Legend
State of the labour market scorecard - August 2016
Weakness
GDP
Labour utilisation (hours worked)
Strength
–
+
–
▲0.7% quarterly change (Mar 16)
+
Change since Mar 2016: Increased
Outlook for Sep 2016: Improving
Employment growth was up 2.4 per cent (or 58,000)
over the quarter and by 4.5 per cent (105,000
people) over the year.
The employment rate increased 1.0 percentage point
(pp) to 66.2 per cent in this quarter, and by 1.1pp
compared with the rate last year.
The changes in the employment indicators are
difficult to interpret due to methodological changes
in survey. However, there is still a consistent picture
of a strong labour market.
+
–
Labour supply
–
Labour quality
Change since Mar 2016: Increased
Change since Mar 2016: Improved
Outlook for Sep 2016: Steady
Outlook for Sep 2016: Improving
Outlook for Sep 2016: Improving
The unemployment rate fell to 5.1 per cent from a
revised rate of 5.2 per cent last quarter, with 1,000
fewer people unemployed over the June quarter.
Unemployment rates decreased for men and women,
with the rate for women down by 0.3pp (to 5.4%) and
that for men by 0.1pp (to 4.7%) over the quarter.
The unemployment rate decreased by 0.7pp to 5.2 per
cent in the North Island while the rate increased by
0.5pp to 4.1 per cent in the South Island over the year
to June 2016.
Note: NEET numbers should be interepreted with caution due
to changes in the survey.
+
Workplace performance
Change since Mar 2016: Improved
The NEET rate decreased by 1.7pp to 10.7 per cent in
the June 2016 quarter - the lowest NEET rate since
September 2008.
Change since Dec 2015: Improved
Outlook for Jun 2016: Improving
The labour force participation rate rose by 0.9pp
to 69.7 per cent in the June 2016 quarter. The
change was driven by strong migration gains but
may be affected by change in the survey.
The proportion of people aged 25 to 34 years with
NCEA level 4 or higher qualifications increased by
3.0pp to 56.5% in the year to June 2016.
The share of people working in skilled occupations
increased by 0.5pp to 62.3% in the year to March
2016.
Participation for men and women increased by
1.0pp and 0.9pp over the quarter to 75.2 per cent
and 64.6 per cent, respectively.
In 2015, 83.3% of all 18 year-olds attained the
equivalent of NCEA level 2 or above, up 2.1pp from
2014. Māori had the largest increase in the
proportion of leavers attaining at least level 2 over
the year.
Annual pay increases in the private sector that were
due to productivity related factors averaged 1.4%
between June 2016 and June 2015.
Net permanent and long-term (PLT) migration
showed a record gain of 69,100 people in the June
2016 year. The countries contributing the biggest
net gains in migration were India, China, the
Philippines and the United Kingdom.
New Zealand citizens still show a net loss but the
level has declined compared to a year ago.
88.4% of all school leavers attained at least NCEA
Level 1 or equivalent in 2015, up 7.5pp from 2009.
Note: Some contributing indicators are only available up to
March 2016 and for 2015. School level qualifications will be
updated in July 2017.
Employment confidence fell in the June 2016
quarter, and is below its five year average as
workers' perception of their own job security
declined.
Note: The headline indicator is only available up to March
2016 and some contributing indicators are only available up
to 2014.
