Centre Report Centre for Transport Studies Report to Evaluation Team 2010-05-07 updated 2010-05-10 2 0. Summary The Centre for Transport Studies is a collaboration between a number of partners, summarised in the table below. Partner Type Research-oriented consultancy University Contribution to CTS: role, particular competence, research areas Transport modelling, discrete choice econometrics, valuation of non-market goods, regional economics Transport economics, tendering and contracts, pricing of transport and infrastructure, valuation Applied modelling and policy analysis Regional economics Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) University Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI) WSP Analysis & Strategy Jönköping International Business School Transport Analysis (formerly SIKA) Transport Administration (formerly Road and Rail Administrations) National Public Transport Agency VINNOVA National research institute Public authority Statistics and policy analysis Public authority Funder Public authority Funder (conditional) Research agency Funder The core of CTS research is transport modelling and transport economics, with sub-topics such as person and freight demand modelling, traffic simulation, appraisal, valuation of non-market goods and transport pricing. The raison d’être of CTS is to connect four strong research units to each other, and to strengthen links to practitioners. The creation of CTS has rapidly created such connections, and we expect these to be even stronger when we move into a dedicated CTS building in March 2011. We are convinced that these links create more than just “dissemination”: we believe that the CTS collaborations between practitioners, researchers and consultants from various backgrounds and environments is the most efficient method to communicate results out of academia and generate new, fruitful research questions into academia. CTS research aims for the highest scientific quality, and CTS researchers have made world-leading contributions in several fields, such as discrete choice econometrics, valuation of time and variability, route choice modelling and congestion charging analysis, to name a few. CTS has strong connections to applied policy-making and analysis, and is increasingly becoming the national “point of contact” in issues regarding transport modelling and appraisal. CTS researchers are frequently engaged as advisors and collaborators in various contexts, have had substantial influence on several important policy issues, chaired the Appraisal Committee for the National Investment Plan, developed the national freight and person transport models, worked with the design and evaluation of the Stockholm and Gothenburg congestion charges – the list could be made much longer. We are convinced that this cross-fertilisation between high-quality basic research, independent policy analysis and applied collaborations will continue to strengthen our common environment. To use our somewhat cocky internal motto, this will continue to create research that is brilliant, relevant and visible. 3 1. Long-term Vision, Mission and Strategy Already after two and one-half years of existence, CTS has contributed strongly to its vision – an improved understanding of the transport system, its users and the interaction between the transport system and societal development. The research is in line with the mission, i.e. of high quality and applicable for practitioners. Thus, the research has already been put into practical use in the shaping of the transport system. A perspective on the goals and strategies for CTS are shown in the table on next page. Some of the achievements with respect to the goals are: Internationally recognised research environment. The Scientific Advisory Board concludes that research projects hold an extremely high quality (see chapter 3). This is shown in a strong publication record and presence at scientific conferences – senior researchers publish more than three papers1 per person and year on average (see chapter 5). CTS has been able to attract leading researchers, both as permanent employees and as guest researchers. Many of the researchers are also invited to scientific committees etc. Further, a unique quality of the research at CTS is its applicability, achieved through the strong links between practitioners and researchers. Meeting place for researchers and practitioners. The strong links are achieved through arranging seminars and conferences, recruitments, cooperation in projects and an active dialogue. This has yielded research that is perceived as relevant, which in turn already has made CTS a major Swedish node for practitioners seeking research results. CTS researchers are frequently engaged as lecturers and advisors by various stakeholders, and also get extensive exposure in media. Increase the quality of decision support. CTS research has been put into practical use in Swedish transport policy formulation both through traditional research projects and counselling activities. This is shown through engagements by governmental commissions, Parliament hearings and joint work groups with public authorities. Raise the long term competence level. CTS meets this goal both by the dissemination activities described above that are aimed at practitioners and by examination of high quality PhD-students, who will often themselves become practitioners later on. A sign that this works well is that the Scientific Advisory Board considered our PhD students and junior researchers “extremely good”. Increase and strengthen the financial base. The share of external funding have increased over time since CTS has been highly successful in attracting external funding. One reason is that large project applications have been made and granted. However, the future of the base funding is somewhat uncertain today since all the funding public authorities are reorganizing. In a ten year perspective the ambition of CTS is to continue to work towards these goals. In particular, the following strategies will be in focus (the strategies are elaborated in chapter 8): 1. Strengthened role in the international research arena 2. Intensified knowledge dissemination 3. Closer internal cooperation 4. Exploration of new research areas 5. Improved career opportunities 6. Increased financial base 1 Counting all types of publications; some “double-counting” of papers may occur. Activity Goals Value added by existence of CTS Research Internationally recognised research environment Access to other research networks Higher critical mass - other researhers work with similar topics Advice and cooperation in applied policy Education of PhDs, students and practitioners Administration Meeting place for researchers and practitioners Strong publication record More joint projects between partners Cross-fertilisation Contact with practitioners yield new research questions Attracts leading/promising researchers Dedication to communication Single point of contact for practitioners Connecting researchers with practitioners Practitioners from the nonacademic partners increase relevance of research Increase the quality of decision support Independent advice Large pool of people: many viewpoints Cooperation with leading international research environments Strong connection to applied policy making and appraisal Major node for practitioners seeking research results More external seminars and conferences Appreciated external seminars More persons at CTS involved More internal cooperation and dissemination Well-functioning internal seminar series Frequently engaged for presentations by important stakeholders Unique ability to get research results out and research questions in Extensive exposure in media Several cooperation projects with governmental commissions and others Frequently engaged as policy advisors More persons at CTS involved Increase awareness of CTS willingness to help Large pool of people: handle complex tasks Increasingly engaged at Parliament hearings More involvment in policy at EU-level Single point of contact for practitioners Research results faster into practical use Participation in several joint work groups with public authorities Substantial influence over several policy decisions Raise the long term competence level Larger pool of teachers Better connection between education and practice Less vulnerability with more supervisors Increase and strengthen the financial base Potential for improvements Some researchers should publish more Strong presence at conferences papers Many members of scientific committees, Publish more of what is already being editorial boards etc. done Contact with practitioners keeps research relevant Researchers outside traditional academia (VTI+WSP) acess research Dissemination of knowledge Strengths and achievements Access to other networks Financial stability => possible to take risks Able to take on large research grants/projects Larger pool of leading research competences => can take on broad/large projects Examination of high quality PhD-students More new recruited PhD-students Growing and more attractive masters program Education of practitioners Highly successful in attracting external funding Large project applications made and granted Improved budget steering and economic forecasts Increased focus by management on recruitment More EU-funded projects 2. Organisation and Management of the Centre Description of Partners There are five partners of CTS that carry out research (and also act as financiers) and an additional two partners that act solely as financiers (the Swedish Transport Administration and the National Public Transport Agency). Here, only those practicing research will be discussed. Since CTS started in 2008, over 70 persons have worked in CTS projects. More than 50 belong to what can be considered the core of CTS. Most of these are found at two divisions at KTH (all of Transport and Location Analysis (TLA) together with parts of Transport and Logistics (TOL)) and one division at VTI (Transport Economics (TEK)). Further, parts of WSP Analysis and Strategy, Jönköping International Business School and the Transport Analysis authority (formerly SIKA) constitute part of the core. The picture below shows the different CTS partners: the green (inner) area depicts the projects that are funded directly by CTS while the red (outer) area depicts the “CTS environment”. The use of both these definitions is the result of a conscious strategy, since the CTS funded projects will gain by being able to draw on experiences and competences within the broader CTS research environment. A single researcher or research project is often funded partly by CTS and partly by other sources making CTS projects an integrated part of a larger environment. CTS Research Environment KTH/TOL (CTR and HRE) KTH/TLA VTI/TEK CTS project finance and board responsibility CTS office JIBS WSP Transport Analysis Swedish Transport Administration National Public Transport Agency A more extensive description of the partners is given in chapter 4. Role of Directors and Management The Board of Directors is appointed by the partners, and is responsible for strategic issues and major economic decisions. Some of the responsibilities are: To decide upon the strategic development of the Centre To promote cooperation between public society and industry with regard to results of the research To monitor the economic situation of the Centre, prepare a budget and ensure that the Centre’s economic position can be reassuringly controlled To facilitate idea generation from the sector, decide on large projects, implementation and review of the research activity within the framework of the business plan. The Centre Director leads the centre activities both scientifically and operationally, and is the rapporteur at the Board of Directors. The Director is responsible for the day-to-day management of the Centre. The Director shall ensure that a well-functioning organization is created. The Management Group consists of the Director and one representative each from KTH and VTI as well as adjunct members (currently the deputy Director, the administrator and one representative from 6 JIBS). The Management Group discusses matters of importance for the day-to-day operation and organization of the Centre. This includes preparing project proposals to the Board, design communication activities, ensure project control and decide upon minor projects (or more exactly advice the director). Scientific leadership is carried out along two parallel processes. First, all research proposals are discussed in the Management Group, often resulting in revisions or extensions of the original proposals. In particular, connections to other on-going projects are pointed out and potential for synergies are explored. Second, appointed research coordinators arrange regular focus area discussions where on-going research and ideas for future research are discussed. The International Scientific Advisory Board currently consists of Michel Bierlaire (EPFL, Transport Laboratory, Lausanne), Stef Proost, (Cat. University, Leuwen) and Mark Wardman (ITS, Leeds). The Scientific Advisory Board discusses the relevance of the research topics of the Centre and gives advice on specific projects. It further gives advice on how the Centre can best develop its activities. Project generation process A project idea can arise on the initiative of a researcher, a research coordinator, the Management Group or the Board of Directors. There are no special application deadlines set, which means that ideas can be presented at any time. From an accepted project idea, the researcher/project manager develops a project proposal in cooperation with the research coordinator or the Management Group. If necessary, a pilot study is also conducted along with the preparation of a project plan in accordance with a specific model. The project plan shall also contain a quality plan and a plan for knowledge dissemination, times and dates for reviews, and a budget with a plan for payment of funds from CTS. Project plans for larger projects are referred to the Board which decides whether the projects should go ahead. The director can decide on smaller projects (up to SEK 400 000). Decisions on projects are communicated to the project manager and (on approval) KTH’s finance administrator via a letter confirming a decision. The project is carried out in cooperation with the research coordinator and/or a controller. Quality assurance is carried out in accordance with the quality plan. The project is completed with a project report which is submitted to the director (for larger projects to the Board), who in turn makes decisions on activities for knowledge dissemination within the framework of CTS. Stimulation of innovation processes One of the basic functions of CTS is to link high quality research to applied transport planning and policy development. CTS will thus facilitate an innovative policy development process including model and method development. The infrastructure sector is, for basic economic reasons, in many situations under the control of public authorities. The most important innovation process for CTS is to improve the decision making capability of this sector. The steps taken to stimulate and promote innovation process are described in the implementation strategies under goal 2 (meeting place) and goal 3 (increasing quality) – see appendix 2, criteria for CTS. An example can illustrate the process. At CTS at least 15 projects deal with road user charges. Through this extensive research of both theoretical and practical issues CTS has built up a unique competence in the area. This was asked for by the regional and national authorities when innovative solutions were sought for a system with congestion charges in Gothenburg. Role of the Centre The role of the Centre is described in chapter 4. Communication Internal and external communication activities are carried out both through seminar series and on an ad-hoc basis. Some of the organized activities are: 7 Academic seminars at KTH – dissertations where doctoral and licentiate theses are presented etc. CTS mini-conferences – thematic conferences with a number of presentations, aimed at practitioners, decision makers and researchers. VTI seminars – peer review of internal or external CTS projects. Held on Wednesday afternoons. CTS lunch seminars – researchers present and receive feed-back on an ongoing project from other researchers at CTS. Held every Tuesday lunch. Coffee break information – researchers get together and the Centre Director briefly informs on current issues once a week. Home page – there is a home page for CTS where seminars are announced, projects described and reported, collaborators presented, etc. Working paper series – currently VTI Stockholm publish their work in a working paper series. Plans are under way to integrate other parts of CTS in the series. Equal opportunity The share of men and women differs between the member organizations of CTS, e.g. among researchers at KTH men outnumber women, whereas at WSP Analysis and Strategy it is the other way around. Generally speaking, the share of women has gradually increased over time even at the senior/management level, and there is no indication that the career opportunities today differ. However, the Board of Directors, the Management Group and the International Scientific Advisory Board are all still dominated by men. An opportunity for people from outside Sweden is supported at CTS, through the fact that lectures, seminars, etc. are normally held in English. Thus at CTS, people from abroad are employed at all academic levels (professors, post-docs and PhD students). Comments The project idea generation process works well, but would benefit from being a bit more systematic and strategic. We strive to increase the share of multi-partner projects – currently, this is a little less than half of the projects, excluding one-person projects. The appointment of research coordinators was meant to solve this, but the system still does not work as well as hoped and this will be evaluated during 2010. A more active involvement from the Swedish Transport Administration and other stakeholders would also help. We will therefore strengthen the mini-conferences to ensure participation from a wider audience at these organisations. The carrying out of projects works well, but it would benefit from tighter internal cooperation and increased external dissemination during the project phase. Even if we have come a long way towards establishing a common culture and creating synergies, the role and nature of the centre is still not clear to all parties involved. Work therefore has to be done to strengthen the identity of the centre in a way that also generates benefit to the ingoing partner organisations. This includes common work routines, seminar and publication series, forms for internal and external communication as well as work climate. 8 3. Research Area, Competence Profile and Critical Size Core competence, personnel and particular strengths The two core competences of CTS are transport modelling and transport economics, both broadly interpreted. Most of the centre’s research is in some sense related to appraisal of transport investments and policy, for which both of our core competences are necessary. To structure our research activities, we have divided them into six focus areas. These overlap to a large extent: the aim is not to define “borders” between research areas, but rather to define “focal points” that facilitate the presentation of what we do and help researchers with mutual interests to develop collaborations. The four focus areas (besides the two core areas) are not meant to be permanent: rather, they are focal points where the centre focuses its research efforts for period of time. After that period, some or all of these focus areas may be replaced by some other focus, around which the centre can join its research efforts. The table below gives a condensed overview of the focus areas and their size in terms of funding, number of active researchers and publication activity. We have also indicated approximate non-CTS funding within VTI-TEK and KTH-TLA for the various focus areas. Focus area Sample of active research topics No. of active2 researchers/PhD students 2008-2010 (overlap: one person may be active in several fields) Transport modelling Demand modelling, freight modelling, Traffic simulation, activity-based modelling, Vehicle fleet modelling, travel time variability Valuation of time, life, reliability, optimal pricing of transport and infrastructure, neuroeconomics, network vulnerability Productivity and location effects of accessibility, agglomeration and production effects in CBA Tendering effects on productivity, deregulation of the railway system, more efficient insurances Acceptability, Appraisal, equity, Transferability, design & modelling Carbon pricing, Impact of innovations, optimal GHG abatement policy Changes in travel patterns over time, large-scale traffic information & analysis, Evaluation of innovative transport solutions 18 res., 6 PhD stud. Transport economics and appraisal Transport and regional economics Procurement and contracts Road pricing GHG abatement Other Total CTS funding 20082010 (MSEK) 18,6 Other funding (approx ) within TLA/VTI 20082010 28 No. of publications3 20082009; only related to CTS-funded research (each paper assigned to one field only) 18 32 res., 5 PhD stud. 20,7 29 35 9 res., 3 PhD stud. 5,5 20 2 5 res., 2 PhD stud. 1,6 10 6 17 res., 1 PhD stud. 8,0 5 23 11 res., 2 PhD stud. 6,5 4 13 16 res., 7 PhD stud. 9,6 10 10 63 res., 19 PhD stud. 70,3 90 107 For the purposes of the table, we have defined “active researcher” as “has carried out research in this field during the period 2008-2010”. The number of researchers working most of their time in CTS-funded projects is thus significantly smaller. 