size allows services such as childcare, hairdressers, banks, restaurants etc. The Park also provides its tenants
support with starting and developing a company, legal advice,
arranging seminars and sales activities (see also Chapter 9.4).
technology to the extent that the development of modern
society requires. Representatives of the founders set up a working committee in 1996 with the task of working out a plan for a
facility that would increase the interest in natural sciences and
technology. With a budget of SEK 320 million, a decision was
made in 1999 to build Universeum – 100,000 m² on six floors
with a living environment and experiments. 56,600 schoolchildren visited Universeum in 2007.
The aim of a Science Centre is to close the gap between
research and the public, and thereby contribute to increasing
the interest in natural sciences and technology which has steadily decreased in the Western World. In a report, the European
Commission presented various steps for increasing interest as
well as educational methods in teaching.27 One teaching tool is
to invest in Science Centres, where there are dynamic teachers,
aimed at children and young people. Moreover the Commission meant that such Centres should be partly financed by
municipalities and regions. The Commission also highlighted
this type of extra-curricula activity as an important factor in
attracting future students to natural sciences and technology
courses.
5%
10%
10%
40%
5%
30%
Science Park
A Science Park focuses on the start, development and growth
of science companies. Its business idea is to be a meeting place
for people and ideas where development and driving forces are
exploited and given the conditions for positive development.
A Science Park should be a platform for cooperation between
the business community and the academic world with the aim
of creating new business areas and businesses. There are often
common support functions such as advertising, service etc.
Information & Communications Technology, ICT
Life Sciences
Clean-tech
Other hi-tech
Service providers
Service companies
Figure 28. Distribution of company types at Ideon today.
Source: www.Ideon.se, compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Ideon
There are several Science Parks in Sweden. Opened in 1983,
Ideon was one of the first and today is home to 250 companies
(including associated companies, incubator companies and Ideon Business companies), with 3,000 employees and 100,000 m²
of laboratory and office space.
Minatech, Grenoble, France
MINATEC® Technology Transfer Office supports the business
development of newly started companies with things like business ideas, marketing, networking, negotiations, and contracts.
Minatec has just over 2,400 employees and a 20 hectare campus.28 In the Park are research facilities, companies and teaching
institutions.
27 The European Commission, 2007, Science Education Now: A renewed
Pedagogy for the Future of Europe.
28 Presentation PPT – MINATEC – 07/2008.
29 Milton Park Brochure
67
Conclusions
Insufficient research has been carried out into the benefits of
the Science Park concept to make a reliable assessment of the
effects. The results the facilities themselves give are primarily
Park finances and the economic effects for the country are said
to be high but difficult to measure.
The STFC is developing a model that should be interesting
for new companies setting up around the ESS and MAX IV.
The Swedish government’s research bill also draws attention
to the need for entrepreneurship combined with innovation.
The universities and colleges in the region have the opportunity
to apply for grants for such courses from 2009.
STFC – Drivers for Change – Delivering Growth Through
Innovation
Delivering growth through innovation across both the public
and private sectors over the coming decade will require the UK
to generate a stronger flow of ideas and talented people into the
economy.30
In March 2006 the British government produced 10-Year Science and Innovation Investment Framework – the Next Steps
in conjunction with its budget. It commissioned the Science
and Technology Facilities Council to ensure that the investments made in large research facilities in Britain and abroad
have a positive effect on the economy through innovation. The
STFC therefore ensures that the research programmes receiving state grants can be converted into economic growth and
increased productivity. At present a model is used to measure
or report results from an exploitation perspective.
The fight for the talented
To what extent Science Centres can increase young people’s interest and their will to study natural sciences is difficult to say.
An underlying thought as good as any is that a Science Centre
should contribute to the ratios of those studying natural sciences at advanced levels. If one succeeds in awaking the interest
of children and young people then it has to be maintained
throughout the working part of their lives.
Significantly more radical measures need to be taken to
counteract the brain drain and improve the competitiveness
for top researchers during the life of the ESS and MAX IV.
