Cultures, Technology, and a
Sustainable World View
Pete Kaslik
Overview of this Lecture
Why is a Math Teacher Talking About a Sustainable World View?
A Brief History of Humanity
A Graphic Look at Humanity’s Current Situation –
The Good, the Bad and the Scary
Choosing a Goal For Humanity
How To Achieve the Goal
Why is a Math Teacher Talking About a
Sustainable World View?
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•
•
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When will I use this?
Not all math has authentic real world applications
Show, don’t tell
Math 107 has liberal course outcomes
Theme-based vs diverse
Why is this Math Teacher Talking About a
Sustainable World View?
• Increased understanding that my view of the world has
been influenced by my culture, other people and things
I’ve read
• I have wondered how many times experts were wrong
about what they taught. So how much of what I now
believe to be true is also wrong?
• What if we could strip away all cultural influences and
expert opinions and give as unbiased as possible
assessment of the current state of the Earth?
A brief history of Humanity
This graph about "hominids“ refers to members of the family of humans,
Hominidae, which consists of all species on our side of the last common
ancestor of humans and living apes.
http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/homs/species.html
A Brief History of Humanity
Population
Culture
Technology
/
http://www.south-africa-tours-and-travel.com
www.freewebs.com/msprzeklas/syllabus.htm
http://seattleplace.com/images/Seattle_Skyline_Referral_Postcard.jpg
Technology
• Technology is the temporary state of matter as it
transitions from being a resource to a useless element in
a sink.
Feedback Loop
• Population
+
+
+
• Technological
Development
Cultural Development
• Thousands of cultures on this planet
• Probably millions or billions if life exists on other planets
• Most accept the culture into which they were born
Cultural Development
“Other cultures are not a failed attempt
at being us. They are a unique expression
of what it means to be human and alive.”
(Wade Davis)
Other Cultural Ideas I Learned this Summer
From “Don’t Sleep, There Are Snakes” by Daniel Everett – A book
about the Pirahã (pee-da-HAN)
• Treat young children as adults
• Don’t understand war or suicide
• Expect proof of claims
• No creation myths or death myths
• Non-materialistic
• Do not seek revenge
Other Cultural Ideas I Learned this Summer
From “Born to Run” by Christopher McDougall – A book
about the Tarahumara (Raramuri)
• Running is a cultural value
• The sole means of competition
• Runs of 30 to 100 miles in a day are common
• Gentle people who run from trouble
My View of the Dominant Culture of Today
• Individuals are more important than the community
• Increasing individual and corporate wealth (and power)
is the goal
• Strive to be number 1
• Technology is always better than “non-technology”
Cultural Transitions
• Some cultures grew to become the dominant culture in a
region or world
• In spite of their population, cultural values and
technology, all past dominant cultures are no longer
dominant.
• Can this happen to the US?
• Can this happen to humanity?
Reasons for the Collapse of Former Great
Societies (from Collapse, by Jared Diamond)
•
•
•
•
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Environmental collapse
Climate change
Hostile neighbors
Decreased support of friendly neighbors
Society’s response to its problems
What if We Could Pick Our Cultural Ideas?
• Shop at the Anthropology Super Mall
• Each cultural idea would need a list of side effects
• What would be the criteria for picking cultural values?
Judging Our Cultural World Views
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•
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By knowledge?
By technology?
By health and longevity?
By happiness?
By the length of time the culture has survived?
A Cultural Criterion
• I propose we judge cultural world views by both their
short term and the long term consequences to people,
nature and the planet.
• Short term – immediate though 1 generation
• Long term – 1 to 1,000 generations
A Graphic Look at Humanities Current Situation
• The Good
• The Bad
• The Scary
Quantitative Assessment of the World (QAW)
• A mathematical (graphic) look at the short term
consequences of the dominant culture’s world view with
implications for the long term consequences
Health and Wealth
• Gapminder World
Knowledge
Scientific Papers Published Each Year
http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/10/the_expansion_o.php
Technology
http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/10/the_expansion_o.php
US Population Graph
World Population Graph
Gini Coefficient
/
http://www.visualeconomics.com/income-distribution-by-country
Gini Coefficient
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient
Consequences of Wealth Disparity
Income Inequality and Homicides (r = 0.47, p = 0.02)
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Income Alternative Poverty Estimates in the United States: 2003, Report P60, n. 227, Tables B-1 and B-3, pp. 18, 20.
