Determining the Tipping Point
for the Effective Use of
Additive Manufacturing
Design & Manufacturing Conference
October 7, 2015
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AM Capabilities
Jet engine fuel nozzle
Titanium
Custom hearing aid
SLA Plastic
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Customized corn snouts
FDM Plastic
Rocket injector
Nickel-Chromium Alloy
Impeller
Stainless Steel (Bronze Infiltrated)
Integrated electronics
2
Primary Consideration
CAN ≠ SHOULD
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3
Primary Consideration
CAN ≠ SHOULD
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4
Primary Consideration
$
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5
About Senvol®
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6
Supply Chain Scenarios
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7
Supply Chain Scenarios
Scenario
Expensive to Manufacture
Long Lead Times
High Inventory Costs
Sole-Sourced from Suppliers
Remote Locations
High Import / Export Costs
Improved Functionality
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8
Senvol Algorithm
Status Quo
Total Cost
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VS.
Total
AM Cost
9
Senvol Algorithm
Design
• Time and cost
of designing
and redesigning
• Speed to end
user testing
Manufacturing
Supply Chain
Spare Parts &
Obsolescence
• Time and cost to
manufacture (e.g.
tooling, labor, materials,
machine cost, lead time,
number of machine
hours, minimum order
quantity etc.)
• Decision to manufacture
in-house or outsource
• Cost of qualification
testing or certification
• Time and cost of
transportation and
logistics
• Time and cost
associated with
import/export (e.g.
taxes, duties, tariffs,
quotas)
• Inventory cost,
warehousing cost and
cost of capital
• Opportunity cost if part
is unable to be supplied
on time
• Time and cost to
provide spare
parts
• Cost of part
obsolescence
and
unavailability as
equipment life is
extended
• Sole-sourcing
risk and
“lifetime” buy
situations
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10
Overview
1. Cost-effective use case – GE
2. Non cost-effective use case – Johnson Controls, Inc
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11
Case Study 1
Overview:
•GE Measurement & Controls Division
•5cm x 5cm x 9cm
•Aluminum alloy
•Custom variations
•Low (but highly variable) volume
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Case Study 1
Potential Benefits of AM:
•Reduction in manufacturing cost
•Elimination of component assembly
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13
Case Study 1
Scenario
Expensive to Manufacture
Long Lead Times
High Inventory Costs
Sole-Sourced from Suppliers
Remote Locations
High Import / Export Costs
Improved Functionality
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14
Scenarios for Analysis
0
Continue the status quo
(Make part via machining only)
Set to $0
1
Make part via AM metal only
+ $99,051
2
Make part via AM polymer only
- $100,534
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15
Cumulative total cost over 10 years
Total Cost Comparison (Monte Carlo)
AM Polymer
Machining
AM Metal
Note: Results of 100,000 Monte Carlo trial simulations
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16
Analysis Structure: Inputs & Outputs
Inputs
Cost: e.g. part cost,
shipping, assembly
Cost
Ordering: e.g.
orders/year,
units/order
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Outputs
Cumulative total cost
of each scenario
(over 10 years)
17
Analysis Structure: Inputs & Outputs
Inputs
Cost: e.g. part cost,
shipping, assembly
Cost
Ordering: e.g.
orders/year,
units/order
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Outputs
Cumulative total cost
of each scenario
(over 10 years)
18
AM Metal Cost
Estimated AM Metal Cost/Unit
Simulated AM Metal Cost/Unit
$1,600
$1,500
Y = 4.3x2-146.4x+1642
$1,500
$1,366
$1,300
$1,200
$1,242
$1,100
$1,125
$1,000
$1,018
$900
$918
$800
$828
Cost/unit
$700
$746
$673
$600
$608
$552
$504
$466
$435
$414$400
$500
$400
$300
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
# units ordered
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Cost/unit
$1,400
# units ordered
19
Machining vs. AM Metal Cost
# Units/Order # batches
1
1
2
1
3
1
4
1
5
1
6
1
7
1
8
1
9
1
10
1
11
1
12
1
13
1
14
1
15
1
16
1
17
2
18
2
19
2
20
2
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AM Metal Cost/Unit
$
1,500
$
1,366
$
1,242
$
1,125
$
1,018
$
918
$
828
$
746
$
673
$
608
$
552
$
504
$
466
$
435
$
414
$
400
$
465
$
508
$
533
$
545
AM Metal Cost/Order (incl.
Traditional
shipping)
Cost/Unit (incl.
