Energy Future Outlook:
Importance of Renewable Biomass Energy
and Bio-Energy Research
NIU & Growth Dimensions AgTech Initiative: Future of Energy and Agriculture
Belvidere, IL * April 27, 2005
Prof. M. Kostic
Mechanical Engineering
NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY
www.kostic.niu.edu
Energy Future Outlook:
Importance of Renewable Biomass Energy
and Bio-Energy Research
1.37 kW/m2 ·12%  165 W/m2
2000 kcal/day100 Watt
World over 6 billion
2,200 Watt/p
275 Wel /p
USA about 0.3 billion
12,000 Watt/p
1500 Wel /p
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The two things are certain
• (1) the world population and
their living-standard expectations
will substantially increase
(over 6 billion people now,
in 50 years 10-11 billion - energy may double)
• (2) fossil fuels’ economical reserves,
particularly oil and natural gas,
will substantially decrease
(oil may run out in 30-50 years)
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Population & Energy:
Unrestricted Exponential Growth
• About one million years ago our
own species, homo sapiens, first
appeared, strived most of the
history and boomed with
agricultural and industrial
revolution. We are over 6 billion
now.
• Standard of living and energy use
have been growing almost
exponentially due to abundance of
resources.
• The growth will be naturally
restricted with overpopulation
and resource depletion as we
know it.
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Time in
history
Population
in millions
Most of
BC
history
10
due to
hardship
AD 1
300
1750
760
1800
1,000
1950
2,500
2000
6,000
Earth Energy Balance:
• All energy to Earth surface is 99.98 % solar,
0.02% geothermal, and 0.002% tidal-gravitational.
• About 13 TW world energy consumption rate now
(0.007% of solar striking Earth) is about 7 times
smaller than global photosynthesis (all life), the latter is
only 0.05% of total solar, and global atmospheric water
and wind are about 1% of solar.
Source: Basic Research Needs To Assure A Secure Energy Future, ORNL Report, 2003
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The challenges facing us…
Growing
Petroleum
Consumption
Environmental
Pollution
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Economic
Competitiveness
Oil consumption by U.S. transportation
continues to grow
1970
Projected
Actual
Domestic
Production
Shipping
Rail
Off-Road
Air
Heavy
Trucks
Light Trucks
Automobiles
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2002, DOE/EIA-0383(2002), Dec 2001
Military
Passenger
Vehicles
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Million barrels per day
2020
• Transportation accounts for 2/3 of the 20 million barrels of oil our nation uses each day.
• The U.S. imports 55% of its oil, expected to grow to 68% by 2025 under the status quo.
• Nearly all of our cars and trucks currently run on either gasoline or diesel fuel.
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Major fraction of the world’s oil reserves is in
the OPEC countries
Consumption
26%
US
12%
Production
2%
Reserves
7%
OPEC
41%
77%
67%
Rest of
World
47%
21%
0
20
40
60
Percentage of Total
80
100
Source: DOE/EIA, International Petroleum Statistics Reports, April 1999; DOE/EIA 0520, International Energy
Annual 1997, DOE/EIA0219(97), February 1999.
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World automobile population
is expected to grow substantially
Source: OTT Analytic Team
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World Energy Use
2100: 46 TW
2050: 30 TW Hoffert et al Nature 395, 883,1998
25.00
World Energy Demand
total
15.00
industrial
10.00
developing
5.00
ee/fsu
0.00
1970
50
US
1990
2010
40
2030
oil
30
%
TW-yrs
20.00
World Fuel Mix
gas
2001
coal
20
nucl
10
0
1 TWyr=31.56 EJ=5.89 bbl
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renew
85% fossil
EIA Intl Energy Outlook 2004
Energy Challenges: Supply
Hubbert’s Peak
when will production peak?
bbl/yr
50
40
World Oil
Production
30
2% demand growth
2037
production peak
supply falls short
of demand
2016
ultimate recovery:
3000 bbl
20
oil becomes precious
price increases
global tension
10
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
EIA:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/
presentations/long_term_supply/index.htm
1 TWyr = 31.56 EJ = 5.89 bbl
Oil: 30-50 yrs?
gas: beyond oil?
coal: > 200 yrs?
find alternate sources
nuclear
renewable
Distinguish between “Estimated” (above) and “Proven” reserves (next slide)
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World now:
13 TWyr /yr
 410 EJ/yr
About 88 years:
60 coal,
14 oil,
and 14 gas.