The government has stated in its research bill31 that ‘education
has been internationalised’ and that ‘a market for students has
arisen’.
In this context it is naturally of great importance to increase
interest in technical education and that a sufficiently large
number of engineers qualify from the country’s colleges. But
as education has been internationalised and that a market has
arisen for students, it is even more important to become one of
the most attractive places to study and do research in order to
keep the new graduates in the country and to attract students
Spin-off and other economic effects
Both Swedish and international experience tells us that it is
important to create support functions for research.
The government in Britain stated in 2006 that far too little
commercial benefit arose from innovations. Britain, like Sweden, ranks high for innovation but lacks the ability to bring the
results to market. The result of this insight was the setting up of
the STFC and implementing various types of support to build
bridges between research and the market. Minatec in Grenoble is partly financed by the government or state grants while
Milton Park is totally owned by MEPC which is also responsible for the support functions. The Park is financed by rent and
charges that include the support functions. Flexible rentals are
given as one of the success factors.
30 Government’s 10-Year Science and Innovation Investment Framework,
Science and Technology Facilities Council.
31 Prop. 2007/08:1, utgiftsområde 16.
Globalisation Council’s new report:
Risk for shortage of engineers in Sweden
The Globalisation Council warns in a new report that there can be a
shortage of engineers in Sweden in the future. Interest in engineering
courses has decreased dramatically. The number of students who
entered engineering courses at college dropped by 30 per cent from
2001 to 2007.
The Council believes that several measures should be taken by
the government together with other players to ensure availability of
engineers. An important factor is the way natural science teaching is
organised in compulsory and high schools. According to the Council,
economic conditions which the government can influence through
reforming student grants and loans, and taxation, also play a role.
”The shortage of engineers can be a very serious issue for the Swedish economy. In the global market, access to a well educated workforce is a major competitive advantage,” says the Council’s chairman
Lars Leijonborg, minister for higher education and research.
The Globalisation Council also proposes that the government does
as the Danes have done and carry out a campaign to increase the
interest in engineering courses. The campaign in Denmark contained
information on what the profession meant and the opportunities available after graduation.
Source: Press release from the Ministry of Education 25 January
2008, http://www.regeringen.se/sb/d/9962/a/96636
68
and researchers from outside Sweden and Europe. To succeed
with an attractiveness that is international in brain gain instead
of brain drain.
The supply of skilled staff has been given during visits as a
critical factor for all the facilities. Interviews at J-PARC, Japan,
and Oak Ridge, USA reveal that they envisage great competition for the available scientists in the near future. At Oak
Ridge, most of the researchers are Europeans.
At Diamond in the UK, they have chosen not to adopt the
concept of Science Centre and exhibition with ‘make-believe
research’. Instead they have guided tours of the facility; it is the
‘real thing’ that counts. The problem with the supply of skilled
staff in the field of the natural sciences is a global phenomenon
with the possible exception of China. Our assessment is that
it is only at the national/European level that measures can be
taken. Attitudes, values, salaries, terms of employment, regulations for international researchers are questions that need to
be discussed, not just for Lund, and the ESS and MAX IV.
The efforts at local level with good teaching and interesting
approaches to increase interest and knowledge in compulsory
schools are measures that each municipality can develop. Furthermore, the region and municipalities in the immediate area
together with research facilities and the business community
can work out a local strategy to strengthen the connection
between research and the local community, just the same as the
region’s ability to supply skills continually. In this context, contact and cooperation with other neighbouring research facilities
and regions is of great importance.
Global competition is pushing developments towards cooperation and increased ‘regional’ competitiveness where ‘regions’
means Europe, USA, Japan and China. There are reasons to
assume that these ‘regions’ can be restructured in a relatively
short time. It is planned that the ESS will be operational by
2018 and much can happen before then. The conditions for
cooperation between various facilities in Europe are good. They
are relatively close to one another, their research is complementary and cooperation increases their effectiveness and keeps
costs down.