Traditional
Assembly)
Cost/Order (incl. A
$
1,700 $
350 $
500
$
2,933 $
350 $
850
$
3,925 $
350 $
1,200
$
4,701 $
350 $
1,550
$
5,288 $
350 $
1,900
$
5,710 $
350 $
2,250
$
5,995 $
350 $
2,600
$
6,168 $
350 $
2,950
$
6,254 $
350 $
3,300
$
6,280 $
350 $
3,650
$
6,271 $
350 $
4,000
$
6,253 $
350 $
4,350
$
6,252 $
350 $
4,700
$
6,293 $
350 $
5,050
$
6,403 $
350 $
5,400
$
6,606 $
350 $
5,750
$
8,106 $
350 $
6,100
$
9,339 $
350 $
6,450
$
10,331 $
350 $
6,800
$
11,107 $
350 $
7,150
20
AM Polymer Cost
Estimated AM Polymer Cost/Unit
$750
Simulated AM Polymer Cost/Unit
Y = 2.14x2-73.05x+821
$750
$683
$650
$621
$550
$563
$509
$450
$460
$415
$374
$337
$305
$276
$253
$233
$218
$207$200
$250
$150
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
# units ordered
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Cost/unit
Cost/unit
$350
# units ordered
21
Machining vs. AM Polymer Cost
# Units/Order # batches
1
1
2
1
3
1
4
1
5
1
6
1
7
1
8
1
9
1
10
1
11
1
12
1
13
1
14
1
15
1
16
1
17
2
18
2
19
2
20
2
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AM Polymer Cost/Unit
$
750
$
683
$
621
$
563
$
509
$
460
$
415
$
374
$
337
$
305
$
276
$
253
$
233
$
218
$
207
$
200
$
232
$
254
$
267
$
273
AM Polymer Cost/Order (incl.
Traditional
shipping)
Cost/Unit (incl.
Traditional
Assembly)
Cost/Order (incl. As
$
950 $
350 $
500
$
1,567 $
350 $
850
$
2,063 $
350 $
1,200
$
2,452 $
350 $
1,550
$
2,746 $
350 $
1,900
$
2,958 $
350 $
2,250
$
3,102 $
350 $
2,600
$
3,188 $
350 $
2,950
$
3,232 $
350 $
3,300
$
3,245 $
350 $
3,650
$
3,240 $
350 $
4,000
$
3,231 $
350 $
4,350
$
3,229 $
350 $
4,700
$
3,248 $
350 $
5,050
$
3,301 $
350 $
5,400
$
3,401 $
350 $
5,750
$
4,151 $
350 $
6,100
$
4,768 $
350 $
6,450
$
5,264 $
350 $
6,800
$
5,653 $
350 $
7,150
22
Analysis Structure: Inputs & Outputs
Inputs
Cost: e.g. part cost,
shipping, assembly
Cost
Ordering: e.g.
orders/year,
units/order
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Outputs
Cumulative total cost
of each scenario
(over 10 years)
23
Total # Units Ordered/year
Stochastic Demand Forecasting
Year
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24
Analysis Structure: Inputs & Outputs
Inputs
Cost: e.g. part cost,
shipping, assembly
Cost
Ordering: e.g.
orders/year,
units/order
Senvol LLC | info@senvol.com
Outputs
Cumulative total cost
of each scenario
(over 10 years)
25
Total Cumulative Cost Comparison
AM Metal: +$99,051 on average
Traditional: $0
AM Polymer: -$100,534 on average
AM Polymer
Traditional
AM Metal
AM Polymer
Traditional
AM Metal
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26
Cost Sensitivity Analysis
AM Polymer Cumulative Total Cost
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27
Case Study 1 Summary
Impact:
•AM saves GE $100,000 over 10 years
•Focus on most impactful inputs
•In-house v. outsource
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28
Case Study 1
Scenario
Expensive to Manufacture
Long Lead Times
High Inventory Costs
Sole-Sourced from Suppliers
Remote Locations
High Import / Export Costs
Improved Functionality
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29
Case Study 2
Scenario
Expensive to Manufacture
Long Lead Times
High Inventory Costs
Sole-Sourced from Suppliers
Remote Locations
High Import / Export Costs
Improved Functionality
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30
Case Study 2
Overview:
•Johnson Controls, Inc. Automotive Division
•8.2 cu. in.
