China’s Future
Limited by Energy
Terry A. Ring
University of Utah
China’s Past Technological
Leadership
• T’ang Dynasty, Five Dynasties, Sung Dynasty Period
• 618 AD
907 – 960 AD 960-1279 AD
– Printing using movable ceramic type
• Inventor - Pi Sheng in 1040 AD
– 400 years before Gutenberg
– Gun powder
• Inventor - Taoist Alchemists ~600 AD
– Magnetic Compass
• Invented before 1042 AD
– Porcelain
• Invented during T’ang Dynasty
– ~800 years before Meisen (1710)
“changed the whole face and state of things throughout the world,” Francis Bacon, 1561-1626
What about the world today?
• Western Industrial Dominance
– USA, (Canada and Mexico)
– European Union
– Japan
• Building Industrial Strength in Asia
– China
– S. Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, Singapore
2020 and beyond
• China has a chance to be
– Industrial Leadership of the World
– Super Power
• This can happen if China can solve some
problems
World’s Top Ten Problems
for next 50 years
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
ENERGY
WATER
FOOD
ENVIRONMENT
POVERTY
TERRORISM & WAR
DISEASE
EDUCATION
DEMOCRACY
POPULATION
2003
2050
6.3
9-10
R. E. Smalley , Nobel Laureate
Rice University
Billion People
Billion People
World Energy
Millions of Barrels per Day (Oil Equivalent)
300
200
100
0
1860
1900
1940
1980
2020
2060
2100
Source: John F. Bookout (President of Shell USA) ,“Two Centuries of Fossil Fuel Energy”
International Geological Congress, Washington DC; July 10,1985.
Episodes, vol 12, 257-262 (1989).
World Proven OIL Reserves
Nigeria
Mexico
Qatar
2%
3% China
1%
2%
Libya
3%
Proven Oil Reserves
(2000) Saudi Arabia
Other
9%
25%
USA
3%
Russia
5%
Venezuela
8%
Iraq
11%
Iran
9%
Kuw ait
9%
UAE
10%
THE REMAINING OIL RESERVES ARE NOT WHERE WE WANT THEM!
FOR TRANSPORTATION FUELS WE CURRENTLY HAVE NO CHOICE.
Energy Problems
• Today
– Oil is not where the industrial development is.
– Not enough oil for future demand.
• What is Future Energy Mix
Todays’s Reading Assignment
“Hubbert’s Peak” by Kenneth Deffeyes (2001)
• King Hubbert predicted US oil production would peak in
1970.
– It did.
• The same approach predicts World Oil production will
peak within this decade.
– It will.
• The days of cheap energy from oil will then be gone.
(See also Colin Campbell’s interview at
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/INTERVIEWS/COLIN.CAMPBELL/)
World Energy
Millions of Barrels per Day (Oil Equivalent)
300
Gap
200
100
0
1860
1900
1940
1980
2020
2060
2100
Source: John F. Bookout (President of Shell USA) ,“Two Centuries of Fossil Fuel Energy”
International Geological Congress, Washington DC; July 10,1985.
Episodes, vol 12, 257-262 (1989).
Why the Growth in Demand?
• Population increases around the world.
• GDP increases around the world.
• Projections assume improved energy
efficiency.
Population Growth to
10 Billion People in
2050
Per Capita GDP Growth
at 1.6% yr-1
Energy consumption per
Unit of GDP declines
at 1.0% yr -1
What is going to fill the Energy gap?
• Coal
• Nuclear Energy
• Renewable Energy
–
–
–
–
Solar
Wind
Geothermal
Biomass Combustion
The ENERGY REVOLUTION
(The Terawatt Challenge)
50
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2050
45
2003
40
14 Terawatts
35
210 M BOE/day
30
30 -- 60 Terawatts
450 – 900 MBOE/day
25
20
0.5%
15
5
20st Century = OIL
21st Century = ?? China’s Problem
r,
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The Basis of Prosperity
Fu
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io
n
Ga
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Co
al
0
Oi
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Source: Internatinal Energy Agency
Bi
om
as
H
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So
yd
ro
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w
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ot
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Fi
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G
al
Co
O
il
10
Projected Demand for Carbon-Free
Energy
• M.I. Hoffert et. al., Nature, 1998, 395, 881, “Energy
Implications of Future Atmospheric Stabilization of CO2 Content”
Possible Sources of Carbon-Free
Energy
• M.I. Hoffert et. al., Science, 2002, 298, 981,
“Advanced Technology Paths to Global Climate Stability: Energy for a
Greenhouse Planet”
Energy Demand & Source
(in Terawatts)
TW
million BOE/day
50
40
-- 600
30
-- 400
20
-- 200
10
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
YEAR
Source: M.I. Hoffert et. al., Nature, 1998, 395, 881,
2080
2100
PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCES
Alternatives to Oil
•
•
•
•
•
Conservation / Efficiency
Hydroelectric
Biomass
Wind
Wave & Tide
------
•
•
Natural Gas
Clean Coal
-- sequestration?, cost?
-- sequestration?, cost?
•
•
Nuclear Fission
Nuclear Fusion
-- radioactive waste?, terrorism?, cost?
-- too difficult?, cost?
•
•
•
•
Geothermal HDR
Solar terrestrial
Solar power satellites
Lunar Solar Power
-----
not enough
not enough
not enough
not enough
not enough
cost ?
cost ?
cost ?
cost ?
