Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems for Design and Operation of Water Resources Systems (Proceedings of Rabat Symposium S3, April 1997). IAHS Publ. no. 242, 1997 23 Potential applications of satellite remote sensing (SRS) and GIS in maximizing the use of water resources in the Middle East: examining Iraq as a case study SERWAN M. J. BABAN GRRU Group, Geography, School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Coventry University, Priory Street, Coventry CV1 5FB, UK Abstract The countries of the Middle East region are currently experiencing an increase in water demand. Consequently, water resource managers and decision makers will be required to take measures to cope with extreme conditions and the variability in both, supply and demand. These decision makers will need to use every aid available in order to identify management options for optimizing the use of these limited water resources. The applicability of satellite remote sensing (SRS) within a geographic information system (GIS) as a water management tool, focusing on Iraq as a case study, has been examined. The relevance and the possible success of a range of applications is presented. Based on the outcome of these assessments a hydrological GIS appraisal and management system is proposed. This management system will use SRS as an information source and a GIS as an analytical tool. This will enable decision makers to extrapolate, predict, update, plan, evaluate, compare, simulate and visualize various management actions. It will help to anticipate the consequences of implementing each action over different periods of time in an objective manner, ultimately enabling them to optimize management decisions. INTRODUCTION In the Middle East water resources are limited, and are currently decreasing, whilst the demand for water consumption is increasing for reasons such as the expanding industrialization and population growth. This combination makes the distribution of this limited resource very difficult and potentially explosive. A recent investigation by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Washington, DC), concluded that the situation is likely to become so acute that, in the near future, water will be the dominant resource of the Middle East (Star & Stoll, 1988). This prediction is most likely to be realized for three major reasons: First, for geopolitical reasons, since water resources are not restricted by international boundaries. An examination of the recent history of the region indicates that the race to develop water resources has already started. Many upstream countries in the Middle East have drawn up plans to divert shared river and aquifer water supplies to fill reservoirs and irrigation systems in order to increase their agricultural production. Syria is planning to divert water from the Yarmuk River, Turkey from the upper Euphrates and Tigris, Libya from its shared aquifer and Ethiopia from the Blue Nile (Clark, 1991). Secondly, natural problems hinder the fall use of the available water resources in the region. 24 Serwan M. J. Baban Most of the lakes and reservoirs in the Maghreb States of North Africa suffer from sedimentation problems. Consequently the increase in water demand over time will be associated with a diminished storage capacity. The third problem is the weaknesses of the decision-makers. Some managers may have a poor general knowledge of the problem due to their appointment for political reasons (Perera & Tateishi, 1995). In order to actively promote political and social stability, minimize the damage and strike a balance between environmental and economic concerns, water managers and decision makers should use every aid available as they attempt to mange their limited water resources. THE USE OF SRS AND GIS-TECHNIQUES Remote sensing and GIS might be able to contribute effectively towards the objectives identified above. SRS has many advantages, including accessibility, synoptic viewing, uniformity of collected information, repetitive coverage and cost effectiveness. These advantages will provide an opportunity to adopt an holistic approach, enabling water resources to be studied as an integrated system rather than individual entities. The holistic approach, using a GIS, will allow managers to observe, study and monitor the effects and consequences of a particular decision on water resources within a large geographical area concurrently and over appropriate periods of time. It will also provide data for areas where no ground measurements are available, based on the interpolation of area-based information from sampled sites with similar attributes; subjected only to the size of the area and the spatial resolution of the imagery. The potential of SRS is sometimes difficult to realize. This is because the current civilian satellites do not provide data with the necessary spatial and temporal resolution for some applications, as well as suffering from cloud cover (Barrett & Curtis, 1992). The spatial and temporal resolution of satellite data, however, is suited to all applications discussed in this paper. SRS has been successfully employed in various relevant applications which can be broadly grouped into surface and subsurface applications: (a) Applications concerning surface water, are based on the fact that the water absorption is less than 10% of the