•Injected molded (polypropylene)
•~8,500 units / year
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31
Case Study 2
Goal:
•Determine which inputs have the greatest
impact on the cost of AM
•Determine which variables will need to
improve – and by what magnitude – in
order for AM to become cost-effective for
this type of part
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32
Scenarios for Analysis
0
Continue the status quo
(Make part via injection molding)
$2.64
1
AM SLS Polymer (sPro 230)
$39.42
2
AM SLS Polymer (ProX 500)
$83.38
3
AM SLS Polymer (Service Bureau)
$148.35
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33
Results and Cost Breakdown
$160
$140
Cost per Unit
$120
$100
Injection
Molding
$
1.99
$
0.36
$
0.14
$
0.15
Cost Component
Unit Purchase Price
New Tooling
Tooling Maintenance
Excess Operational Cost
Material Cost
AM Annual Services Cost
Redesign Cost
AM Machine Cost
Qualification Cost
Labor Cost
SB Unit Cost
SB Shipping cost
Total Cost per Unit
$
sPro™ 230
AM Service
ProX™ 500 Bureau (SB)
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2.64 $
26.65
1.69
0.01
9.42
1.50
0.15
39.42 $
26.65
12.68
0.01 $
29.90
11.25
2.89
$
$
83.38 $
SB Shipping cost
0.01
SB Unit Cost
Labor Cost
147.50
0.84
148.35
Qualification Cost
AM Machine Cost
Redesign Cost
$80
AM Annual Services Cost
$60
Material Cost
$40
Excess Operational Cost
Tooling Maintenance
$20
New Tooling
$Injection Molding
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sPro™ 230
ProX™ 500
AM Service Bureau (SB)
Unit Purchase Price
© Senvol LLC
34
Variable Analysis of sPro 230 Per Unit Cost
Status Quo Cost Per Unit: $2.64
sPro 230 Cost Per Unit:
$39.42
Variable
Original Value
Material Price ($/cu inch)
$2.50
Bezel part volume (cu inch)
8.2
AM Machine Cost
$780,000.00
# Parts/Batch
60
Non-usable Scrap Rate
30%
# hours to print full bed
20
# hours to cure full bed print
20
AM Machine Life (years)
7
AM Annual Services Cost
$20,000.00
Qualification cost/batch
90
Machine Downtime
10%
Labor Rate ($/hour)
$17.50
# labor hours/week
2
Redesign cost
$4,000.00
10%
$ 36.76
$ 36.76
$ 38.48
$ 38.26
$ 38.81
$ 38.86
$ 38.86
$ 38.56
$ 39.25
$ 39.27
$ 39.30
$ 39.40
$ 39.40
$ 39.42
20%
$ 34.09
$ 34.09
$ 37.54
$ 37.29
$ 38.19
$ 38.29
$ 38.29
$ 37.85
$ 39.08
$ 39.12
$ 39.18
$ 39.39
$ 39.39
$ 39.42
30%
$ 31.43
$ 31.43
$ 36.59
$ 36.47
$ 37.58
$ 37.73
$ 37.73
$ 37.25
$ 38.91
$ 38.97
$ 39.06
$ 39.37
$ 39.37
$ 39.42
Variable Improvement Level
40%
50%
60%
$ 28.76 $ 26.10 $ 23.43
$ 28.76 $ 26.10 $ 23.43
$ 35.65 $ 34.71 $ 33.77
$ 35.77 $ 35.16 $ 34.63
$ 36.96 $ 36.35 $ 35.73
$ 37.17 $ 36.60 $ 36.04
$ 37.17 $ 36.60 $ 36.04
$ 36.73 $ 36.28 $ 35.89
$ 38.74 $ 38.57 $ 38.41
$ 38.82 $ 38.67 $ 38.52
$ 38.94 $ 38.83 $ 38.72
$ 39.36 $ 39.34 $ 39.33
$ 39.36 $ 39.34 $ 39.33
$ 39.42 $ 39.42 $ 39.42
70%
$ 20.77
$ 20.77
$ 32.82
$ 34.16
$ 35.12
$ 35.48
$ 35.48
$ 35.54
$ 38.24
$ 38.37
$ 38.61
$ 39.31
$ 39.31
$ 39.42
80%
$ 18.10
$ 18.10
$ 31.88
$ 33.74
$ 34.50
$ 34.91
$ 34.91
$ 35.23
$ 38.07
$ 38.22
$ 38.50
$ 39.30
$ 39.30
$ 39.42
90%
$ 15.44
$ 15.44
$ 30.94
$ 33.37
$ 33.89
$ 34.35
$ 34.35
$ 34.96
$ 37.90
$ 38.07
$ 38.40
$ 39.28
$ 39.28
$ 39.42
*All costs assume infinite demand (i.e. the AM machine is never intentionally idle).
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35
Can AM become cost-effective?