Financing is however a source of competition. Jointly financed facilities tend to outcompete domestic research, a form
of reasoning that has been shown when visiting other facilities
and in parts of the Swedish debate. Taking the initiative to
greater cooperation between communities where the facilities
are located could be a strategic approach for improving the
exchange between research and society. An example of such an
initiative is the Quadrant Partnership,32 a cooperative project
in South Central Oxfordshire aimed at improving sustainable
growth in the region (see also Chapter 9).
32 South East England Development Agency (SEEDA),
Vale of White Horse District Council (VWHDC),
United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA),
Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC),
MEPC Milton Park, Oxfordshire County Council,
South Oxfordshire District Council,
Oxfordshire Economic Partnership (participating observer in the Partnership),
Government Office for the South East (participating observer in the
Partnership).
Academic environmental magnets
A concrete effect of the growing importance of research for economic
development is that strong academic environments have increasingly
become magnets that attract the business community, risk capital and
other public organisations. The presence of such groups tends in turn
to increase the attractiveness of colleges and universities in a sort of
positive spiral. An important question for the Globalisation Council is
what can be done to promote growth of this type of cluster according
to Harriet Wallberg-Henriksson.
“International competitiveness is so intense that a university or
pharmaceutical company can no longer be isolated if it is to succeed.
Other functions are required to be attractive. Globalisation even affects the conditions for universities in a more direct way. Competition
for the best researchers has intensified,” says Harriet Wallberg-Henriksson, “if we don’t concentrate on research and development we risk
a brain drain in the future.”
The interest of the young decisive
“With all respect to cluster building, allocation of resources and
innovation structures, in the long term it can be that something else
will be decisive for how well Sweden and the rest of Europe cope with
globalisation,” emphasises Harriet Wallberg-Henriksson, “The ability to
attract youngsters to go into research.” She is a member of a group
under EU Commissioner Jan Potocnik that works with the question.
The interest among young people to pursue a science career has
decreased markedly in the EU. This is serious. If nobody is interested
in science then we will not have any research with which to compete.
Forska no. 3, 2007
69
6.6 The public services
opening multilingual departments in existing kindergartens
such as a Japanese department. There is already pressure to
open such departments but there is no clear picture of the
demand.
In rolling population forecasts up to 2025 that are the basis
for dimensioning schools, no account has been taken of the
ESS. The rebuilding of Parkskolan, a school that is part of
Katedralskolan, that has now started means that the international
school can expand from the present 100 students to 200. If a
decision is made to build the ESS in Lund, there are plans to
expand Parkskolan. This can be done in stages to meet the need
arising from the ESS. Fully built, the school can accommodate
300 students. The rebuilding should be completed in 2012.
In the forecast up to 2014, the number of students is expected to decrease in the high schools by 717 in the age group
16–18, while the number at compulsory school will increase by
1,408 and at kindergarten by 1,206.
The Municipality believes that some form of agreement has
to be reached between the municipalities in Skåne to make it
possible for scientists to live in one municipality and know that
their children can go to school in Lund. Here the Association of
Local Authorities in Skåne has a role to play. Of the students at
high schools today, 42 per cent come from other municipalities.
The local education authority does not believe there a isneed for
In earlier Chapters we have given accounts of some of the challenges facing Swedish research in general in the natural sciences.
Should the ESS and MAX IV be built in Lund, these challenges
affect Lund and the surrounding region in particular.
Children and education
Interviews
The Municipality of Lund says that it is well prepared for the
ESS. It has participated in various meetings with the ESS
Secretariat and has privately obtained statistics that there could
be about 200 foreign children/young people if the ESS is built.
On top of this there would be 350–400 Swedish pupils in the
age group 0 to 18.
The Municipality has experience of dealing with varying
pupil numbers and is prepared for such requests as teaching in
English.
There is no municipal English-language kindergarten at
present. It has been proposed but was mothballed. Instead
there is a private supplier who meets the need that exists in the
town. Furthermore, there is a bilingual Montessori kindergarten.