incoming electromagnetic radiant energy in the visible wavelength (0.4-0.6 urn), while it will increase rapidly above this limit to reach about 60% at 0.7 urn. Sensor bands are designed to benefit from these characteristics. Sensors operating in the band 0.6-0.7 um show good contrast between land features and vegetated/non-vegetated areas (Curran, 1985), while sensors operating in the 0.8-1.1 urn band are best suited to reveal most contrast between land and water features, (b) Applications in subsurface water mapping include both groundwater and soil moisture. Groundwater is mapped indirectly. This is done by mapping a significant number of groundwater-related phenomena such as detecting fractures, and the intersection of linear fractures or lineaments, which correlate with the occurrence of groundwater or, by locating anomalous areas of temperature in streams or coastal regions, which might be due to groundwater outflow (Askew & Nemec, 1980; Siegal & Gillespie, 1980). Soil moisture is also an important water resource as it is the immediate water supply for crops. The presence of soil moisture affects the characteristics of the electromagnetic radiation reflected Satellite remote sensing and GIS for maximizing water resources in Iraq 25 or emitted from soil due to the basic effect that moisture has on reflectance. This field is well established and applications include estimating soil water content (Ideso et al, 1975; Ideso & Ehrler, 1976) and evaluating soil moisture (Schmer & Werner, 1974; Barrett & Curtis, 1992). This paper seeks to illustrate the potential and pitfalls of employing SRS and GIS in maximizing the use of water resources in the Middle East. Iraq has been selected as a case study in order to demonstrate the relevance and applicability of each potential application. Based on the success of these applications a Drainage Basin Information System is proposed to store, integrate, manage and analyse data relating to water resources. Iraq was chosen for three reasons. First, it is one of the most northerly Arab countries and will represent the worst possible scenario for cloud cover throughout the year. Secondly, the water shortages have parallels in almost every other country in the region. Thirdly it is likely to be faced with a unique water shortage scenario in the future and SRS and GIS might help to minimize the potential hazards and possible damage. POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS OF SRS IN IRAQ SRS holds great potential for a range of applications in a country like Iraq which has little or no cloud cover during summer (June-September). Agricultural systems are simple, pollution is limited and regular ground referenced data can be gathered from the establishments which are in charge of rivers, dams and reservoirs, irrigation and reclamation schemes. These characteristics indicate the practicality of employing satellite data to investigate and manage the use of water resources in Iraq. The main sources of water are the Tigris and Euphrates which flow into Iraq from, Syria and Turkey. These countries have plans using larger amounts of the river water which consequently will reduce the flow into Iraq (Clark, 1991). In case of a reduction crops will fail, water quality will decline due to increased salinity, groundwater storage will be reduced and, overall, a variety of water-related hazards will occur. As a result water is likely to become an even more precious resource in Iraq in the future. Consequently accurate and judicious management of limited water resources are of great importance. The more information the water manager has about the hydrologie cycle in the country, the better he is able to make decisions allocating the scarce water resources for consumption, industrial use, irrigation, power generation and recreation. In times of excess, flood control may become the primary task; in times of shortage, irrigation and power generation may be primary concerns. One way of achieving this is by adopting an holistic view by establishing a GIS for which Landsat images could provide a regular update. Such an Information System could then be employed for operational purposes; an arrangement which may perusade managers that SRS in combination with a GIS holds a great potential. These potential applications include: (a) Landcover and landuse. Landcover and landuse are important for hydrological studies, first, because they determine to a large extent the process of runoff generation. Secondly, they are excellent indirect indicators of the hydrologie conditions and the geophysical characteristics which determine them. Information on landcover and landuse is also of indirect, but fundamental, importance to the 26 (b) (c) (d) (e) Serwan M. J. Baban estimation of current and future demands for water. In Iraq the principle use of water is for irrigation. It is very difficult, by conventional means, to accurately survey the areas sown each season to each type of crop, and yet without such information it is impossible to design and operate agricultural water supply schemes in an effective manner. This application is possible as many cloud free coverages can be obtained. Water supply. The majority of the applications to be discussed are concerned with improving the understanding of the hydrology of Iraq as a basis for an assessment of its surface and groundwater