Status Quo Cost Per Unit:
$2.64
“Improved” AM Cost Per Unit: $2.63
AM Machine Cost
AM Machine Life (years)
AM Annual Svcs Cost
Material Price ($/cu inch)
Non-usable Scrap Rate
# Parts/Batch
Bezel part volume (cu inch)
Labor Rate ($/hour)
# labor hours/week
# hours to print full bed
# hours to cure full bed print
Qualification cost/batch (tensile bar test)
Redesign cost
Machine Downtime (broken, maintenance)
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Original Value Improvement
$780,000
30%
7
50%
$20,000
90%
$2.50
90%
30%
65%
60
300%
8.2
10%
$17.50
0%
2
50%
20
50%
20
50%
$90.00
90%
$4,000.00
0%
10%
50%
New Value
$546,000
11
$2,000
$0.25
11%
240
7.38
$17.50
1
10
10
$9.00
$4,000.00
5%
36
Can AM become cost-effective?
Status Quo Cost Per Unit:
$2.64
“Improved” AM Cost Per Unit: $2.64
AM Machine Cost
AM Machine Life (years)
AM Annual Svcs Cost
Material Price ($/cu inch)
Non-usable Scrap Rate
# Parts/Batch
Bezel part volume (cu inch)
Labor Rate ($/hour)
# labor hours/week
# hours to print full bed
# hours to cure full bed print
Qualification cost/batch (tensile bar test)
Redesign cost
Machine Downtime (broken, maintenance)
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Original Value Improvement
$780,000
50%
7
50%
$20,000
50%
$2.50
50%
30%
50%
60
50%
8.2
90%
$17.50
0%
2
0%
20
50%
20
50%
$90.00
90%
$4,000.00
10%
10%
10%
New Value
$390,000
11
$10,000
$1.25
15%
90
0.82
$17.50
2
10
10
$9.00
$3,600.00
9%
37
Case Study 2 Summary
Impact:
•AM more expensive than injection molding
in this case
•Track impactful inputs
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38
Overall Summary
• Given current technology levels, some parts are costeffective to produce via AM
• 7 supply chain scenarios
• For parts that are not currently cost-effective for AM, no
one variable can be singled out as the cause to AM’s high
cost
• Senvol’s algorithm can construct scenarios to show
when a part will become cost-effective for AM
• The most impactful AM variables (on total AM cost) are
often material cost, part volume and AM machine cost
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39
Business Considerations for AM
• Identify parts and cost-benefit analysis
• Educate executives and employees
• Analyze supply chain process
• Connect to major industry stakeholders
• Strategize for future iterations of AM technology
• Run AM Pilot Program
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40
Senvol Database
Search 450+ AM machines & 550+ materials
www.senvol.com/database
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41
Contact
info@senvol.com
@Senvol
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42
Appendix I:
Additional Slides from Case Study 1 (GE)
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43
Analysis Structure: Inputs & Outputs
Time
Inputs
Outputs
Days of AM machine
usage
Cumulative AM
Machine Usage
(over 10 years)
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44
AM Machine Usage
# of Days to Print by Batch Size
4.20
Y=-0.0022x2+0.08x+3.29
# days to print
4.00
3.74
3.80
3.79
3.83
3.87
3.90
4.01
3.98 4.00
3.96
3.93
3.69
3.64
3.57
3.60
3.51
3.44
3.40
3.37
3.20
3.00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
# Units/Batch
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45
Analysis Structure: Inputs & Outputs
Time
Inputs
Outputs
Days of AM machine
usage
Cumulative AM
Machine Usage
(over 10 years)
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46
AM machine usage (# weeks)
Simulated AM Machine Usage
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Year
# Weeks AM
Machine In
Use (avg.)
2014
3.7
2015
4.1
2016
4.7
2017
5.2
2018
5.9
2019
6.7
2020
7.6
2021
8.8
2022
9.7
2023
11.3
Year
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47
Comparison of Cost Per Unit
Cost Per Unit
$1,600
$1,400
AM Metal Cost/Unit
AM Polymer Cost/Unit
Cost/unit
$1,200
Traditional Cost/Unit (incl. Assembly)
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$1
16
31
46
61
76
91
106
121
# units per order
136
151
166
181
196
More detail on this area
in the next 2 slides
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48
Comparison of Cost Per Unit (AM Metal)
Cost/unit
Inflexion Points
(low probability
of occurring)
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
# units ordered
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49
Comparison of Cost Per Unit (AM Polymer)
Cost/unit
Inflexion Point
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
# units ordered
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Very high
probability
that AM
Polymer will
continue to
be less
expensive
than
Traditional
Machining
50
Comparison of Cost Per Order
Cost Per Order
$90,000
AM Metal Cost/Order
Cost/order
$80,000
AM Polymer Cost/Order
Traditional Cost/Order (incl. Assembly)
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$1
16
31
46
61
76
91
106
121
# units per order
136
151
166
181
196
Inflexion Point for AM Polymer seen on previous slide
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51
Stochastic Demand Forecasting
Number of orders/year
Number of units/order
A binomial function to simulate customers’
orders is used;
Probability = probability of an order
arriving at a point in time;
0 = no order; 1 = 1 order
Minimum order amount, mean and
standard deviation are used to simulate
order size
X
2014
2015
Order min
1
1
Order mean
20
22
Order StDev
10
11
Order 1
0
48
2014
2015
0.30
0.32
Order 1
0
1
Order 2
0
1
Order 3
1
0
Order 2
0
18
Order 4
0
0
Order 3
12
0
Order 5
1
1
Order 4
0
0
Etc.
