REDUCING ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND
PEAK POWER IN BELGIUM
©3E |
With the support of:
info@3E.Eu
|
www.3E.eu
PRESENTATION CONTENT
Outline
• Objective
• Background
• Energy efficiency: examples in 3 sectors
•
Residential: electric heating
•
Tertiary: lighting
•
Industry: electric pumps
• Summary
• Policy recommendations
• Conclusion
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2
OBJECTIVE
• Nuclear phase-out is planned to start in 2015
• Study wants to highlight the potential of energy efficiency to help
achieving this decision while maintaining security of supply.
High-level analysis for three concrete examples provide proof
and concrete basis for action
•
•
Quantitative analysis of energy reduction potential (over the year)
Quantitative analysis of power reduction potential (during peak
moments)
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3
BACKGROUND
• Basic rule: generation must equal demand at all times
• Different types of generation:
•
•
•
•
Base load plants (e.g. nuclear, cheap coal…)
Flexible semi-baseload plants (e.g. gas)
Peak plants (e.g. diesel generators)
Must-run plants (e.g. wind)
Electricity production in Belgium
per energy source [2009]
29%
54%
Coal
Petrol
Gas
Biomass
Waste
Nuclear
Water
Solar
Wind
Other Sources
Must run RE
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Peak
System load
Load and Generation
9%
Indication of power generation with
different sources in Belgium
1 week (winter)
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4
BACKGROUND
Main problems
in current
and future
power system:
Provide backup
power when
there is not
enough RE
Reduce baseload when there
is much RE
Deal with fast
variations with
inflexible
demand and
generation
Consequences
of nuclear
phase-out:
Demand
flexibility
and new
(peak)
plants
needed
Base load
is more
flexible
when there
is less
nuclear
Demand
flexibility
and new
flexible
plants
needed
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5
BACKGROUND
Average, Maximum and Minimum load per hour for each month (2011)
Load on Elia system [MW]
14 000
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
0 5 101520 1 6 111621 2 7 121722 3 8 131823 4 9 1419 0 5 101520 1 6 111621 2 7 121722 3 8 131823 4 9 1419 0 5 101520 1 6 111621
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Daily average, minimum and maximum profile per month
• Summer peak: during morning
• Winter peak: during evening and much more important
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6
BACKGROUND
Breakdown of load profile 11/01/2011
(SLP RES, SLP non-RES and rest)
Day with Maximum load (January
11, 2011)
14 000
Total Residential SLP
Total Non-Residential SLP
Rest
10 000
12 000
9 000
10 000
8 000
7 000
6 000
MW
MW
8 000
6 000
4 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
2 000
1 000
0
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 121314 15161718 192021 222324
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
1 day (24h)
1 day (24h)
• Peak load in 2011 was on January 11 (13.2 GW on Elia grid)
• Evening peak (~18h) mainly comes from residential customers,
but can be reduced in any sector
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7
ENERGY EFFICIENCY: EXAMPLES IN 3 SECTORS
Electric consumption share (Energy balances 2009)
2%
1%
Industry
24%
Tertiary
47%
Residential
Transport
27%
Agriculture
Annual electricity consumption per region
Annual electricity consumption per sector
Brussels
Wallonia
Flanders
45
60
40
35
Agriculture
40
Transport
30
TWh
TWh
50
30
25
Residential
20
20
Tertiary
15
10
Industry
10
5
0
Flanders
Wallonia
Brussels
0
Industry
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Tertiary
Residential
Transport
Agriculture
8
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR:
ELECTRIC HEATING
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: ELECTRIC HEATING
Looking at:
•
•
Accumulation heating
Direct complementary heating
Enquete performed by IPSOS:
•
•
•
1018 households
Spread over Flanders (58%), Brussels (10%), Wallonia (32%)
Well distributed over age, gender, income level…
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: ELECTRIC HEATING
Do you possess electric heating appliances (not for water, only
for room heating)?
53%
Yes
47%
No
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
What type of electric heating appliances do you have and how many of each?
0
1
2
3
4
Direct heating appliance (heats as soon as you connect it) 2%
More than 4
63%
25%
Accumulation heating appliance (stores heat during night
at night tariff)
94%
0%
20%
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40%
6%
3%
1%
2%
60%
80%
100%
11
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: ELECTRIC HEATING
Specifically for the direct heating appliances as complementary heating: How many hours
per day do you use them during winter days when it's freezing (e.g. if during the morning
you use 2 devices during 2 hours, then the answer is 4)
Morning (8.00-13.00h)
49%
40%
10%
No use
Afternoon (13.00-18.00h)
82%
Start of the evening (18.00-20.00h)
8%
46%
32%
6%
Less than 1h
1 - 2h
17%
2 - 4h
Evening (20.00-22.00h)
49%
30%
Night (22.00-8.00h)
13%
80%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
10%
50%
60%
70%
80%
4 - 6h
More than 6h
6%
90%
100%
Would you be willing to stop using your device (or use it less) between 18h and 20h?
