Environmental Performance Simulation From evaluating performance to suggesting new forms for buildings and neighborhoods DIVA Christoph Reinhart Simulation Games Urban Scorecard Barcelona Global Energy Challenges Energy in Buildings and Cities – June 13 2013 Climate Change and Finance Cambridge Solar Map Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Architecture Building Technology Program Sustainable Design Lab @ MIT Carlos Cerezo Karthik Dondeti Timur Dogan Diego Ibarra (GSD) Kristian Fennessy Alstan Jakubiec Nathaniel Jones Christoph Reinhart Krista Palen John Sullivan Tarek Rakha Zahraa Saiyed “Our research goal is to change current sustainable design practice by developing, validating and testing workflows and metrics that lead to improved design solutions as far as occupant comfort and health as well as building energy use are concerned. The premise of this work is that an informed decision is a better decision.” 1 Our work has been supported by Natural Resources Canada 2 Solar Buildings 1978 Two-storey sunspace Thermal mass Active air circulation 83% solar heated Balcomb Residence, Santa Fe, NW (around 1978) Photo taken from Lechner, Sun Wind and Light Green Buildings 1991 South-exposed half cylinder Air-to-ground heat exchanger Ventilation-heat-recovery Solar Hot Water Photovoltaics 4.2kWpeak Transparent insulating panels Fuel cells and hydrogen tanks Self-sufficient solar house Freiburg, 1991 Architecture: Planerwerkstatt Hölken & Berghoff 3 Green Buildings 2007 ‘Made in Germany’, triple glazing, Phase Change Materials, exterior wooden shutters, PV on the roof, integrated lighting system, clear architectural forms Solar Decathlon Winner 2007 (Team Germany) Photo taken from flckr.com Basic Hypothesis Saving energy in the building sector has largely become an issue of system integration and information sharing. 4 Building Performance Simulation Building Performance Simulation: An computer-based attempt to model the various energy and mass flows within a building in order to predict one or several performance aspects of a design. Operational Energy Return on Investment Solar Radiation Occupant Comfort Daylight Walkability Today’s Presentation From evaluating performance to suggesting new forms Environmental performance simulations are now capable of predicting the physical performance of commonly used building typologies and technologies. Parts of this analysis can be done by architects and planners themselves. Is this true/desirable? How can we make sure that designers are using the tools accurately and effectively? We are now moving toward whole city energy models in which different energy flows are monitored are optimized. 5 Why Environmental Performance Simulation? To demonstrate code compliance and to reduce risk. To compare different design variants. Do today’s simulation programs work? 6 ASHRAE thinks so. Purpose of the Standard Analyzing and diagnosing building energy simulation software using software-to-software and software-toanalytical-solution comparisons. Checking a program against a previous version of itself after internal code modifications such as an algorithmic change. ASHRAE 140 -2007 Standard Method for the Evaluation of Building Energy Analysis Computer Programs Uncle Sam thinks so, too. Tax Deduction Information Under IRS rules, taxpayers' building energy use performance must be calculated using software that has been tested according to ANSI/ASHRAE Standard 140 to qualify for tax deductions. 7 “I have heard that LEED certified buildings, which are designed based on BPS, do often not save as much energy as predicted by the simulation.” Energy Performance of LEED Buildings New Buildings Institute (NBI) Study (2008) For all 121 LEED buildings the median measured EUI was 24% below the CBECS national average [for 2003]. www.gbci.org/ShowFile.aspx?DocumentID=3598 Note: 552 LEED-NC buildings were certified in 2006 8 Performance of LEED Buildings LEED‐NBI data, CBECS matching by Newsham et al, 2009 Figure from Daylighting Handbook (Reinhart) LEED buildings have on average a 30% lower EUI (Energy Use Intensity). A third of LEED buildings had a higher EUI than their matched CBEC counterpart. “If the energy use of LEED buildings can be so high, did the computer simulations predict this?” 9 Comparison of measured and simulated energy use for 97 LEED Buildings Model uncertainty from weather, infiltration rate, usage schedule and occupant behavior. Paper H W Samuelson, A Lantz and C F Reinhart, "Non-technical barriers to energy model sharing and reuse", Building and Environment, 54, pp. 71-76, 2012. But, models can be calibrated… PhD thesis H W Samuelson (Harvard GSD, May 2013) 10 Need for Commissioning Source USGBC; Figure from Daylighting Handbook (Reinhart) Today’s Presentation From evaluating performance to suggesting new forms √ Environmental performance simulations are now capable of predicting the physical performance of commonly used building typologies and technologies. Parts of this analysis can be done by the designers themselves. Is this true/desirable? How can we make sure that designers are using the tools accurately and effectively? We are now moving toward whole city energy models in which different energy flows are monitored are optimized. 