FGCU Solar
Myths and Realities for Solar Energy 2013
Joseph H. Simmons
Backe Chair for Renewable Energy
Florida Gulf Coast University
Fort Myers, FL
jsimmons@fgcu.edu
FGCU Solar
Generally Widespread Myths
Myths
Facts
Cold and cloudy places
Panels produce electricity under cloudy skies and work better cold
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kb
ld
Maintenance
Harsh climates
Only require occasional cleaning
Withstands rain, 1” hail, snow, wind
Production pollution
energy consumption
No more pollution than others
Energy payback less than 1 year
Land area
g
p
One megawatt per 5‐6 acres.
In US, the roof area supplies total house energy
Too expensive
Costs decreased radically in past 2 yrs
Installed cost less than $2.70/watt
Installed cost less than $2.70/watt
US solar industry is failing
Costs go to China
US panel manufacturing healthy, consolidation
More than 50% of cost is installation FGCU Solar
Where is the Solar Industry Today?
•
Solar Cell efficiencies ‐‐ 24% single crystal Si – commercial
18‐20% poly Si – commercial
•
Price
$ 0.75 – 0.85/watt today
$ 0.65 – 2 year goal
•
Installed costs
$ 2.70 residential
$ 1.60 utility (FPL, TEP)
•
Grid parity?
Depends on amortization period
and on location:
Florida ‐ $ 0.09 /kWh no rebates (20)
Florida ‐
$ 0 09 /kWh no rebates (20)
$ 0.12/kWh no rebates (15)
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Where is solar energy today?
● PV Technology
PV T h l
development essentially complete
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l
t
ti ll
l t
research on new materials tweaks efficiency
● Reliability and dispatchability
research on energy storage (see Bokrand poster)
research on solar forecasting
development of a dynamic smart grid
● Economics
favorable even without subsidies
Leasing programs are successful, but Leasing programs
are successful but
not allowed in Florida
● What
What prevents prevents
widespread adoption?
Policies: local and state, public service P
li i l l d t t
bli
i
commissions, unfavorable net‐metering policies, lack of carbon tax, perceived competition with natural gas
titi
ith t l
Florida Solar Energy Myths
FGCU Solar
● Myth # 1 –
M h # 1 Solar energy is too expensive
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Actual panel costs are below $ 0.85/watt.
Installation labor is $1.50/watt
Total cost is conservatively $ 2.70 per watt installed
Total cost for utilities goes as low as $ 1.60 per watt
No subsidies counted
No subsidies counted.
 Panel life = 20‐25 years
 Solar irradiance in Florida = 1500 kWh AC per kW DC rating
p
g
Amortization time
Subsidies
Cost of electricity
20 years
none
$ 0.09 per kWh
15 years
none
$ 0.12 per kWh
15 years
30% Fed tax credit
$ 0.08 per kWh
5‐10 years past y
p
amortization
Free solar electricity!!!
y
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Florida Solar Energy Myths
● Myth # 2 –
M h # 2 The cost of electricity in Florida is so low that:
Th
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i i i Fl id i
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 it is the major attractor of business and industry
 despite the $9.5 billion that FL consumers send ANNUALLY despite the $9 5 billion that FL consumers send ANNUALLY
outside the State to purchase fuel for electricity.
● Retail electricity cost in Florida: $ 0.113 per kWh (2013)
Florida is 18th in US in electrical costs (eia.gov)
Retail electricity cost in Arizona: $ 0.095 per kWh (2013)
● Reality: Cost of electricity is low in Florida, but solar is lower.
Reality: Cost of electricity is low in Florida but solar is lower
 The cost of solar includes more than 50% in installation
 Question: How much economic growth would result in Florida Question: How much economic growth would result in Florida
if a portion of $9.5 billion annually spent for fuel outside the State were redirected toward Solar installations and spent on employment in the State?
employment in the State?
Florida Solar Energy Myths
FGCU Solar
● Myth # 3 –
M h # 3 The Sunshine State does not have enough sunshine Th S hi S
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h
h
hi
●
●
●
to make solar energy a winning investment (Solar should be left to the US southwest and California).
Arizona produces 2,000 kWh of electricity per year per kW solar
Florida produces 1,500 kWh of electricity per year per kW
Cost of electricity is about the reverse ratio so the value of investments is about the same in both states.
States
Florida population
p p
Florida Solar Jobs
● Projected Solar job growth: 17% in 2013 Arizona
3X
25%
and 220,000 new solar jobs by 2030.