…
…
Order 5
32
35
Etc.
…
…
Probability
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equals
# units
ordered per
year
52
Appendix II:
Additional Slides from Case Study 2
(Johnson Controls, Inc.)
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53
What about when new tooling is needed?
$100,000.00
Total Cost (AM Service Bureau)
$90,000.00
Total Cost (Injection Molding)
$80,000.00
Total Cost ($)
$70,000.00
$60,000.00
$50,000.00
289 bezels
$40,000.00
$30,000.00
$20,000.00
$10,000.00
$0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Number of Bezels
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54
Variable Analysis of sPro 230 Per Unit Cost
Material Price ($/cu inch)
40
Bezel part volume (cu inch)
AM Machine Cost
35
# Parts/Batch
Non-usable Scrap Rate
-AM
Machine
Cost
Cost/Bezel
30
25
# hours to cure full bed
print
AM Machine Life (years)
AM Annual Services Cost
-Material Cost
-Bezel Part Volume
(i.e. both variables have
the same steepness)
20
# hours to print full bed
Qualification cost/batch
Machine Downtime
Labor Rate ($/hour)
# labor hours/week
15
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Percent Improvement
70%
80%
90%
Redesign cost
*All costs assume infinite demand (i.e. the AM machine is never intentionally idle).
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Variable Analysis of sPro 230 Per Unit Cost
10% Improvement
Original
Variable
Value
Material Price ($/cu inch)
$2.50
Bezel part volume (cu inch)
8.2
AM Machine Cost
$780,000.00
# Parts/Batch
60
Non-usable Scrap Rate
30%
# hours to print full bed
20
# hours to cure full bed print
20
AM Machine Life (years)
7
AM Annual Services Cost
$20,000.00
Qualification cost/batch
$90.00
Labor Rate
$17.50
# labor hours/week
2
Redesign cost
$4,000.00
Machine Downtime
10%
50% Improvement
90% Improvement
New Cost % Decrease $ decrease New Cost % Decrease $ decrease New Cost % Decrease $ decrease
per Bezel in total cost in total cost per Bezel in total cost in total cost per Bezel in total cost in total cost
$36.76
6.76%
$2.67
$26.10
33.80%
$13.33
$15.44
60.84%
$23.99
$36.76
6.76%
$2.67
$26.10
33.80%
$13.33
$15.44
60.84%
$23.99
$38.48
2.39%
$0.94
$34.71
11.95%
$4.71
$30.94
21.51%
$8.48
$38.26
2.95%
$1.16
$35.16
10.80%
$4.26
$33.37
15.35%
$6.05
$38.81
1.56%
$0.62
$36.35
7.80%
$3.08
$33.89
14.04%
$5.54
$38.86
1.43%
$0.56
$36.60
7.15%
$2.82
$34.35
12.87%
$5.07
$38.86
1.43%
$0.56
$36.60
7.15%
$2.82
$34.35
12.87%
$5.07
$38.56
2.17%
$0.86
$36.28
7.97%
$3.14
$34.96
11.32%
$4.46
$39.25
0.43%
$0.17
$38.57
2.15%
$0.85
$37.90
3.86%
$1.52
$39.27
0.38%
$0.15
$38.67
1.90%
$0.75
$38.07
3.42%
$1.35
$39.40
0.04%
$0.02
$39.34
0.20%
$0.08
$39.28
0.35%
$0.14
$39.40
0.04%
$0.02
$39.34
0.20%
$0.08
$39.28
0.35%
$0.14
$39.42
0.00%
$0.00
$39.42
0.00%
$0.00
$39.42
0.01%
$0.00
$39.30
0.31%
$0.12
$38.83
1.50%
$0.59
$38.40
2.60%
$1.02
*All costs assume infinite demand (i.e. the AM machine is never intentionally idle).
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56