Yes
57%
24%
18%
No
I don't know
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
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70%
80%
90%
100%
12
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: ELECTRIC HEATING
Results of enquete
•
53% of all belgians has one or more electric heating devices at home.
•
Only 6% of the these possesses accumulation heating. 98% says to possess one
or more direct electric heating devices.
•
Direct heating devices are mostly used in the beginning of the evening (between
18h and 20h), in the morning and between 20h and 22h.
•
57% of the respondents is willing to reduce consumption or unplug the direct
electric complementary heating during the period 18-20h. One out of 4
respondents is not willing to do this, while 18% does not know.
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: ELECTRIC HEATING
Results direct heating:
•
•
•
•
Number of Belgian households (2008):
Households with direct electric heating:
Average number of devices:
Average electric power:
4 575 950
52 % (=53%*98%)
1.5
1.5 kW
Number of devices in Belgium:
Total installed power electric compl. heating:
3 573 433
5.36 GW
Results accumulation heating:
•
•
•
•
Number of Belgian households (2008):
Households with accumulation heating:
Average consumption (VREG):
Average installed power (100 m², 100 W/m²):
4 575 950
3 % (=53%*6%)
12 500 kWh
10 kW
Number of accumulation heating systems:
Total installed power accumulation heating:
137 279
1.37 GW
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: ELECTRIC HEATING
Direct complementary heating
Consumption profile of direct electric heating during winter peak day
Result Enquete
Smoothened*
2 000
1 000
500
Hour of the day
Assumption**:
<0°C
<5°C
<10°C
<15°C
number of days
(during day)
30
132
212
319
23-24
22-23
21-22
20-21
19-20
18-19
17-18
16-17
15-16
14-15
13-14
12-13
11-12
10-11
9-10
8-9
7-8
6-7
5-6
4-5
3-4
2-3
1-2
0
0-1
MW
1 500
* Results of enquete are discrete (per block of hours).
Therefore, the curve has been smoothened to
represent a more realistic profile.
Use of devices
75%
30%
15%
0%
** This assumption is needed to
transform the results of the enquete
(in power consumption) to a total
energy consumption over the year.
• Total energy consumption direct electric heating: 0.82 TWh
1.0% of Belgian electricity consumption
4.2% of residential electricity consumption
159 M€ electricity cost annually
(calculated with 15/20 c€/kWh for day/night)
• Totalenergy
consumption
during
winter
peak:
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consumption and
peak power
in Belgium
610 MW
15
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: ELECTRIC HEATING
Accumulation heating
From SLP profiles winter peak day (difference between S21 and S22):
Estimation of accumulation heating usage on winter day
2 500
MW
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
23-24
22-23
21-22
20-21
19-20
18-19
17-18
16-17
15-16
14-15
13-14
12-13
11-12
10-11
9-10
8-9
7-8
6-7
5-6
4-5
3-4
2-3
1-2
0-1
0
• Total energy consumption accumulation heating: 1.72 TWh
2.1% of Belgian electricity consumption
8.7% of residential electricity consumption
257 M€ electricity costs annually
(calculated with 15 c€/kWh for night)
• Total consumption during winter peak: 0 MW (
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works at night)
16
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: ELECTRIC HEATING
Assumed conversions possible: 25%
Total savings on peak day:
Total electricity savings (accumulation + direct electrical heating)
23-24
22-23
21-22
20-21
19-20
18-19
17-18
16-17
15-16
14-15
13-14
Accumulation heating (25%)
12-13
11-12
10-11
9-10
8-9
7-8
6-7
5-6
4-5
3-4
2-3
1-2
0-1
Direct heating (25%)
0
MW
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
• Total energy savings: 0.64 TWh
(3.2% of residential consumption)
• Peak reduction: 152 MW
(1.15% of winter load peak)
• Annual electricity costs savings: 106 M€
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: ELECTRIC HEATING
Serious point of attention, and not only in Belgium!