Distinguish between “Proven” (above) and “Estimated” reserves
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Energy Challenges: Local/Regional Pollution
the six principal air pollutants
(not including CO2)
origin
secondary
effect
hazard
SOx
impurities in fuel
acid rain
particilates
health,
crops
corrosion
NOx
high T combustion
in air
particulates
ozone,
acid rain
health
CO
incomplete
combustion
health,
reduced O2
delivery
Particulates
combustion
sunlight +
NOx/SOx
health
Pb
chemical industry
health
ground
ozone
sunlight + NOx
+ organics
respiratory
vegetation
acid rain
pollution zones near sources
urban areas, power plants
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So, what are we going to do?
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The energy “difficulties” …
• (1) will be more challenging
than what we anticipate now
• (2) NO traditional solutions
• (3) New knowledge, new technology,
and new living habits and expectations
will be needed
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The renewable biomass energy
and development of
synthetic hydro-carbons …
• The renewable biomass energy (BM) and
development of synthetic hydro-carbons (SynHC)
will be very important if not critical
for substitution of fossil fuels…
• … since they are natural extensions of fossil fuels, the
existing energy infrastructure could be easily adapted
• global CO2 emission will be balanced during
renewable biomass production.
• BM&SynHC particularly promising for
energy storage and use in transportation
to replace fossil fuels,
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The renewable biomass energy
and development of
synthetic hydro-carbons …
… especially considering the Hydrogen facts:
• (1) hydrogen does not exist in nature
as primary energy source
• (2) hydrogen production (from hydrocarbons or water)
is energy inefficient (always net-negative,
energy storage only)
• (3) hydrogen storage and distribution are facing
a host of problems that cannot be economically
resolved with present state of knowledge
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The renewable biomass energy
and development of
synthetic hydro-carbons …
Instead of going ‘against’ the nature
with hydrogen …
H-H
H
H-C-…
H
… we should go ‘along’ with nature
with biomass energy and
development of synthetic hydro-carbons.
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The Hydrogen Economy:
Challenges and Opportunities
George Crabtree
Senior Scientist and Director
Materials Science Division
the hydrogen economy
requires breakthrough
research
Northern Illinois basic
University
to find new materials
processes
November and
5, 2004
incremental advances in the present state of the art
Argonne
Laboratory
willNational
not meet
the challenge
U.S. Department of Energy
A U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Science Laboratory
Operated by The University of Chicago
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about 50%
efficiency
about 20%
efficiency
about 33%
efficiency
about 75%
efficiency
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46% of 6%
=2.8 %
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Biomass and Waste
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Biomass and Biorefinery Summary:
• Biomass is the only sustainable source of
hydrocarbon-based fuels, petrochemicals,
and plastics
• Large national and world-wide biomass
resource base
• Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
• Will diversify and reinvigorate rural economy
• Bio-refineries utilize residue from existing industry
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Energy Future Outlook:
…a probable scenario … in the wake of a short history of fossil fuels’
abundance and use (a bleep on a human history radar screen),
the following energy future outlook is possible…
1. Creative adaptation and innovations, with change of societal and human habits
and expectations (life could be happier after fossil fuels’ era)
2. Intelligent hi-tech, local and global energy management in wide sense
(to reduce waste, improve efficiency and quality of environment and life)
3. Nuclear energy and re-electrification for most of stationary energy needs
4. Cogeneration and integration of power generation and new industry at global scale
(to close the cycles at sources thus protecting environment and increasing efficiency)
5. Energy conservation and regeneration have unforeseen (higher order of magnitude)
and large potentials, particularly in industry
(also in transportation, commercial and residential sectors)
6. Renewable biomass and synthetic hydro-carbons for fossil fuel replacement
(mobile energy, transportation, and chemicals)
7. Advanced energy storage (synthetic fuels, advanced batteries, hydrogen,…)
8. Redistributed solar-related and other renewable energies (to fill in the gap…)
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Thanks (for sharing their presentations with me) to:
Dr. George Crabtree, Materials Science Division
Dr. Romesh Kumar, Chemical Engineering Division
Argonne
National Laboratory
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More information at:
www.kostic.niu.edu/energy
1.37 kW/m2 ·12%  165 W/m2
2000 kcal/day100 Watt
World Prod.
2,200 Watt/p
275 Welec/p
USA Prod.
12,000 Watt/p
1500 Welec/p
www.kostic.niu.edu