Beyond Moore’s Law
(and the web):
What’s next?
Nets Everywhere
http://research.microsoft.com/~gbell/pubs.htm
Gordon Bell
Bay Area Research Center
Microsoft Corporation
Copyright Gordon Bell
Outline… pervasive computing from in
body to world scale







Technology basis
On, in, and around body…
Mobility: essential for people, phone build out
Storing everything you’ve ever…
Home, personal, and media stores
Scalable systems: what is central vs personal?
.net: what does it mean?
– Ease of building reliable, scalable, secure,
transaction & streaming apps
– .bCentral… creating on-line presence
Copyright Gordon Bell
Some ranked, important technology
Fortune
 Bluetooth
 Voice control of xx
 XML
 Peer-to-peer as in
Napster or Gnutella
Network Computing
 802.11b
 Bluetooth
 Broadband
 Directory Services
 Voice over IP
 IPv6
 Wave Div. Multiplex
 SAN & Fiber Chan.
 ASP
Copyright Gordon Bell
 QOS
Technologies
Copyright Gordon Bell
Moore’s Law



Performance/Price doubles every 18
months
100x per decade
Progress in next 18 months
= ALL previous progress
–
–

New storage = sum of all past storage
New processing = sum of past processing.
E. coli double ever 20 minutes!
15 years ago
Copyright Gordon Bell
Desktop-desktop @ 1 gbps
http://research.
microsoft.com/
~gray/papers/
Win2K_1Gbps.doc
Copyright Gordon Bell

500 mips System On A Chip
for 10$
486 now 7$
233 MHz ARM for 10$ system on a chip
http://www.cirrus.com/news/products99/news-product14.html
AMD/Celeron 266 ~ 30$

In 5 years, today’s leading edge will be
–
–
–
–

System on chip (cpu, cache, mem ctlr,
multiple IO)
Low cost
Low-power
Have integrated IO
High end is 5 BIPS cpus
Copyright Gordon Bell
Ubiquitous 10 GBps SANs
in 5 years

1Gbps Ethernet are reality now.
–

Also FiberChannel ,MyriNet, GigaNet,
ServerNet,, ATM,…
10 Gbps x4 WDM deployed now (OC192)1 GBps
–
3 Tbps WDM working in lab
In 5 years, expect 10x,
progress is astonishing
 Gilder’s law:
Bandwidth grows 3x/year

120 MBps
(1Gbps)
http://www.forbes.com/asap/97/0407/090.htm
80 MBps
40 MBps
5 MBps
20 Mbsp
Copyright Gordon Bell
Bell’s Evolution Of
Computer Classes
Log price
Technology enables two evolutionary paths:
1. constant performance, decreasing cost
2. constant price, increasing performance
Mainframes (central)
Mini
WSs
PCs (personals)
Handheld…
Time
Appliances
1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .8
1.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62
Platform evolution:
What do they do that’s useful?
How do they communicate?
Copyright Gordon Bell
Everything cyberizable will be
in Cyberspace and covered by
a hierarchy of computers!
Continent
World
Body
Region/
Cars…
phys. nets
Intranet
Home…
Campus buildings
Fractal Cyberspace: a network
of … networks of … platforms
Cyberspace: one, two or three
networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020
Data
Telephony
Television
Or will we just
Copyright Gordon Bell
have gateways?
In a decade we can/will have:

more powerful personal computers
–
–
–
–

adequate networking????
–
–



processing 10-100x
4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper
Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays
low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use
ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs
Competitive wireless networking
One chip, networked platforms including light
bulbs, cameras everywhere, etc.
Several well-defined platforms that compete with
the PC for mind (time) and market share
watch, pocket, body implant, home
Inevitable, continued cyberization… the
challenge… interfacing platforms and people.
IP On Everything
Copyright Gordon Bell
In body, on body, and around
body… how do they evolve?
Copyright Gordon Bell
Your
husband
just died,
… here’s
his black
box
Copyright Gordon Bell
M
e
d
r
o
n
I
c
Copyright Gordon Bell
Audio, pix, T, P, ECG,
location, physiological
parameters…
1 GB
Copyright Gordon Bell
1976: 6 oz. Watch,
manual size > watch size
Copyright Gordon Bell
Casio
GPS
Watch
Copyright Gordon Bell
Steve Mann
in
Cyberspace
MIT c1995
Copyright Gordon Bell
Wearable PC
c2000
Copyright Gordon Bell
Copyright Gordon Bell
The mobile network:
key to personal use
Copyright Gordon Bell
Wirelessness and mobility…


MMDS & LMDS… very likely non-starters
(bits will come via our installed Cu & new fiber)
The crowded 2.4 GHz band
–
–
–
–
–

Portable phones: the first, noisy settlers
802.11b (11 Mbit Ethernet LAN) homesteading
HomeRF (Intel’s misguided effort at a home LAN)
Bluetooth… see the new world. How can 2,000
companies be wrong?
802.11a 50 Mbps LAN (TBD)
GSM & CDMA 2&3 G services…
–
Bets as the next Internet wave
Copyright Gordon Bell
Sony
Personal IT
Television
•10” Touch screen
•802.11b connect
•TV
•Internet connect
•Picture frame
•32cm x 20cm
•1.5 Kg
Copyright Gordon Bell
2.0
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.1
0
The evolution of
wireless data
standards…
good news.
UMTS
2Mbps
EDGE
384kbps
Bad news…
too many, GPRS
115kbps
they lie!
HSCSD
Circuit data 57.6kbps
<9.6kbps
Copyright Gordon Bell
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
GPRS Evolution
Copyright Gordon Bell
Internet Industry (circa 1999)
Courtesy of Sheridan Forbes
Content
Syndication
$2B+ **
Content Syndicators
Internet Services
$170B*
Infrastructure
$171B*
Personal/Employee Data
Access
Web Hosting
Applications & Middleware
Copyright
Gordon Bell
Computers & Operating Layer
Software
Network Hardware/Protocols
The Next Convergence
POTS connects to the Web
a.k.a. Phone-Web Gateways
Web Server
PSTN
Voice to WEB
Bridge
The
Web
DataBase
Copyright Gordon Bell
Cyber All: using on body
computers to record and
recall it all
Copyright Gordon Bell
Storing all we’ve read, heard, & seen
Human data-types
read text, few pictures
/hr
200 K
/day (/4yr)
2 -10 M/G
/lifetime
60-300 G
speech text @120wpm
speech @1KBps
43 K
3.6 M
0.5 M/G
40 M/G
15 G
1.2 T
stills w/voice @100KB
200 K
2 M/G
60 G
video-like 50Kb/s POTS
video 200Kb/s VHS-lite
22 M
90 M
.25 G/T
1 G/T
25 T
100 T
video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G
20 G/T
1P
Copyright Gordon Bell
Character of Cyber All Use
User
Context /
Use(t)
Personal
(ambiance,
entertainment,
finance, etc.)
Professional
(work related)
Archival Documents, photos and Books, papers,
reference documents
(historical photo albums, music,
video memory-aid,
memory-aid and
reference)
entertainment, medical
history, progeny
Working Documents, email,
(daily use) photos, CDs, video
communication,
ambiance,
entertainment, financial
records
reference
Documents, email
content for profession
use to communication
Copyright Gordon Bell
My Mbytes
What
Archival and working files
Scanned files with Tiff and PDF
GB books (4 encoded)
Photos Digital
Photos albums, pictures, slides
Mail
GB Videos (lectures, 8mm)
CDs stored as mp3 16KBps
Files Mbytes
4708
729
2897 4665
2027
494
997
158
1430
960
8
236
20 4000
150 8640
Copyright Gordon Bell
12237 19882
Home Networks
DSL, etc. input
Servers:
•Hold & deliver
audio, photos, video
•Encode TV content
Home IP network
Computers:
•Control, get content C.srv
from web, servers
Monitors: HDTV
C
C
C
Monitor
Rec/
AMP
HDTV
broadcast
TV-sets: receive
encoded & CATV
content
TVset
CATV
Dist
Copyright Gordon Bell
Tuner
CATV Network
PCTV a.k.a. MilliBillg
Using PCs to drive large screens
e.g. tv sets, Plasma Panels
Gordon Bell
Jim Gemmell
Bay Area Research Center
Microsoft Research
Copyright Gordon Bell
Copyright 1999 Microsoft Corporation
Copyright Gordon Bell
Copyright Gordon Bell
When will we have smart rooms?