• Situation in France is even worse due to electric heating:
•
•
•
In winter, demand is 65% higher than in summer, while for Belgium this is
‘only’ 30%
Electric heating in France consumes 34% of the winter peak
Demand sensitivity per degree °C:
−
−
France: 2300 MW
Belgium: 80 MW
(=~2.3 % of peak power per °C)
(=~0.6 % of peak power per °C)
Source: Greenpeace
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Source: NegaWatt
18
TERTIARY SECTOR:
LIGHTING
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TERTIARY SECTOR: LIGHTING
Annual electricity consumption in the tertiary sector (Energy balances
2009 of each Region)
TWh
14
Culture & sports
12
Other services
10
Health care
8
Education
6
Administration
4
Banks/assuranc./services
Hotels & restaurants
2
Trade
0
Brussels
Flanders
Wallonie
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TERTIARY SECTOR: LIGHTING
Breakdown of electricity consumption in tertiary sector (Energy balance Brussels*)
Lighting
Airco, ventilation, cold
Administration
Heating hot water
Other
35%
Other services
25%
Culture & sports
25%
Health care
47%
Education
69%
Banks/assuranc./services
35%
Trade
37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
* The Brussels Energy balance (2009) is the only one with details on the split of electricity consumption. It is
assumed that the shares in the other regions are similar.
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TERTIARY SECTOR: LIGHTING
Consumption profiles lighting (expert estimation 3E)
100%
Trade
90%
80%
Hotels & restaurants
% of capacity
70%
Banks/assuranc./services
60%
50%
Administration
40%
Education
30%
Health care
20%
10%
Other services
0-1
1-2
2-3
3-4
4-5
5-6
6-7
7-8
8-9
9-10
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
0%
Culture & sports
Hour of the day
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TERTIARY SECTOR: LIGHTING
Working hours lighting [1]:
Office
Education
Health care
Horeca
Trade
Industry
Sports
2600
2000
4000
2600
2900
2400
3000
Possible saving:
•
•
Average possible saving:
Remaining potential:
40%
75%
[2, 3, 4]
[2]
[1] Cijfers en tabellen 2007, SenterNovem, April 2007
[2] The European Lighting Industry Position on How to Maximise the Potential
Benefits of European Policy on Energy Efficiency in Lighting, CELMA, 2008
[3] Groen Licht Vlaanderen 2020
[4] 3E Expert estimation
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TERTIARY SECTOR: LIGHTING
Estimation of total savings on tertiary lighting
(TWh per year & MW installed)
0.90
300
0.80
250
0.70
200
0.50
150
MW
TWh
0.60
0.40
0.30
100
0.20
50
0.10
0.00
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0
24
TERTIARY SECTOR: LIGHTING
23-24
22-23
21-22
20-21
19-20
18-19
17-18
16-17
15-16
14-15
13-14
12-13
11-12
10-11
9-10
8-9
7-8
6-7
5-6
4-5
3-4
2-3
1-2
0-1
Savings on tertiary lighting on peak winter day (GW)
0.000
-0.100
Culture & sports
-0.200
Other services
-0.300
Health care
GW
Education
-0.400
Administration
-0.500
Banks/assuranc./services
-0.600
Hotels & restaurants
Trade
-0.700
-0.800
-0.900
• Total energy savings: 2.41 TWh
(11.0% of tertiary consumption)
• Peak reduction: 812 MW
(6.2% of winter load peak)
• Annual electricity cost savings: 362 M€
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INDUSTRY SECTOR:
PUMPS AND VENTILATORS
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INDUSTRY: EFFICIENT MOTOR SYSTEMS
Annual electricity consumption in the industry (Energy balances
2009)
30
Other industries
Textile, leather & clothing
25
Metal processing industry
TWh
20
Mineral non-metal products
15
Paper and publishing
Food, drinks and tobacco
10
Chemics
5
Non-ferro
Iron & steel
0
Flanders
Brussels
Wallonia
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INDUSTRY: EFFICIENT MOTOR SYSTEMS
14
Annual electricity consumption in the industry (Energy balances
2009)
12
10
TWh
8
Wallonia
Brussels
6
Flanders
4
2
0
Iron & steel Non-ferro
Chemics
Food, drinks Paper and Mineral nonMetal
and tobacco publishing
metal
processing
products
industry
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Textile,
leather &
clothing
Other
industries
28
INDUSTRY: EFFICIENT MOTOR SYSTEMS
Estimation of savings potential for pumps & ventilators
•
•
•
•
•
68 % of industrial consumption is used by motor systems
38 % of this is used by pumps and ventilators
75 % of these applications have a variable load
50 % is estimated to be undeveloped potential
29 % improvement in efficiency is possible by using:
•
•
•
[1]
[1]
[2]
[4]
[3]
frequency control
more efficient motors
better dimensioning of the systems
2.8 % of the industrial electricity consumption can be avoided
[1] Reference Document on Best Available Techniques for Energy Efficiency (BREF), European
Commission, February 2009
[2] Improving Pumping System Performance, A Sourcebook for Industry, Second Edition, U.S. Department
of Energy’s Industrial Technologies Program and Hydraulic Institute, May 2006
[3] Energy Efficient Motor Driven Systems, European Copper Institute, April 2004
[4] Very little information available
Expert estimate based on ‘Energy Efficiency makes a difference,
ABB, November 2008’ (15% realised potential) and on estimated progress since.