The existing private supplier can receive competition in the
future. According to the Municipality there is no problem in
70
The ESS and the Capital of Culture year
In all likelihood Lund’s application to be the European Capital
of Culture has a greater impact on cultural activities within the
region than the building of the ESS. Cultural policy in Lund
will also be designed for an international market as is the application. This has a creative and provocative content that will
put the international focus on Lund and Skåne in the same way
but maybe more subtle than the Winter Olympic games put
Grenoble on the map.
The region of Skåne also has great natural attractions such
as Brösarpsbackar, Stens huvud, Hovs Hallar, Ales stenar as well
as the close proximity of the sea which from an international
perspective are both exotic and exciting.
a new English school apart from the IB schools33 that exist in
Helsingborg, Malmö and Kristianstad at high school level.
Leisure/the arts
Interviews
We have interviewed the Directors of the Arts in Malmö,
Lund, Helsingborg and Region Skåne about the expected effect of the ESS on cultural life in Lund and to what extent the
project affects their planning.
All in all, the municipalities believe that the arts is in
each town and region are of international standard and that
easy access to Copenhagen not only means that we can enjoy
the cultural life in Denmark but also that many Danes visit
Swedish cultural events.
One Director believes that it is difficult to foresee what the
ESS might result in. Scientists and employees have to say what
events they want and make demands. One interesting effect of
the ESS is that its building would put the focus on soft issues
of which the arts is one. The new community planning will
mean that attention will also be paid to the arts at the planning
stage. The ESS projects will also mean the holding of international events, exhibitions and conferences that will demand
various cultural programmes.
”The town/region that has the most ballets, theatres and symphony
orchestras wins.”
Arthur Bienenstock, Professor at Stanford University working at
the SNS and former scientific research advisor to Bill Clinton
Figure 29. The circle has a radius of 70 km from the ESS.
33 International Baccalaureate, IB is an internationally accepted two-year high
school course that provides access to colleges and universities in more than 100
countries including Sweden. The aim of the course is to promote international
mobility and understanding. The IB line prepares students for university where
the teaching is in English. Source: http://www.spouses.nu/skolor/skolorisverige/IB.html, 15/10/2008.
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f
Dag Hammarskjöld’s Backåkra
f
The Raul Wallenberg Institute
f
Uppåkra major 5th century settlement
f
Stately homes in Skåne
f
Louisiana Museum
f
Viking Museum in Roskilde
f
Opera in Malmö and Copenhagen
f
Tivoli and Glypoteket in Copenhagen
An international survey
Examples of questions in the future planning of public services
can be:
Grenoble, France
f What do we want? An integrated vision of a scientific
community that both supports and wins by being an
international player in the world of research, a local community that solves problems as they arise, or something in
between?
International schooling – Grenoble
· One international secondary school and several primary
schools for children speaking English, German, Spanish, Italian,
Arabic and Portuguese
· MacLuhan American program at the international high school
· Japanese special schooling in Meylan secondary school
· The Cité Scolaire Internationale
f What is required? There are major differences between the
starting points above. If you want to be in and play for
high stakes then you have to widen your view. What scientists do we think will come to Lund? What languages will
be used? Do we want integrated teaching? What happens
in China? How can we increase young people’s interest in
science? How can the regions’ players and the LTH (and
other players in the association) improve the supply of
skills in natural science subjects?
The question of schooling was discussed during a study visit to
Grenoble. The school that was opened for the international scientists at the ESFR34 and ILL35 was also open to other children.
The quality of the teaching has made the school popular and
the pupils are both ‘research children’ and residents. According
to representatives for the facility, experience has shown that a
mix stimulates an exchange between the facility and the local
community.
Apart from the research community, Grenoble is most well
known as an Olympic town and for superb skiing opportunities as it is situated in a bowl in the middle of the French Alps.
f Dwellings, arenas for sharing knowledge, buildings – what
will they look like? Do we work with iconic buildings
aimed at drawing, challenging and attracting attention?
f What values do Lund, the region and Sweden have that
can be developed into international magnets? How do we
package the messages so that they can be heard and seen,
smell and taste of the future?