11 Teaching Modeling Simulation Checklist Book Chapter: Reinhart C F, “Simulation-based Daylight Performance Predictions“ in Building Performance Simulation for Design and Operation, Editors J Hensen and R Lamberts, Taylor & Francis, 2011 12 Spring 2012 MIT 4.430 Daylighting Spring 2012 MIT 4.430 Daylighting Simulation of 10.485. Practicing good simulation habits. Building trust in one’s own modeling skills. Paper: Ibarra D, Reinhart C F, "TEACHING DAYLIGHT SIMULATIONS – IMPROVING MODELING WORKFLOWS FOR SIMULATION NOVICES”, Proceedings Building Simulation 2013 13 How do we reach the architects not interested in taking electives on simulation? Question to Architects: “How frequently do simulation results influence the design of your buildings?” Paper H W Samuelson, A Lantz and C F Reinhart, "Non-technical barriers to energy model sharing and reuse", Building and Environment, 54, pp. 71-76, 2012. 14 The Game … Human Cluster [Experts] Simulation Queue Searching for the winning combination… C F Reinhart, T Dogan, D Ibarra and H W Samuelson, "Learning by doing - Teaching energy simulation as a game", Journal of Building Performance Simulation, October 2011. Simulation Order Form Provided by Modeler 15 Results: Final Designs EUIs of the 10 final designs were 22–31% below the base variant. Building massings chosen by the different groups diverged significantly revealing that a performance based design analysis does not necessarily lead to converging architectural solutions. Today’s Presentation From evaluating performance to suggesting new forms √ Environmental performance simulations are now capable of predicting the physical performance of commonly used building typologies and technologies. √ Parts of this analysis can be done by the designers themselves. Is this true/desirable? How can we make sure that designers are using the tools accurately and effectively? We are now moving toward whole city energy models in which different energy flows are monitored are optimized. 16 Great, I am ready to try this, which performance metrics shall I use to improve my daylighting/passive design? Definition of a ‘well daylit space’ A space that is primarily lit with natural light and that combines a high occupant satisfaction with the visual and thermal environment with low overall energy use for lighting, heating and cooling. Figure from Daylighting Handbook (Reinhart) Paper: C F Reinhart and J Wienold, "The Daylighting Dashboard - A Simulation-Based Design Analysis for Daylit Spaces", accepted for publication in Building and Environment, 2010. 17 Daylighting Dashboard Question: Should I specify blinds or not? % Occupied hours Daylit Area: 73% of the space Potential glare: 50% of the year 44% of the space no glare View: 100% 50% Paper Reinhart C F, J Wienold, “The Daylighting Dashboard - A Simulation-Based Design Analysis for Daylit Spaces”. Building and Environment, 2011 46:2 386-396 DIVA for Rhino Rhino Model Climate‐based Metrics Daysim Annual Glare Maps Daysim Thermal Loads EnergyPlus Paper: K Lagios, J Niemasz and C F Reinhart, "Animated Building Performance Simulation (ABPS) - Linking Rhinoceros/Grasshopper with Radiance/Daysim", Proceedings of SimBuild 2010, New York City, August 2010 J A Jakubiec and C F Reinhart, DIVA-for-Rhino 2.0: Environmental parametric modeling in Rhinoceros/Grasshopper using Radiance, Daysim and EnergyPlus, Proceedings of Building Simulation 2011, Sydney, November 2011 18 So, now that we have an analysis framework for daylighting. Let’s design something. DIVA for Rhino Grasshopper Rhino Model Visualizations Radiance Visual Comfort Evalglalre Climate‐based Metrics Daysim Radiation Maps GenCumulativeSky Annual Glare Maps Daysim Thermal Loads EnergyPlus Paper: K Lagios, J Niemasz and C F Reinhart, "Animated Building Performance Simulation (ABPS) - Linking Rhinoceros/Grasshopper with Radiance/Daysim", SimBuild 2010, New York City, August 2010 J A Jakubiec and C F Reinhart, DIVA-for-Rhino 2.0: Environmental parametric modeling in Rhinoceros/Grasshopper using Radiance, Daysim and EnergyPlus, Building Simulation 2011, Sydney, November 2011 19 Animated Building Performance Simulation Simulation: J Niemasz and K Lagios Zollverein by SAANA 20 Environmental Performance combined with a Genetic Algorithms Determine a box shape with maximum enclosed volume and annual solar radiation exposure in Boston (Niemasz) This looks a bit like trying to have monkeys play Shakespeare. Can we do better? 