Headline indicator:
Headline indicator:
Headline indicator:
Headline indicator:
Headline indicator:
Employment
Unemployment rate
5.1% (Jun 16)
▼0.1pp on Mar 16
Labour force participation rate
69.7% (Jun 16)
▲0.9pp on Mar 16
Qualification attainment rate
Skilled occupation rate
62.3% are in skilled work (Mar 16)
▲0.5pp on Mar 15
2.46m (Jun 16)
▲2.4% on Mar 16
2016
2006
Jun 06
2.14m
+
–
Labour market matching
Labour demand
Labour productivity (output per hour worked)
Mar 16
2.40m
Jun 16
2.46m
Annual
▲4.5%
Qrtly
▲2.4%
2016
2016
Jun 06
3.7%
2016
Jun 15
5.5%
Mar 16
5.2%
Jun 16
5.1%
Annual
▼0.4pp
Qrtly
▼0.1pp
Jun 06
68.4%
2016
2006
2006
2006
Jun 15
2.36m
25 to 34 year olds with level 4+ quals
336,700 (56.5%) in the year to Jun 16
▲3.0pp on Jun 15
Mar 16
68.8%
Jun 15
68.9%
Jun 16
69.7%
Annual
▲0.8pp
Qrtly
▲0.9pp
2006
49.1%
2006
2015
53.5%
2016
56.5%
Annual
▲3.0pp
Mar 06
58.0%
Mar 15
61.8%
Dec 15
61.9%
Mar 16
62.3%
Annual
▲0.5pp
Contributing indicators:
Contributing indicators:
Contributing indicators:
Contributing indicators:
Contributing indicators:
Employment by gender
Unemployment by gender
Participation by gender
Degree holders in the workforce
Skilled occupation rate
Jun 16 (ann. change since Jun 15)
Part-time
Full-time
Male
Female
Total
▲4.2%
▼1.4%
▲0.1%
Jun 16
Quarterly
Rate
All
▲4.2%
▲8.1%
▲5.7%
▲4.2%
▲4.8%
▲4.5%
Annual
▼0.1pp
▼0.8pp
▼0.1pp
▼0.3pp
4.7%
Male
5.4%
Female
35.7% of unemployed deemed 'long-term'
(i.e. unemployed more than 6 months)
Male
Female
75.2%
64.6%
Employment by work period
Underutilisation rate by gender
Jun 16 (qtr. change since Mar 16)
Part-time
Full-time
All
▼0.2%
▲3.5%
▲2.4%
Quarterly
Jun 16
Male
Female
Employment by industry
Rate
Quarterly
Annual
10.1%
15.6%
▼1.1pp
▼1.1pp
▼0.1pp
▼0.9pp
Jun 16 (ann. change since Jun 15)
Youth not in employment, education, or
training
Biggest rises
Wholesale Trade
Public Admin. and Safety
Ag, Forestry, Fishing
▲38.1%
▲13.2%
▲8.9%
Biggest falls
Mining
Information Media, Telecom
Transport, Post, Warehouse
▼36.2%
▼13.2%
▼11.0%
15 - 24 yr olds
15 - 19 yr olds
20 - 24 yr olds
Quarterly
10.7%
6.8%
14.3%
Annual
▼0.8pp
▼0.8pp
▼0.9pp
▼1.7pp
▼2.0pp
▼1.5pp
Employment rate by ethnicity
European
Māori
Pacific
Asian
Jun
Jun 16
16
Rate
Annual
67.4%
60.9%
59.2%
66.4%
▲0.5pp
▲3.5pp
▲2.8pp
▲0.7pp
Employment by region
Jun 16
'000
Auckland
Waikato
Wellington
Canterbury
Otago
842.8
227.1
280.8
334.2
113.2
2015
Difficulty finding skilled labour
Jun-16
Unemployment rate by ethnicity
Jun 16
Rate
European
Māori
Pacific
Asian
3.8%
11.0%
9.1%
5.3%
Annual
▼0.2pp
▼1.2pp
▼1.0pp
▼1.1pp
Participation rate by ethnicity
Jun 16
Rate
European
Māori
Pacific
Asian
Annual
Auckland
Waikato
Wellington
Canterbury
Otago
Jun 16
Rate
4.7%