Oxfordshire, Great Britain – European school in Culham
The school started in 1975 with the aim of teaching children to
the scientists who worked at the neighbouring European Torus
project. Today the school has pupils from the surrounding international community. The school has five language sections,
German, English, French, Italian and Dutch. Danish is also
available. Teaching is in the pupils’ native language.
The Rutherford Appleton Laboratory with the ISIS and
Diamond are in Oxfordshire on a former RAF base. There
are a number of closed air bases including one of England’s
most well preserved. The expansion plans of the surrounding
municipalities are limited by an Area of Outstanding Natural
Beauty. It is interesting to note that both the Inspector Morse
and Midsummer Murders series were recorded in the area.
About Lund
Lund is a city of contrasts where 1,000 years of history blend with
modern knowledge and visions. Here you will also find small town
charm side by side with the attractions and conveniences of a major
conurbation.
Lund University plays a key role and with over 40,000 students
and more researchers than any other Scandinavian university it gives
the city a young and inquiring atmosphere.
Village life
In the municipality, close to the city but within a convenient distance
in beautiful countryside, are Dalby, Södra Sandby, Veberöd and
Genarp.
Within the Municipality’s boundaries there is heavily exploited agricultural land – large acreages of single crops on the Lund plain. But
there are also areas that are small or untouched such as the Vomb
depression with the lake Krankesjön and parts of the Häckeberga district. The parts of the Vomb depression that are the military training
ground and nature reserve near Klingavälsån have very interesting
flora and fauna. Parts of Häckeberga’s woods are among the most
valuable deciduous woodland environments in Skåne.
Future challenges
The Municipality of Lund is ready. In order to exploit the challenges that building the ESS, together with MAX IV and the
associated growth expectations will bring in the best way it is
a question of rising from the starting blocks and sprinting. It
may seem a long while to 2018 and, before the decision on the
siting is made, the Municipality is taking a somewhat wait-andsee position attitude.
Source: The Municipality of Lund’s website
34 European Synchrotron Radiation Facility
35 Institut Laue-Langevin
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6.7 Estimated minimum and maximum
growth with the ESS
Scenario Vision. The ESS becomes an isolated research facility
with very limited effects on the surrounding society. As can
be seen in figures 30 and 31, the long-term and indirect effect
is decisive and the greatest. If the ESS does not result in these
effects then the effect on Skåne’s growth will be marginal.
Scenario Max assumes that the ESS gives long-term, positive effects on the innovation system, the creation of technological answers that can be converted into competitive products
and companies over and above that which is imagined in Scenario Vision. In Scenario Max, the effect is more lasting than in
Scenario Vision. The significance of the facility remains strong
and has not been noticeably affected by the building of other
facilities or the like. This is, as in Scenario Vision, a scenario
where the various sectors in society succeed very well in exploiting the opportunities of the ESS. Here the ESS also becomes a
catalyst for Skåne’s growth as a research centre.
Figure 30 shows the difference between the GRP for Scenario Vision and Scenario Min and Max. As is also shown in
figure 30 the GRP in Skåne is SEK 16 billion higher in 2040 in
Scenario Vision than would have been the case without the ESS.
Accumulatively Scenario Vision means a GRP during the period
2010–2040 that altogether is SEK 214 billion higher, that is to
say the sum of Scenario Vision (red bars). Figure 30 also shows
the significance of the indirect effects that are assumed to have
an effect from 2019 when the facility is operational. Furthermore, the diagram shows that Scenario Min only has marginal
effects that Scenario Vision has a significantly greater but diminishing growth rate and that Scenario Max means an unchanged
higher growth curve during the period. It is important to view
these changes in the light of Skåne’s forecast of a total GRP of
SEK 648 billion in 2040. This is confirmed by figure 31.
