Nilay AKCAKMAK
This paper is organized as follows: It presents the research design of the thesis. It includes the
aim for the thesis, the methodology proposed and the motivation behind the selection of the
case.
The thesis attempts to examine the changing nature of Turkish foreign policy towards the
Caucasus and the reasons behind it. The main research question of the thesis is “How does
Turkey’s new line activism effect Turkish foreign policy in the Caucasus?” It deals with the
perception of interests of regional actors, namely Turkey and Russia and examines soft power
instruments on the scene. It is needed to examine under what circumstances new line activism
had emerged, what the link between the new activism and foreign policy and how new line
activism was built (or institutionalized). I need to ask whether new line activism is interestdriven or path-dependent. An empirical analysis using rational choice institutionalism will be
conducted to answer the research question at hand. The research will be conducted using a
theory-testing methodology. Some claims on Turkish foreign policy will be examined. I
expect that rational choice institutionalism will provide an explanation. Since the process at
hand is long, the type of analysis will be process tracing rather than historical explanation. It
will help me to pinpoint the events that are relevant to my research. I will find an answer
whether foreign policy is oriented by rational actors who would act according to their interest
calculations. (Since the government change in 2002, what has been witnessed in Turkish
foreign policy are the result of the preferences of the decision-makers of the new
government?)
Rather than arguing that there is a totally new line of foreign policy, the thesis aims to identify
both the elements of continuity and rupture in the style and behavior of Turkish foreign
policy. In the Caucasus, Ankara has taken steps that may lead to the normalization of relations
with Yerevan and the breaking of the stalemate over Nagorno-Karabakh. The Russo-Georgian
War of 2008, however, demonstrates that Turkish diplomacy faces a severe test for which it
may not be prepared. The Russo-Georgian War will be a case study. Rational choice
institutionalism necessitates micro-historical approach. I have to look at this period from
Turkish and Russian perspectives separately. I need to provide a detailed analysis of the case.
The war revealed that old institutional practices continue to constrain Turkey’s diplomacy. It
should be analyzed from the Russian perspective as well. In an institutional context I will find
out the ways in which individual members of Russian and Turkish foreign policy seek to
maximize their interests. (and which interests)
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Nilay AKCAKMAK
Since 2000s Turkish foreign policy has experienced a new foreign policy – one that sought to
maximize Turkey’s influence in its neighborhood. Turkey’s regional and global positions, its
relations with the countries in surrounding regions, and its long-lasting disputes with its
neighbors were reshaped through the adoption of the “zero-problem with-neighbors” policy.
In line with this policy, Turkey has taken a pro-active stance and followed a multidimensional foreign policy approach to establish itself, first, as a conciliatory partner for
peace with its neighbors, and second, as an agent of mediation between its clashing
neighboring countries, followed by the notion of maximum cooperation. They are attempts to
create an autonomous, self-regulating, and self-confident foreign policy agenda while
normalizing the previous crisis-driven policymaking in Turkey’s foreign relations.
In the thesis, I argue that a fuller understanding of the recent activism in Turkish foreign
policy, and in particular the changing nature of relations in the Caucasus, requires me to
engage in the study of the increasing economic interdependence and the analysis of broadly
redefined national interests. Therefore, the thesis aims to explain Turkey’s relations with its
neighbors through the neo-liberal theory model put forth by Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S.
Nye, which underlines the importance of interdependence and cooperation among states.
It seems to be problematic to put rational choice institutionalist approach by putting its
hypothesis into a test in order to find out whether new line activism affect foreign policy,
while engaging neo-liberal theory. (?)
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