21 SHADERADE - Generating the Next Generation of Shading Systems Conventional Shading Non Performing Shading SHADERADE Design: Jeff Niema sz How to Design a Static Shading System Step 1 Identify the cooling period Mar 21 – Sep 21 Solstices Heating vs. Cooling Degree Days Hourly Load Profile 22 How to Design a Static Shading System Step 2 Find a form that shades my window during cooling period 2 dimensional method Autodesk Ecotect Static Exterior Shading: SHADERADE Surround Shade Paper: J Sargent, J Niemasz, C F Reinhart, “SHADERADE: Combining Rhinoceros and EnergyPlus for the design of static exterior shading devices”, Building Simulation 2011, Sydney, November 2011. 23 Static Exterior Shading: SHADERADE Once the volume has been assessed, any surface within its bounds can be visualized: Surround Shade Static Exterior Shading: SHADERADE Trimming away regions with negative value (cutoff = 0): Surround Shade 24 Static Exterior Shading: SHADERADE Horizontal and surround shades Load optimized, 85% value trim: Anchorage Boston Phoenix Static Exterior Shading: SHADERADE Horizontal and surround shades, Carbon optimized, 85% value trim: (COP of 1.67, 0.83 for cooling, heating; carbon equivalent factors of 0.232, 0.758 kg/kWh for gas , electricity) Anchorage Boston Phoenix 25 Recent Developments J Sargent & J Niemasz Future Price Scenarios S Holmes, C Reinhart 26 Climate Change Predictions A General Circulation Model (GCM) is a mathematical model of the general circulation of a planetary atmosphere or ocean. [Wikipedia] The IPCC Working Group III developed storylines which represent a potential range of different demographic, social, economic, technological and environmental developments (IPCC 2000). Climate Change Weather File Generator http://www.serg.soton.ac.uk/ccworldweathergen/index.html Generates future climate files for locations worldwide (with limitations) with a specific focus on the UK. It is based on the ‘morphing’ methodology. Belcher SE, Hacker JN, Powell DS. Constructing design weather data for future climates. Building Services Engineering Research and Technology 2005; 26 (1): 49-61. Jentsch MF, Bahaj AS, James PAB. Climate change future proofing of buildings - Generation and assessment of building simulation weather files. Energy and Buildings 2008; 40 (12): 2148-2168. 27 How large is the Effect? Harvard University – Gund Hall Gund Hall now DesignBuilder model Samuelson, Holmes, Reinhart 2011 33 Zone E+ model 1990 TMY2 weather data for Boston 28 Case Study: Gund Hall now and then 36% less heating 33 Zone E+ model 1990 TMY2 weather data for Boston predicted 2080 weather data for the IPCCCA2 scenario (medium to high emissions scenario). 45% more cooling Linking Future Climate Files with Future Prices Data Source: Economic Insights from Modeling Analyses of H.R. 2454 — the American Clean Energy and Security Act (Waxman-Markey); Pew Center for Global Climate Change The basic idea of the paper is to link 7 of the 22 energy price projections from the 2009 Energy modeling Forum (EMF-22) to the four climate change projections from the 3rd IPCC Assessment Report (TAR). The matching is realized via the Radiative Forcing (RF) of the different scenarios. RF is the change in net irradiance at the top of the tropopause compared to the year 1750. 29 Case Study: Office Building in Boston Generic 1980s office building, floor area 5000m2, 3 stories. Baseline: Building left as is. Minimum: Upgrade so that the building meets ASHREA 90.1-2004 (more efficient HVAC and windows (inoperable). $89,000 upgrade ∆ cost Medium: Same as previous but add mixed-mode ventilation & solar shading. $183,000 upgrade ∆ cost Advanced: Same as previous but double all insulation levels. $255,000 upgrade ∆ cost Case Study: Cumulative Energy Costs Paper: S H Holmes and C F Reinhart, Assessing future climate change and energy price scenarios for institutional building investment and HVAC operation, Building Research and Information, 41:2, pp. 209-222, 2013. 30 Case Study: Cumulative Energy Costs IRR highest for minimum upgrade. (It is tough, energy is cheap in this country.) Cooling dominated climates have higher IRRs. This does not necessarily translate into actions today. Today’s Presentation From evaluating performance to suggesting new forms √ Environmental performance simulations are now capable of predicting the physical performance of commonly used building typologies and technologies. √ Parts of this analysis can be done by the designers themselves. Is this true/desirable? √ How can we make sure that designers are using the tools accurately and effectively? We are now moving toward whole city energy models in which different energy flows are monitored are optimized. 