The basis of this part of the report is to quantify the effects of
building the ESS in Lund. In previous sections we have started
from a Scenario Base and added the expected effects of the
ESS. In this section we add two results – Min and Max.
Earlier in this chapter the effects of the ESS were estimated
from its effects on economic growth. As we said earlier, these
effects are of two types. Partly direct through a certain sum of
money being invested in Skåne that creates jobs and increased
demand, partly the effects that arise from the facility’s significance for the climate of innovation, technological development
and spin-offs. In this scenario which means that the ESS is
built, called Scenario Vision in table 14, the ESS acts like a
catalyst for growth in Skåne, and in this scenario Skåne has
succeeded well in accepting the facility and exploited the longterm effects that the facility can provide.
Table 14 shows the difference between the GRP for Scenario
Vision and Scenario Min and Max. Table 14 also shows Scenario Base. The effect of the ESS has been added to Scenario
Base. For example, Scenario Base assumes a growth in GRP of
2.0 per cent. With the ESS, the annual average growth in this
scenario will be 2.08 per cent. This means in turn that the GRP
in Skåne will be SEK 16 billion higher in 2040 with the ESS,
SEK 664 billion instead of SEK 648 billion.
Scenario Min result assumes that none of the effects that
are connected to the impact of the facility on the climate of innovation, technological development and spin-offs take place.
In this scenario only the direct investments affect Skåne which
means that the facility has only been an SEK 13 billion investment without links to research and development. Scenario Min
result is a scenario where the various sectors of society do not
succeed in exploiting the opportunities that are estimated in
The effect of the ESS on various
variables
Scenario Bas with ESS
Scenario Bas
without ESS
Min
Vision
Compared with ÖRIB scenario
Max
Baseline
Competitiveness
Annual growth in GRP, %
2.00
0.01
0.08
0.12
–
–
Difference in GRP 2040 with ESS, SEK billion
648
1
16
26
–
–
15 500
35
214
302
–
–
2 200
63
700
1 100
2 250
4 950
620 000
2 000
23 000
35 000
–
–
5 500
50
500
760
5 400
8 650
Increase in demand for office space
–
600
7 000
11 500
–
–
Increase in hotel demand, bed-nights
–
–
13 500
–
–
–
Accumulated higher GRP with ESS, SEK billion
Annual increase in no. employed
Difference in no. employed 2040 with ESS
Annual increase in demand for dwellings
Table 14. Growth calculations for the ESS effect on different variables. Source: SCB, ÖRIB, ITPS, Region Skåne compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
73
SEK billion
Difference in GRP with ESS in Min, Vision and Max scenarios
30
25
20
15
10
5
Scenario Min
Scenario Vision
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
0
Scenario Max
Figure 30. The development of GRP with time. Source: SCB, Region Skåne, ITPS, compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
GRP, SEK billion
Scenario Base and Scenario Vision
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Scenario Bas
Scenario Vision
Figure 31. Skåne’s GRP in different cases. Source: SCB, Region Skåne, ITPS, compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
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2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
0
7. Summary and conclusions – quantitative
average increase of employed persons which has been almost
7,000 persons per annum during the last decade and just over
1,000 persons per annum during the last 25 years. In the Base
Scenario we can see that the average increase without the ESS
is estimated to be 2,200 people, therefore we must add the
number of jobs created by the ESS to get a true figure, i.e.
2,900 persons per annum.
If the ESS facility only has a marginal effect on the surrounding society, the accumulated minimum effect of the ESS on
Skåne’s GRP up until 2040 is estimated to be SEK 35 billion.
The accumulated maximum effect of the ESS facility on
Skåne’s GRP up until 2040 is estimated to be SEK 302 billion.
The expected accumulated effect of the ESS facility on Skåne’s
GRP providing, for example, that there is good collaboration with
the most important players in the community as described in this
report’s vision scenario, is estimated to be SEK 214 billion.
