Future Operating Environment
The uncertainty, volatility and complexity of wicked problems
Scope
 Terrains
 Threats
 How we will need to operate
Terrain = Physical + Human + Information
Physical Terrain
Subterranean
Complex
Physical
Terrain
Urban
Littoral
(including
Riverine)
Dense
Vegetation
Desert
Physical
Definition of Complex Physical Terrain
 Terrain in which:
 it is physically and mentally challenging to operate
 forces cannot readily achieve situational awareness out to
the maximum effective range of their weapons
 identifying and tracking adversaries is difficult
 servicemen are easily separated from each other and from
supporting capabilities
 communications are difficult
 movement is canalised and/ or highly constrained
Human Terrain
Increased and concentrated demand for resources
Complex and changeable
relationships
Regional and global
linkages
Human
Adversaries that are
from, or similar to, the
local society
Different linguistic, cultural
and temporal perceptions
Definition of Complex Human Terrain
 Terrain in which:
 we lack understanding of the way of life of the people
 multiple actors have different agendas, few of which are
met in the current social construct
 intervening forces and agencies are viewed with suspicion
by the majority of locals
 social group cohesion at a low level is tight, creating a
degree of secrecy
 people are radicalised and opinions mobilised in novel
ways
Information Terrain
Information
Tempo and Scale
Low-cost attack
Our reliance on it
Definition of Complex Information Terrain
 Terrain in which:
 ownership of information services is unclear
 the use of bandwidth is hotly contested
 the threat from cyber attack is real
 multiple channels of communication exist between
influential actors and wider society
 instantaneous messaging is a fact of life
 the proliferation of social media has a substantial impact
on the capacity of actors to shield their intent and actions
Terrain = Physical + Human + Information
Urban Terrain Zones
Tunnels
Complex
Physical
Terrain
Urban
Littoral
(including
Riverine)
Dense
Vegetation
Desert
Increased and concentrated demand
for resources
Complex and changeable
relationships
Regional and global
Physical
Human
linkages
Adversaries that are
from, or similar to, the
The Operating
local society
Different
linguistic, cultural
Environment
and temporal perceptions
Information
Tempo and Scale
Low-cost attack
Our reliance on it
Threat
 Nature: Agile, adaptive, fluid and different
 Capabilities: easy to use, low maintenance and
effective against our vulnerabilities:
 Modus Operandi: They will use their ‘home
advantage’, Fabian tactics, and the Manoeuvrist
Approach
Therefore, how should we operate?
 In populated, complex terrain (Physical + Human +
Information)
 Amongst multiple actors, adversaries and rivals
 With JIIM Partners
 Within constraints
 Without the technological edge in all areas
 In order to set conditions (the centrality of influence)
The Challenges
 Overcoming lack of mass
 Issues over which we have no or limited control
 Outcome of URBAN WARRIOR experimentation