31 Urban Modeling C Reinhart, J A Jakubiec, T Dogan, T Rakha Why should we care about energy use in cities? “In 2008, the world reached an invisible but momentous milestone: For the first time in history, more than half its human population […] was living in urban areas. In 2050 there will be 9 billion people.” United Nations Population Fund 32 Question: How to house 1.7 Billion City Dwellers in 17 Years? Solution 1: Let them figure it out themselves. Solution 2: Dense new construction. Informal Settlement in Rio Suburbs in Shanghai Cambridge Solar Map First combination of LiDAR data with advanced building simulation modules http://www.cambridgema.gov/solar/ 33 Photo of the MIT Campus (Google Maps). LiDAR Data of the MIT Campus 3 dimensional point cloud (126 million points). 34 GIS Model of Cambridge City ArcGIS model: Building Footprints, Exterior Cladding Materials, Ground Composition, Appraised Value and Renovations, Number of Floors, Building Type, Number of Bedrooms, Year of Construction 3D Model of the MIT Campus Generation of a 3D model through surface triangulation. 35 Solar Radiation Map Cumulative annual solar radiation. Impact of Roof Temperature on Solar Cell Efficiency Paper: A Jakubiec and C F Reinhart, A Method for Predicting City-Wide Electricity Gains from Photovoltaic Panels Based on LiDAR and GIS Data Combined with Hourly DAYSIM Simulations, Solar Energy (in press) 36 Cambridge Solar Map 2008 - 2011 http://www.cambridgema.gov/solar/ How accurate are the results? Annual Error 3.6% Annual Error 5.3% Paper: A Jakubiec and C F Reinhart, A Method for Predicting City-Wide Electricity Gains from Photovoltaic Panels Based on LiDAR and GIS Data Combined with Hourly DAYSIM Simulations, Solar Energy (in press) 37 (1) Get your Roof’s Solar Potential 38 PV Potential for Cambridge If we were up to the challenge we could generate a third of the city’s electricity use via PV. The cost would be in the order of $US 2.8 billion. Urban Modeling Umi is a new urban modeling platform to design and improve new and existing neighborhoods regarding multiple measures of urban sustainability including operational energy use, daylighting, outdoor comfort and sustainable transportation. Various effort are currently supported by: National Science Foundation US Department of Energy MIT Energy Initiative Transsolar Climate Engineering Government of Kuwait 39 Umi Workflow www.urbanmodeling.net Rhino Model 1 Landmark building with explicit mixed land-use 2 Residential block and single family housing units 3 Irregular courtyard composition with massive block 4 Row houses (in a straight line) 5 Park 6 Massing composition 7 Narrow courtyard complex with a relative hi-rise 8 Explicit mixed land use with wider courtyard 9 Widest courtyard with low-rise arrangement 40 Umi- Energy Paper: C F Reinhart T Dogan, J A Jakubiec, T Rakha, A and A Sang, “UMI – An urban simulation environment for building energy use, daylighting and walkability”, Building Simulation 2013, Chambery, France, August 2013. Umi- Daylight Hourly Exterior Solar Radiation (Daysim) Interior light solver Paper: T Dogan, C F Reinhart and P Michelatos, “Urban daylight simulation: Calculating the daylit area of urban designs”, Proceedings of SimBuild 2012, Madison, Wisconsin, USA. 41 Umi- Daylight Computed in Less than 30 minutes Paper: T Dogan, C F Reinhart and P Michelatos, “Urban daylight simulation: Calculating the daylit area of urban designs”, Proceedings of SimBuild 2012, Madison, Wisconsin, USA. Umi- Outdoor Comfort 42 Umi- Mobility Paper: T Rakha and C F Reinhart, “A carbon impact simulation-based framework for land use planning and non-motorized travel behavior interactions”, Submitted to Building Simulation 2013, Chambery, France, August 2013. 43 Example in Umi PassivHaus Neighborhood Umi- Transportation 44 Umi- Transportation Umi- Finance 45 Scorecard Closing Thoughts Modern simulation engines can provide more actionable information for energy saving measures to building owners, designers and planning boards. More comprehensive teaching of these tools is required. One-day workshop can only each individuals how to “press buttons”. It takes at least a term to appreciate how the BPS may truly inform design. We need new and more good performance metrics. Soon we will see whole city energy models in which different energy flows are monitored are optimized. 46 Thank You Contact Christoph Reinhart Associate Professor Massachusetts Institute of Technology Email: creinhart@mit.edu MIT Sustainable Design Lab Carlos Cerezo Karthik Dondeti Timur Dogan Diego Ibarra (GSD) Alstan Jakubiec Tarek Rakha John Sullivan Solemma LLC Alstan Jakubiec Kera Lagios Jeff Niemasz Jonnie Sargent mapdwell LLC Eduardo Berlin Alstan Jakubiec Alumni Seth Holmes, Elliot Glassman, Cynthia Kwan, Rohit Manudhane, Rashida Mogri, Azadeh Omidfar, Debashree Pal, Tiffany Otis, Holly W Samuelson, Devon Sparks, Jennifer Sze 47