3 All types of papers included, not just journal papers. The figures do not include 2010 papers. Double-counting may occur to some extent, for example if a paper is first presented as a conference paper and then accepted to a journal in revised form. 2 9 Seen in a global perspective, the CTS environment has a number of particular strengths: - applied large-scale transport modelling (passenger and freight) - valuation of non-market goods, especially in the context of transport appraisal (value of time, safety and noise are some active areas) - discrete choice econometrics - congestion charges (design, modelling, appraisal) - railway infrastructure (pricing and prioritization) - strong connection to applied transport policy and appraisal - strong connection to applied model development and usage In these respects, we believe that the CTS environment belongs to the top tier of research environments in the world. Our research strategy builds upon these strengths in order to make as substantial contributions as possible – both in terms of research and in terms of applied transport policy. Obviously, the strengths are interconnected: for example, appraisal methodology builds upon excellence in transport modelling and valuation, and the strong connection to applied appraisal generates new insights and research questions. There are similar interconnections between the other strengths. We have, on purpose, not defined “sustainable transport” (for example) as a separate focus area. All CTS research should include sustainability, equity/fairness and efficiency perspectives (wherever applicable). Description of facilities Most of the CTS research is carried out without any dedicated laboratories or field sites. One exception is the recently established collaboration with IBM, where IBM provides computers and dedicated software for large-scale database management. This is used for collecting traffic data from many sources – traffic measurements, taxi GPS sensors etc. The data is then used for several types of analyses: real-time analysis and short-term forecasting, information services, model validation etc. Personnel and facilities available through collaborations The CTS partners, along with their roles and strengths, are described in chapter 4. Relation to internationally leading groups The CTS environment was evaluated in the context of the KTH Research Assessment Exercise in 2008, when several groups of renowned scientific experts evaluated the quality of all KTH research units in a number of aspects. When describing CTS, their report stated that it was an “extremely capable organizational structure...well equipped to study all aspects of transportation planning and modelling, from traffic analysis at the micro level to forecasting and modelling trip generation and location demands.” Further, the report stated that: “The quality of applied research [in transport] was considered world-leading in parts ...and of an international high standard in the remainder… and the overall level of scholarship in both Economics and Transport was considered excellent.” The CTS scientific council met for the first time in the autumn of 2009. Their overall impression was summarised as “Research projects hold an extremely high quality; Research questions are relevant, with good links to potential users; The PhD students were extremely good; the junior researchers were also extremely good; Amazing number of projects; Not too diverse, good cohesion topic-wise; Good to have such a critical mass of economics and econometrics; Possibly the strongest collection of transport economists and transport modellers in Europe, or perhaps even in the world.” We have already listed above CTS’s particular strengths in our own view, seen in a global perspective. There are other more or less similar groups in the world – the EPFL Transport Laboratory, ITS Leeds, ITLS Sydney, the transport groups at UC Berkeley and MIT, to name a few – and we feel that CTS would in most respects be comparable to these groups in terms of quality and applicability of our 10 research, and (perhaps in particular) by the value we are adding by connecting practitioners and researchers. Collaboration with external groups On an institutional level, we have close connections with ITS Leeds and EPFL Lausanne. A special networking program has recently started with ITS Leeds: in June, a number of researchers on the postdoc level from CTS will visit ITS to try to jumpstart collaborative projects. This will be followed by a response visit by ITS researchers to CTS. We plan a similar networking program with EPFL Lausanne, and possibly with other (primarily European) environments. Many CTS researchers have extensive individual international networks. There is room for improvement, however, as to how CTS is used as a vehicle for extending these networks. A good example is the recently granted SURPRICE project, where CTS will coordinate a 1 M€ research project on urban road pricing, involving collaborators in five European countries. This consortium was formed by using CTS as a “hub”, connecting several existing research networks to each other, thereby extending individual researchers’ networks considerably. There are some other similar examples, but we feel that there is yet potential for more such joint projects. Value added by being a Centre The value added of CTS, compared to the sum of individual partners, has been described in the table in Chapter 1. Critical size CTS is today well above a reasonable “critical size” in all our focus areas. As with all centres, the challenge is to create synergies, collaborations and knowledge transfers out of these “critical masses”. We feel that we are well underway in most respects, through our joint seminars, joint projects etc. – but this can certainly be improved. Currently, a little more than a third of CTS projects are joint projects between several partners – almost a half if one-person projects are excluded. Considering that most CTS projects are small and involve only a few researchers (often 1-3 researchers), this is not too bad considering our short history, but it can definitely be improved. 11 4. Centre Partners Description of partners The CTS office is an organisational unit at KTH, consisting of six people (including the CTS director) and a part-time administrator. Besides working in research projects, they have a special responsibility for fostering CTS activities, collaborations and identity. All of them have experience from both academic research and practical policy-making and analysis, making them able to see potential for connections and collaborations between researchers and practitioners. Two divisions at KTH belong to CTS – Transport and Location Analysis (TLA) and Transport and Logistic (ToL). Research is focused on transport systems analysis with policy implications for a sustainable transport system. A common characteristic is that advanced tools of analysis, often in form of quantitative models, are developed and applied to provide best possible support for critical decisions for industry and society. Current research and teaching activities include traffic and transport engineering, intelligent transport systems, transport policy evaluation, transport economics, sustainable transport and urban systems, regional development and risk and vulnerability of infrastructure systems. There are also researchers with strong topical connections to CTS at the Highway and Railway Engineering (HRE) division at KTH. The three divisions TLA, ToL and HRE will soon form the Department for Transport Sciences, which will be headed by a researcher from the CTS Office, thereby integrating KTH/CTS transport research even further. Linked to the new department will also be the Centre for Traffic Research (CTR), with expertise in traffic and transit simulation, driver behaviour, web-based data collection, traffic models with emissions, dynamic traffic assignment and Personal Rapid Transit (PRT). The new department will deal with a wide range of transport problems. Its researchers have made significant contributions in policy evaluation, land use modelling, demand modelling, ITS, simulation, traffic estimation and prediction, dynamic traffic management, validation and calibration of traffic models, driver behaviour, public transport, and rail traffic. The number of KTH employees who spend most of their time on CTS-related projects is approximately six at the CTS office, 15 at TLA, 10 at ToL and five at CTR. Besides what is mentioned above, CTS also collaborates with several other organizational units within KTH. Transport is identified as one of five strategic areas of KTH, and the KTH Transport Platform has been established to coordinate all transport-related activities. KTH, in partnership with Linköping University (LiU) and VTI, also form the TRENoP program (Transport Research Environment with Novel Perspectives) program, with significant funding directly from the government. A central objective of TRENoP is to support faculty renewal and development through replacement and new tenure track positions in strategic and emerging research areas. The program aims at strengthening the existing strong research and helping promote CTS and the Centre for ECO2 Vehicle Design becoming European Centres. The Railway Group at KTH is a joint centre between KTH and Sweden’s rail vehicle industry and the Swedish Transport Administration. The group is multidisciplinary, dealing with infrastructure and transportation topics, market analysis, vehicle design, vehicle-track interaction, noise and propulsion. VTI, the Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, is an internationally established research institute with about 190 employees. VTI carries out applied research and development in relation to all modes of transportation. VTI is a world leader in several areas, for instance in simulator technology. The Department of Transport Economics (TEK) is a part of CTS, with a research focus on linking advanced research with applied policy development support. Areas of research include valuation of non-market goods, pricing and regulation of the sector, appraisal and freight demand modelling as well as financing and organisational issues. There are also other organizational units at VTI collaborating with CTS. VTI Traffic and Road Users conducts research in the area of traffic safety, environment, planning policy/social and behaviour science and human machine interactions. VTI Infrastructure is the department focused on highway and railway engineering and infrastructure maintenance. CTS staff from VTI/TEK work in projects at these groups and their support is used in 12 CTS projects. The number of employees working most of their time with CTS-related projects is approximately 20. WSP Analysis and Strategy is a business unit within the consultancy firm WSP that supplies qualified analysis, investigations and data for decision-making, with focus on social change and transport. There is a composition of expertise in areas such as demography, finance, real estate, transport, environment and communication. There are close links with the research society. There are a significant number of employees with Licentiate and PhD degrees. Clients consist of organizations in the public sector and the private industry. Out of approximately 110 employees, roughly 15 work on CTS projects from time to time. The economics research at Jönköping International Business School is mainly concentrated on various aspects of industrial economics, with an emphasis on decision making, competitiveness and specialization, inter-regional and trans-national trade as well as multisectoral interaction and change. Two-to-three employees work from time to time on CTS projects. The authority Transport Analysis has three main areas of responsibility in the transport and communications sector; to carry out studies for the Government, to develop forecasts and planning methods and to be the responsible authority for official statistics. The agency was established in 2010 and has taken over most of the responsibilities from the former agency SIKA. The Division for Analysis and Review is located to Stockholm and works with similar topics as the rest of CTS, namely review of decision bases within transport policy, and ex-ante assessments of the effects of transport policy measures. The division will have approximately 10 employees. Generally speaking, the interaction between different partners is bigger the closer the facilities are to each other. Thus, KTH and VTI in Stockholm are gradually planning projects more and more closely, especially after the relocation of the CTS office and TLA to a location closer to VTI. Between the divisions and centres of KTH proper, there is some common project planning and staffing decisions, etc., both formally organized and on an ad-hoc basis. The planned relocation in March 2011 of all the KTH units related to CTS and of VTI Stockholm will potentially strengthen this interaction even further. The interaction between WSP and KTH, as well as between WSP and VTI, mainly takes place through staffing of common projects, but also through meetings within focus areas. The interaction between Jönköping International Business School and Transport Analysis respectively and the rest of CTS is still rather limited. This is largely due to the geographic distance, thus the recent relocation of part of Transport Analysis to Stockholm gives good opportunities for strengthened cooperation. Strategy for innovation In the transport sector, the process of getting from innovation to implementation can be separated into four steps: Innovation Impact assessment Appraisal Implementation Path Innovations in the CTS’ research areas are seldom “hardware”, but rather innovative concepts within transport policy, regulation or institutions – some examples are new allocation mechanisms for scarce rail capacity, design of regulatory instruments for carbon reduction, or new procurement strategies for public transport. Unfortunately, it has seldom been the tradition in the field to view such suggestions as true “innovations”, on par with any technical invention. This is definitely an area where we, and most researchers in our field, could improve: we should take some of our focus from evaluating suggested policy measures or investments to inventing and designing policy measures and investments. This is more about a change in state-of-mind than a change in actual research issues and methodology. 13 Impact assessment and appraisal are the two strong core competences of CTS. Most of our research is, directly or indirectly, centred around evaluating suggested policy measures, regulations and investments. Analysing and designing implementation paths is a growing research field. A classical example is research on acceptability of congestion pricing. Another example is creating a stable market for alternative-fuel vehicles, e.g. through tax incentives, regulatory, legislation or directives. This is also an area where more research efforts could be extremely fruitful. Measures for integration The research is done in participation with academic departments, consultancy firms, national and regional transport authorities and other stakeholders. Measures taken to achieve integration with such parties include seminars (see Chapter 2), reference groups, bi-lateral meetings and the forming of an internal culture that encourages holding presentations and giving consultations. Such consultations have several times led to the forming of joint projects with transport authorities or the government – some examples are the national investment planning, the congestion charges in Gothenburg and the plans for future development of the transport models. In order to foster a common CTS identity and culture, and allow CTS researchers to find synergies and mutual interests, several measures are taken. Some examples: TLA has moved closer to VTI on KTH campus. Next year all CTS partners at KTH campus will move into a new, dedicated house. We expect this to have a major positive impact in several ways. There are two regular, joint seminar series: internal lunch seminars on Tuesdays, where work-in-progress is presented and discussed, and external academic seminars on Wednesday afternoons, where new papers by CTS researchers or invited speakers are presented and peer-reviewed. Joint coffee breaks are held each Thursday morning. The CTS director presents recent news on various topics, and interesting discussions often follow. CTS arrange joint mini-conferences on various topics, so far ranging from high-speed trains over congestion charges to cost-benefit analysis methodology. These are intended for researchers and practitioners alike. The preparation of these is in itself a cohesive activity. The research coordinators regularly arrange discussions regarding each focus area, open to all interested CTS researchers. Here, current and future research is presented and discussed The CTS management group meets every second Monday. Joint workshops regarding CTS strategy, open to all CTS researchers, are held occasionally – sometimes half a day, sometimes two days over-night. Each year, an open seminar is held, where a number of researchers make ultra-short presentations of CTS research results from the past year – last year, 16 projects were presented in 2.5 hours – followed by a dinner party. These overviews have turned out to be very appreciated both internally and externally. 