California ½ X
5.7%
y
y
Solar installations in the US double every 2.5 years! New Jersey
2X
50%
US
6%
2%
Florida Solar Energy Myths
FGCU Solar
● Myth # 3 –
M h # 3 The Sunshine State does not have enough sunshine Th S hi S
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h
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hi
●
to make solar energy a winning investment (Solar should be left to the US southwest and California).
What about solar jobs? 119,000 solar jobs in the US
States
Florida population Florida Solar Jobs
Florida population
Florida Solar Jobs
Arizona
3X
25%
1:12
California
½ X
5.7%
1:10
New Jersey
2X
50%
1:4
US
6%
2%
1:3
● Projected Solar job growth: 17% in 2013 and 220,000 new solar jobs by 2030.
Solar installations in the US double every 2.5 years! FGCU Solar
Everlasting Myth ‐ Federal Subsidies
Federal Subsidies 1950‐2010:
Oil ‐ $375 billion
NG ‐ $130 billion
NG $130 billion
Coal ‐ $110 billion
Hydro ‐ $80 billion
Nuclear ‐ $90 billion
R
Renewables ‐
bl
$65 billi
$65 billion
Geothermal ‐ $10 billion
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Federal Subsidies 2010
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Annual Federal Subsidies
All energy generation technologies have required substantial federal investment All
energ generation technologies ha e req ired s bstantial federal in estment
to become commercial The turbine was developed during WW2 for jet engines Nuclear reactors were developed during WW2 for bombs FGCU Solar
QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS?
QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS?
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Solar energy costs
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Solar Module Costs
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Module Costs and Deployment
Solar Energy – Costs
● The cost of a PV system today: (very approximate figures)
y
y ( y pp
g
)
$0.85/watt for the modules
$0.25/watt for the inverter
$0.10/watt for other electrical components
$1.50/watt for installation

TOTAL = $2.70/watt installed.
$
/
i
ll d
In Florida, a good installer will produce 1,500kWh/kW/year
This translates to $1.80/kWh in one year
This translates to $1.80/kWh in one year
If amortized over 20 years, then the cost per year is $0.09/kWh, well below the retail price of electricity.
FGCU Solar
Coal
Adv
Coal
NG
CC
NG
CT
Nuke
**
Wind
Solar
PV
CSP
Geo
Bio
0.09
0.11
0.07
0.10
0.11
0.10
0.09*
0.31
0.10
0.11
Energy Information Agency 2011, except for Solar PV
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Solar is Going to Overtake Everything
FERC Chair, Jon Wellinghoff: FERC
Chair Jon Wellinghoff: “Solar
Solar is Going to Overtake Everything!
is Going to Overtake Everything!”
August 21, 2013 – Jon Wellinghoff, one the country’s top energy regulators as Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, was quoted as saying at the National Clean Energy Summit in Las Vegas: “If a single drop of water on the pitcher’s mound at Dodger’s Stadium is doubled every minute, a person chained to the highest seat would be in danger of drowning in an hour. That’s what is happening in solar. It could double every two years… Solar will overtake wind in about 10 years. It is going to be the dominant player. Everybody’s roof is out there.” [Herman K. Trabrish, Greentech Media].
The graph below shows precisely this doubling in cumulative installations in the US in periods of 2.5 years starting in 2010
starting in 2010.
C m lati e Installations Do ble in 2 5 Years
Cumulative Installations Double in 2.5 Years
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Growth of solar installations
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Solar Jobs
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Projected employment growth for 2013 = 17%
Projected employment growth for 2013 = 17%
FL population = 19.3M 2,500 solar jobs 1 solar job/3720 total jobs
CA population = 38M 43,700 solar jobs 1 solar job/419 total jobs
AZ population = 6.5M 9,800 solar jobs AZ population 6 5M 9 800 solar jobs
1 solar job/306 total jobs
1 solar job/306 total jobs
US population = 314 M 119,00 solar jobs FGCU Solar
Solar Jobs
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Solar Jobs
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Solar Jobs
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Federal Subsidies
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Federal subsidies
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Federal Subsidies
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Federal Subsidies
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Hidden Costs of Energy
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Hidden Costs of Energy
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Hidden Costs of Natural Gas
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Hidden Costs of Energy (GHG)
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Costs of New Nuclear Power
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Costs of New Nuclear Power
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Capital Costs of New Nuclear Power
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Consolidation