Consequences of Wealth Disparity
Income Inequality and Social Mobility (r = 0.93, p < 0.01)
http://www.globalissues.org/article/4/poverty-around-the-world#WorldBanksPovertyEstimatesRevised
National Debt
Health Care
http://ucatlas.ucsc.edu/spend.php
Prison Population
Peak Oil in the US
240,000,000
14
220,000,000
12
200,000,000
10
180,000,000
8
160,000,000
6
140,000,000
4
120,000,000
2
100,000,000
0
80,000,000
U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Million Barrels Per Day )(L)
U.S. Consumption of Crude Oil (Million Barrels Per Day )(L)
US Population(R)
US Population
16
Mar-2023
260,000,000
Jul-2009
18
Oct-1995
280,000,000
Feb-1982
20
Jun-1968
300,000,000
Oct-1954
22
Jan-1941
320,000,000
May-1927
24
Sep-1913
Quantity (Million Barrels Per Day)
U.S. Crude Oil Daily Production and Consumption
and US Population
Peak Oil in the World
World Oil Production and Consumption
http://www.eia.doe.gov
90
85
Million Barrels of Oil per Day
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
Production
1990
1995
Consumption
2000
2005
2010
Oil Discoveries
Source: www.aspo-ireland.org
Source: www.aspo-ireland.org
http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php
Summary of Oil Production Status
• Of the 65 largest oil producing countries, 54 have
passed their peak
Country
United States
Peak Prod.
2008 Prod.
% Off Peak
Peak Year
11297
7337
-35%
1970
Venezuela
3754
2566
-32%
1970
Libya
3357
1846
-45%
1970
Kuwait
3339
2784
-17%
1972
Iran
6060
4325
-29%
1974
Indonesia
1685
1004
-41%
1977
Iraq
3489
2423
-31%
1979
United Kingdom
2909
1544
-47%
1999
Norway
3418
2455
-28%
2001
Mexico
3824
3157
-17%
2004
Russian Federation
11484
9886
-14%
Saudi Arabia
11114
10846
-2%
Nigeria
2580
2170
-16%
Canada
3320
3238
-2%
2007 / Growing
Algeria
2016
1993
-1%
2007 / Growing
China
3795
3795
-
Growing
United Arab Emirates
2980
2980
-
Growing
Brazil
1899
1899
-
Growing
Angola
1875
1875
-
Growing
Kazakhstan
1554
1554
-
Growing
Qatar
1378
1378
-
Growing
1987*
2005 / Growing
2005*
Non-Conventional Oil
http://thetyee.ca/News/2010/09/09/OilSandsWorld/
Tar Sands produce 82% more greenhouse gases than conventional oil
According to Cambridge Energy Research Associates, the tar sands
annually consumes 20 percent of Canada's natural gas demand.
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2010/08/30/MattSimmons/index.html
Driving Mileage
http://www.project.org/info.php?recordID=443
Natural Gas
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/27/61031/618
Coal
Appalachia Coal – Peak in 1940
http://steveaustinlex.wordpress.com/2010/01/27/you%E2%80%99ve-met-peak-oil-welcome-peak-coal/
World Peak Coal
Study Concludes “Peak Coal” Will Occur Close to 2011
2 August 2010
A multi-Hubbert analysis of coal production by Tadeusz Patzek at The University of
Texas at Austin and Gregory Croft at the University of California, Berkeley concludes
that the global peak of coal production from existing coalfields will occur close to the
year 2011.
After 2011, the production rates of coal and CO2 decline, reaching 1990 levels by the
year 2037, and reaching 50% of the peak value in the year 2047. It is unlikely that
future mines will reverse the trend predicted in this business-as-usual (BAU)
scenario, according to the study, which was published in the journal Energy.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/08/peakcoal-20100802.html
Electric Energy Production Distribution of Sources
http://www.iea.org/Textbase/stats/pdf_graphs/USELEC.pdf
EROEI
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3786
Can we Solve the Energy Problem with
Renewable Energy?
• In 1965, humanity produced 5 TeraWatts (1012 Watts) of
power.
• In 2005, we produced 15 TeraWatts.
All Energy information provided by Saul Griffith in a podcast from the Long
Now Foundation. Saul Griffith is an inventor and a 2007 MacArthur Fellow
http://www.longnow.org/projects/seminars/SALT.xml
Friday, January 16, 2009, 4:00:00 PM | podcast@longnow.org
(The Long Now Foundation)
Climate Change Recalculated
podcast-2009-01-16-griffith.mp3
http://fora.tv/2009/01/16/Saul_Griffith_Climate_Change_Recalculated
A Potential Energy Portfolio
• Currently Available
• 3 TW from Fossil Fuels (to limit greenhouse gases)
• 1 TW from Nuclear
• 0.5 TW from Hydro
• Need 11.5 more TW
A Potential Energy Portfolio
• Build over the next 25 years
• 2 TW photovoltaic
• 2 TW Solar Thermal
• 2 TW Wind
• 2 TW Geothermal
• 3 TW Nuclear
• 0.5 Biofuels (so we can fly jets)
What is Needed to Achieve This?