14 5. Research Program Overview of the research program Brilliant – relevant – visible. These somewhat cocky keywords summarizes what CTS research strives to be. With brilliant, we mean research of world-class quality, publishable in prestigious journals, representing important contributions of lasting value. To achieve this, it is important both to build on our current strengths (such as non-market valuation, discrete choice econometrics, applied large-scale modelling, congestion charging etc.) and to generate new, fertile research questions. A fruitful way to generate new research questions is to collaborate with practitioners; this has proven to stimulate the generation of new questions, and is an antidote to “ivory tower research”. It also keeps research relevant – our second keyword. “Relevant” is a memento to keep asking ourselves what the underlying “question” is – why we are undertaking a certain research project. Finally, research needs to be visible – it needs to be conveyed to the research community through publications and conferences and to the practitioner community by seminars, reports, collaborations and lectures. Collaborations with practitioners is arguably the best way to get new research results out and new research questions in. This is one of the raison d’êtres of CTS. By connecting practitioners – planners, politicians etc. – with researchers, research results are communicated “out” from academia, and new research questions are being channelled “into” academia. This is done by various means – miniconferences, seminars, lectures, collaborative projects. This may sound as if CTS is mostly focused on “applied” research. That would be a misconception. In fact, most CTS research is not connected to a specific application or policy question. But all of CTS research – even the most theoretical and esoteric – can be put into a context where the ultimate goal is to understand and improve the transport system and its impact on society as a whole, and we work hard to make sure that all researchers can see how their part of the jigsaw puzzle connects to the whole picture. In addition, we build an international research environment with a guest researcher program and formal collaborations with European research centres (ITS Leeds) and informal cooperations. We have appointed an international scientific committee. We have been successful in applying for European funding (SURPRICE for example) and encourage researchers to visit major conferences. In this way we strive for international influence into our process of defining new research questions. Through the large TRENoP research programme, CTS collaborates with other transport disciplines, such as vehicle technology and infrastructure engineering. We have deliberately kept research projects small, for three reasons: to be able to actively manage and control CTSs research focus, to make collaborations easier and to be able to take on short-notice research or application projects. As to potential for collaborations: if most researchers are tied up in large, long-term projects, they have little incentive or even possibility to establish new collaborations (perhaps in new fields). Hence, a considerable part of the CTS funding is used for rather small projects; as a rule, we stick to the principle “one paper – one project”. Brief description of the research projects The Guidelines asks for 50-word descriptions of each research project. Since there are more than 120 CTS projects, space does not allow this. Instead, we provide descriptions of the research plans for each focus area. Transport modelling Transport modelling includes “classic” research topics such as transport demand modelling, traffic simulation and freight modelling, but also newer, rapidly developing fields such as route choice modelling, vehicle fleet modelling and travel time variability modelling. One of the raison d’êtres for CTS is bringing together model users, model developers and researchers at the forefront of methodological development. As to model users, transport modelling is a part of several CTS projects analyzing proposed investments or policy measures. Even more important are the continuous contacts 15 with model users at various consultancies (especially WSP, which is part of CTS) and public authorities such as the Transport Administration (one of the funding partners of CTS). As to model development, researchers at CTS have been responsible for developing the national person transport model (SAMPERS) and national freight model (SAMGODS), and are still active in developing these models. In the future, we intend to take on an even larger responsibility for being the “national point of contact” for transport model development. We believe that this will benefit both research and application. CTS researchers have recently led three major, strategic projects on behalf of the Rail and Road Administrations, where the future development of the national person transport model(s) is outlined. We expect to continue this fruitful collaboration with the newly formed Transport Administration. As to research in transport modelling, we are actively pursuing research in mesoscopic simulation (both for road traffic and transit), route choice modelling, activity-based modelling (on the person side) and incorporating logistics into traditional “OD-based” freight modelling. While the main focus of transport modelling has often been on forecasting the effects of new investments, increasing attention is being given to modelling the effects of various policy measures and regulations, such as congestion charging, distance-based vehicle taxes, allowing longer lorries etc. More attention than before is also given to “slow modes” – walking and cycling. Currently, we are not pursuing much research regarding international air passenger transport (besides research on its climate effect and carbon pricing issues connected to this). We are considering taking up this issue, but have not decided anything yet. A new type of model that is growing in importance is vehicle fleet modelling. The climate issue has increased the efforts to reduce the (fossil) fuel consumption of vehicles through various policy measures. Modelling the effects of such measures requires a “vehicle demand” model, linked to a dynamic model of the vehicle fleet. Researchers at CTS have developed such a model, which has been used in a number of applications, and is currently undergoing further development. We expect this research area – both the model development and related applications – to grow in importance for several years ahead. Another type of models is methods to forecast effects of policy measures and investments on travel time variability – road, transit and long-distance rail. These models may be very different from each other depending on the mode and context. Researchers at CTS have developed models for the relationship between road congestion and travel time variability, and between rail infrastructure and primary and secondary (“knock-on”) delays. Especially the road model has been used in several applied studies by public authorities. This research field is only a few years old, but is rapidly developing, and we expect this to be a fruitful field for several years ahead. Transport economics and appraisal The focus area of transport economics and appraisal is diverse in many respects, but its centre of gravity lies in valuation of non-market goods (values of time, life, emissions, reliability etc.), efficient transport pricing and regulation (pricing external costs of transport etc.) and appraisal of investments and policy measures (in particular through cost-benefit analysis). A particular strength of CTS is valuation of non-market goods. This is connected to CTS’ excellence in discrete choice econometrics and stated preference methodology, but also to our strength in transport economic theory. Researchers at CTS have made world-leading contributions to the valuation of travel time and travel time variability, both with respect to theory and empirical estimation. Crucial parts of our strategy in this field is our responsibility for the national value of time survey (carried out by WSP and analysed by KTH researchers – a true CTS synergy), recruiting Mogens Fosgerau as a guest researcher and strengthening the links to the Transport Laboratory at EPFL and the Institute of Transport Studies at Leeds University. We also make contributions in the field of valuation of statistical life and noise valuation with hedonic techniques. Further, our valuation research encompasses methods and findings from behavioural economics and neuroeconomics: Questions such as hypothetical bias and decision processing naturally arise in this context, and they are also connected to transport demand modelling. Another central topic is stated preference 16 methodology. Over the years, CTS researchers have gained a considerable prowess and experience in this area, but so far, there have been only a few publications regarding “abstract” stated preference design and estimation issues. This is a planned new research area – or rather, it is an example of a research area where CTS researchers have carried out research and gained experience that has not been published except as working papers and research notes (as is noted elsewhere, one of our strategies to increase research productivity is to “publish more of what is already being done”). Regulation and pricing of transport is another key area for the transport economic research at CTS. In addition to the congestion pricing area (see below) we develop concepts for HGV pricing, including performance based pricing for gigaliners, and researchers at CTS are responsible for the main part of the current rail infrastructure pricing in Sweden. Lately, we have a new professor with the focus on maritime transport, and intermodal competition and pricing will be an important topic. Our research in appraisal methodology also concerns various methodological questions, such as constructing stylised “model timetables” for appraisal of rail investments. A particularly active field is analysing network vulnerability and travel time variability in road and rail networks. These questions often arise from our collaborations with practitioners – a perfect example of our inofficial motto “research results out – research questions in”. Historically, appraisal methodology has been mostly geared towards analysing proposed investments. As questions such as congestion and environmental impacts are getting more attention, more and more of transport policy issues will deal with policy measures and regulations – carbon-differentiated vehicle taxes, kilometre charging on heavy vehicles, congestion charging, caps on vehicle fuel consumption etc. Appraisal of such measures requires methodological development – both in terms of impact modelling, valuation and general appraisal methodology. CTS researchers have already been heavily involved in analysing several such policy measures and regulations, which in several cases has led to progress in appraisal methodology, and in other cases pointed out new questions for research. Just as with transport modeling, CTS is already the foremost research environment for transport appraisal methodology, in particular transport-related valuation of non-market goods and cost-benefit analysis. We intend to take on an even larger responsibility for being the “point of contact” for such issues. Interactions between transport system and regional economy There are several mutual interactions between the transport system and the regional economy, such as location/land use, employment, wage rates and productivity. Research regarding such interactions has a long history at several of the CTS partners, but most research groups have been rather small: in fact, bringing together the research in transport/economy interactions is arguably the best example of how CTS has contributed to establishing a “critical mass”. Researchers at WSP have developed the SAMLOK model, which models effects of accessibility on regional location and production. The SAMLOK model is linked to the SAMPERS transport model, developed by KTH researchers, and is in scope rather similar to the DYNLOK model, developed by researchers at Jönköping International Business School. At KTH, there is ongoing research on the link between accessibility and firm productivity, location within a region, and location/migration and wage changes. So far, the synergies between these research projects have been limited for various reasons, but our plan is to develop firmer ties between these researchers – a first step was taken in late 2009 when a larger collaborative project was established. Beside the research questions mentioned above, we also plan to further explore how conventional transport cost-benefit analyses relates to the results of regional economical modelling, by comparing SAMLOK (and possibly DYNLOK) results to conventional CBA results (based on SAMPERS). Procurement and contracts Procurement and the subsequent design of contracts with the winning bidder are pervasive in most modern countries, not least in Sweden’s huge public sector. CTS’ research related to competitive 17 tendering comprises several transport sector applications, in the first place tendering of public transport and of the outsourced maintenance and construction of roads and railways. Currently, a large database comprising most non-commercial rail and bus operations and most road and railway investment projects tendered during the recent 10 years or so is being compiled. Based on this material, a number of analyses of for instance the significance of the number of bidders for the contract price, the impact of alternative payment formats etc will be performed. In addition, contract costs and actual payments will be contracted. In this, it will be feasible to control for the types of activities that are performed and other exogenous characteristics of the projects. These analyses will contribute to an understanding of what explains differences between ex ante cost estimates and ex post realisations. This work is part of a long term research agenda which at the broadest level addresses transport sector governance issues. Previous projects have drawn funding from several sources. Currently, the Swedish Competition Agency is the main promoter of the data collection study. CTS funding will primarily facilitate a deeper theoretical analysis and academic publication of contracting issues. The data collection work is being done in close cooperation with Mats Bergman, professor at Södertörn University College. On a parallel track, one PhD student is presently finalising her dissertation, and a new is about to embark on his work, both of which are related to insurance contracting from a social perspective. One purpose is to see the consequences of new ways to base insurance premia on actual traffic behaviour, in particular on whether drivers are speeding or not. Much of this work is based on close cooperation with the insurance industry. The link between these research fields is contract design and the significance of providing incentives for the agents in ways which maximise social welfare. Road pricing CTS research relating to road pricing covers multiple issues and variants of road pricing: urban road pricing as well as kilometre charges on heavy-goods vehicles; charges for financial reasons as well as congestion pricing; acceptability and political issues as well as modelling effects of road pricing. There is also a relation to the procurement/contract focus area through our research regarding tendering and industrial organisation in the toll operator market. The case for road pricing has been advocated by transport economist and urban planners for a very long time. The theoretical case is generally speaking well established, but several practical research questions remain. This has been a main research focus for several CTS researchers for quite some time. We feel that not only do the Stockholm congestion charges give us an extraordinary research opportunity – we also have a special responsibility to the world to analyse and communicate the experiences from Stockholm. The role of the Centre in the past and future development and evaluation of the Stockholm charges has been and continues to be very strong – researchers at the centre were involved in the design, forecasts, analysis and evaluation, and we are still active in the analyses of the effects of the charges. CTS researchers now play a similar role in the planned Gothenburg charges. Further, we devote considerable time to communicating the experiences in Stockholm to other cities all around the world. For example, researchers at the Centre for Transport Studies have acted as expert advisors to policy-makers from (among others) Norway, Italy, Netherlands, France, Indonesia, Thailand, Hungary, United States, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Finland, just to name a few from recent years. These contacts have been at various levels, from civil servants to ministers, senators and members of national parliaments. The type of dissemination has varied, ranging from lectures and seminars to specific advice regarding strategies for implementation or scheme design. In these activities, results from several earlier research projects are used, and the results from the present project should be no exception. In our experience, these direct contacts with policy-makers, where results and conclusions from multiple research projects can be amalgamated to advice tailor-made for the policy-makers' specific context, is the most efficient dissemination channel imaginable. 18 The extraordinary research opportunity the Stockholm charging system provides, and the extremely large international interest, makes it natural to focus much of the research resources on this topic in a broad and general sense – especially since the topic of congestion charges ties into so many other related topics, such as transport economics, traffic theory, appraisal, travel demand modelling, urban living environment, acceptability, tendering complicated ITS solutions, and not least studying the lessons from the complicated political process. Over the past few years, our research has largely been focused on analysing effects of the Stockholm charges, and the experiences from the political process. Looking forward, we anticipate that analysing the effects of the Stockholm charges will be less important. Instead, we anticipate the main research topics to be transferability of experiences and results, acceptability and its prerequisites, design and modelling of congestion charging systems, and congestion charges in an institutional and political context. CTS has recently received a major additional grant for research about urban congestion charging from the SURPRICE European research network, where we will lead a consortium from five countries carrying out six sub-projects, covering multiple issues from acceptability over political economy to traffic simulation. We anticipate our international collaborations in this area to be even stronger in years to come. Other research A rapidly growing research area is real-time information and analysis. ToL (Koutsopoulos) has recently started a very valuable and interesting joint project with IBM, where IBM supplies hardware and dedicated software for very large-scale database handling and analysis. This is used to collect and analyze traffic data from a multitude of sources – traffic measurements, travel time measurements, GPS sensors in taxis etc. This is a rather recent development and has hence not yet acquired a formal CTS “focus area” status, but we expect this to be a fertile and growing area in the future. Summary statement concerning research productivity The number of publications per focus area (related to CTS-funded projects only) is found in Chapter 3. Counting only senior researchers at TLA and VTI-TEK (who constitute the core of CTS), and counting all types of papers (journal papers, conference proceedings, reports etc.), we get a personaverage of 3.5 papers per year during 2008-2009 (with a range between 0 and 11 papers per person) – note, though, that some of these are co-authored and some may be double-counted since they may appear in an early “conference” version and a later “journal” version. On average, PhD students publish typically around one paper per year. As to current CTS research productivity, we feel that there is room for improvement in some respects. While average “publication productivity” is decent, and several researchers have very strong publication records, more is going on at CTS than what is actually published. A relatively easy strategy to improve our publication rate would be to simply write up and submit papers on research projects that are carried out anyway. Similarly, we publish far too few papers on the applied policy issues we are engaged in. A large majority of our published research papers deal with what could be called “technical” issues – econometrics, model development, methodology, transport economic theory – and only a few deal with specific policy issues, despite the fact that many CTS researchers are engaged in analysing such issues. We feel that it would be a valuable contribution to the international literature to publish our experience and conclusions from such “policy case studies”, but so far, we have not made an effort to publish many such studies. Other projects not directly connected to the Centre There are many other projects at all of the partners not directly funded by CTS but related to the scope of CTS research. Indeed, as has been explained elsewhere, it makes little sense to separate CTSfunded activities from other activities at VTI and TLA. At WSP and JIBS, CTS projects make up a much smaller share of the total project volume, but naturally, there are many other “non-CTS” projects with direct or indirect connections to “pure CTS-projects”. 