4.8%
5.3%
3.2%
4.5%
70.1%
68.4%
65.1%
70.2%
New Zealand
Male
Female
European
Māori
Pacific
Asian
Annual
▼1.2pp
▲0.2pp
▲0.2pp
▲0.2pp
▲0.7pp
Auckland
Waikato
Wellington
Canterbury
Otago
69.1%
68.6%
73.4%
71.5%
66.2%
Private sector productivity-related wage
growth
average 2012- 2014
Work-related fatal injury
Rate
Annual
Since 2009
11.6%
12.9%
10.2%
8.5%
23.6%
14.8%
5.2%
▼0.9pp
▼1.0pp
▼0.8pp
▼0.8pp
▼1.9pp
▼1.6pp
▼0.1pp
▼7.5pp
▼8.4pp
▼6.7pp
▼5.9pp
▼13.1pp
▼11.5pp
▼5.5pp
2.2 per 100,000 workers in 2012- 2014
▼31.5% on 2011- 2013
Work-related serious non-fatal claims
16.2 per 100,000 workers in 2012- 2014
▼7.1% on 2011- 2013
Annual
▲0.4pp
▲3.0pp
▲2.4pp
▲0.1pp
Labour market efficiency
25 to 34 year olds with level 4+
qualifications by region
Mar 16
Participation rate by region
Jun 16
Rate
▲0.3pp
▲0.3pp
▲0.4pp
▲0.5pp
Work-related injuries
2015
2017: 1.2% per year
2022: 1.3% per year
2027: 1.5% per year
Annual
based on labour quality-related wage increases in
the private sector, collected in the Labour Cost
Index.
Est. retirements as a % of labour force:
▲0.6%
▼1.1%
Net 39% of firms found it harder to get skilled
staff than three months ago (net 30% in Jun 15).
83.3%
81.0%
85.8%
87.3%
71.1%
77.6%
88.8%
New Zealand
Male
Female
European
Māori
Pacific
Asian
2016 (2006 base)
▲0.2%
▲12.7%
63.4%
61.8%
65.7%
62.2%
Jun 16
% of school leavers with less than NCEA level 1
Retirement rates
Auckland
Waikato
Wellington
Canterbury
▲1.4% on Jun 2015
Rate
Full year to Jun 16: 31,800
▲11% on year ended Jun 15
Jul 15-Mar 16: 23,300 - up 10% on Jul 14-Mar 15
Unemployment rate by region
▲6.5%
▲3.4%
▲4.6%
▲2.9%
▼2.0%
% of 18 yr olds with a NCEA level 2 or higher
Net loss of 3,500 in year to Jun 16, compared
with a 6,000 loss (Jun 15)
Jun-16
2.2% p.a. employment growth to March 2017
2015
Net NZ citizen departures to Australia:
Advertised job vacancies
Monthly to Jun 16
Year to Jun 16
School level qualifications
Jun 16
Net gain of 69,100 in year to Jun 16,
compared with a 58,300 gain (Jun 15)
Vacancies/applicant (SEEK Employment Index)
Consensus employment forecasts
27.7% of the workforce (Mar-16)
▲1.7pp on Mar-15
Migration
Net migration:
Jul 16
All vacancies (Jobs Online)
Monthly to Jul 16
Year to Jul 16
▲0.7pp
▲1.0pp
▲1.0pp
▲0.9pp
Mar 16
Rate
Mar 16
Annual
Immigration (Essential Skills workers):
Jun 16
Rate
Jun 16
Quarterly
Rate
Rate
Annual
▲0.8pp
▲0.8pp
▲2.1pp
▲0.3pp
▼2.1pp
Auckland
Waikato
Wellington
Canterbury
Otago
Qrtly
▲0.4pp
61.1%
53.2%
62.8%
55.6%
59.0%
(Employer survey measure)
2015/16
NZ ranked 6th out of 140 countries
n/c from 2014/15
Annual
▲1.0pp
▲6.1pp
▲1.4pp
▲4.1pp
▲1.0pp
Employment Confidence Index
(Employee survey measure)
Jun 16
▼3.3pp on Mar 2016
▼1.3pp on Jun 2015