• Produce 100 square meters of photovoltaic cells every
second for 25 years
• Install 50 square meters of mirrors for solar thermal
every second for 25 years
• Build one 3-megawatt wind turbine (100 meter diameter)
every 5 minutes for next 25 years
What is Needed to Achieve This?
• Build a 3 gigawatt nuclear plant every week for the next
25 years (US has 8-10 planned for next decade).
• Bring a 300 MW steam turbine on line (for geothermal)
every day for the next 25 years.
• For biofuels, fill an Olympic-sized swimming pool with
genetically engineered algae every second for the next
25 years. This would be approximately like covering
Wyoming with the algae.
An Effort Equivalent to Retooling for WWII
• GM and Ford combined could make 1 wind turbine every
5 minutes
• Nokia, Intel, AMD, Apple could produce the necessary
photovoltaic cells
• Coke and Pepsi in 10 years could make enough solar
thermal mirrors using the aluminum that would be used
for cans to produce 2 TW of power.
• Necessary land area for all of this would be the 7th
largest country in the world (between Australia and
India).
Nuclear Fusion
• Combining nuclei of smaller atoms to make larger atoms,
thereby releasing energy
• This is what happens with stars
• No radioactive or carbon waste
• Potentially 20 or more years from being viable
Nuclear Fusion
The NIF & Photon Science Principal Directorate is one of five
directorates at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in
Livermore, California. The directorate operates the National Ignition Facility
(NIF), the world´s largest and highest–energy laser, which has the goal of
achieving nuclear fusion and energy gain in the laboratory for the first time
– in essence, creating a miniature star on Earth.
A technician inspects a final optics assembly on the NIF target chamber.
Water Resources
http://webworld.unesco.org/water/ihp/db/shiklomanov/part'3/HTML/Fi_21.html
2010
1950
Thousand Cubic Meters per year per capita
Fig. 28. Water availability by natural-economic regions of the world: 1950 - 2025.
Climate Change
http://www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/graphs-diagrams-of-global-warming-and-climate.html
Ocean Acidification
Figure 1: Changes in Sea-Surface pH from Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (pre-industrial to 1990s)
Note: Lower pH indicates greater acidity (see Box 1: Understanding the pH Scale)
Source: Pacific Science Association, 2007
http://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/245
Plastic Pollution
September 4, 2009--Tangled with
plastic, rope, and various aquatic
animals, a "ghost net" drifts in August
2009 in the Eastern Pacific Garbage
Patch, a loose, free-floating "dump"
twice the size of Texas.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/09/photogalleries/pacific-garbage-patch-pictures/index.html
Marine Fisheries
Choosing A Goal For Humanity
• Will humanity exist in 1 million years?
• If so, how will we be different?
• If not, is there anything we can change so we will
survive?
• For a universe that is billions of years old, billions of
light years in diameter and that contains billions of
galaxies with billions of planets and potentially billions
of species, does it really matter if humans become
extinct?
We are the Keystone Generation
Sample Production Curve for any Non-renewable Resource
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
2120
We are the Keystone Generation
Sample Production Curve for any
Non-renewable Resource On a 4000 year time line
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Choosing a Goal for Humanity
• Without goals, people tend to roam aimlessly or make
short sighted decisions
• Group goals benefit from input from all group members
• The Keystone Generation should begin a global
grassroots discussion of what we think our descendants
would appreciate in the future.
How to Achieve the Goal
• Education
• Solution to energy problem
• Creation of a model of living that could be used by all
humans for 1 million years
• Sustainable world view
• Sustainable technology
• Development of new language
Education
• Every college graduate should have an understanding of
these issues, presented through various disciplines.
• Education should include knowledge from pre-industrial
cultures such as finding food and understanding the sky.
• Systems Thinking
Systems Thinking
• “A system is an interconnected set of elements that is
coherently organized in a way that achieves something.”
Donella Meadows, Thinking in Systems, A primer
• Examples of systems
• Colleges
• Organisms
• Biosphere
Systems Thinking
• All choices a person makes should be viewed in context
of the impact on
• The individual
• Family/friends
• Strangers
• Non-human life
• Resources
Systems Thinking Example – Should I buy a Cell
Phone?