19 6. Financial Report for Stage 1 Financial concerns Some concerns regarding financial matters are: The fact that the CTS base funding is in the form of unconditional money (i.e. is not earmarked for specific projects) is of high importance. This gives freedom to explore new research areas and allows strategic steering in the project generation process. We feel that the mixture between conditional and unconditional money has been appropriate under the first two and one-half years. A concern is that the share of unconditional money must not decrease (at least not drastically) during the coming years. In order to fulfil the vision and mission CTS needs to continue to grow. This in turn requires a growing base funding. A concern is whether this will materialise or not, especially since all the funding public authorities currently have been or will be reorganising. So far, CTS has been successful in attracting external funding. This is essentially positive, but a concern is that it also leads to a somewhat uncertain budget situation making it risky to hire permanent staff. The accounting system at KTH is not well suited for a centre like CTS. It is particularly difficult to get control over projects that are funded from different sources and carried out by different CTS-partners. A concern is thus that it is difficult to make a long-term budget, since it is hard to get an overview over the proceeds and the rate at which they are consumed. The difficulties associated with budgeting in turn means that we tend to be risk aversive. A concern is that this means that fewer projects are carried out since by the time we know that we can afford starting a new project, the researchers may already be occupied by other tasks. This also means that too few recruitments have been made, which is particularly true for PhD students since it is difficult for them to attract external funding. Other sources of funding Existing sources of non-Centre funds include: The National Rail Administration The National Road Administration Vinnova EU research (FP6, FP7) FORMAS (research agency) The Swedish Research Council Strategic research funding from the Government (Trenop) The Office of Regional Planning in Stockholm The City of Stockholm The Stockholm County Administration 20 7. Personnel of High Competence Contribution to university education At TLA there are currently one full professor, one visiting professor, one associate professor and one assistant professor. As a result of our positive evaluation in the RAE (see chapter 3), TLA has been given resources to open up two new tenure track positions during 2010. The career path is commenced with a position as assistant professor which requires a doctoral degree and postdoctoral experience. After approximately 4 years, an assistant professor has the right to be considered for promotion to associate professor, and if successful, to a permanent tenure. After a further period as associate professor, you can apply for promotion to become a professor. The two positions that are currently open at TLA are as Assistant Professor in Transport Modelling and Assistant Professor in Transport Policy. These are currently announced and we are actively recruiting on the international scene. We believe that we have good opportunity to secure an internationally competitive future faculty. A position on KTH’s tenure track should be considered as a long-term commitment from KTH, in the form of resources and development opportunities. An important aspect of KTH’s tenure track is the career development programme which involves network building, support for scientific and pedagogical development, and management training. At TLA there is currently one international master programme in Transport Systems. This programme has been active only two years (that is, not before CTS was established at the department). It has been successful in that the number of applicants that had this programme as their first priority was drastically increased. This year 187 students applied for the programme as their primary choice. The programme is truly international with many students from European as well as non-European countries. The Division of Transport Economics at VTI has as one of its key indicators to produce at least ¾ PhD dissertations per year. The Department therefore has five to six PhD students employed. This high ambition is maintained to ensure a high and relevant competent staff at VTI as well as within the sector. To facilitate this program the Division has one full professor and one part-time professor (¼) in Transport Economics. The PhD students at VTI have a traditional background in Economics from Stockholm University (2), Uppsala University (1), Dalarna University (1) and KTH (1). Numerous researchers at VTI/TEK are responsible for courses as well as act as guest lecturers at universities such as Örebro University and Dalarna University in addition to KTH. People with leading international competence CTS has a Guest researcher program where distinguished researchers are employed at KTH or VTI for a limited period of time. The purposes of the program are; 1. 2. 3. to increase the inflow of new state-of-the art research methods and ideas, to write and publish a limited number of joint papers with and CTS researchers, and to increase the awareness of CTS in the research community around the world. Guest researchers at CTS have been: Chris Nash, Leeds, UK (2008, 2009 and 2010) Gerhard de Jong, Leeds, UK (2010) Henrik Anderson, Toulouse, France (2009 and 2010) Mogens Fosgerau, DTU, Denmark (2008, 2009 and 2010) Andrew Smith, Leeds, UK (2009) CTS has made a conscious effort to recruit people with mixed backgrounds from both academic research and applied policy-making and analysis. For example, Kågeson and Carlén are both very well-known and experienced policy advisors and analysts in environmental questions; Eliasson and Lundberg have both been very active in various applied transport planning contexts, most recently during their spell as alternating chairs of the Appraisal Committee for the National Investment Plan; 21 Börjesson and Hugosson have, after completing their PhDs, worked as consultants in various policy contexts. These are examples of recent CTS recruitments whose experiences and networks help bridge the gap between academic research and practitioners’ contexts. Students from outside KTH and Opportunities to work abroad From most of the partners, a majority of the researchers associated with CTS have first degrees from outside KTH. The highest share of degrees from KTH is probably found at TLA where currently 64 % are from KTH, 7 % from another Swedish university and 29 % from abroad. VTI and TLA have a policy that encourages students to study abroad for some time of their studies. One example is that as a part of CTS Henrik Andersson has been researcher at Toulouse with a focus on valuation of risks. Dr Andersson is now employed by Toulouse and a part of our growing network. 22 8. Plans for Development over the next three years Strengthen the role at the international research arena Increasing research productivity and quality should always be a top priority – even if the standard here is already high. CTS should also strengthen its international position and visibility as a leading research environment, thereby becoming even more attractive as a recruiter or collaborator. Specific measures and strategies we are planning to achieve this include: Increase the publication rate by publishing more of research that is already being done, and publish more of the applied policy cases that CTS is involved in. Increase publication rate and quality by continuing to hire world-leading guest researchers, at a somewhat higher pace than currently. Encourage CTS researchers to be visiting researchers at internationally leading groups abroad for short periods. Continue the dedicated network building with other leading international research groups by joint visits etc. Arrange major international conferences. CTS is co-hosting the ERSA conference 2010, and we made a nearly successful bid for hosting the WCTR 2013. Other possibilities would be ETC or the Kuhmo-Nectar conference. Strengthen the European policy perspective. Currently, a majority of our policy analyses are from a Swedish context. This should be complemented by more European and global case studies and policy analyses. Intensify knowledge dissemination Regarding knowledge dissemination, we feel that we have most of the necessary pieces – seminar series, working paper series, home page, mini-conferences – but we need to increase the number and visibility of these. CTS has recently (March 2010) hired a deputy director with a special responsibility for external communication, and this is already beginning to bear fruit. In the immediate future, we plan the following measures and strategies: Increase the number of mini-conferences (one-day seminars on a methodological or policy topic, with a handful of invited presenters). These have been extremely appreciated and successful – but too few. A reasonable ambition would be to arrange around six per year. Start a joint CTS working paper series, published and catalogued on REPEC or a similar online service. Improve the home page: regular news updates, a group blog (beta version operational in May 2010), easier navigation etc. We consider moving it out from the KTH web site to increase design freedom. Arrange short courses (1-5 days) for practitioners, centred either on methodological topics or specific application issues. This can build on material from current education, such as the KTH Masters’ program in Transport Systems, and on WSP’s one-day courses in cost-benefit analysis. Engage more people in applied policy advice and collaboration. Several CTS researchers are already frequently engaged as advisors and collaborators in various applied contexts, ranging from invited lectures or advice on specific issues to long-term collaborative projects. The next challenge will be to increase the number of people engaged in such work. Develop our role as a national resource and point of contact for transport model development and appraisal methodology. We feel that CTS is already taking on this role, more or less informally. To do this efficiently, though, we should develop strategies for how we work with this: how we coordinate, inform and share responsibilities internally, how we increase external awareness of CTS’ willingness to help in such issues, what “interfaces” to practitioners (especially at the national transport-related administrations) we should organise, how we convert our experience from such work to publishable research etc. Closer internal cooperation The establishment of CTS has already created considerable synergies among the partners in the form of joint projects, seminars and general knowledge and experience dissemination. We are planning to extend our cohesive strategies in several ways: A new house for TLA, ToL and VTI (the partners located at KTH campus) will be ready in March 2011. TLA has already moved once within KTH campus to locate closer to VTI. In the new house, there will also be working places available for researchers from WSP and JIBS working in CTS projects. 23 The creation of a Department for Transportation Sciences at KTH will also facilitate the integration and coordination of CTS partners, since the KTH organisation will be more logical. This will also strengthen collaboration with Highway and Railway Engineering, the third division of Dpt for Transport Sciences. The Management Group and the research coordinators will put increased attention to arranging projects with researchers from several partners. Currently, this is around 1/3 of all projects; not counting one-person projects, this figure increases to almost half of the projects. While this is not bad, there is room for improvement. A more structured process for cooperation with WSP has recently been established. In the future, a dedicated WSP contact person will meet regularly with the CTS director or management group to discuss possible collaborative projects. Joint projects with the new Transport Analysis authority. Exploration of new research areas Achieving high-quality research is a balance between building on current strengths and opening up new areas for research. Our research plan is presented in chapter 5, but it is worth repeating some of our plans for developing new research areas: better understanding, modelling and appraisal of walking and cycling; real-time traffic analysis and information services; international air passenger transport; better modelling of policies and regulations; connecting findings from neuroeconomics and behavioural economics to micro economically founded valuation; enriching transport CBA with results from “new economic geography” (agglomeration effects etc.); systematic appraisal and assessment of “innovative transport solutions” of various kinds. The list could be made longer, but the point is that in three years from now, it should be evident that CTS has opened up new fields of research – be it the ones listed here or others: the important thing is that we are prepared to meet new research challenges. Improve career opportunities CTS has actively been hiring promising junior researchers at the post-doc and assistant professor level. Supplying them with good career and development opportunities is important both to get a strong team of senior researchers in a couple of years from now, and for our possibility to continue to attract the best junior researchers. Our planned strategies include: KTH is currently devoting considerable funding for hiring assistant professors on tenure-tracked positions. CTS has already received several such positions (appointments during 2010), and we plan to continue participating in this KTH initiative Encourage junior researchers to be visiting researchers abroad for shorter periods. Dedicated help for extending research networks through activities such as formalised institutional cooperations (such as the one with ITS Leeds), invitations to join conference program committees and joint international projects. Engage junior researchers, whenever appropriate, in collaborations with practitioners to increase understanding of the interface between research and applied policy and to generate new research questions. Increasing the financial base The CTS environment has been very successful in attracting external funding. There are improvements to be made, however: We need better economic forecasts, in order to be more confident in our recruitment strategy. Currently, we have erred on the cautious side: in retrospect, we could have recruited more researchers and PhD students. With better economic forecasts, we could be bolder when considering what we can reasonably afford in terms of recruitment. Although we have attracted significant EU funding, there is potential to get even more. 24 9. Further information Finally – a quick summary of what Centre for Transport Studies has achieved in our first 2,5 years: - - - - 4 Over 120 projects started Well over 100 publications of various types Over 60 senior researchers and almost 20 PhD students involved in projects Extensive international network through various collaborations, EU projects, conference committees, associate editorships of journals etc. This should be further strengthened, both on an individual and institutional level. Previous evaluations have considered the “quality of research world-leading in parts... and of an international high standard in the remainder” (RAE, 2008) and “the research projects were extremely good... possibly the strongest collection of transport economists and transport modellers in Europe” (Scientific Advisory Board, 2009). There is potential for increasing the publication rate further. Extensive knowledge dissemination: 12 external conferences, two weekly seminar series, almost 200 lectures and presentations, somewhere over 50 media appearances in major media. Recently recruited new external communications director to increase this even more. Engaged in applied research: chaired the CBA committee during the preparation of the National Investment Plan, helped design the Gothenburg congestion charges, analysed the Stockholm congestion charges, advised around 20 other countries about designing congestion charges, continued to develop the national person and freight transport models, lead the work with the national strategic modelling/appraisal research plan, suggested new track charges, involved in the railway deregulation process etc. Recruited world-leading researchers as visiting researchers (Nash, Fosgerau, de Jong etc.) or permanent faculty (Kågeson, Frejinger etc.) The system with guest researchers has proven very fruiful and should be developed further. Attracted considerable external funding: the TRENoP programme (total 28 MSEK per year), the SURPRICE program (total 10, 5 MSEK) and around 17 MSEK other grants (only counting funding directly to the CTS budget). Better economic control and budget forecasts will allow us to be bolder in our expansion rate. Strong support from the host university (KTH) to CTS and to transport research in general: several new assistant professorships, a new Department for Transport Science is being formed, a new CTS/Transport Science Building is being built. CTS is strongly integrated in the rest of KTH Transport Science: the CTS Director is the Head of the Department for Transport and Economics before leaving to the new Head of the Department for Transport Science, who is also a CTS Office employee. Developed synergies between partners: almost half4 of all projects transcend partner borders (increasing over time), which will increase even further with clearer “points of contact” and the new building. Collaborations with other fields, for example through the TRENoP program (joint program with KTH Vehicle Technology and Highway/Railway Engineering, Linköping University Logistics and Communication), the KTH Transport Platform, VTIs Division of Traffic and Road Users and Division of Infrastructure etc. Not counting one-person projects. 25 10. Facts about the Centre a. CV Centre Director Name Profession Jonas Eliasson Professor Transport Systems Analysis, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) Director Centre for Transport Studies Head of Department for Transport and Economics 3 February 1969 Swedish Date of birth Nationality KEY EXPERIENCE Extensive experience of analysis and decision support in traffic planning, such as forecasting, appraisal, evaluation and cost-benefit analysis of road and rail investments, and in particular road pricing schemes. Extensive experience of transport model development and related econometrics, including estimation of transport models, refining econometric methods for transport modelling, integrated land use-transportation modelling, air/train competition, the influence of time and income on mode choice and values of time, departure time effects and activity-based modelling. Conducted several stated preference-based surveys in diverse field such as valuations of ticket restrictions, delays/reliability and noise/intrusion. Project manager for the system design and ex ante-evaluation of the Stockholm congestion charging scheme. Chairman of the ex post-evaluation expert group, with special responsibility for the cost-benefit analysis. Ongoing expert support for the continuous evaluation and refinement of the Stockholm congestion charges. Chairman of the joint Rail Administration and Road Administration committee for cost-benefit analysis supporting the preparation of the National Transport Investment Plan 2010-2021. EDUCATION 1995-2000 1990-1995 PhD Transport and location analysis, Royal Institute of Technology MSc Engineering Physics (specialization in optimization), Royal Institute of Technology EMPLOYMENT 2010200720072006-2008 2000 - 2006 1995-2000 Head of the Department for Transport and Economics, Royal Institute of Technology Director of Centre for Transport Studies, Royal Institute of Technology Professor Transport Systems Analysis, Royal Institute of Technology Project manager, WSP Analysis & Strategy Project manager, Head of Division, Head of R&D, Transek AB PhD student, Royal Institute of Technology REFEREED PUBLICATIONS Eliasson, J. (2009) A cost-benefit analysis of the Stockholm congestion charging system. Transportation Research A 43(4), pp. 468-480. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2008.11.014 Eliasson, J., Hultkrantz, L., Nerhagen, L., Smidfelt-Rosqvist, L. (2009) The Stockholm congestion-charging trial 2006: Overview of the effects. Transportation Research A 43, p. 240-250. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2008.09.007 Eliasson, J., Hultkrantz, L., Nerhagen, L., Smidfelt-Rosqvist, L. (2009) Introduction to special issue of the Stockholm congestion-charging trial 2006. Transportation Research A 43. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2008.09.001 Eliasson, J. (2008) Lessons from the Stockholm congestion charging trial. Transport Policy 15, p. 395-404. doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2008.12.004 Franklin, J., Eliasson, J. and Karlström, A. (2008) Traveller Responses to the Stockholm Congestion Pricing Trial: Who Changed, Where Did They Go, and What Did It Cost Them? In Saleh and Sammer (eds.): Demand Management and Road User Pricing: Success, Failure and Feasibility. Ashgate Publications. Eliasson, J., Brundell-Freij, K., and Beser Hugosson, M. (2008) The Stockholm Congestion Charging System: A Summary of the Effects. In Richardson, H.W., and Bae, C.C. (eds.): Road Congestion Pricing In Europe Implications for the United States. Edward Elgar. Eliasson, J. (2009) Expected and unexpected in the Stockholm Trial. In Gullberg and Isaksson (ed.): Congestion taxes in city traffic. Lessons learnt from the Stockholm Trial. Nordic Academic Press. (In Swedish as: Eliasson, J. (2008) Väntat och oväntat i Stockholmsförsöket. I Gullberg och Isaksson (red.): Stockholmsförsöket - en osannolik historia. Stockholmia förlag.) 26 Eliasson, J. (2008) The influence of accessibility on residential location. Theory and estimation of an integrated land use-transportation model. In Preston, J., Pagliara, F., and Simmonds, D. (eds.) Modelling Residential Location Choice, Ashgate. Eliasson, J and Mattsson, L-G (2006): Equity effects of congestion pricing: Quantitative methodology and a case study for Stockholm, Transportation Research Part A, vol 40, pp 602-620. Algers, S, Eliasson, J and Mattsson, L-G (2005): Is it time to use activity-based urban transport models? A discussion of planning needs and modelling possibilities. The Annals of Regional Science, vol. 39, pp. 767-789. Berdica, K. and J. Eliasson (2004) Regional accessibility analysis from a vulnerability perspective. In Nicholson and Dantas (eds.): Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Transportation Network Reliability (INSTR). Eliasson, J. and L-G. Mattsson (2001) Location and transport effects of road pricing. A simulation approach. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 35:417-456. Eliasson, J (2001): Estimation of a model for household location and travel choices. In Hensher, D (ed.) The leading edge in travel behaviour research, Elsevier. Eliasson, J (2001): Road pricing with limited information and heterogeneous users: A successful case. The Annals of Regional Science, vol. 35, no. 4, pp. 595-604. Eliasson, J och Martinez, F (2001): Interfaces between location, land-use and travel decisions. In Hensher, D (ed.) The leading edge in travel behaviour research, Elsevier. Eliasson, J. and L-G. Mattsson (2000) A model for integrated analysis of household location and travel choices. Transportation Research A 34, 375-394. doi:10.1016/S0965-8564(99)00038-5 Eliasson, J. and L-G. Mattsson (1998) Modeling long-period trip patterns with time and money constraints - the TILT land-use/transportation model. In Selected Proceedings of the 8th World Conference on Transport Research. SELECTED WORKING PAPERS AND OTHER PUBLICATIONS Hamilton, C. and Eliasson, J. (2010) How the new European legislation on Road User Charging may cost society €508M, and what can be done to save it. An evaluation from a social cost-benefit perspective. In Hamilton, licentiate thesis. Börjesson, M., Eliasson, J. and Franklin, J. (2010) Comparing valuations of transit travel time variability from scheduling and reduced-form models. To be presented at the 2010 World Conference of Transport Research, Lissabon. Börjesson, M. and Eliasson, J. (2010) The value of time and external benefits in bicycle cost-benefit analyses. To be presented at the 2010 World Conference of Transport Research, Lissabon. Eliasson, J. and Lundberg, M. (2010) Do cost-benefit analyses influence transport investment decisions? Experiences from the Swedish Transport Investment Plan 2010-2021. To be presented at the 2010 World Conference of Transport Research, Lissabon. Brundell-Freij, K., Börjesson, M., Eliasson, J. and Hugosson, M. (2010) The Stockholm congestion charges – 4 years on. Effects, acceptability and lessons learnt. To be presented at the 2010 World Conference of Transport Research, Lissabon. Eliasson, J. (2010) So you consider introducing congestion charging? Here’s what you need to know. An FAQ based on Stockholm experiences. OECD International Transport Forum Discussion Paper. Börjesson, M. and Eliasson, J. (2009) On the use of “average delay” as a measure of train reliability. Submitted to Transportation Research A. Eliasson, J. (2009) The relationship between travel time variability and road congestion. Submitted to Transportation Research E. Hamilton, C. and Eliasson, J. (2009) Vertical separation as means to establish interoperability in road tolling in Europe. Submitted to Transportation Research C Eliasson, J. and Jonsson, L. (2009) The unexpected “yes!”: Explanatory factors behind the positive attitudes to congestion charges in Stockholm. Submitted to European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research. Hamilton, C. and Eliasson, J. (2009) Road pricing technology and technology cost, Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, Leiden, Netherlands. Eliasson, J. and Höök, B. (2008) The Stockholm congestion charging system. Proceedings of the 15th World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems, New York. Börjesson, M., Eliasson, J., (2008) Train passengers’ valuation of travel time unreliability. Proceedings of the 2008 European Transport Conference. Karlström, A., Eliasson, J., and Levander, A. (2007) On the theoretical valuation of marginal business travel time savings. Proceedings of the 2007 European Transport Conference. 27 Börjesson, M., Eliasson, J., Levander, A., (2007) The value of time of car drivers choosing route: evidence from the Stockholm congestion charging trial. Proceedings of the 2007 European Transport Conference. Eliasson, J. (2007) The relationship between travel time variability and road congestion. Proceedings of the 2007 World Conference of Transport Research. Eliasson, J. (2006) Forecasting travel time variability. Proceedings of the 2006 European Transport Conference. Eliasson, J. and Beser Hugosson, M. (2006) The Stockholm congestion charging system – an overview of the effects after six months. Proceedings of the 2006 European Transport Conference. Eliasson, J. (2005) Variations in valuations of noise and intrusion effects. Are stated choice results compatible with hedonic prices? Proceedings of the 2005 European Transport Conference. Eliasson, J. (2004) Car drivers’ valuations of travel time variability, unexpected delays and queue driving. Proceedings of the 2004 European Transport Conference. Eliasson, J. and Lundberg, M. (2002) Road pricing in urban areas – a survey of research and experience. Transport & Environment Report. Eliasson, J., J. Lindqvist Dillén and J. Widell (2002) Measuring intrusion valuations through stated preferences and hedonic prices - a comparative study. Proceedings of the 2002 European Transport Conference. Eliasson, J., J. Lindqvist Dillén and J. Widell (2002) Air travellers’ valuation of ticket type restrictions - a stated preference survey (with J. Lindqvist Dillén and J. Widell). Proceedings of the 2002 European Transport Conference. Eliasson, J. (1999) The use of average time values in road pricing - a note on a common misconception. In Eliasson: Transport and Location Analysis, diss., Dpt. of Infrastructure and Planning, Royal Institute of Technology. SELECTED PROJECTS AND ASSIGNMENTS (last 5 years) 2009 Transport 2030 – a vision (Royal Academy of the Engineering Sciences) 2009 Strategic development plan for the National Modeling and Appraisal Methodologies 2009 Recommendations and analyses for the design of the Göteborg Congestion Charging System 2008 Evaluation of proposed Copenhagen congestion charges 2007- Chairman of the CBA committee for the National Transport Investment Plan 2009 2007 Financing the Stockholm Railway Tunnel: Geographical distribution of accessibility effects [Ministry of Enterprise and Transport] 2007 Expert group for the evaluation of the Stockholm Congestions charging system as of 2007 2007 Recommendations and analyses for the revision of the Stockholm Congestion Charging System 2006 Cost-benefit analysis of the Stockholm City Railway Tunnel and the Third Track [Ministry of Enterprise and Transport] 2006 Gender-related differences in travel behaviour – a life-cycle perspective. Evidence from Stockholm. [Stockholm County Administrative Board] 2006 Cost-benefit analysis of the Stockholm congestion charging system [City of Stockholm] 2006 Summary of evaluation of the effects of the Stockholm congestion charging trial. [City of Stockholm] 2006 Monthly evaluations of the Stockholm trial on traffic, travel times, retail, public transit and attitudes. [City of Stockholm] 2006 “Silvester” – development of a departure time choice model [KTH/Vinnova] 2006 Gender equity aspects on travel behaviour [Stockholm county board, Vinnova] 2006 Cost-benefit analysis of the Stockholm western ring road [National road administration] 2006 Oil transport supply in eastern Mälardalden [Stockholm Harbour] 2005 Financing the transport system [Regional planning authority, Stockholm] 2005 Social benefits of moving the E4 through Haparanda [National road administration ] 2005 The interaction between infrastructure investments and economic growth – a survey [Swedish Institute for studies in economic growth] 28 2005 Air passengers’ valuations of product components [SAS] 2005 The pricing of public transport in Stockholm [SL] 2005 Urban planning effects of the Southern Link [National road administration] PROFESSIONAL AWARDS AND SOCIETIES Elected member of the Royal Academy of the Engineering Sciences (since 2009). Member of Stockholms Byggnadsförening (since 2010). Annual Prize of the Swedish Association of Transportation Planners, 2007 Honorable mention in the Eric Pas Dissertation Award contest 2001. Nominated for the Best Paper by a Young Professional Award at WCTR 1998. OTHER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES (SAMPLE) Member of the Scientific Reference Group of the Norwegian cost-benefit valuation study (2007 - 2010) Various conference program committees, including European Transport Conference (two committees, 2004-), Transport Forum (two committees, 2008-) Advisor for 4 master’s theses. Supervises 5 PhD students. Opponent or member of evaluation committees for several Lic and PhD dissertations. Around 70 invited lectures and presentations spring 2008 – spring 2010. Examples: Swedish parliament, Ministry of Enterprise, City of Stockholm, Port of Stockholm, Global City Summit, OECD, ITF, National Transport Forum, Infratrain, Nordic Road Federation Around 30 media appearances in major newspapers and tv channels spring 2008 – spring 2010. Around 20 reviewing assignments spring 2008 – spring 2010: Transportation Research A, Transportmetrica, Transport Policy, Transport Reviews, Journal of Choice Modelling etc. b. Centre Partners Table 1 Centre partners Partner KTH VTI WSP JIBS Transport Policy Swedish Transport Adm Nat Public Trp Agency Key contact Jonas Eliasson Gunnar Lindberg Fredrik Bergström Andreas Stephan Maria Melkersson Caroline Ottoson Hans Wreber Position Director of Centre for Transport Studies Research Director Dept of Transport Economics Director WSP Analysis & Strategy Professor of Economics Senior Analyst Director Finance and control Head of department c. Board of Directors Table 2 Board of Directors Perm member Dep member Perm member Dep member Perm member Dep member Perm member Dep member Perm member Name Stefan Fölster (chair) Niclas Adler Björn Hårsman Marcus Asplund Lars Hultkrantz Jonas Bjelfvenstam Fredrik Bergström Hans Wreber Caroline Ottoson Dep member Dep member Ulla-Stina Ingemarsson Maria Melkersson Position and Company Director, Svenskt Näringsliv Managing Director and Dean, JIBS Professor, KTH Professor KTH Professor, VTI Director General, VTI Director, WSP Analysis & Strategy Head of dept, Nat Public Transport Agency Director Finance and control, Swedish Transport Adm Head of dept, Swedish Transport Adm Senior Analyst, Transport Analysis d. Management Group Table 3 Management Group Organization KTH/CTS Name Jonas Eliasson Position Director CTS Role in team Chair Location Stockholm Jönköping Stockholm Stockholm Stockholm Stockholm Stockholm Sundsvall Borlänge Göteborg Östersund 29 KTH/CTS KTH/TLA KTH/CTS VTI JIBS Mattias Lundberg Anders Karlström Susanne Jarl Gunnar Lindberg Andreas Stephan Deputy director CTS Head of Division Administrator Research Director Professor of Economics Member Member Secretary Member Member e. Scientific board Table 4 Scientific Advisory Board Name Michel Bierlaire Stef Proost Mark Wardman f. Position Professor Professor Professor Organization EPFL, Transport Laboratory Cat. University ITS Location Lausanne Leuwen Leeds Research Program Table 5 Research Projects and Staff (project leader in bold) No Project name 01. Centre management 20071 2008 Personyear Person- Person- Person2007- year year year 2009 2010 2011 2012 Participants 1,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 Gunnar Lindberg Göran Friberg Jonas Eliasson Lars-Göran Mattsson Muriel Hugosson Expenditures Susanne Jarl The importance of income growth 3 for the value of time Auctioning - theory and 4 experiments 5 05. Application HET Qualification 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 Jan-Erik Swärdh 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 Joakim Ahlberg Lars-Göran 0,0 Mattsson Staffan Algers Svante Mandell Accessibility and productivity from 6 a micro perspective 0,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 Anders Karlström Lars Lundqvist Tom Petersen Hypothetical bias in studies of the 7 value of time 0,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 Jan-Erik Swärdh Maria Börjesson Staffan Algers Cost-benefit analyses in the National Transport Investment 8 Plan 2,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Jonas Eliasson Mattias Lundberg 9 CTS and Climate Policy 0,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 Daniel Jonsson 30 Göran Friberg P-O Hesselborn Roger Pyddoke Staffan Algers 10 10. Stability in climat agreements 0,0 0,2 0,0 Svante Mandell Sofia Grahn0,0 Voorneveld Svante Mandell 11 Attitudes to congestion charges 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 Jonas Eliasson Lina Jonsson The EU's climate and transport 12 policy 13 Risk perception Validity tests of WTP14 measurements Mesoscopic traffic assignment 15 and route choice modelling 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 Svante Mandell 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 Henrik Andersson 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 Henrik Andersson 1,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 Anders Karlström PhD to be named Emma Frejinger Haris Koutsopoulos The market for systems for road 16 toll payments Freight model development 17 (prestudy) 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 Carl Hamilton 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 Inge Vierth 18 Highspeedrail - miniconference 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 Roger Pyddoke 19 Challenges to the CBA approach 20. Mogens Fosgerau guest 20 researcher 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 Fredrik Hansen 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 Mogens Fosgerau Mogens Fosgerau Distribution effects of RP and 21 intra-personal variation A genderperspective in 22 transportation research 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 Joel Franklin 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 Gunnar Lindberg 23 23. Centre conference 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 various Congestion pricing effects with 24 labour market distortions 1,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 Jonas Eliasson Jonas Westin Lars-Göran Mattsson Equity and adaptation aspects on 25 the Stockholm charges 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 Anders Karlström Joel Franklin Jonas Eliasson Alternative methods for estimating time values for cost benefit analysis in the transport 26 sector 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 Ioannis Tikoudis 31 Jonas Eliasson Lars-Göran Mattsson 27 Pay As You Speed 0,1 0,0 0,0 28 Fiscal Federalism Research Exchange program - Risk research Toulouse School of 29 Economics 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 Jan-Eric Nilsson Scherzod 0,0 Yarmukhamedov 0,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 Henrik Andersson 30 30. Chris Nash Guest researcher 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 Chris Nash 31 31. CBA seminar 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 Jan-Eric Nilsson 32 32. Experiment lab 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 Anders Karlström Svante Mandell Climate policies towards the car 33 fleet Procurement of public transport 34 prestudy 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 Svante Mandell 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 Jan-Eric Nilsson Lina Jonsson 35 Support to ERSA Jönköping 2010 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 Andreas Stephan Gunnar Lindberg Lars-Göran Mattsson 36 One year follow-up 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 Expenditures 37 37. INFRATRAIN 2009 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Andreas Stephan 38 A database for the Öresund region 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 Anders Karlström 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 Emma Frejinger 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 Joel Franklin 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 Emma Frejinger 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 Emma Frejinger 0,5 0,2 0,0 0,0 Anders Karlström Finalization of various route 39 choice modelling projects Fluctuations in Travel Time 40 Reliability Route choice modelling - in 41 practice Estimation of dynamic route 42 choice models A neuroscientific approach to stated preference - an fMRI study 43 of hypothetical bias Gunnar Isacsson Regulation of the market for road 44 user charging 46. Andrew Smith Guest 46 researcher The value of time of car drivers choosing route: evidence from the Stockholm congestion charging 47 trial 0,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 Carl Hamilton 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 Andrew Smith 0,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 Jonas Eliasson Maria Börjesson 48 Equity and Travel choice Assessment of long term effects of economic policy instruments on 49 the transport system 0,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 Joel Franklin 1,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 Daniel Jonsson 32 Lars-Göran Mattsson On the use of “average delay” as a 50 measure of train reliability 1,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 Jonas Eliasson Maria Börjesson Cost-benefit analyses in the National Transport Investment 51 Plan 1,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 Jonas Eliasson Mattias Lundberg Pia Sundbergh Vulnerability analyses of road 52 networks 1,2 0,9 0,0 0,0 Erik Jenelius Lars-Göran Mattsson Accessibility and productivity from 53 a micro perspective - continued 0,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 Anders Karlström Lars Lundqvist opponent to be named Tom Petersen 54 Regional economy and transports 0,8 0,0 0,0 0,0 Anders Karlström Lars Lundqvist Marcus Sundberg opponent to be named 55. SURPRICE coordination 55 support 0,0 0,4 0,4 0,0 Carl Hamilton Göran Friberg Mattias Lundberg Emission permits trading and 56 innovation incentives 0,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 Svante Mandell Emprical Studies of Commuting 57 and the Value of Time 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 Jan-Erik Swärdh 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 Joakim Ahlberg 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 Henrik Andersson 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 Henrik Andersson 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 Muriel Hugosson Revenues in Discrete Multi-Unit, Common Value Auctions: A Study 58 of Three Sealed-Bid Mechanisms 59. Evaluation of disturbance 59 from noise 60 60. Pricing of rail and road noise Testing the vehicle register to 61 support modelling Roger Pyddoke Staffan Algers The potential for substition 62 between train and air travel 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 Christer Persson Jonas Eliasson 33 Lina Jonsson Maria Börjesson Drivers of Changes in Travel 63 Patterns- Stockholm 1986 to 2004 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 Jonas Eliasson Kandice Kreamer Fults Maria Börjesson Enhanced analysis of the Swedish 64 Value of Time Study 2007 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 Maria Börjesson Staffan Algers 65 Car ownership and car use 0,1 0,4 0,0 0,0 computers Lina Jonsson Roger Pyddoke Urban Björketun The interaction of housing, labour markets and transportation – towards an estimable dynamic, overlapping generation, search 66 equilibrium model 0,4 1,0 0,0 0,0 Anders Karlström Christer Anderstig Gunnar Isacsson Ioannis Tikoudis Further development of the 67 Swedish vehicle fleet model 0,3 1,0 0,0 0,0 data collection PhD to be named Muriel Hugosson Staffan Algers RAILTRAM - improving rail freight 68 transport modelling 0,4 1,3 1,1 0,0 Gerhard Troche Inge Vierth Nicklas Lord to be named International Civil Aviation 69 Emissions Trading 0,6 0,9 0,4 0,0 Fredrik Kopsch Jan-Eric Nilsson Svante Mandell Accident externality and vehicle 70 size 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 Gunnar Lindberg Lina Jonsson 71 Highspeed railway and climate 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 Jan-Eric Nilsson Roger Pyddoke 72 Focus area coordination 0,3 0,1 0,0 0,0 Andreas Stephan Göran Friberg Jan-Eric Nilsson Jonas Eliasson 34 Karin Brundell-Freij Staffan Algers 73 Application strategic funds 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 Jonas Eliasson 74 Ferry communting 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Anna Mellin Biofuels production versus 75 forestry Asymmetric information and 77 vehicle insurance 0,3 0,0 0,0 Roger Pyddoke Johanna Jussila 0,0 Hammes 0,7 0,5 0,0 0,0 Jan-Eric Nilsson Sara Arvidsson Experiences from the Stockholm 78 congestion charges 2006-2009 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 Jenny Källström Jonas Eliasson Karin Brundell-Freij Lars-Göran Mattsson Modelling congesting charging in 79 Stockholm 0,0 0,6 0,0 0,0 Daniel Jonsson Dirk van Amelsfort Leonid Engelson Maria Börjesson Muriel Hugosson Are the experiences from the Stockholm congestion charges 80 transferable? 