Vermont Power
Supply
September 30, 2005
Dave Lamont
Vermont Department of Public Service
US Electricity Source Mix
1999 and 2003
1999
2003
O t h e r R e nOet w
ha
eb
r l es
H y dr oe l e c t r i c
2% 0%
8%
Ot he r R e ne wa bl e s
H y dr oe l e c t r i c
Ot he r
2%
7%
0%
N uc l e a r
N uc l e a r
20%
20%
C oa l
C oa
52%
51
Ot he r Ga s e s
Ot he r Ga s e s
0%
0%
N a t ur a l Ga s
N a t ur a l Ga s
17%
15%
P e t r ol e um
Source: DOE EIA
3%
P e t r ol e um
3%
2
Regional Electric Mix
1990, 1999, and 2003
1990
1999
Ot her Ren ewables
O t h e r R e n e w a b lOetsh e r
y d r o e l e c t r i c7 %
8%
0%
C oa l
Hydr oelect r ic Con ven t ion al9 %
17%
7%
2003
Ot her
Coal
0%
15 %
Ot he r
Ot he r R e ne wa bl e s
0%
H y d r o e l e c t r i c7 %
C oa l
15%
6%
P e t r ol e um
10%
N u cr loleeum
ar
Pet
27%
Nuclear
P e t r ol e um
26%
27%
N uc l e a r
24%
33%
Ot he r Ga s e s
ae
t us r a l G a s
O t h e r GN
as
8%
0%
Ot her Gases
Nat ur alGas
0%
0%
N a t ur a l Ga s
35%
19 %
Source Data: DOE EIA
3
Vermont Electricity Mix 2003
Instate Source Mix
Committed Resource
Source Mix
OiGas
l
P et r ol eum
V e r m o n t I n s t a t e MCoal
ix ( in s id e b o r d e r s )
Ot her Renewabl es
0%
7%
Syst em
0%
Nat ur al Gas
1%1%
19 %
0%
Hydr oel ect r i c
Nuclear
19%
36%
HQ
28%
Nucl ear
74%
Hydr o
Ren ewable
9%
6%
Source: DOE EIA
Source: DPS
However some utilities have very different profiles
4
Vermont Committed Resources
MW of Maximum Claimed Capability
1400
1200
1000
MW
800
600
400
200
0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
VT Peak
Vt Yankee
Maine Yankee
Conn. Yankee
2001
2002
2003
Millstone 3
Merrimack 2
Ontario Hydro 3
Hydro Peak Shaving
2004
2005
McNeil
NYPA
DPS HQ Via Highgate
VPPSA 5YR Firm
2006
2007
HQ Schedule A
HQ Schedule B
HQ C-1
HQ C-2
2008
2009
HQ C-3
HQ C-4a+b
IPP's
VT Oil & Gas
2010
2011
Stony Brook
Wyman 4
Canal 2
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
5
Vermont Monthly Avg Wholesale Price
(March-03 to Aug-05)
$302
$55
Source: ISO-NE
6
Electricity Cost/Price Projections
Electricity Cost and Price Projectsions Wholesale to Vermont
(DPS Preliminary Estimates Sept. 2005)
0.180
0.160
0.140
0.120
0.100
0.080
0.060
0.040
0.020
Source: DPS
Energy
Energy plus Capacity
Energy Real $2005
Energy Plus Capacity $2005
20
39
20
37
20
35
20
33
20
31
20
29
20
27
20
25
20
23
20
21
20
19
20
17
20
15
20
13
20
11
20
09
20
07
20
05
0.000
7
Vermont - Power Prices for
Committed Resources
Forward
Power Prices
(DPS 2003)
Recent
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
$45.47
$40.11
$42.73
$45.34
$47.96
$50.58
$51.26
$51.74
$52.47
$53.2
2
$55.1
3
$57.9
4
$56.8
1
$52.0
6
$50.1
9
Vermont Yankee
$42.00/MWh
All Hours
Hydro Quebec
$68.00/MWh
75% Cap Factor
Owned Hydro
$30.00/MWh
Some Dispatch
IPP
$120.00/MWh
Run of River + Wood
8
Future Contract Prices in New
England
Average Contract Price for Energy January
and February are approximately
$150/MWh
$160/MWh
 Some moderation, but futures prices
remain at elevated levels for several years

9
Electricity sales- slow growth
VERMONT STATE LOAD - POWER PERIOD
NOVEMBER 1 TO OCTOBER 31
MWH
Thousands
100.00%
6
90.00%
80.00%
4
70.00%
60.00%
2
50.00%
40.00%
POWER YEAR MWH
Load Factor
0
04
01
02
03
99
00
98
96
97
95
93
94
92
90
91
89
87
88
86
83
84
85
81
82
80
78
79
77
75
76
74
71
72
73
69
70
68
66
67
65
63
64
61
62
60
59
30.00%
10
Slow growth in annual peak,
summer peak rising faster
VERMONT STATE
STATE PEAK
PEAK LOAD
LOAD -- POWER
POWERPERIOD
PERIOD
PERIOD NOVEMBER
1, TO
31 31
PERIOD
NOVEMBER
1, OCTOBER
TO OCTOBER
1,100
1,100
1.80
1.80
1,000
1,000
1.70
1.70
900
900
1.60
1.60
800
800
KW
KW
Thousands
Thousands
700
700
1.50
1.50
600
600
1.40
1.40
500
500
1.30
1.30
400
400
300
300
1.20
1.20
200
200
Pow
er Year Peak
Power
Peak
Summer
SummerPeak
Peak
1.10
1.10
100
100
Power Year
Year Peak
Peak--1,037,020
1,037,020 -- December
December 2004
2004
SummerPeak
August
Summer
Peak -- 986,060
986,060 -August 2002
2002
0
1.00
1.00
59
61
61
60
60
63
63
62
65
65
64
64
67
67
66
66
69
69
68
68
71
71
70
70
73
73
72
72
75
75
74
74
77
77
76
76
79
78
78
81
81
80
80
83
83
82
82
85
85
84
84
87
87
86
86
89
89
88
88
91
91
90
90
93
93
92
92
95
95
94
94
97
97
96
96
99
99
98
98
01
01
00
00
03
03
02
02
04
04
11
So…. Why Do We Need
Transmission???
12
Locational Marginal Price (“LMP”)
13
GO SOX !!!!!!!
14