As a reality check, the results are compared to ‘Energy efficiency in Belgium, McKinsey, 2009’, which
calculates a potential of 3.06 TWh in Belgium industry, only via variable speed motors systems.
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INDUSTRY: EFFICIENT MOTOR SYSTEMS
Consumption profiles pumps & ventilators (expert estimation 3E)
Iron & steel
100%
Non-ferro
50%
Chemics
0%
23-24
22-23
21-22
20-21
19-20
18-19
17-18
16-17
15-16
14-15
13-14
12-13
11-12
10-11
9-10
8-9
7-8
6-7
5-6
4-5
3-4
2-3
1-2
0-1
Paper and publishing
Mineral non-metal products
100%
Metal processing industry
50%
Other industries
23-24
22-23
21-22
20-21
19-20
18-19
17-18
16-17
15-16
14-15
13-14
12-13
11-12
10-11
9-10
8-9
7-8
6-7
5-6
4-5
3-4
2-3
1-2
0-1
0%
100%
50%
Food, drinks and tobacco
23-24
22-23
21-22
20-21
19-20
18-19
17-18
16-17
15-16
14-15
13-14
12-13
11-12
10-11
9-10
8-9
7-8
6-7
5-6
4-5
3-4
2-3
1-2
0-1
0%
Textile, leather & clothing
Hour of the day
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INDUSTRY: EFFICIENT MOTOR SYSTEMS
Estimation annual savings on pumps and ventilators
(TWh per year & MW installed)
0.40
50
0.35
45
TWh
35
0.25
30
0.20
25
0.15
20
MW
40
0.30
15
0.10
10
0.05
5
0.00
0
Iron &
steel
Non-ferro Chemics
Food, Paper and Mineral
Metal
Textile,
Other
drinks and publishing non-metal processing leather & industries
tobacco
products industry clothing
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INDUSTRY: EFFICIENT MOTOR SYSTEMS
Savings on pumps & ventilators on peak winter day (GW)
0.00
-0.02
Other industries
-0.04
Textile, leather & clothing
-0.06
Metal processing industry
Mineral non-metal products
GW
-0.08
Paper and publishing
-0.10
Food, drinks and tobacco
-0.12
Chemics
-0.14
Non-ferro
Iron & steel
-0.16
-0.18
-0.20
• Total energy savings: 1.08 TWh
(2.8% of industrial consumption)
• Peak reduction: 151 MW
(1.1% of winter peak)
• Annual electricity cost savings: 108 M€
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SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS
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SUMMARY: ENERGY SAVINGS
• Residential electric heating:
• Tertiary lighting:
• Industrial motors:
Total savings:
0.63 TWh
2.41 TWh
1.08 TWh
4.13 TWh
4.13 TWh
~5.0 % of Belgian electricity consumption
~576 M€ electricity cost savings each year
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SUMMARY: REDUCTION OF THE WINTER PEAK
Possible reduction of winter peak
Green line - savings on electrical heating
Red line - savings on tertiary lighting
Blue line - savings on pumps&ventilators
Load Elia (11 January 2011, max of each hour in MW)
14 000
12 000
10 000
14 000
Zoom on peak hours
13 000
6 000
MW
MW
8 000
4 000
12 000
11 000
2 000
10 000
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
0
0-1
1-2
2-3
3-4
4-5
5-6
6-7
7-8
8-9 9-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24
Hour of the day
• The three measures can significantly reduce the winter peak load.
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35
SUMMARY: REDUCTION OF THE WINTER PEAK
Reduction of winter peak load
14 000
13 208
12 093
12 000
MW
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
Peak load
Reduction by pumps & Reduction by lighting
ventilators
Reduction by electric
heating
Final
Reduction of winter peak with 1116 MW (8.5%) possible (with 3 measures).
Energy efficiency offers important opportunities for controlling the peak
consumption!