0,0 0,6 0,0 0,0 Dirk van Amelsfort Maria Börjesson Muriel Hugosson How can the Stockholm congestion charging perform closer to optimal when specific 81 design constraints are relaxed 0,0 0,6 0,0 0,0 Dirk van Amelsfort Leonid Engelson Maria Börjesson Revealed preferencies of 82 congestion charging acceptability 0,2 0,1 0,0 0,0 Björn Hårsman John Quigley Commuting time changes over 84 time 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 Jan-Erik Swärdh 85 Centre management 2009 3,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Emma Frejinger Gunnar Lindberg Göran Friberg Jonas Eliasson Lars-Göran Mattsson Maria Börjesson Muriel Hugosson Expenditures 35 Susanne Jarl ADDYS - Theoretical justification for additive and quasi additive travel costs in road networks with 86 uncertain travel time Data for elasticity calculations at 87 Rikstrafiken 0,0 0,2 0,2 0,0 Leonid Engelson 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 Göran Tegner Muriel Hugosson Roger Pyddoke Simplified model for use at 88 Rikstrafiken Interpretation of the implications of the latest VoT-study for 89 procurements at Rikstrafiken 0,0 0,3 0,0 0,0 Muriel Hugosson 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 Maria Börjesson Muriel Hugosson 90 Prerequisites for comercial traffic 0,1 0,3 0,0 0,0 Kjell Jansson Roger Pyddoke Global warming policy papers 91 revision The external health costs from 92 Transport 0,3 0,1 0,0 0,0 Svante Mandell 0,0 0,4 0,0 0,0 Anna Mellin Lena Nerhagen Causal links in congestion charging's equity effects (2nd 93 version) Are economic policy measures 94 efficient? 0,3 0,2 0,0 0,0 Joel Franklin 0,0 1,2 1,2 0,0 Christer Anderstig Joakim Johansson Jonas Eliasson Matts Andersson Michael Lundholm Roger Pyddoke Tommy Lundgren 95 Freight tranport modelling 0,2 0,7 0,7 0,7 Nicklas Lord 96 Congestion charges in Göteborg 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 Daniel Jonsson Jonas Eliasson Maria Börjesson Muriel Hugosson 97 Auctioning of CO2 permits 0,2 0,8 0,0 0,0 Jan-Eric Nilsson 98 The political economy of biofuels 0,0 0,8 0,0 Joakim Ahlberg Johanna Jussila 0,0 Hammes 99 Developing new MEV models 0,0 0,6 0,1 0,0 Anders Karlström Nicholas Ibanez Travel time variability, subject to a 100 random bottleneck. Accessibility, new firm location 101 and productivity 0,2 0,3 0,0 0,0 Joel Franklin 0,0 1,2 0,8 0,0 Andreas Stephan 36 various Johan Klaesson Martin Andersson Tom Petersen The long-term beneift of public transport - Case study the Metro 102 of Stockholm 0,0 0,6 0,6 0,0 Christer Anderstig Daniel Jonsson Jonas Eliasson Leonid Engelson Maria Börjesson Mattias Lundberg Muriel Hugosson The role of assumptions for the cost-benefit ratio of transport 103 investments 0,0 1,4 1,4 0,0 Daniel Jonsson Jonas Eliasson Kerstin Pettersson Leonid Engelson Maria Börjesson Peter Almström Svante Berglund 104 Regulating railroads 0,4 0,1 0,0 0,0 Jan-Eric Nilsson Roger Pyddoke Stefan Pettersson 105 Optimal timetables in CBAs 0,0 0,6 0,0 0,0 Emma Frejinger Jonas Eliasson Lena Wieweg Maria Börjesson Multi-source traffic data fusion for monitoring, evaluation, and 106 control 0,0 1,9 1,0 0,0 PhD to be named Haris Koutsopoulos Mahmood Rahmani Efficient estimation of origin107 destination (OD) flows 0,0 1,2 0,0 0,0 Haris Koutsopoulos Tatsiana Aneichyk 108 CO2 differentiated port dues Route choice modelling with 109 random link costs 0,0 0,1 0,0 0,0 Anna Mellin 0,0 0,4 0,0 0,0 Anders Karlström Marcus Sundberg Biofuels production versus forestry in the presence of lobbies 110 and technological change 0,0 0,1 0,0 Johanna Jussila 0,0 Hammes Willingness to pay for sustainable 111 attributes - presentation at WRSA 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Svante Mandell 37 112 Marknaden för vägavgiftssystem 0,0 0,3 0,0 0,0 Carl Hamilton Frequently asked questions about 113 congestion charging 0,0 0,1 0,0 0,0 Jonas Eliasson Next generation forecast models 114 An activity based approach 0,0 0,8 1,3 1,0 Anders Karlström Ass prof to be named PhD to be named Use of, and plans for development, of CBAs in the 115 investment planning 0,0 0,5 0,0 0,0 Jonas Eliasson Mattias Lundberg Muriel Hugosson Pia Sundbergh Lars Hultkrantz Enhanced analysis of the Swedish 116 Value of Time Study 2007 0,0 0,5 0,0 0,0 Jonas Eliasson Maria Börjesson Staffan Algers The value of time and external benefits in bicycle cost-benefit 117 analysis 0,0 0,5 0,0 0,0 Jonas Eliasson Maria Börjesson Drivers of changes in travel 118 patterns - Extension 0,0 0,5 0,0 0,0 Maria Börjesson Kandice KreamerFults 119 Centre Management 2010 0,0 1,5 0,0 0,0 Anders Karlström Gunnar Lindberg Göran Friberg Jonas Eliasson Mattias Lundberg Expenditures Susanne Jarl 120 120. Per Kågeson initial contract 121. ERSA-CTS-IHH Summer 121 school Dynamic car ownership model - a 122 feasibility study 0,0 0,1 0,0 0,0 Per Kågeson 0,0 0,8 0,0 0,0 Charlie Karlsson 0,0 0,2 0,2 0,0 Roger Pyddoke Staffan Algers Shiva Habibi Gerard de Jong Procured Road and Rail 123 Investments Total 0,0 0,3 0,0 0,0 to be named 36,6 28,4 9,3 1,8 38 g. Publication and Presentation Activity Table 6a List of publications Note: Publication lists for 2010 are incomplete. Publications in scientific journals in 2010 Andersson, H., Jonsson, L., Ögren, M., (2010). Property Prices and Exposure to Multiple Noise Sources: Hedonic Regression with Road and Railway Noise, Environmental and Resource Economics, Vol 45(1) Mandell, S., Holt, C., Myers, E., Burtraw, D. and Wråke, M, (2010), "Teaching Opportunity Cost in an Emissions Permit Experiment". International Review of Economics Education, Forthcoming Mandell, S., Wråke, M., Myers, E.C., Burtraw, D. and Holt C.A., (2010), "Pricing Strategies Under Emissions Trading: An Experimental Analysis", Environmental and Resource Economics, Forthcoming Mandell, S., (2010) "Steering the European transport greenhouse gas emissions under uncertainty", Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 44(1) Franklin, J. P., Karlström, A., (to appear). Travel time reliability for Stockholm Roadways: Modeling the mean lateness factor, Transportation Research Record Accepted: 2009-03-04. Fosgerau, M., Karlström, A., (2010). The value of reliability, Transportation Research Part B 44(1): 3849. Jenelius, E., Westin, J., Holmgren, Å. J., (2010). Critical infrastructure protection under imperfect attacker perception, International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection 3(1): 16-26. Jenelius, E., (2010). User inequity implications of road network vulnerability, Journal of Transport and Land Use 2(3-4): 57-73. Book contributions in 2010 Frejinger, E., Bierlaire, M., (2010). On path generation algorithms for route choice models, in Hess, S., Daly, A. J., (eds.), Choice Modelling: The State-of-the-art and the State-of-practice Proceedings from the Inaugural International Choice Modelling Conference, Emerald Group Publishing Limited. ISBN: 9781849507721 Technical reports in 2010 Jenelius, E., Mattsson, L.-G., (2010). Road network vulnerability analysis of area-covering disruptions: A grid-based approach with case study, Working paper, TLA, Royal Insititute of Technology, Stockholm Jenelius, E., Mattsson, L.-G., Levinson, D., (2010). The traveler costs of unplanned transport network disruptions: An activity-based approach, Working paper, TLA, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm Mandell, S., "Carbon Emission Values in Cost Benefit Analyses", Working Paper 2010:4, VTI, Dept. of Transport Economics. S-WoPEc 2010:4 Vierth, I., Samhällsekonomiskt underlag för hamnpoltiken VTI Rapport 2010: 672 Andersson, M. "Marginal cost of railway infrastructure wear and tear for freight and passenger trains in Sweden." Working Paper 2010:5, VTI, Dept. of Transport Economics. S-WoPEc 2010:5 Mellin A. (2010) SJÖMIL- Sjöfart, miljö och ekonomi VTI Notat 2010:N6 Mellin A. och J. Ståhle (2010) Omvärlds- och framtidsanalys - Längre och tyngre väg- och järnvägsfordon 39 VTI Rapport 2010:676 Publications in scientific journals in 2009 Andersson, H. and Lindberg G. (2009) Benevolence and the value of statistical life. Accident Analysis and Prevention 41 (2009) 286 - 293. Winslott-Hiselius, L., Brundell-Freij K., Vagland Å., Byström C. (2009) The development of public attitudes towards the Stockholm congestion trial. Transportation Research Part A 43 p 269-282. Pyddoke R., Nilsson J-E. und Eriksson T., Neue Ausgestaltung des finanziellen Ausgleichs im öffentlichem Verkehr, Die Zukunft des öffentlichen Personennahverkehrs, Schriftenreihe Umvelt-RechtGesellschaft, Der Juristische Verlag lexxion Karlström, A., Franklin, J. P., (2009). Behavioral adjustments and equity effects of congestion pricing: Analysis of morning commutes during the Stockholm Trial, Transportation Research Part A 43(3): 283-296. Frejinger, E., Bierlaire, M., Ben-Akiva, M., (2009). Sampling of Alternatives for Route Choice Modeling, Transportation Research Part B 43(10): 984-994. Jenelius, E., (2009). Network structure and travel patterns: Explaining the geographical disparities of road network vulnerability, Journal of Transport Geography 17(3): 234-244. Ahlberg, J., (2009). Revenues in discrete multi-unit, common value auctions: a study of three sealedbid mechanisms, Portuguese Economic Journal 8(1): 3-14. Eliasson, J., (2009). A cost-benefit analysis of the Stockholm congestion charging system, Transportation Research Part A 43(4): 468 - 480. Eliasson, J., Hultkrantz, L., Nerhagen, L., Smidfelt Rosqvist, L., (2009). The Stockholm congestion charging trial 2006: Overview of effects, Transportation Research Part A 43(3): 240 - 250. Eliasson, J., Hultkrantz, L., Nerhagen, L., Smidfelt Rosqvist, L., (2009). Introduction to special issue of the Stockholm congestion-charging trial 2006. Transportation Research Part A 43(3): 237 - 239. Gudmundsson, H., Ericsson, E., Beser Hugosson, M., (2009). Framing the role of Decision Support in the case of Stockholm Congestion Charging Trial, Transportation Research Part A 43(3): 258-268. Mandell, S., (2009). Policies towards a more efficient car fleet, Energy Policy 37(12): 5184-5191. Accepted 2009 for publication in scientific journals Jenelius, E., Westin, J., Holmgren, Å. J., (to appear). Critical infrastructure protection under imperfect attacker perception, International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection Accepted: 2009-10-15. Gao, S., Frejinger, E., Ben-Akiva, M., (to appear). Adaptive Route Choices in Risky Traffic Networks: A Prospect Theory Approach, Transportation Research Part C Accepted: 2009-08-10. Andersson, H., Jonsson, L., Ögren, M., (to appear). Property Prices and Exposure to Multiple Noise Sources: Hedonic Regression with Road and Railway Noise, Environmental and Resource Economics Accepted for publication Accepted: 2009-06-09. Franklin, J. P., Karlström, A., (to appear). Travel time reliability for Stockholm Roadways: Modeling the mean lateness factor, Transportation Research Record Accepted: 2009-03-04. 40 Book contributions in 2009 Eliasson, J., (2009). Expected and Unexpected in the Stockholm Trial - A personal view, in Gullberg, A., Isaksson, K., (eds.), Congestion Taxes in City Traffic: lessons learnt from the Stockholm Trial, Nordic Academic Press, Sweden Franklin, J. P., Eliasson, J., Karlström, A., (2009). Traveller Responses to the Stockholm Congestion Pricing Trial: Who Changed, Where Did They Go, and What Did It Cost Them? In W. Saleh and G. Sammer(eds.): Travel Demand Management and Road User Pricin, Travel demand management and Road User Pricing: Success, Failure and Feasibility , Ashgate Publications, pp. 215-238 Karlström A. and Mattsson, L.-G. (2009) “Place, space syntax and attraction-accessibility”, Invited Paper, In Koch, D., Marcus, L. and Steen, J. (eds) Proceedings of the 7th International Space Syntax Symposium, KTH/ARK/FP-09:01-SE. Nilsson, J-E. Nya vägar för infrastruktur. SNS förlag Conference proceedings in 2009 Fosgerau, M., Frejinger, E., Karlström, A., (2009). Route choice modelling without route choice, Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, Leiden, Netherlands. PDF Kreamer Fults, K., Isacsson, G., Karlström, A., (2009). Gender differences in value of commuting time- evidence from a household model of subjective life satisfaction in Sweden, proceedings of Transportation Research Board, Research in Women's Travel Issues Conference, Irvine, CA, USA Karlström, A., Fosgerau, M., Frejinger, E., (2009). Solving route choice models in a dynamic discrete choice framework, Proceedings of the 13th Euro Working Group on Transportation Meeting, Italy Hamilton, C. J., Eliasson, J., (2009). Road pricing technology and technology cost, Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, Leiden, Netherlands Grush, B., Schortmann, J. C., Hamilton, C. J., Martínez-Olagüe, M. A., (2009). GMAR - a framework for performance monitoring autonomous RUC, Proceedings from the 16th World Congress for ITS Systems and Services, Stockholm, Sweden. PDF Hamilton, C. J., (2009). Why the EETS Directive will fail and what can be done to save it, Proceedings from the 16th World Congress for ITS Systems and Services, Stockholm, Sweden Frejinger, E., Bierlaire, M., Ben-Akiva, M., (2009). Expanded path size attribute for route choice models including sampling correction, Proceedings of the International Choice Modelling Conference, Harrogate, UK Jenelius, E., (2009). Secondary link importance: Links as rerouting alternatives during road network disruptions, Proceedings of First International Conference on Evacuation Modeling and Management (ICEM), Haag, Netherlands Jonsson, L., Lindberg, G., (2009). Accident externality and vehicle size - evidence from Swedish collision accidents, Proceeding of the European Transport Conference, Leiden, Netherlands Eliasson, J., Jonsson, L., (2009). The unexpected "yes!": Explanatory factors behind the positive attitudes to congestion charges in Stockholm, Proceeding of European Transport Conference, 2009, Leiden, Netherlands Brundell-Freij, K., Jonsson, L., (2009). Accepting charging - a matter of trusting the effects?, Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, Leiden, Netherlands 41 Börjesson, M. M., Fosgerau, M., Algers, S., (2009). The income elasticity of the value of travel time is not one number, Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, Leiden, Netherlands Karlström, A, Ståhle, A., Marcus, L, Koch and L-G Mattsson (2009). Place, space syntax, and attraction-accessibility, Proceedings of the Seventh International Space Syntax Symnposium, Stockholm June 2009. Karlström, A. Responses to the Stockholm Congestion Pricing Trial: Who Changed, Where Did They Go, and What Did It Cost. Kuhmo-Nectar Conference, Copenhagen, 2009. Karlström, A. Scaling up a dynamic microeconomic discrete choice activity based model, joint with Paul Wadell and Dieter Fox. European Transport Conference (ETC), Leewenheurst, Holland, 2009. Karlström, A. Gender differences in the value of commuting time – evidence from a household model of subjective life satisfaction in Sweden, co-authored with Kandice Fults and Gunnar Isacsson. Fourth International TRB Conference on Women’s Issues in Transportation, Oct 2009. Ahlberg, J Common Value, Multi-Unit Auctions with Private Signals - Comparing Laboratory Experiments With Theory. M-BEES 2009 - Maastricht Behavioral and Experimental Economics Symposium: Theory and Experiments. Maastricht, Netherlands, June 2009. Ahlberg, J Common Value, Multi-Unit Auctions with Private Signals - Comparing Laboratory Experiments With Theory. ESA - Economic Science Association. Tucson, US, November 2009. Franklin, JP, 2009. "The Role of Preference Variation in the Accessibility and Equity Effects of Congestion Pricing." Paper presented at the 1st Transatlantic NECTAR Conference, Arlington, VA, USA. Franklin, JP, 2009. "Modelling Reliability as Expected Lateness: A Schedule-Based Approach for User Benefit Analysis." Paper presented at the European Transport Conference 2009, Leeuwenhorst, Netherlands. Technical reports in 2009 Lord, N., Mellin, A., Vierth, I., (2009). Transporteffekter av IMO:s skärpta emissionskrav modellberäkningar på uppdrag av Sjöfartsverket, Workin Paper 2009:15, VTI Mellin, A., (2009). Granskning av "Båtpendling på inre vattenvägar", Technical Report, CTS. PDF Hylén, B., (2009). Policy and Research Recommendations Report, SPUTNIC Deliverable D5 Hylén, B., (2009). Best Practices and Recommendations Report, SPUTNIC Deliverable D4 Hylén, B., (2009). Identification of needs for further research , LINK Deliverable D23b Jenelius, E., (2009). Road network vulnerability analysis of area-covering disruptions: A grid-based approach with case study, Technical Report, TLA, Royal Insititute of Technology, Stockholm Börjesson, M. M., Eliasson, J., (2009). On the use of "average delay" as a measure of train reliability, Technical report CTS 090529, Centre for Transport Studies, Stockholm, Sweden. Submitted for possible publication in Transportation Research Part A. PDF Eliasson, J., Lundberg, M., (2009). Alternativa scenariers påverkan på lönsamhet, Vägverket publikation 2009:98. ISSN: 1401-9612 Nilsson, J., Pyddoke, R., (2009). Höghastighetsjärnvägar - ett klimatpolitiskt stickspår, Rapport 655, VTI Swärdh, J-E., (2009). Commuting time changes following residential relocations and job relocations, 42 Working Paper 2009:11, VTI Swärdh, J-E., Algers, S., (2009). Willingness to accept commuting time for yourself and for your spouse: Empirical evidence from Swedish stated preference data, Working Paper 2009:5, VTI Hammes, J., (2009). Biofuels production versus forestry in the presence of lobbies and technological change, Working Paper 2009:7, VTI Mandell, S., (2009). Prices and Quantities in a Climate Policy Setting, Working Paper 2009:4, VTI. PDF Mandell, S., (2009). Incentives for innovation and adoption of new technology under emissions trading, Working Paper 2009:10, VTI Mandell, S., Wråke, M., Myers, E. C., Holt, C. A., Burtraw, D., (2009). Pricing Strategies under Emissions Trading: An Experimental Analysis, Working Paper 2009:1, VTI Pyddoke, R., (2009). "Empiriska analyser av bilanvändning och bilägande i Sverige - Empirical analyses of car ownership and car use in Sweden", VTI report 653. Jansson, K. and Pyddoke, R., (2009). "Quality incentives versus quality outcomes in procured public transport - Case study Stockholm". Paper presented at 11th conference on competition and ownership in land passenger transport. Pyddoke, R., Nilsson. J-E. och Eriksson, T., (2009). Nya former för ersättning i kollektivtrafiken, VTI rapport 625. Nilsson, J-E., Pyddoke, R, (2009). Höghastighetsjärnvägar – ett klimatpolitiskt stickspår. Rapport 2009:3 till Expertgruppen för miljöstudier. VTI rapport 655. Nilsson, J-E., R. Pyddoke, Andersson, M., Hansen, F., Isacsson, G, Lindberg, G., Nerhagen, L., (2009). Infrastrukturpolitik på samhällsekonomisk grund. VTI-rapport 654. Pyddoke R., Nilsson J-E. und Eriksson T., (2009). Neue Ausgestaltung des finanziellen Ausgleichs im öffentlichem Verkehr, Die Zukunft des öffentlichen Personennahverkehrs, Schriftenreihe UmveltRecht-Gesellschaft, Der Juristische Verlag lexxion. Mattsson, L.-G., (2008) ”Samhällsekonomisk analys av ett huvudvägnät för godstransporter En idédiskussion och förslag till upplägg”, Institutionen för transporter och samhällsekonomi, KTH,100 44 Stockholm. (Utkom 2009) Algers, S., Mattsson, L.-G., Rydergren, C. and Östlund, B. (2009) “Sampers – erfarenheter och utvecklingsmöjligheter på kort och lång sikt”, Rapport från Institutionen för transporter och samhällsekonomi och Centrum för transportstudier Stockholm med flera. Eliasson, J. och Lundberg, M (2009) Samlad effektbedömning. I Nationell plan för transportsystemet 2010-2021. Eliasson, J. (2009) Travel time variability in CBA - current Swedish practice. (Co-rapporteur for OECD/ITF discussion paper.) Eliasson, J. (2009) The relationship between travel time variability and road congestion. Hamilton, C. and Eliasson, J. (2009) Vertical separation as means to establish interoperability in road tolling in Europe. Andersson, M. (VTI), CATRIN (Cost Allocation of TRansport INfrastructure cost), Deliverable D6 Road Cost Allocation for Europe: Recommendations and open questions. Funded by Sixth Framework Programme. VTI, Stockholm, February, 2009. 