Solar Cell Land Area Requirements
165,000 TW
of sunlight
hit the earth
every day
3 TW
20 TW
Graphic
from
Nate Lewis
Cal Tech
Solar Cell Land Area Requirements
8 Boxes at 3.3 TW Each
Sun-Moon-Beam-Rectenna
Solar Power -> Lunar BaseS -> Power BeamS -> Earth ReceiverS
KEY PROMOTER:
DAVID CRISWELL
( Institute of Space Systems Operations, University of Houston)
≥ 20 TWe from the Moon
14 Enabling Nanotech Revolutions
1. Photovoltaics -- a revolution to drop cost by 10 to100 fold.
2. H2 storage -- a revolution in light weight materials for pressure tanks ,
and/or a new light weight, easily reversible hydrogen chemisorption system
3. Fuel cells -- a revolution to drop the cost by nearly 10 to 100 fold
4. Batteries and supercapacitors -- revolution to improve by 10-100x for
automotive and distributed generation applications.
5. Photocatalytic reduction of CO2 to produce a liquid fuel such as methanol.
6. Direct photoconversion of light + water to produce H2
7. Super-strong, light weight materials to drop cost to LEO, GEO, and later the
moon by > 100 x, to enable huge but low cost light harvesting structures in
space; and to improve efficiency of cars, planes, etc.
8. Nanoelectronics to revolutionize computers, sensors and devices.
14 Enabling Nanotech Revolutions
9.
High current cables (superconductors, or quantum conductors) with which
to rewire the electrical transmission grid, and enable continental, and even
worldwide electrical energy transport; and also to replace aluminum and
copper wires essentially everywhere -- particularly in the windings of electric
motors (especially good if we can eliminate eddy current losses).
10.
Thermochemical catalysts to generate H2 from water that work efficiently at
temperatures lower than 900 C.
11.
CO2 mineralization schemes that can work on a vast scale, hopefully starting
from basalt and having no waste streams.
12.
Nanoelectronics based Robotics with AI to enable construction maintenance
of solar structures in space and on the moon; and to enable nuclear reactor
maintenance and fuel reprocessing.
13.
NanoMaterials/ coatings that will enable vastly lower the cost of deep
drilling, to enable HDR (hot dry rock) geothermal heat mining.
14.
Nanotech lighting to replace incandescent and fluorescent lights
To Do this Science
•
•
•
•
•
Need Scientists
Need Engineers
Need Creative Ideas
Need Laboratories and Equipment
Need Funding
Ph.D. Degrees in Physics
as a Percentage of GDP
0.05
The Sputnik
Generation
Percent
0.04
We Need a New
Sputnik Event to
inspire US citizens into
the Physical Sciences
and Engineering.
0.03
0.02
0.01
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
GDP is expressed in constant 1996 dollars (in million)
Source: American Institute of Physics & National Science Board,
Science and Engineering Indicators, 2002.
Physical Scientist Production in the US is not keeping up with GDP
even though the physical sciences are the basis of most wealth creation.
The People Problem
Number of Physics Ph.D. Degrees Awarded in the U.S.
1800
1600
Number of Ph.D.s
1400
1200
1000
Sputnik
800
600
End of WW II
400
200
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Year
TOTAL
U.S. Citizens
Permanent Visa
Temporary Visa
Doctoral Sciences & Engineering Degrees
18000
Asians in Asian Institutions
16000
Number of Degrees Granted
14000
12000
All nationalities in US Institutions
10000
8000
US citizens in US Institutions
6000
4000
Asians in US Institutions
2000
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Source: Science and Engineering Doctorate Awards, 1996 and 2000, NSF; Science and Engineering Indicators,
NSB, 2002
Sciences = Physics, chemistry, astronomy, earth, atmospheric, and ocean sciences
Engineering = Aeronautical, astronautical, chemical, civil, electrical, industrial, material, metallurgical, and mechanical.
By 2010, if current trends continue,
over 90% of all physical scientists and engineers in the world
will be Asians working in Asia. China is doing this right.
Number of degrees granted (in
thousand)
Ph.D. Degrees in Physical Science and
Engineering
30
25
Asian Citizens
20
15
10
U.S. Citizens
5
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
YearNSF, 2001.
Sources: Science and Engineering Doctorate Awards,
Science and Engineering Indicators, NSB, 2002.
Sciences = Physics, chemistry, astronomy, earth, atmospheric, and ocean sciences
Engineering = Aeronautical, astronautical, chemical, civil, electrical, industrial, material,
metallurgical, and mechanical.
2005
The biggest single challenge for the next few decades:
ENERGY
for 1010 people
•
. At
MINIMUM we need 10 Terawatts (150 M BOE/day)
from some new clean energy source by 2050
•
For worldwide peace and prosperity we need it to be cheap.
•
We simply can not do this with current technology.
•
We need people to enter Physical Science and Engineering as they
did after Sputnik.
•
Inspire a sense of MISSION
( BE A SCIENTIST
SAVE THE WORLD )
• We need to find NEW ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES
Tomorrow’s Reading Assignment
“The Hydrogen Economy: The Next Great Economic
Revolution” by Jeremy Rifkin
(Tarcher/Putnam, 2002)
H2 is not a primary energy source.
But, after natural gas, it probably will be
our future transportation fuel
and energy storage medium.
(also check out http://www.eere.energy.gov/ )