resources. Landsat observations can be used to aid in the location of potential dam sites, aqueducts and canals and in this way contribute directly to the planning of water resource projects designed to meet the national water demand. This application is particularly important as the fate of reliable continuous water sources (Tigris and Euphrates) are likely to be subject to future reductions. More reservoirs and water storage are likely to be needed in order to fulfil the water needs of the country. Mapping of river networks (Tigris and Euphrates and their tributaries). Satellite imagery can provide frequent images of the Tigris and Euphrates configurations. Comparing multidate images can clearly indicate the vulnerable portions of the embankments and spurs where the rivers are concentrating their erosional attack. These information will help engineers to plan erosion control works. This application is possible as the increase in inflow takes place in late spring the weather conditions are suitable for obtaining many satellite images. Mapping of floods. The Tigris and Euphrates inundate their flood plain between April and May. Immense areas in lower Iraq are regularly flooded and levees often collapse resulting in wide scale damage. Satellite imagery of these rivers and their basins before, during or even few days after the flood can provide good coverage for a vast area study (Deutsch & Ruggles, 1978). Improved contrast between land and water boundaries can be obtained by rationing and contrast stretching techniques. This will furnish crucial information concerning the floods, help to appraise the spatial extent of flood-prone areas and rapidly estimate the economic consequences of flooding, particularly with respect to agriculture. This information can also be used for the planning of flood control and the development of flood protection measures. The existence of cloud-free skies, and the duration of the flood which usually extends for a week or more, makes this application possible. Drainage basin and river characteristics. Mapping of landforms and drainage networks is important in delineating basin boundaries and the major physical dimensions affecting the occurrence of a stream flow. Both automated and visual analyses of satellite data can detect changes in the drainage pattern, land cover/land use (forest, agriculture, barren land, settlement, wetland, waterbody) in river basins accurately. The reconnaissance and development of water resources in many developing countries, including Iraq, is based on simple regression models relating streamflow to drainage basin characteristics. Near infrared bands (0.7-1.0 urn) are reliable for preparing maps of the Tigris and Euphrates river networks, basin boundaries, drainage basins, drainage density (total length of channel per unit area) and stream frequency (number of junctions per unit area). These are the most important parameters in developing regional Satellite remote sensing and GIS for maximizing water resources in Iraq (f) (g) (h) (i) 27 (national) hydrologie models which can be involved in many calculations and predictions concerning the development of water resources in rivers. This application is possible as many coverages can be obtained under suitable conditions. Snow cover mapping. The extent of snow cover, which represents the stored amount of water in the Zagros mountains, and the state of the snow are both important for river flow forecasting. This information is necessary for water power generation, irrigation, domestic water supply, flood control and planning by water management generally. If a multiple purpose reservoir is to maintain a specified storage capacity to leave room for flood control, and at the same time keep a minimum water volume stored in order to improve the low flows, its successful operation depends on short-term and seasonal forecasts of inflow. The cloud cover might prevent a useful application during the winter. Such an application requires scientific coordination between the neighbouring countries Iraq and Turkey. Mapping and monitoring surface water storage for assessing water availability and for planing reservoir regulation and National Integrated Water Resource Utilization. Time based information on the quantity of water available in storage reservoirs and lakes is required for judicious utilization for irrigation and for hydropower development. Satellite data can help estimating the volume of storage either through mapping of depths (if possible) and extensions of water or establishing statistically significant relationships between the water area and the stored water volume (Baban, 1993b). The repetitive coverage will help to estimate the water availability not only in the beginning of the agricultural season, but also during its depletion with time so that irrigation targets can be realistically fixed and achieved. This application will become extremely important when the second and the subsequent phases of filling of the Atta-turk dams will start and the water inflow into Iraq will be reduced. Water development and irrigation project calculations should be based on the available water storage within Iraq. Cloud cover may be the major limiting factor in monitoring efforts during winter time and the early spring season. Studying sedimentation problems in reservoirs. Sedimentation