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36
SUMMARY: POWER SAVINGS ON WINTER DAY
Reduction of consumption on peak winter day by the three measures
Savings on pumps & ventilators
Savings on tertiary lighting
Savings on electric heating
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
-200
MW
-400
-600
-800
-1 000
-1 200
-1 400
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37
SUMMARY OF SAVINGS
Share of each measure
Energy savings (4.1 TWh = 5.0% of total BE consumption)
13%
Savings on residential electric heating
35%
Savings on tertiary lighting
52%
Savings on industrial pumps and ventilators
Peak reduction (1116 MW = 8.5% of peak)
19%
12%
Savings on residential electric heating
Savings on tertiary lighting
69%
Savings on industrial pumps and ventilators
Electricity cost savings (total 576 M€/year)
17%
26%
Savings on residential electric heating
Savings on tertiary lighting
58%
Savings on industrial pumps and ventilators
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SUMMARY OF SAVINGS
Costs and profits
Assumptions average payback:
•
•
•
Replacing electric heating:
5y
Reducing tertiary lighting consumption: 4y
Optimisation of pumps & ventilators:
2.5y
Cash flow calculation:
2.07 bn EUR investment costs
3.24 bn EUR total profits
Financial assumptions:
•
•
•
•
Each invested EUR brings
1.56 EUR benefits !
4% discount factor for residential sector
10% discount factor for tertiary and industry
2% annual rise of electricity price
15 years depreciation period
Cumulative Cash
flow [€]
Cumulative Cash flow estimation
4 000 000 000
3 000 000 000
2 000 000 000
1 000 000 000
0
-1 000 000 000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
-2 000 000 000
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POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS (1)
Energy efficiency urgently needs more policy
attention!
•
Important economic savings possible with low payback times
•
Supports the Belgian power system and reduces peak load
•
Reduces dependency on fuel imports and increases competitiveness of our industry
•
Helps reaching the 2020 targets of EE, RE and CO2
Concrete actions:
•
Develop large-scale program to replace electric heating with
attention for the social aspect
•
Stimulate audits and relighting in the tertiary sector
•
Further an ambitious energy savings policy for the industry
(focusing on innovation while keeping the long term transition
towards a carbon-free economy in mind)
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40
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS (2)
•
The three measures studied are only examples. Energy efficiency has a lot
more potential, e.g.:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Find solutions for financing
•
•
•
Energy performant appliances (+ phase-out of old appliances)
Efficient lighting in residential and industry sectors
Reduce standby consumption
Efficient motors in tertiary and residential applications (e.g. circulation pumps heating)
Etc.
Large potential is not developed, amongst others because of financing problems (e.g.
economic crisis, owner vs tenant, low payback times demanded in industry etc.)
Well developed ESCO systems, financing schemes, etc. can help
Support and incentivise flexibility:
•
•
•
•
Flexibility is key in a future power system with high penetration of renewables
Electricity contracts can be based more on hourly pricing – gives incentive to the industry
Provide information for voluntary reductions or shifts (e.g. during peak hours, boil water on
cooking fire instead of with water boiler, use gas oven instead of microwave, etc.)
Incentivise economically viable storage options (e.g. heat storage with CHP or heat pump…)
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EXAMPLE: VOLUNTARY REDUCTION AT PEAK MOMENTS?
Not an illusion: example of Earth Hour
• Earth Hour: world-wide action by WWF to
switch off lighting at 8:30 PM (every March)
• Impact in Belgium (press releases Elia):
• 2010:
•
•
•
2011:
•
•
•
©3E |
From 18h30 onwards, the consumption was ~200 MW less than the forecast for a
normal Saturday, at some moments the difference was up to 300 MW
participants have ancipated.
At 20h30, the official start, the consumption was 175 MW lower than the forecast.
The whole day the consumption was 350 to 400 MW lower than forecasted for a
normal Saturday, because of the sunny weather.
From 19h onwards, the effect was enforced by an extra 200-250 MW
participants
have anticipated.
At 20h30, the official start, the consumption was ~550 MW lower than the forecast
(& impact of PV is much less at this hour)
Voluntary energy reductions can help to reduce the peak consumption
and should not be underestimated
IPSOS enquete proved that 57% of people with electric heating is
willing
shift or reduce
consumption
Reducing
energy to
consumption
and peak the
power
in Belgium
42
CONCLUSIONS
Savings of three measures have been investigated:
•
•
•
Residential sector:
Tertiary sector:
Industry sector:
Replacing electric heating (direct & accumulation)
More efficient lighting
More efficient motors systems in pumps & ventilators
Total estimated savings:
•
•
•
Energy:
Peak reduction:
Annual costs:
~4.13 TWh
~1116 MW
~576 M€
(5.0% of BE consumption)
(8.5% of winter load peak)
Investment of 2.06 bn EUR with payback of ~4 years
Total profit over 15 years = 3.24 bn EUR
Taking energy efficiency measures can significantly support the
Belgian energy system in a cost-effective way!
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