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Impact on me as an individual:
I will be able to talk with my family and friends in a more
convenient way
I will have an additional monthly expense. This requires more
money, perhaps more hours of working.
I may become addicted to texting and constantly interrupt
conversations with the person I am with to text with someone
I’m not with.
I may have health problems (cancer, brain tumor) from the
microwave radiation that cell phones produce.
Systems Thinking Example – Should I buy a Cell
Phone?
•
Impact on family and friends
•
It may be easier to stay in touch without seeing
each other.
•
We may get less exercise because we call instead
of walk to visit each other.
•
Communication usually includes facial expressions,
which is missing when we use a phone or text.
Systems Thinking Example – Should I buy a Cell
Phone?
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Impact on all strangers
I may be contributing to corporate wealth and employment for
people.
My choice of cell phones can help make one company survive
and another fail.
I can report emergencies quicker, thereby helping people.
Manufacturing and transportation contributes to climate
change.
I may cause an accident and hurt someone because of using
a cell phone while driving (in spite of current law).
Systems Thinking Example – Should I buy a Cell
Phone?
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•
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Impact on non-human life
We replace trees or vegetation with cell phone
towers so I have better service.
All the radiation from cell towers may have an effect
on birds, bees or other animals, but we aren’t sure.
Toxic chemicals from cell phones may poison the
land, water and other life.
Mining operations destroy ecosystems.
Systems Thinking Example – Should I buy a Cell
Phone?
•
Impact on resources
•
Cell phones are designed to last a year or two.
Over 400,000 are retired every day in the US. They
use petroleum and metals, both of which are not
renewable. Small as each individual impact is, if
resources are to last 1 million years, the small
impacts add up.
Educating Students in the Classroom
• Steilacoom Valley – A way to make big numbers more
manageable
• Apply the concepts to the real world
• Include issues as part of exam or essay questions
Solve Energy Problem
• Knowledge about energy needs to be increased.
• We need a Manhattan type project for creating fusion
and expanding other renewable energy production.
Create a Model For Living That Could Last 1
Million Years
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Adopt a sustainable world view
Embrace a way of living in the short term that can
extend our non-renewable resources
Cultural shift toward small/childless families
worldwide with the goal of reducing the world
population
Adopt sustainable technology
Smaller homes
Less stuff
100% of energy from renewable sources
Create a Model For Living That Could Last 1
Million years
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What would living with a sustainable world view be
like?
How much stuff would we need?
What would we do for work if we weren’t simply a
consumer society?
What would we do with our time?
How much government would we really need?
How many problems would simply disappear if
there was greater income equity?
How much less stress could there be?
Develop New Language
• How does the language and things people discuss differ
in places that live sustainably compared to those that
don’t?
• Are we missing words in our language that would
change the way we live? (Do words guide actions or do
actions lead to words?)
Develop New Language
• Example 1. a word or expression that indicates when a
person has attained a sufficient state in life rather than
being in either a deficient or surplus state, with the latter
arising from the desire to always have more
• Example 2. a word that merges individual and
community
The Ultimate Question
• Is our current way of living so sacred that we will not
voluntarily exchange it for a lower impact lifestyle?
The Ultimate Challenges
• Can we find a combination of culture and technology that
will lead to a more just and sustainable world?
• Can we extend our non-renewable energy resources
until they can be replaced with nuclear fusion and other
clean and renewable energy technology?
• Can we decrease the population?
Summary
• Our development as a species in the last 200 years has
been fueled by an unprecedented transfer of matter from
resource to sink, thereby denying our descendants these
resources.
• I believe we have an obligation to make use of the
knowledge we have gained because of this transfer to
transition to a sustainable way of living, whatever form
that takes.
Summary
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There is a need for a global, grassroots discussion that can
address these questions in a thoughtful way:
What things in our modern world can we live without?
What things would we want all our descendants to be able to
have?
How can we transition from a consumer society to a different
type of society?
How can we reduce the size of the world population in a sane
and just way?
How do our answers change if we have only 10 years to make
the changes voluntarily?
How can we cope with the changes that will come if we ignore
the problems?
Summary
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Finally, I believe this discussion needs to start
immediately at the college level, and then spread into
K-12.
Educators must challenge students to understand the
magnitude of the situation and envision other ways of
living. This could be lead by, but not limited to,
instructors of anthropology and philosophy.
The Keystone Generation must become aware of the
critical role they play in all of human history.
Acknowledgements
• I would like to thank Jo Anne Geron for asking me to
give this lecture. It gave me the opportunity to organize
my thoughts in a meaningful way so that I could envision
a strategy for improving life on this planet.