CORP Symposium
Fort Collins, CO
August 16, 2006
Session 3:
NPOESS AND GOES-R Applications
Tropical Cyclone Applications
Ray Zehr, NESDIS / RAMM
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Introduction
Satellite Data Types
Tracking and Intensity
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Center location (fixing)
Intensity estimates
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•
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Dvorak Technique
Objective Dvorak Technique
Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)
Short Range Forecasting
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Intensity
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•
•
•
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Track
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•
Current trends
Vertical Shear (Asymmetry)
Sea-surface Temperature
“Rapid” Intensification
Water vapor image applications / Recurvature
Structure
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Outer Winds
Surface Wind Analysis (RMW, Size)
Related structures and weather systems
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Subtropical Cyclones
Hybrid Tropical Cyclones
Extratropical Transition
Landfall
Future Satellites
• ……will have better resolution …
– both in space (spatial)
– and in time (temporal)
Super Rapid-scan Operations
(SRSO)
• Animations of 1-minute interval visible
images
• Comparison with 30-minute interval
• Meso-vortices within the hurricane eye
Multi-Spectral Views of Hurricane Katrina
(from www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html)
Visible
GOES
Microwave:
DMSP SSMI
85 Ghz/H
IR (10.7 m)
GOES
QuikSCAT
Ocean Surface
Winds
Hurricane Stan 2005 Example
IR
TRMM 37 GHz V
AMSR 89 GHz H
Visible
SSM/I Microwave 85Ghz
Atlantic Hurricane Size Differences
Cindy 1999
Intensity: 120 kt
Average R-34 kt: 231 nmi
R-50 kt: 144 nmi
Iris 2001
Intensity: 125 kt
Average R-34 kt: 69 nmi
R-50 kt: 23 nmi
Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit
(AMSU) Intensity Estimates
• AMSU retrieval techniques provide 3-D
temperature/moisture fields
– ~50 km horizontal, 3 km vertical resolution
– Microwave measurements penetrate through cloud tops
• Individual channels correlated with layer temperatures
• CIRA algorithm uses T retrieval input for max wind
estimate
– Operational at NCEP/TPC for 2006 season
– Also estimates radii of 34, 50 and 64 kt winds
• CIMSS algorithm uses two channels to estimate MSLP
– Includes correction for instrument resolution limitations
4. Tropical Cyclone Product
Development
• HES studies with AIRS
– Storm environment evaluation with GPS sondes
from NOAA Jet
– Hurricane eye soundings
– Evaluation of Saharan Air Layer
• Joint project with Hurricane Research Division
• ABI studies
– Evaluation of Dvorak EIR technique
• Joint project with National Hurricane Center
– Genesis and intensity change studies with MSG
data
NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT: A SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE PLATFORM
GPS Sondes from the G-IV
• T, moisture, wind sounding
• 5 meter vertical resolution
• Limited to a few flights per year
Hurricane Emily 7/16/05 1800Z
AIRS Granules and GPS Dropsondes
HES Soundings in Storm Environment
Relative Humidity (%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
100
Pressure (hPa)
200
300
400
GPS
500
Old AIRS
600
New AIRS
700
800
900
1000
Soundings from AIRS, Eta Model Analysis,
and NOAA Jet in Lili Environment
HES Hurricane Eye Soundings
• Preliminary positive results reported on single
Isabel case with AIRS
• New study with 6 cases from Isabel/Lili
• Much larger data set being collected
70
MSLP Error (hPa)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
Li
li
02
Li
li
O
ct
03
Is
a
O
ct
be
Is
a
l1
3
Se
p
be
Is
a
l1
4
Se
p
be
Is
a
l1
6
Se
p
be
l1
7
Se
p
Errors of Eye Sounding
Minimum Pressure Estimates
HES Analysis of Saharan Air Layer
• Jason Dunion (HRD) collected GPS sondes for SAL
case
– Tropical Storm Irene 2005
• AIRS and current GOES sounder retrievals will be
compared
MSG Channel 6 for TS Irene
GSP Sonde Locations
ABI Intensity Estimation
14
1-2 Eye
1-4 Eye
1-2 Ring
1-4 Ring
12
Temperature Difference (C)
• Collaborative study with Jack
Beven, NHC Forecaster
• 13 cases of Dvorak various scene
types
• Proxy data collected
• Jack ran Dvorak EIR with current
GOES and ABI resolution
• Impact on cold ring and warm eye,
with some cancellation
• Database will be greatly expanded
for AWG
10
8
6
4
2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13
Case Number
Warm eye and cold ring TB
differences 1, 2, 4 km resolution
Hurricane Wilma 2005 Before Yucatan Landfall
MODIS 1 km IR Window Channel
Degraded to GOES 4 km resolution
Outer Wind Structure
• Satellite methods for wind structure
analysis
– Active (QuikSCAT) and passive (Windsat)
microwave methods
– GOES feature track winds
– SSM/I wind speed algorithms
– AMSU wind retrievals (experimental)
– GOES IR statistical methods (experimental)
Combined Wind Analysis
Wind Radii
R34 175 180 125 185
R50 120 115 80 125
R64 80 65 60 60
R34 150 120 100 150
R50 100 90 70 90
R64 80 60 45 55
From this
analysis
18 UTC
NHC advisory
Experimental combined wind analysis will be available soon from
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/
Tropical Cyclone Soundings
from ATMS/CrIS
• Temperature/moisture soundings in storm
environment for track prediction
• Hurricane eye soundings for intensity
monitoring
• Balanced wind retrievals for storm
structure analysis
• Proxy data from AIRS/AMSU and
numerical model analysis
Florida Landfalls
Charley 2004 and Wilma 2005
Storm Structure Analysis
• Large variability in outer circulation size
• JTWC interest in 50 kt wind radii for ship
routing
• NHC interest in 34 kt radii for evacuation
planning, 64 kt winds for hurricane
warnings
• NPOESS wind radii methods:
– Ocean surface winds from CMIS
– ATMS/CrIS balance winds
Summary
• NPOESS holds great promise for hurricane
analysis and forecasting
• Temporal resolution is good match for most
processes
• VIIRS, ATMS/CrIS, CMIS and altimeter all useful
• Track forecasting, intensity and structure
monitoring
• Assimilation in numerical forecast models
• NPOESS TC proxy data/algorithm development
web site under development at CIRA