The purpose of the quantitative analysis is to describe the
effects the building of the ESS facility can have on various sectors. A number of these sectors are considered from the point
of view of innovation, economic growth and employment.
Other sectors are considered from the point of view of what is
required from a functional point of view and attractiveness.
Our timeframe is to set our sights on 2020 with 2040 on
the horizon. To get a better understanding of what we are looking at, if we turn the clock back to 1976 we would be setting
our sights on 1988 with 2008 on the horizon. Important historical facts during those years include an oil crisis, a financial
crisis, improved EU collaboration, the fall of the Berlin Wall, a
global IT revolution, the opening of the Öresund Link and the
fact that Malmö has been transformed from an industrial city
to a knowledge and service centre etc.
Over and above this, what nobody believed could ever happen has happened, a global finance crisis. This fact is unlikely
to have any marked affect on life in 2040 and the long-term
decisions that are now being taken, but, in the short term, the
establishment of the ESS facility will be even more important
for the region.
The effects of the ESS on the property market
If the aforesaid forecasts are proved right the increase in the demand
for dwellings in Skåne will be in the region of 500 per annum. This
can be compared with the fact that an average of 3,500 dwellings
per annum have been built in Skåne in the last ten years and almost
4,700 in the last five years. The ÖRIB Scenario Baseline estimates
the average number of dwellings that will be built per annum by
2045 to be 5,400. The target for the regional development programme for Skåne is 5,000 new dwellings per annum.
An increase in the number of office workers will also require
more office space. If 50 per cent of the anticipated increase of 700
in the number of employed are office workers it can be argued
that there will be an increase in annual demand of approximately
7,000 m² in Skåne as a result of the ESS facility. This can be compared with the annual demand for office space by LTH and Ideon
which is put at 12,000 m²; this includes Sony Ericsson.
The increase in the number of office workers in Malmö
from 2000 and 2006 has averaged 1,000 a year; this represents
a demand for 20,000 m² per year – we estimate that each office
worker requires an extra 20 m² of space. The increase in the
number of office workers in Lund has averaged approximately
800 persons per annum; this represents a demand for an additional 16,000 m² of office space. The figures for Helsingborg
are approximately 500 people requiring 10,000 m².
Just where the estimated growth is realised, is based on the assumption that the current pattern of commuting and preferred residential areas are constant. However the growth will be influenced
by the initiatives taken by the various districts to encourage people
and companies that rent office space to move to their districts.
The effects of the ESS on growth
There are primarily two ESS related factors that will affect growth
in the region; the first, the direct effects are based on the fact that
a given sum of money is invested and creates employment and a
demand for goods and services, and a second, that is more difficult
to quantify, is the facility’s importance for technological developments, innovative climate and spin-off effects or spill-over.
All the estimates that have been concluded made indicate
that it is the long-term effects that are the decisive and most
important factors. If the ESS results in long-term positive effects on the innovation system and the finding of technological
answers that can benefit competitive companies and products,
then the effects will be in line with or better than the aforementioned estimates. If this is not the case and the facility turns
out to be just a big investment, then the effects on the region’s
growth will be marginal. In other words it is of critical importance that the ESS facility is accepted and welcomed by the
surrounding society. A basic principle for estimating the effects
of the ESS facility pivots on the acceptance of how investments
in the facility will result in increased growth. These presuppose
that the ESS facility results in the aforementioned long-term effects. If this is the case, the construction of the facility will lead
to an approximate average annual increase of 0.8 per cent in
the GRP in Skåne and an approximate average annual increase
of 700 people in employment in Skåne up until 2040.
The effects of the ESS can be seen as small if one considers
that there are almost 550,000 persons employed in Skåne, but
the effects can be seen as greater if we compare them with the
The effects of the ESS on the infrastructure
ÖRIB estimate that road traffic will increase by 30 per cent by
2045 and as a consequence the roads will become more heavily
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There is good reason to comment on the internationalisation
of university studies, a factor that has created an international
demand for students. This has led to both opportunities and
threats for those who need to guarantee a long-term supply
of the right skills. The best researchers will be in short supply
and it will be important to be ‘eye-catching’, to have created a
brand that attracts, involves and creates curiosity.