in reservoirs is a serious problem with most impoundments. Sedimentation reduces their capacity and shortens their productive life. Remote sensing techniques can map concentrations of suspended solids/turbidity in the surface water (Baban, 1994). This may help eliminating or tracing sediment sources, usually as a result of bank or soil erosion. Cloud cover might be a serious limiting factor in winter time and the early spring season, particularly in northern Iraq, where most of the tributaries exist. Detecting groundwater. Satellite data are useful for mapping zones of potential groundwater resources. From satellite imagery a significant number of waterrelated phenomena can be surveyed qualitatively and, occasionally, quantitatively. Examples include landforms, drainage patterns, structural lineaments, geological formations of interest (mostly limestone and conglomerates) vegetation patterns, recharge and discharge areas. This information is of great value in large scale preliminary investigations of available groundwater resources (thus saving time, labour and the expense of ground- 28 Serwan M. J. Baban search procedures). This would be valuable in many parts of central and western Iraq, where groundwater is the main source of water. Such groundwater resources can be used to supplement the limited sources of surface water for irrigation in most parts of the country. This application is possible as all the necessary conditions are fulfilled for successful ground coverage during the long dry summer season. (j) Soil moisture. Soil moisture information is important to the agriculturist. A deficit in moisture may lead to the wilting of plants, and timely remedial action through irrigation can save the crops. Remote sensing has a crucial role to play in this field by ensuring the optimum use of water and the best possible conditions for various crops. (k) Monitoring agricultural resources. Irrigated areas fed by reservoirs are distinctly visible on satellite imagery. Multitemporal data sets could be used to monitor the irrigated cropland through time. This information could be used effectively in many applications such as the establishment of an agricultural mapping programme, which is necessary to provide information on soils, percentage of vegetation cover and land use for delineation of new agricultural areas, is an application where this information could be used effectively. Information on topography would be of assistance in irrigation planning and watershed management. It can also provide a significant input to water consumption models for large irrigation projects, and for forecasting and estimating crop production. Determining the effectiveness of various irrigation and cropping methods, different methods have varying levels of water application efficiency and recommendations. Improved efficiency levels could be made particularly where non efficient cropping patterns and irrigation methods are used. These applications will increase in importance as water resources are reduced and better management is needed to make higher production and optimum crop selection with less water available. This application is possible through the summer, but cloud cover will be the major limiting factor during the winter. (i) Water quality. Detecting the chemical, physical and biological characteristics of all water bodies in the country, and identifying the source of any possible pollution or contamination which might cause degradation of the water quality, is also possible with SRS (Baban, 1993a, 1994). This application will become more important as the effects of eutrophication are speeded up and magnified due the reduction in water quantity. Industrial discharges to the waterbodies will then represent a real threat to water quality, particularly in the summer season, where the temperature and light, the other two necessary parameters for algae growth, are available. By using satellite imagery and remote sensing techniques all waterbodies can be classified trophically and monitored regularly by updates. Representative individual members for each class could be selected for ground referenced data collection and for calibration purposes (Baban, 1996). A PROPOSED DRAINAGE BASIN INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR IRAQ Planning and management of water resources at national level will call increasingly for an integrated overview of different types of hydrological data gathered from Satellite remote sensing and GIS for maximizing water resources in Iraq 29 different sources, by variety of means, and often maintained in separate establishments. A homogenization should be introduced by establishing organizational devices, such as a National Office for Water Resources and Planning. A GIS is necessary to handle and analyse the large amount of data. Fig. 1 shows a proposed Drainage Basin Information System, which could be used to store, integrate, manipulate, combine and analyse spatial and temporal data as well as to visualize data from various sources. The system should also be used for constructing, simulating and modelling various management scenarios responding to a range of conditions for a specified problem. Data input (a) Ground Referenced Information. This consists of two parts: (i) "Surface (Land) Information" such as landcover, land use, topography, geology, structure, soil, husbandry