Job Growth in the Region
Economic Press Briefing: August 18, 2016
The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

The 2 nd Federal Reserve District
Regions in the District
Upstate
Puerto Rico &
U.S. Virgin Islands
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
Northern
NJ
Downstate
1

Overview
•
The regional economy has continued to grow slowly over the past year, with many parts of the District seeing job gains.
•
New York City remains on a strong growth trajectory, while job growth in upstate NY and northern NJ has been slower. Puerto Rico continues to lose jobs.
•
Middle-wage jobs have finally started to return, though to different degrees across the region.
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
2

Regional Employment Trends
Indexes of Total Employment, Seasonally Adjusted
112
Index (Dec2007=100)
106
100
Upstate NY
United
States
Downstate NY
Jun
+1.7%
Y-O-Y +1.8%
Jul
+0.4%
+1.4%
94
Northern
NJ
Puerto Rico
88
-2.2%
82
2007 2008 2009
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com; data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff.
2015 2016
4

Sectors Driving Regional Job Growth
Net Change in Employment, Thousands, 2013-2016 (YTD)
150
120
90
60
30
0
Downstate NY
Health & Education Services
129
Professional & Business Services
88 Leisure & Hospitality
70
Construction
44
Government
5
-30
75
Northern NJ
60
45
30
15
0
28
22
18
13
4
-15
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com.
20
10
0
-10
50
40
30
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
14
8
4
Upstate NY
4
Puerto Rico
-2
-3
-9
-9
-9
-20
5

Recent Growth in and around New York City
2015 Private-Sector Job Growth
Strong
Moderate
Modest
Little or None
Declining
Ulster
Orange
Dutchess
Putnam
Warren
Hunterdon
Sussex
Westchester
Rockland
Morris
Passaic
Essex
Union
Bergen
Bronx
Queens
Kings
Nassau
Somerset
Middlesex
Fairfield
Suffolk
Monmouth
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and Moody’s Economy.com.
6

New York City’s New Growth Sector
Number of Jobs
200
Thousands
+12,000
2010 to 2015
150 Securities
Employment
+53,000
100
Technology
Employment
50
Technology Employment
• Computer manufacturing
• Electronic shopping
• Software publishing
• Data processing, hosting
• Internet/web search portals
• Computer systems design
• Scientific R&D services
Shading indicates NBER recession
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and Moody’s Economy.com.
7

Recent Growth in Upstate NY
2015 Private-Sector Job Growth
Strong
Moderate
Modest
Little or None
Declining
Rochester
Watertown
Syracuse
Buffalo
Ithaca
Elmira Binghamton
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and Moody’s Economy.com.
Utica
North
Country
Glens
Falls
Albany
8

Upstate Manufacturing Employment
Indexes of Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted
120
Index (Jan1990=100)
100
80
60
40
Albany
Buffalo
Syracuse
Rochester
Binghamton
20
Shading indicates NBER recessions
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com.
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$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
Job Categories
Based on 2015 Median Wages, United States
Higher Wage
20%
Management
Computer & Math
Legal
Engineering
Business & Finance
Healthcare Practitioners
Sciences
Middle Wage
$20,000
$0
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics).
50%
Education
Arts & Entertainment
Installation & Repair
Construction
Social Services
Protective Services
Administrative Support
Production
Transportation
Lower Wage
30%
Healthcare Support
Sales
Building Maintenance
Personal Care
Farming
Food Preparation
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2,500
2,000
Job Gains in the United States
Net Change in Total Employment, Thousands
2,104
2010 to 2013
2,184
2013 to 2015
2,261
1,500
1,000
500
1,205
1,470
1,577
0
Higher
Wage
Middle
Wage
Lower
Wage
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics).
Higher
Wage
Middle
Wage
Lower
Wage
12

Middle-Wage Jobs Returning in the U.S.
•
Growth in traditional blue collar jobs:
 Construction [+400,000]
 Production
 Transportation
[+300,000]
[+500,000]
 Installation & Repair [+250,000]
•
Education jobs growing again as local government fiscal pressures have subsided. [+150,000]
•
Rebound in Administrative Support jobs. [+400,000]
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
13

180
Job Gains and Losses in the Region
Net Change in Total Employment, Thousands
Downstate NY: 2010-2013
144
102
Downstate NY: 2013-2015
179
157
130
90
0
Higher
-90
90
18
Middle Lower
New Jersey: 2010-2013
Higher Middle Lower
New Jersey: 2013-2015
45
0
27
Higher
7
Middle
17
Lower
-45
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics).
35
Higher
23
Middle
27
Lower
14

60
Job Gains and Losses in the Region
Net Change in Total Employment, Thousands
Upstate NY: 2010-2013 Upstate NY: 2013-2015
30
22
0
15
Higher
Middle
Lower
-25
-30
20
0
Puerto Rico: 2010-2013
14
2
Higher
Middle
Lower
-20
-29
-40
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics).
12
Higher
5
Middle
19
Lower
Puerto Rico: 2013-2015
4
Higher
Middle
-39
Lower
-2
15

Middle-Wage Job Gains Weak in Some Areas
Upstate NY
 Limited bounce back in Education and Construction jobs coupled with ongoing declines in Administrative Support and
Production jobs.
New Jersey
 Steep losses in Administrative Support and Production jobs.
Puerto Rico
 Broad-based declines in middle-wage jobs, with large job losses tied to the island’s weak public sector ( Education , Protection ) along with an acceleration in Construction job losses.
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
16

Summary
•
New York City continues to be an engine of growth in the region, with a burgeoning tech sector and widespread gains in middle-wage jobs.
•
Growth has been slower in upstate NY and northern NJ, where middle-wage jobs have not bounced back as much.
•
Puerto Rico continues to struggle under the weight of economic stagnation, a fiscal crisis, and out-migration.
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
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Recent Job Growth in the District
Percent Change in Total Employment, 2015Q2 to 2016Q2
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
NYC
2.1%
Lower
Hudson
Valley
0.7%
0.7%
Northern NJ
1.5%
Long
Island
Fairfield
1.4%
Buffalo
0.9%
Rochester
Albany
Syracuse
0.5% 0.4% 0.1%
-0.1%
Binghamton
-1.0%
Utica
United
States
-2% -2.2%
Puerto Rico
-3%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com; data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff.
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