43 Eriksson G., Gullne U., Lindvall J. (SMA), Karvonen, T., Saurama A. (CMS), Göthe-Lundgren, M., Mellin A. and Lindberg G. (VTI) CATRIN (Cost Allocation of TRansport INfrastructure cost), Deliverable D10 Allocation of infrastructure cost in the maritime sector. Funded by Sixth Framework Programme. VTI, Stockholm, March, 2009. Lindberg, G (2009) Conclusions and recommendations. Deliverable D12 Funded by Sixth Framework Programme. VTI, Stockholm, June, 2009. Mellin, A., G.Lindberg, R. Karlsson and T. Benz (2009) Development path of Heavy Route systems impact and socio-economic consequences. Deliverable 4.2. Heavy Route Funded by Sixth Framework Programme. VTI, Stockholm, June, 2009. Jan-Eric Nilsson, Roger Pyddoke, Mats Andersson, Fredrik Hansen, Gunnar Isacsson, Gunnar Lindberg, Lena Nerhagen, Infrastrukturpolitik på samhällsekonomisk grund. Bilaga 2 till Trafikverksutredningen SOU 2009:31 Jan-Eric Nilsson och Roger Pyddoke, Höghastighetsjärnvägar - ett klimatpolitiskt stickspår, Rapport till Expertgruppen för miljöstudier, 2009:3 2009:31 Lina Jonsson, Ansvarsnivåer för kollektivtrafik, Bilaga 8 till En ny kollektivtrafik SOU 2009:39 Theses in 2009 Sundberg, M., (2009). Essays on Spatial Economies and Organization, Royal Institute of technology, KTH, Stockholm,Sweden Swärdh, J-E., (2009). Commuting Time Choice and the Value of Travel Time, Örebro University, Swedish Business School at Örebro University. PhD Thesis, Örebro Studies in Economics, ISSN 1651-8896 Publications (scientific papers, proceedings, technical reports etc) in 2008 and late 2007 Ahlberg, J. (2008) Revenues in Discrete Multi-Unit, Common Value Auctions: A Study of Three Sealed-Bid Mechanisms. Working paper 2008:9. Andersson, H. (2007) Private and Public WTP for Safety - A Validity Test, Working Paper 2007:14, VTI, Dept. of Transport Economics. Andersson, H. (2008) Perception of Own Death Risk : A Reassessment of Road-Traffic Mortality Risk,Working Paper 2008:11, VTI, Dept. of Transport Economics. Berdica, K. and Mattsson, L.-G. (2007) Vulnerability: A model-based case study of the road network in Stockholm, 81-106, in Murray, A. and Grubesic, T.H. (eds), Critical Infrastructure: Reliability and Vulnerabilitiy, Springer-Verlag. Börjesson, M. and Eliasson, J. (2007) The value of time of car drivers choosing route: evidence from the Stockholm congestion charging trial. Presenterad vid Transportforum 2008. Börjesson, M. and Eliasson, J., (2008) Train passengers’ valuation of travel time unreliability. Presented at the 2008 European Transport Conference. Eliasson, J. (2007a) Väntat och oväntat i Stockholmsförsöket. I Isaksson (red.): Stockholmsförsöket en osannolik historia. Stockholmia, Stockholm. Eliasson, J. (2007b) Expected and Unexpected in the Stockholm Trial – A personal view. Forthcoming in Gullberg and Isaksson (ed.): The Stockholm Trial. Stockholmia, Stockholm. (eng. 44 version av ovanstående). Eliasson, J. and Höök, B. (2008) The Stockholm congestion charging system. Working paper presented at the 15th World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems, New York. Eliasson, J. och Lundberg, M (2008) Lägesrapport Samhällsekonomi stora objekt. I Redovisning av uppdrag inför åtgärdsplaneringen 2010-2020, Vägverket publikation 2008:115. Eliasson, J., Hultkrantz, L., Nerhagen, L., Smidfelt-Rosqvist, L. (2009a) The Stockholm congestioncharging trial 2006: Overview of the effects. Transportation Research A 43, p. 240-250. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2008.09.001. Eliasson, J., Hultkrantz, L., Nerhagen, L., Smidfelt-Rosqvist, L. (2009b) Introduction to special issue of the Stockholm congestion-charging trial 2006. Transportation Research A 43. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2008.09.001. Eliasson, J. (2009a) A cost-benefit analysis of the Stockholm congestion charging system. Transportation Research A. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2008.11.014. Eliasson, J. (2009b) Lessons from the Stockholm congestion charging trial. Transport Policy doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2008.12.004. Fosgerau, M, Karlström, A (2008) Value of reliability, submitted to Transportation Research Part B. Franklin, J and Karlström, A (2009) Travel time reliability for Stockholm Roadways: Modeling the mean lateness factor. Accepted for publication in Transportation Research Record. Franklin, J., Eliasson, J. and Karlström, A. (2008) Traveller Responses to the Stockholm Congestion Pricing Trial: Who Changed, Where Did They Go, and What Did It Cost Them? In Saleh and Sammer (eds.): Demand Management and Road User Pricing: Success, Failure and Feasibility. Hamilton, C. (2008a) Privacy in Road User Charging. Paper till 15th World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems. Hamilton, C. (2008b) Seven Principles for Regulating Autonomous Road User Charging. Paper till 15th World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems. Jenelius, Erik (2008a) Network structure and travel patterns: Explaining the geographical disparities of road network vulnerability. Journal of Transport Geography, forthcoming. Jenelius, Erik (2008b) Considering the user inequity of road network vulnerability. Journal of Transport and Land Use, forthcoming. Jenelius, E. and Mattsson, L-G. (2008) The vulnerability of raod networks under area-covering disruptions, Paper presented at the INFORMS Conference in Washington October 2008. Jonsson, R.D. (2008a) Analysing sustainable urban transport and land-use: Modelling tools and appraisal frameworks, Doctoral Thesis in Infrastructure, TRITA-TEC-PHD 08-003, Department of Transport and Economics, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm. Jonsson, R.D. (2008b) Analysing sustainability in a land-use and transport system, Journal of Transport Geography, 16: 28-41. Karlström, A, Eliasson, J, Levander, A. (2007-2008), Valuation of marginal travel time savings for long distance business trips, submitted to Journal of Transport Economics and Policy. 45 Karlström, A., 2008, Developing new multivariate generalized extreme value models - theory and some applications, submitted to Transportation Research Part B. Karlström, A, and Franklin, J (2008) Behavioral adjustments and equity effects of congestion pricing: Analysis of morning commutes during the Stockholm Trial. Transportation Research Part A, 43(3):283-296. Mandell, S (2008) Steering the European Transport Greenhouse Gas Emissions under Uncertainty, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Forthcoming. Mandell, S, Steering the European transport greenhouse gas emissions under uncertainty, Working Paper 2008:4, VTI, Dept. of Transport Economics. Mandell, S, Policies towards a more efficient car fleet, Working Paper 2008:12, VTI, Dept. of Transport Economics. Mandell S., Wråke M., Myers E., Holt C. and Burtraw D. (2009), Pricing Strategies under Emissions Trading: An Experimental Analysis, VTI WP 2009:1 [swopec.hhs.se/vtimwps/abs/vtiwps2009_001.htm] Mattsson, L.-G. (2007) Railway capacity and train delay relationships, 129-150, in Murray, A. and Grubesic, T.H. (eds), Critical Infrastructure: Reliability and Vulnerabilitiy, Springer-Verlag. Mattsson, L.-G. (2008) Road pricing: Consequences for traffic, congestion and location, 29-48, in Jensen-Butler, C., Sloth, B., Larsen, M,M, Madsen, B. and Nielsen, O.A. (eds.), Road Pricing, the Economy and the Environment, Springer-Verlag. Swärdh, Jan-Erik (2008a) Is the intertemporal income elasticity of the value of travel time unity?, Working Paper 2008:3, VTI, Available at http://swopec.hhs.se/vtiwps/abs/vtiwps2008_003.htm Swärdh, Jan-Erik (2008b) Hypothetical bias and certainty calibration in a value of time experiment, Working Paper 2008:7, VTI, Available at http://swopec.hhs.se/vtiwps/abs/vtiwps2008_007.htm Vierth, I. och Mellin, A. (2008) Svensk godsstudie baserad på nationell och internationell litteratur. Internationell exposé – persontransporter. Inom uppdraget att kartlägga potentialen för överflyttning av transporter mellan trafikslag. VTI rapport 629. Wärmark, A., Börjesson, M. och Persson, C. (2008) Överflyttning av resor mellan flyg- och tågtrafik möjligheter och hinder. Inom uppdraget att kartlägga potentialen för överflyttning av transporter mellan trafikslag. Weibull, J., Mattsson L.-G. and Voorneveld, M. (2007) Better may be worse: Some monotonicity results and paradoxes in discrete choice under uncertainty, Theory and Decision, vol. 63, pp. 121-151. Zhao, Y., Kockelman, K, Karlström, A. (2008) Welfare Calculations in discrete choice settings, the role of error term correlation, to be submitted. Table 6b External conferences arranged by CTS External conferences arranged by CTS What do we learn from the Stockholm Congestion Charging Trial? 29 May 2007 Session ”Methods and Models in Transport Analysis” At Transport Forum 2008 9-10 January 2008 46 Cost-Benefit Analysis in the infrastructure planning 3 September 2008 High speed rail – Have we got the methods to answer where they are needed? 19 September 2008 Traffic Network Stockholm: The investment planning with special focus on the Stockholm region 10 December 2008 CTS – One year in the service of transport research 15 December 2008 Two sessions at Transport Forum 2009: 8-9 January 2009 CBA methods in the national investment planning Methods and Models in Transport Analysis CTS – Two years in the service of transport research 2 December 2009 Traffic Network Stockholm: Forecasts and CBA In the investment planning 10 December 2009 Current research projects – seminar at the National Transport Adm 30 March 2010 Development of methods and tools for CBAs 7 May 2010 Quality and shortcomings in traffic forecasts 3 June 2010 Table 6c Selected presentations of CTS research at conferences arranged by others than CTS Presentations etc Conference name Infrastructure seminar at Nutek Seminar about freight transports at the National Road Adm, Norsk Petroleuminstitutt Yearly conference 2007, Oslo, Norway Transport Forum: Title/role Participation as experts Presenter Eliasson/Mattsson Participation as expert Lars-Göran Mattsson Date November 2007 December 2007 Experiences from congestion charges in Stockholm Staffan Algers 2007 Effects of the congestion charges 2007 Valuation of business travel time Jonas Eliasson January 2008 The need for special CBA:s in major cities Predicting journey time variability Correlation between road congestion and uncertain travel times Better forecasts of effects from road user charges The value of time of car drivers choosing route Regional Economics and Freight Transports Accessibility and Regional Eliasson/Levander/K arlström Jonas Eliasson Jonas Eliasson Jonas Eliasson Eliasson/Levander Eliasson/Levander/B örjesson Marcus Sundberg Tom Petersen 47 Development in the Skåne region On the estimation of Productivity correlation with micro data Micro economic analyses of Accessibility and Productivity Flexibility of Household Responses to Congestion Pricing: Implications for Equity Valuation of train delays Transport Research Board, Washington Seminar at the Ministry of Industry Western Regional Science Association, Napa Valley Conference Nordiska vägföreningen Seminar Regionforum Östergötland TØI-kurset, Jevnaker, Norway Hearing about goals for the Swedish Transport Policy Spring Meeting of Young Economists, Lille Seminar at the Ministry of Industry Seminar at the port of Stockholm TRA Ljubljana mobile.TUM 2008 – International Conference on Mobility and Transport, München Seminar with delegation from the Dutch Parliament, Seminar with the Region of Skåne Seminar about Bypass Stockholm, BIL Sweden Conference about Public Transport, Road Adm of Norway Seminar about Congestion Charges in Copenhagen Helsinki Summer School Seminar for the Social Democratic party in Stockholm Tom Petersen Tom Petersen Joel Franklin Joel Franklin Eliasson/Börjesson/ Sundbergh Anders Karlström January 2008 Jonas Eliasson January 2008 Value of time in a dynamic microeconomic framework – theory and example from Stockholm congestion charges Pricing Strategies under Emissions Trading: An Experimental Analysis The Congestion Charges in Stockholm The National Investment Planning Experiences from congestion charges in Stockholm Equity in the Transport Policy Anders Karlström February 2008 Welfare Calculations in discrete choice settings, the role of error term correlation Regional Enlargement Svante Mandell Jonas Eliasson Jonas Eliasson February 2008 March 2008 Staffan Algers March 2008 Lars-Göran Mattsson April 2008 Is the Inter-Temporal Income Elasticity of the Value of Travel Time Unity? - Evidence using Swedish Revealed Preference Data Why should public transport be subsidised? Environmental impacts of a freight port in Norvik Analyzing equity effects of congestion charges Overview of the effects of the Stockholm congestion charges Reflecting Equity in a WelfareBased Accessibility Measure Jan-Erik Swärdh April 2008 Jonas Eliasson April 2008 Jonas Eliasson April 2008 Jonas Eliasson April 2008 Joel Franklin April 2008 The Congestion Charges in Stockholm Jonas Eliasson May 2008 The National Investment Planning CBA and effects on climate Jonas Eliasson May 2008 Jonas Eliasson May 2008 The Congestion Charges in Stockholm Jonas Eliasson May 2008 Advice and peer review Jonas Eliasson June 2008 Congestion Charges The Traffic Situation in Stockholm Jonas Eliasson Jonas Eliasson June 2008 June 2008 Jonas Eliasson 48 Conference Nordiska vägföreningen Conference INFRATRAIN Almedalen International Symposium on Travel Demand Management, ViennaSemmering, Austria Seminar at KTH for a Chinese delegation Discrete choice modelling workshop, EPFL IAREP/SABE Word Meeting 2008, Rom SKL Seminar with political working committee INFORMS Annual Meeting Washington Congestion Charges Jonas Eliasson June 2008 The Stockholm congestion charges (keynote speaker) Road network vulnerability analysis (keynote speaker) Financing infrastructure Behavioral Adjustments and Equity Effects of Congestion Pricing Jonas Eliasson June 2008 Lars-Göran Mattsson Gunnar Lindberg Franklin/Karlström July 2008 July 2008 Effects of congestion pricing in Stockholm Valuation of intrusion effects Lars-Göran Mattsson Jonas Eliasson Valuation of travel time Hypothetical bias and certainty calibration in a value of time experiment Future Mandate, Planning and Financing of Infrastructure Maria Börjesson Jan-Erik Swärdh The vulnerability of road networks under area-covering disruptions Jenelius/Mattsson Train passengers’ valuation of travel time unreliability Analysing equity effects of congestion charges Travel Time Reliability for Stockholm Roadways: Modeling the Mean Lateness Factor Hypothetical bias and certainty calibration in a value of time experiment Congestion charges – Real life experiences Future Mandate, Planning and Financing of Infrastructure CBA Methodology Eliasson/Börjesson Privacy in Road User Charging Carl Hamilton Seven principles for regulating autonomous road user charging Future Mandate, Planning and Financing of Infrastructure Forecasts and CBAs in the National Investment Planning Shift from air to rail Carl Hamilton Swedish Freight Study Common Value, Multi-Unit Auctions with Private Signals Comparing Laboratory Experiments With Theory Vierth/Mellin Ahlberg, J Common Value, Multi-Unit Auctions with Private Signals Comparing Laboratory Experiments With Theory Ahlberg, J Gunnar Lindberg ETC Holland Nordic seminar on Road traffic SKL Gatudriftsdagar Malmö Seminar at Ministry of Industry 15th World Congress on ITS SKL Seminar Arlanda SIKA Seminar “The potential for modal shift” M-BEES 2009 Maastricht Behavioral and Experimental Economics Symposium: Theory and Experiments ESA - Economic Science Association August 2008 August 2008 September 2008 September 2008 October 2008 October 2008 Jonas Eliasson Franklin/Karlström Jan-Erik Swärdh Staffan Algers October 2008 Gunnar Lindberg October 2008 Jonas Eliasson November 2008 November 2008 Gunnar Lindberg November 2008 Mattias Lundberg Christer Persson ETC - European Transport Conference December 2008 June 2009 November 2009 October 2009 Accepting charging - a matter of Brundell-Freij, K., 49 WRSA 48th annual meeting ENHR - European Network for Housing Research Transport Forum 2009 Seminar with the Management of the Road Adm Reference group for the National Investment planning Reference group for the National Investment planning Seminar with the national Transport authorities KTH Management Group 4th International trusting the effects? The unexpected "yes!": Explanatory factors behind the positive attitudes to congestion charges in Stockholm Accident externality and vehicle size - evidence from Swedish collision accidents Acceptability of Congestion charging The income elasticity of the value of travel time is not one number Congestion charges in Stockholm Pricing Strategies under Emissions Trading - an experimental analysis Prices and Quantities in a Climate Policy Setting Jonsson, L Eliasson, J., Jonsson, L Climate policy and the Transport sector Analysis of change in car ownership and car use in Sweden CBA in the Investment Planning – an overview Future scenario assumptions with a new climate policy Results from sensitivity analysis of CBA:s Productivity effects of the Öresund bridge Spatial effects on businesses of congestion charges How vulnerable is the road network against area-covering disruptions? Mandell, S Jonsson, L. och Lindberg G. Eliasson, J Maria Börjesson Beser Hugosson, M Mandell, S February 2009 Mandell, S June 2009 January 2009 Better use of CBA – what needs to be done? CBA – summary reflections Can CBAs for rail and road be compared? Who are in favor of and against congestion charges? CBA and value of time for cyclists Trends in travel behavior The use of CBA-methodology Pyddoke R. Lundberg, Mattias Lundberg, Mattias Lundberg, Mattias Petersen, Tom Petersen, Tom Jenelius, Erik Lindberg, G Eliasson, Jonas Eliasson, Jonas Eliasson, Jonas Eliasson, Jonas Maria Börjesson Maria Börjesson Lundberg, Mattias March 2009 Forecasts and CBAs Lundberg, Mattias May 2009 Effects of the Investment plans Lundberg, Mattias September 2009 Plan for development of methods and models Lundberg, Mattias October 2009 Congestion pricing effects with labour market distortions Marginal cost of railway Westin, J 2009 Andersson, M June 2009 50 Transport Economics Conference 4th Kuhmo-Nectar Conference 21st International Symposium on Dynamics of Vehicles on Roads and Tracks Transport Forum 2010 Dinner with the county governor of Sthlm Seminar for the National Transport Adm OBIS project group meeting OBIS National advisory board in Stockholm The Traffic Dep of the City of Sthlm Dutch ministry of Economic Affairs Administrative personnel at KTH Ilmastotalkoot, Helsinki, Finland Students from Chalmers infrastructure wear and tear for freight and passenger trains in Sweden Marginal cost of railway infrastructure wear and tear for freight and passenger trains in Sweden Comparison of railway infrastructure maintenance and renewal costs using engineering and econometric models Andersson, M July 2009 Andersson, M August 2009 January 2010 Co-modality in pracise: Analysis of Present and Future Trends Labor Market Effects from Congestion Taxes Carbon values in Cost Benefit Analysis Myths and Truths about CBA Plan for development of methods and models Use of loan bikes in Sthlm What regions are most vulnerable to road network disruptions and why? Space Syntax – The Architect’s way of measuring accessibility On the differentiation of travel time valuations The national investment plan from a cost-benefit perspective The Swedish Value of Time Study – main results The income elasticity of the value of travel time is not one number. Properties of Internet and Telephone Data Collection Methods in a Stated Choice Value of Time Study Context Can the national travel forecast model SAMPERS forecast demand effects of high speed trains? Sampers - experiences from the Swedish transport investment plans Traffic problems in the region Mellin, A. Lundberg, Mattias March 2010 8 presentations of current research projects Results from Sthlm Various March 2010 Petersen, Tom Results from Sthlm Petersen, Tom Spatial effects on businesses of congestion charges Congestion charges in Stockholm Congestion charges in Stockholm Congestion charges in Stockholm Congestion charges in Stockholm and Gothenburg Petersen, Tom March 2009 Sept 2009 April 2010 April 2009 April 2010 June 2009 Beser Hugosson, M March 2009 Beser Hugosson, M March 2009 Beser Hugosson, M September 2009 March 2010 Westin, J Mandell, S Lundberg, Mattias Eliasson and Lundberg Petersen, Tom Jenelius, Erik Mattsson, LarsGöran Eliasson, Jonas Eliasson, Jonas Maria Börjesson Maria Börjesson Maria Börjesson Maria Börjesson Beser Hugosson, M Beser Hugosson, M 51 VTI, Stockholm University of Minnesota 1st International Conference on Evacuation Modelling and Management, Delft Umeå university KTH President's visit Seminar for the Swedish Road Administration The European Transport Conference ITS World Congress ITS World Congress OECD Round Table Workshop on discrete choice modelling, Lausanne Transportation Research Group, University of Namur, Belgium Scandinavian Research Seminar on Mobility, Transport Demand – Urban Structure and its Planning, Copenhagen Seminar at WSP Study visit at KTH by the Swedish Public Transport Association Study Visit from the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs Study Visit in Strong Research Environments for Administrative Personnel at KTH The 7th International Space Syntax Symposium Symposium on Risk and Vulnerability in Infrastructures Seminar arranged by the National Transport Adm Seminar arranged by Kollektivtrafikant Sthlm The Lissabon University for Technology The National Transport Adm The Skåne Region and the Copenhagen Region OECD – ITF Seminar at Ministry of Industry Sampers for dummies Road network vulnerability: Important links and areas, exposed users Secondary link importance: Links as rerouting alternatives during road network disruptions Beser Hugosson, M Jenelius, Erik March 2010 September 2009 Jenelius, Erik