In this context it is important to encourage interest in
technical education and ensure an adequate supply of graduate engineers. However, as education is now a global business
and there is a market for students it is even more important to
create attractive study and research environments as this will
encourage graduates to stay in the country and attract other
students from overseas and the Continent. In other words it is
important to ensure a brain-gain rather than a brain-drain.
Within R&D, a number of forms of investment have been designed that will support the development and realisation of ideas,
business incubators, office space and business development centres
in a central and knowledge fostering context.
trafficked. If the roads are to meet the additional pressure large
investments must be made, for example the E22 will need additional investments, an extra lane in both directions will be
needed on the E6 between Malmö and Helsingborg and a new
fixed link across the sound at Helsingborg–Helsingør must be
constructed.
Skånetrafiken has forecast an annual increase of six per cent
increase in rail traffic up until 2037. This means that a number
of railway lines will reach capacity and new investments will be
required; the Malmö/Lund line and the west coast line are two
examples as is the building of a high-speed line and the transfer
of the Lund link to a track-bound city network.
We believe that all infrastructure investments that are
planned before 2010 will be completed in line with The Öresund Region 2025, Baseline Scenario 2025.
If the road and rail infrastructure is extended at a pace that
will absorb increased traffic without the ESS facility and based
on the forecast that there will be 23,000 new jobs in Skåne by
2040, that is to say 700 new jobs a year, the current investments will manage the growth, however, the building of the
ESS makes the investments even more critical.
The direct effects of the ESS facility on the ports of the
Öresund Region are marginal.
The building of the ESS facility creates a need for a well run
airport. The ESS facility’s closeness to both Malmö Airport and
Copenhagen Airport means that this demand can be satisfied.
The important thing is to be able to offer international flights
from the region.
The current energy availability situation in Skåne is good. It
is possible to supply the ESS facility with all necessary energy
without causing a problem. The objective is to ensure that the
supply of energy to the ESS is solved in the most environmentfriendly way.
The telecommunications sector is currently experiencing
a period of strong growth and Skåne can boast an extensive
telecommunications infrastructure; the building of the ESS
facility should heighten interest from telecommunications
companies to play an even more active role.
The effects of the ESS on the public service sector
According to the ESS secretariat, the ESS can occasion an increase of approximately 200 non-Swedish children/adolescents.
The Municipality of Lund has the experience to take care of an
unpredictable international pupil population and are prepared,
for example, to organise English language schools. Today there
are no local government preschools with English as the day-today language, however there are a number of private initiatives
that satisfy this requirement as well as a bilingual Montessori
kindergarten.
The rebuilding of Parkskolan, a part of Katedralskolan
(school), means that the school will soon be able to increase
its international school intake from 100 to 200 students. If the
ESS facility is built in Lund there are plans to extend the international school at Parkskolan; such extensions can be achieved
as the ESS effect grows. On full completion the school will be
able to accommodate 300 international students. The rebuilding and extensions will be completed by 2012.
The Municipality of Lund has pointed out that there must be
some form of collaboration between the municipalities of Skåne
in order to remove any worries for ESS research parents living in
other municipalities about schooling in Lund for their children.
The municipalities of Skåne believe that the arts in their
respective towns, cities and regions hold an international
standard, however it is not possible to know exactly what the
ESS will lead to and what particular forms of the arts will be
asked for. The question still arises as to whether the arts in this
context are competitive and international in their form.
The effects of the ESS on R&D
Great demands will be put on society to serve the ESS with
highly qualified researchers and technicians who can support
the requirement to translate research results and innovations
into useful and marketable products and services. This cannot
be the work of a specific authority as it requires collaboration
between various levels of society as well as with industry, universities and research centres. The supply of skilled people and
the resulting commercialisation of innovations are of critical
importance as is the support the surrounding community can
provide.
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