practices, crop types, industrial locations, etc.. These information can be used for checking and calibrating remotely sensed data, (ii) "Hydrological Information", which can contain information on surface water, ground water and the drainage basins (Tigris and Euphrates). The information listed in (i) and (ii) will be stored in a digital form and the GIS will facilitate data integration in terms of resolution, scale and projection systems. (b) Remotely Sensed Information. After performing all necessary corrections on the raw data the integration process is followed by a data selection and processing stage. Individual acquisition dates and bands could be selected and subjected to image processing techniques in order to find the optimum starting point for the interpreter. A image processing stage follows, where different individual bands could be combined in different ways such as rationing in order to create and enhance the required information. All information is stored in a central Database. There will be a display facility in order to visualize and monitor the effects of the applied data manipulation processes for both data sources, the Ground Referenced Information and the Remotely Sensed Information. Data integration and processing (a) Relevant layers of "Surface (Land) Information" can be selected and combined to create specific "land units" according to the purpose of the operation/research. (b) Relevant sections from "Hydrological Information" layers can be selected and combined to extract specific "hydrological units" according to the purpose of the operation/research. (c) Different "land units" can be selectively combined with the "hydrological units" to form a purpose-acquired ground-referenced data map. (d) Established algorithms for different applications of interest using Remotely Sensed Information could be used to extract, calculate/estimate, interpolate/ extrapolate and store all necessary parameters for the whole area of interest. Senvan M. J. Baban 30 GROUND REFERENCED INFORMATION |HY HYDROLOGICAL NFORMATION LAND INFORMATION REMOTELY SENSED INFORMATION | RAW DATA | Processing Stage Obtain basemaps for Obtain basemaps for o Geometric Correction a Surface water O Land cover a Radiometric Correction a Groundwater O Topography a Atmospheric Correction a Water quality parameters a Drainage basins a etc Implement Fig. 1 A proposed Drainage Basin Information System for managing water resources in Iraq. Satellite remote sensing and GIS for maximizing water resources in Iraq 31 (e) The output from analyses of Remotely Sensed Information could be compared with values obtained from Ground Reference Information by using standard statistical measures. A calibration stage for the remotely sensed data can follow. Data analysis (a) The estimated values from analyses of Remotely Sensed Information can be compared with previous values/estimates of the same parameters. The differences or changes between images/maps presenting their concentrations and spatial distributions can be analysed and stored. (b) GIS facilities can be used to interpolate/extrapolate, display and compare between the value and distribution pattern of different output sources and to establish variations between different parameters and update the information about water resources in the areas of interest as well as storing this information. (c) The GIS could be used: (i) to identify potential problems and their geographical locations, (ii) to establish various management scenarios responding to various conditions of the identified problem and (iii) to run these scenarios and reflect on the resource management, environmental, economical and social consequences of each action over various periods of time. CONCLUSION The examination and analysis described above indicates the suitability of SRS and GIS for managing limited water resources in the Middle East. The following aspects of SRS have to be suitable for applications, which are of interest for a hydrologist: spatial resolution, spectral resolution, radiometric resolution and temporal resolution as well as having cloud free skies. Encouraging factors for using SRS in this region include simple systems especially agricultural systems, the limited amount of pollution and the national ownership of water the resources. Adopting the proposed Drainage Basin Information System will have direct and indirect advantages: directly, it will help managers to adopt an holistic approach and will update them with information concerning the quantity and quality of available water resources within a particular period, and through the GIS various management options can be examined, suggesting the best option to effectively manage these resources to satisfy a predefined priority list. Indirectly, it will promote objective thinking, planning and decision making. Broadly speaking this, and other similar systems, are required by water resource managers to conduct all of the examined application in a safe "virtual" medium without causing irreversible damage in the real environment, in the same manner as new pilots get introduced into flying through simulations. Acknowledgement The author thanks Professor Ian D. L. Foster for reading and constructively commenting on the paper. 32 Serwan M. J. Baban REFERENCES Askew, A. 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