September 2009 Regional variations in the vulnerability of the Swedish road network Road network vulnerability analysis Vulnerability analysis of road networks The cost of Stockholm Congestion Charges revisited Why the EETS Directive will fail and how it can be saved GNSS Metering Association for Road User Charging The cost of Stockholm Congestion Charges revisited A dynamic discrete choice approach for modelling route choice A sampling of alternatives approach for route choice models Research and methodologies at the Department of Transport and Economics at KTH Jenelius, Erik October 2009 Jenelius, Erik December 2009 February 2010 October 2009 Jenelius, Erik Hamilton, Carl Hamilton, Carl Hamilton, Carl Hamilton, Carl September 2009 September 2009 January 2010 Frejinger, Karlström, Fosgerau August 2009 Frejinger, E February 2009 Mattsson, LarsGöran January 2009 Individual/distribution aspects in back-casting Research at the Division of Transport and Location Analysis and CTS Introduction to the Department of Transport and Economics Mattsson, LarsGöran Mattsson, LarsGöran January 2009 Mattsson, LarsGöran March 2009 Transport Research at the Department of Transport and Economics Mattsson, LarsGöran March 2009 Place, Space Syntax and attraction-accessibility Mattsson, LarsGöran June 2009 Transport infrastructure vulnerability research at KTH Mattsson, LarsGöran May 2010 Co-financing from a costeffectiveness perspective Design of public transport on bypass Stockholm The congestion charges in Sthlm The influence of CBAs on investment decisions Are transport forecasts reliable? Eliasson, Jonas May 2010 Eliasson, Jonas April 2010 Eliasson, Jonas April 2010 Eliasson, Jonas March 2010 Eliasson, Jonas March 2010 Lessons from the Stockholm congestion charges CBA as a help for prioritizations Eliasson, Jonas February 2010 January 2010 Eliasson, Jonas February 2009 52 The Swedish Society for Nature Conservation BISEK Congestion charges in Gothenburg Car traffic in transport forecasts Eliasson, Jonas The EU-project VIKING Lessons from the Stockholm congestion charges Economic policy measures Eliasson, Jonas CBAs – what use can we have of them? Travel time variability in CBA, current Swedish practice The Stockholm congestion charges Design of Congestion charges in Gothenburg The need for development of methods and models for CBA Traffic problems and solutions in Stockholm Appraisal in CBA Eliasson, Jonas Seminar arranged by three political parties Hearing at the Swedish Parliament OECD – ITF, Vancouver The French Embassy The City of Gothenburg and the Road Adm The National Rail Adm The City of Stockholm Conference at Örebro University Seminar arranged by three political parties The National Rail Adm Four counties in northern Sweden Global city summit, Abu Dhabi Seminar at WSP Folkpartiet in the Sthlm county The Swedish Society for Urban Planning IQPS Seminar arranged by three political parties Conference arranged by TÖI in Norway IBM Seminar arranged by Bil Sweden The National Rail Adm Discrete choice modelling workshop, EPFL Seminar at the Ministry of Industry 2nd HERGORD Workshop on Valuation of Safety and Travel Time. Degerfors Swedish road administration Swedish road administration Eliasson, Jonas Eliasson, Jonas Eliasson, Jonas Eliasson, Jonas December 2009 December 2009 November 2009 November 2009 November 2009 October 2009 Eliasson, Jonas September 2009 September 2009 September 2009 August 2009 Eliasson, Jonas May 2009 The traffic situation in the large cities CBA for high speed rails CBAs in the national investment planning Congestion charges Eliasson, Jonas May 2009 Eliasson, Jonas Eliasson, Jonas May 2009 May 2009 Eliasson, Jonas April 2009 Congestion charges – a good idea for Gothenburg? Effects of the Stockholm congestion charges The challenges from urbanization with a focus on transports CBAs Important traffic issues in Stockholm Congestion charges – experiences from Sthlm IBM White paper on Transport Eliasson, Jonas March 2009 Eliasson, Jonas March 2009 Eliasson, Jonas March 2009 Eliasson, Jonas Eliasson, Jonas March 2009 March 2009 Eliasson, Jonas March 2009 Eliasson, Jonas Comparison between appraisal in Europe and Sweden Prioritization of train slots from a cost-effectiveness perspective Valuation of travel time Eliasson, Jonas Maria Börjesson February 2009 February 2009 February 2009 August 2008 Why and how does travel behavior change over time The Swedish Value of Time Study – main results Maria Börjesson April 2009 Can the national travel forecast model SAMPERS forecast demand effects of high speed trains? Valuation of travel time variability on public transport. Maria Börjesson/Muriel Hugosson March 2010 Maria Börjesson March 2010 Eliasson, Jonas Eliasson, Jonas Eliasson, Jonas May 2009 53 Table 6d Policy advice activities Policy advice activities Follow-up on the effects of the congestion charges in Stockholm (2009) Participation in a working group following the effects of the congestion charges (Jonas Eliasson and Lars-Göran Mattsson). National investment planning (2007-2009) Project leader and deputy project leader for the project “Forecasts and CBA – large/complicated investments” (Jonas Eliasson and Mattias Lundberg). Congestion charges in Gothenburg (2009) Participation in policy discussions (Jonas Eliasson, Maria Börjesson, Daniel Jonsson and Muriel Hugosson). Inquiry on High-Speed Railways (Swedish Government Official Reports Series 2009:31) Participation in policy discussions (Jonas Eliasson and Mattias Lundberg) A new public transport (Swedish Government Official Reports Series 2009:39) Appendix: Responsibilities for public transport (Lina Jonsson). The forming of the Swedish Transport Administration (Swedish Government Official Reports Series 2009:31) Appendix: Infrastructure policy from a cost benefit perspective (Roger Pyddoke) A cost benefit bases for prioritizing rail traffic (2009) Participation in a study at the National Rail Administration (Jonas Eliasson) Transport 2030 (2009) Participation in a scenario study at the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences (Jonas Eliasson) Valuation study in Norway (2009) Expert in reference group to the Norwegian transport authorities (Jonas Eliasson) Governmental Commission on the potential for modal shift for person and freight transport (2008) Two appendices (Christer Persson, Maria Börjesson, Lina Jonsson, Inge Vierth and Anna Melin). Eurovignette directive (2009) Expert and Swedish delegate to council (Gunnar Lindberg) Australian (National) Transport Commission. (2009-2010) Expert Gunnar Lindberg Table 6e Referee assignments etc Referee assignments, Expert advice etc Researchers at CTS have had referee assignments from journals and conferences such as: Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering Networks and Spatial Economics 54 Nordic Journal of Architectural Research The Annals of Regional Science Transport Reviews Transportation Research A Transportation Research B Transportation Research C Transportation Research D Transportation Research Board International Journal of Sustainable Transportation European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research Environment and Planning A Environmental and Resource Economics Journal of Environmental Economics and Management Journal of Public Administration Journal of Public Transport Transportmetrica Transport Policy Journal of Choice Modelling Accident Analysis and Prevention Journal of Risk and Uncertainty IET Intelligent Transport Systems Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Transport Economics and Policy Public Transport Papers in Regional Science Choice Modeling Conference Johanna Jussila Hammes has made peer review of the report "Carbon dioxide effects from ethanol – state-of-the-art" from the Expert group for environmental studies 2010:1. During 2009 Lars-Göran Mattsson has been Expert in appointing lecturer in transport systems at the University of Linköping Chair in the appointing committee for new professor in groundwater chemistry at KTH Member of the appointing committee for new professor in strategic environmental analysis with emphasis on sustainable city development at KTH Member of the certificate committee for Charlotte Reinholdt Hageback, Luleå Technical University. Member (back-up) of the certificate committee for Han-Suck Song, KTH. During 2009 Jonas Eliasson has been Member of the certificate committee for dissertation of Jan-Erik Swärdh, Örebro University (2009) Member of the certificate committee for dissertation of Dirk van Amelsfort, Technical university at Delft (2009) Innovative Methods program committee member of the European Transport Conference Reader promotion, Stephane Hess h. International activities Table 7 International activities There is frequent collaboration with international researchers through individual networks. Cooperation on an institutional level is described in chapter 3. The Scientific Advisory Board is described in chapter 2. 55 Guest researchers are described in chapter 7. Most visits outside Sweden include giving at least one presentation and are thus described in table 6c. Other visits or foreign visits to the Centre have not been possible to list. i. Financial reports Table 8 Overall Resources available, kSEK, 2007-10-01–2010-12-31 (3 ¼ years) Part Vinnova Nat Road Adm Nat Railroad Adm Nat Publ Trp Agency KTH VTI SIKA WSP JIBS Cash contributions 22 750 6 000 2 000 835 3 000 Sum excluding external 34 585 External 17 576 Sum In-kind 9 000 9 750 3 250 3 250 1 500 26 750 78 911 Table 9a Overall Expenditures from Cash contributions (kSEK) Part Jointly for the Centre KTH-TLA KTH-ToL VTI WSP JIBS External Sum Decided for Sum Spent Spent 2007- spending + Decided 2009 2010 2007-2010 4 100 6 400 100 4 500 0 200 1 200 2 900 3 800 1 500 3 300 16 700 Decided To be for decided Target level spending 2010 2007-2010 after 2010 0 3 500 0 1 400 0 500 0 7 000 13 700 1 600 9 200 900 400 7 000 10 200 1 600 7 800 0 1 000 1 600 1 500 1 600 400 1 800 700 1 100 0 200 200 12 600 29 300 5 300 34 600 4 500 56 Table 9b Overall Expenditures from Internal contributions (kSEK) Decided for Sum Spent Spent 2007- spending + Decided 2009 2010 2007-2010 Part Decided To be for decided Target level spending 2010 2007-2010 after 2010 KTH internal 4 000 3 300 7 300 1 700 9 000 1 700 VTI internal 4 700 3 200 7 900 1 850 9 750 1 200 SIKA internal 1 300 200 1 400 1 850 3 250 0 WSP internal 3 900 400 4 200 - 3 250 0 JIBS internal 100 600 700 800 1 500 400 30 600 20 300 50 900 11 500 61 350 6 100 Sum Table 10 Research Personnel in CTS funded projects CTS office External Jonas Eliasson Andrew Smith Maria Börjesson Carl Hamilton Mattias Lundberg Chris Nash Muriel Hugosson John Quigley Michael Susanne Jarl Lundholm Mogens Per Kågeson Fosgerau Nicholas Ibanez Tommy Lundgren Gerard de Jong JIBS Andreas Stephan Charlie Karlsson Johan Klaesson Martin Andersson KTH-TLA KTH-ToL SIKA WSP VTI Göran Anders Karlström Gerhard Troche Friberg Anders Wärmark Anna Mellin Haris P-O Björn Hårsman Koutsopoulos Hesselborn Christer Anderstig Fredrik Hansen Daniel Jonsson Kjell Jansson Christer Persson Emma Frejinger Leonid Engelson Mahmood Rahmani Tatsiana Aneichyk Dirk van Amelsfort Gunnar Isacsson Erik Jenelius Ioannis Tikoudis Joel Franklin Jonas Westin Kandice Kreamer Fults Fredrik Kopsch Göran Tegner Gunnar Lindberg Jenny Källström Henrik Andersson Joakim Johansson Inge Vierth Karin BrundellFreij Jan-Eric Nilsson Kerstin Pettersson Jan-Erik Swärdh Lars Lundqvist Lars-Göran Mattsson Lena Wieweg Leonid Engelson Joakim Ahlberg Johanna Jussila Hammes Marcus Sundberg Maria Börjesson Lars Hultkrantz Shiva Habibi Mattias Lundberg Lena Nerhagen Staffan Algers Matts Andersson Lina Jonsson Tom Petersen Peter Almström Nicklas Lord Pia Sundbergh Roger Pyddoke Svante Berglund Sara Arvidsson Scherzod Yarmukhamedov Sofia GrahnVoorneveld Stefan Pettersson Svante Mandell Urban Björketun 57 Table 11 Project Expenditures, kSEK No Project name 1 01. Centre management 2007-2008 Sum 1190 3 The importance of income growth for the value of time 4 Auctioning - theory and experiments 5 05. Application HET Qualification 355 355 150 6 Accessibility and productivity from a micro perspective 7 Hypothetical bias in studies of the value of time 560 655 8 Cost-benefit analyses in the National Transport Investment Plan 9 CTS and Climate Policy 10 10. Stability in climate agreements 11 Attitudes to congestion charges 12 The EU's climate and transport policy 13 Risk perception 14 Validity tests of WTP-measurements 2040 480 200 350 180 114 62 15 Mesoscopic traffic assignment and route choice modelling 16 The market for systems for road toll payments 17 Freight model development (prestudy) 18 Highspeedrail - miniconference 19 Challenges to the CBA approach 20 20. Mogens Fosgerau guest researcher 1290 390 200 80 250 300 21 Distribution effects of RP and intra-personal variation 22 A gender perspective in transportation research 23 23. Centre conference 400 250 100 24 Congestion pricing effects with labour market distortions 1130 25 Equity and adaptation aspects on the Stockholm charges 116 Alternative methods for estimating time values for cost benefit analysis 26 in the transport sector 27 Pay As You Speed 28 Fiscal Federalism 445 80 230 Research Exchange program - Risk research Toulouse School of 29 Economics 30 30. Chris Nash Guest researcher 31 31. CBA seminar 32 32. Experiment lab 483 120 80 50 58 33 Climate policies towards the car fleet 34 Procurement of public transport – prestudy 35 Support to ERSA Jönköping 2010 36 One year follow-up 37 37. INFRATRAIN 2009 38 A database for the Öresund region 215 100 300 50 15 190 39 Finalization of various route choice modelling projects 40 Fluctuations in Travel Time Reliability 41 Route choice modelling - in practice 42 Estimation of dynamic route choice models 250 339 215 300 A neuroscientific approach to stated preference - an fMRI study of 43 hypothetical bias 44 Regulation of the market for road user charging 46 46. Andrew Smith Guest researcher 600 482 300 The value of time of car drivers choosing route: evidence from the 47 Stockholm congestion charging trial 48 Equity and Travel choice 475 705 Assessment of long term effects of economic policy instruments on the 49 transport system 1354 50 On the use of “average delay” as a measure of train reliability 1052 51 Cost-benefit analyses in the National Transport Investment Plan 52 Vulnerability analyses of road networks 1740 2100 53 Accessibility and productivity from a micro perspective - continued 54 Regional economy and transports 55 55. SURPRICE coordination support 569 820 816 56 Emission permits trading and innovation incentives 500 57 Empirical Studies of Commuting and the Value of Time 395 Revenues in Discrete Multi-Unit, Common Value Auctions: A Study of 58 Three Sealed-Bid Mechanisms 59 59. Evaluation of disturbance from noise 60 60. Pricing of rail and road noise 61 Testing the vehicle register to support modelling 399 100 100 273 62 The potential for substitution between train and air travel 361 63 Drivers of Changes in Travel Patterns- Stockholm 1986 to 2004 380 59 64 Enhanced analysis of the Swedish Value of Time Study 2007 65 Car ownership and car use 397 500 The interaction of housing, labour markets and transportation – towards an estimable dynamic, overlapping generation, search equilibrium 66 model 1362 67 Further development of the Swedish vehicle fleet model 1350 68 RAILTRAM - improving rail freight transport modelling 69 International Civil Aviation Emissions Trading 70 Accident externality and vehicle size 71 High-speed railway and climate 72 Focus area coordination 73 Application strategic funds 74 Ferry commuting 75 Biofuels production versus forestry 77 Asymmetric information and vehicle insurance 2800 1900 193 380 450 332 28 300 1241 78 Experiences from the Stockholm congestion charges 2006-2009 79 Modelling congesting charging in Stockholm 150 601 Are the experiences from the Stockholm congestion charges 80 transferable? 600 How can the Stockholm congestion charging perform closer to optimal 81 when specific design constraints are relaxed 640 82 Revealed preferences of congestion charging acceptability 84 Commuting time changes over time 85 Centre management 2009 300 397 2989 ADDYS - Theoretical justification for additive and quasi additive travel 86 costs in road networks with uncertain travel time 87 Data for elasticity calculations at Rikstrafiken 88 Simplified model for use at Rikstrafiken 400 60 325 Interpretation of the implications of the latest VoT-study for 89 procurements at Rikstrafiken 90 Prerequisites for commercial traffic 91 Global warming policy papers – revision 92 The external health costs from Transport 50 400 375 393 93 Causal links in congestion charging's equity effects (2nd version) 94 Are economic policy measures efficient? 520 2300 60 95 Freight transport modelling 96 Congestion charges in Göteborg 97 Auctioning of CO2 permits 98 The political economy of biofuels 99 Developing new MEV models 2400 421 1053 750 600 100 Travel time variability, subject to a random bottleneck. 101 Accessibility, new firm location and productivity 477 2040 The long-term benefit of public transport - Case study the Metro of 102 Stockholm 1150 The role of assumptions for the cost-benefit ratio of transport 103 investments 104 Regulating railroads 105 Optimal timetables in CBAs 2800 530 600 106 Multi-source traffic data fusion for monitoring, evaluation, and control 2880 107 Efficient estimation of origin-destination (OD) flows 108 CO2 differentiated port dues 109 Route choice modelling with random link costs 1200 80 395 Biofuels production versus forestry in the presence of lobbies and 110 technological change 110 111 Willingness to pay for sustainable attributes - presentation at WRSA 112 Marknaden för vägavgiftssystem 46 326 113 Frequently asked questions about congestion charging 114 Next generation forecast models - An activity based approach 75 3140 115 Use of, and plans for development, of CBAs in the investment planning 452 116 Enhanced analysis of the Swedish Value of Time Study 2007 530 117 The value of time and external benefits in bicycle cost-benefit analysis 118 Drivers of changes in travel patterns - Extension 119 Centre Management 2010 120 120. Per Kågeson initial contract 121 121. ERSA-CTS-IHH Summer school 122 Dynamic car ownership model - a feasibility study 123 Procured Road and Rail Investments Total 450 480 1471 130 750 490 300 76039 61 Table 12 Related Research Grants Project Cost 08. CBAs in the national investment planning 840 102. The long-term benefit of public transport - Case study the Metro of Stockholm 1 050 103. The role of assumptions for the cost-benefit ratio of transport investments 2 100 104. Regulating railroads 430 105. Optimal timetables in CBAs 600 107. Estimation of OD flows 240 115. Use of, and plans for development, of CBAs in the investment planning 422 120. Per Kågeson initial contract 65 121. ERSA-CTS-IHH Summer school 150 22. A gender perspective in transportation research 250 49. Assessment of long term effects of economic policy instruments on the transport system 1 250 51. Cost-benefit analyses in the National Transport Investment Plan 396 52. Vulnerability analyses of road networks 1 800 54. Regional economy and transports 75 55. SURPRICE 750 62. The potential for substitution between train and air travel 361 69. International Civil Aviation Emissions Trading 1 200 71. High-speed railway and climate 300 72. Focus area coordination 75 78. Experiences from the Stockholm congestion charges 2006-2009 150 79. Modelling congesting charging in Stockholm 600 80. Are the experiences from the Stockholm congestion charges transferable? 600 81. How can the Stockholm congestion charging perform closer to optimal 600 82. Revealed preferences of congestion charging acceptability 30 94. Are economic policy measures efficient? 1 900 95. Freight Transport Modelling 400 96. Congestion charges in Göteborg 421 99. Developing new MEV models 275 Implicit valuation of urban environment 150 Regional co-funding with road pricing 155 Sum projects 17 635 XX. SURPRICE (awaits formal contract) 5 500 XX. TRENOP (rough estimate of share to TLA/ToL/CTS office/VTI 2010-2012) 18 500 Sum total (rounded) 41 500 j. Websites Below, some addresses at websites that are relevant for CTS are listed (some in English and some in Swedish – since information in English is often very limited). CTS: http://www.kth.se/abe/centra/cts?l=en_UK 62 KTH (TLA): http://www.kth.se/abe/inst/tec/avd/tla/transport-och-lokaliseringanalys-tla1.17211?l=en_UK KTH (ToL): http://www.kth.se/abe/inst/tec/avd/tol/om-trafik-logistik-1.17714?l=en_UK VTI (Transport Economy): http://vti.se/templates/Page____3166.aspx WSP (Analysis and Strategy): http://www.wspgroup.se/en/WSP-Sweden/About-WSPSweden/Business-areas-Sweden/WSP-Analysis--strategy/ JIBS: http://www.ihh.hj.se/doc/1172 Transport Policy: http://www.trafa.se/ Swedish Transport Administration: http://www.trafikverket.se/Foretag/Planera-och-utreda/ National Public Transport Agency: http://rikstrafiken.se/Content.aspx?c=10