Addressing Instability
BECCS and climate –
Saveguards needed
Stephan Singer
Stockholm
11 June 2012
© Wild Wonders of Europe / Inaki Relanzon / WWF
The Energy Report
The Energy Report
Mill t OE
Global energy
consumption trends
Source: BP Stat. Review 2011
The Energy Report
Global fuel CO2 emissions
14000
12000
Mill t CO2
10000
1971
1985
2000
2008
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Coal
Oil
Gas
Source: IEA, 2011
April 2011
Projected global fuel demand development in a “Gas
Policy Scenario” – coal peaking prior to 2020 (IEA)
IEA WEO Special Report – The Golden Age of Gas (2011): Global primary gas demand reaches
5.1. tcm in 2035 (+1.8 tcm compared to today and +0.6% tcm revised figure compared to WEO
2010 New Policies Scenario). The share of natural gas in the global energy mix increases from
21% to 25%, overtaking coal by 2030
28 July 2016 - 4
IPCC GHG emissions and temperature scenarios until 2100,
A1B is one of the central IPCC scenarios (+3 degree by 2100)
Source: IPCC (4AR, 2007)
Regional annual temperature change by 2100 compared to
1980- 1999 average under A1B
Source: IPCC (4AR, 2007)
Regional seasonal % precipitation change by average 20902099 compared to 1980- 1999 average under A1B;
left: December to February; right: June to August
Source: IPCC (4AR, 2007)
Marine pH development and change under A1B;
Pre-industrial
Present day
Projected for
2100 under SRES
A1FI scenario
Surface ocean pH
Source: Turkley & Findlay (2009)
Atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations over last 800,000
years – triggering sea level rise and decline – Note: today’s
CO2 is at 388 ppm, higher than ever in at least 1 mio years
Source: Hansen, Sato (2011);
Future danger zones of temperature increases above 1990
Source: IPCC (4AR, 2007)
Once the damage is done…..slow responses of nature
resulting from CO2 cuts
Source: IPCC (AR 4, 2007)
Hypothetical 100% cut of GHG emissions do NOT change CO2
concentrations in atmosphere for a long time UNLESS CO2 is
removed (Negative Emissions)
Source: Hadley Centre (HadCM3LC model 2009)
IPCC Emissions/stabilisation scenarios
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Zero
emissions
globally
Source: IPCC 2007
IPCC Emissions/stabilisation scenarios
And resulting temperature responses
..and where
we need to
stabilise..
Source: IPCC 2007
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Global CO2 budgets for various climate scenarios
Green and yellow pathways
Source: IPCC 2007
The global GHG budget requires to retire about
60% of all known conventional fossil fuel
recoverable reserves til 2050 (if CCS is excluded)
The Energy Report
Gt CO2e
G
A
P
2010 - 2050
Source: OPEC Secretariate 2011, BP 2011, IEA 2011, IPCC 2007
Regarding all fossil fuel conventional
and unconventional resources about 95%
need to stay untouched, mainly coal
Global
allowance
until 2050
Source: IPCC 2011
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Recent Science
“…A 450 ppm CO2e concentration level is consistent
with a probability level of 60% to exceed 2 degree
temperature increase at equilibrium …limiting global
temperature increase at equilibrium to 2 (1.5)
degree above pre-industrial levels with a 66% chance
would require stabilisation of atmospheric CO2e
from all forcing agents at less than 415 (370) ppm
CO2e….ranges of 380 – 420 ppm CO2e for 2 degree
and 350 – 375 ppm CO2e for 1.5 degree C….”
Rogelij, Meinshausen, Knutti; NATURE climate change; 2012
The Energy Report
Negative emissions
1. Up to MINUS 1600 g CO2e/kWh in ‘pure’ biomass
CCS plant and high capture rate
2. Compares to PLUS 350 – 1000 g CO2e/kWh in fossil
power systems w/o CCS
3. Lower in co-firing with coal/gas
4. However, negative emissions benefits from biomass
power need to be compared with low emissions
using biomass and replacing fossil fuels in sectors
w/o alternative (shipping, aviation). System
approach.
5. Amount of land use of biomass power?
The Energy Report
Land use of BECSS
1. One 1t CO2 (0.3t C) negative emissions “requires”
about 0.6t dry matter of wood. Yields are about 2 –
10 t/ha/y in various regions and forests.
2. One ton CO2 reduction = 0.06 - 0.3 ha/y
3. One Gt CO2 negative emissions (2% of global CO2e)
requires about 60 – 300 Mha forest land.
4. But there are only about 250-500 Mha available
(ECOFYS, WWF) for global biomass production based
on sustainable land use, securing food production,
and biodiversity.
Energy type distribution until 2050
The Energy Report
SOURCE: Ecofys Energy Scenario,
2011, www.panda.org
Issues – competitive uses
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The Energy Report
RES at about 13% today
Bioenergy about 80% of all RES
Traditional bioenergy in developing countries 2/3 of that,
50% of all logged wood.
Modern bioenergy fast growing (1/3 of land “grab”?)
2030 targets will contain bioenergies
WWF Vision: from 50 EJ (2000) to max 110 EJ (2050), all
based on sustainable and low GHG sourcing, phasing out
traditional bioenergy use
Non-energy biomass replacing FF with about PLUS 70 EJ
(2050)?
Solid biomass CCS for climate protection?
Reality : 250 – 300 EJ ?
The Energy Report
Needed approaches
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Upscaling of bioenergy policy into new areas, policy interventions,
innovations – towards a quantitative bioenergy cap
Sectoral allocation for biomass, biofuels (aviation, industrial fuels)
Address meat consumption – 4 Gha used
Demand Side approaches, recycling, re-use, countering unlimited
‘bio-plastification’
Bioenergy phase-in/phase out approach (rH2, rCH4) in context of
full electrification
Addressing energy poverty in developing countries
New materials, R & D, 2nd-3rd generation biofuels, algae
Address ILUC in a more holistic, ‘fair’ way
Binding certification/GHG accounting in national contexts
The Energy Report
Scenario summary – Supply
Bioenergy & land-use
Global Land Use Distribution Today
24
Global temperatures since 65 million years when CO2 conc.
was about 1000 + ppm in atmosphere – 3 degree increase
equals warming last seen about 30 million years ago
Source: Hansen, Sato (2011);
Global temperatures since 0.5 million years over the various
glacial and interglacial periods
Source: Hansen, Sato (2011);