Life-sized displays for interaction
- and for being anywhere!
Cameras that recognize people
Mics and Speech based interface
Total surround sound
One IP net vs. four (data/a/v/phone)
Coupled to all power, data, audio, and
video/television networks
Interval Research developed a technology
to track individuals in stores!
Scalable Systems:


What is central,
distributed (scaled) at a central site, or
personal?
Scalaing beyond a single facility?
Copyright Gordon Bell
High Performance Computing
Copyright Gordon Bell
Bell Prize and
Future Peak
Tflops (t)
1000
100
10
*IBM
Petaflops
study
target
1
NEC
0.1
CM2
0.01
0.001
XMP
NCube
0.0001
1985
1990
1995
2000
Copyright Gordon Bell
2005
2010
Modern scalable switches …
also hide a supercomputer
(converging switching,
computing, and storing?)
Scale from <1 to 120 Tbps
 1 Gbps ethernet switches scale to
10s of Gbps, scaling upward
 SP2 scales from 1.2 - 40 tera-ops

Copyright Gordon Bell
Interesting “cluster” in a cabinet

366 servers per 44U cabinet
–
–
–



Single processor
2 - 30 GB/computer (24 TBytes)
2 - 100 Mbps Ethernets
~10x perf*, power, disk, I/O per cabinet
~3x price/perf
Network services… Linux based
Gordon Bell
*42, 2 processors, 84 Ethernet, Copyright
3 TBytes
GB with NT, Compaq, & HP cluster
Copyright Gordon Bell
Top 10 tpc-c
Top two Compaq systems are:
1.1 & 1.5X faster than IBM SPs;
1/3 price of IBM
1/5 price of SUN
Copyright Gordon Bell
Clusters, the Grid, Napster,
and Gnutela: going beyond



Clusters allow build your own system of any
size
The Grid has provided facilities, like .NET for
computers to communicate, and share
resources (programs & data).
Seti@home:
–
–
–
–
–
Scan 30% of the Northern sky every 6 mos.
Get 50 GB/day
2 million computers
15 tera-flops
Copyright Gordon Bell
417 exa-flops delivered over
The Grid

GRID was/is an exciting concept …
–
–

They can/must work within a community,
organization, or project. What binds it?
“Necessity is the mother of invention.”
Taxonomy… interesting vs necessity
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Cycle scavenging and object evaluation
(e.g. seti@home, QCD, factoring)
File distribution/sharing aka IP theft
(e.g. Napster, Gnutella)
Databases &/or programs and experiments
(astronomy, genome, NCAR, CERN)
Workbenches: web workflow chem, bio…
Single, large problem pipeline… e.g. NASA.
Exchanges… many sites operating together
Transparent web access aka load
balancing
Copyright
Gordon Bell
Facilities managed PCs operating as cluster!
.Net… shifting from client to server



Beyond Browsing: Computer can use the
web. Human accessible services can be
accessed by other computers on the web.
Directory services: e.g. UDDI, Terraserver
XML is the core
–
–
–

Widely accepted open, naming standard
Universal data exchange enable distributed apps
Enables agents
Supports all types of devices
Copyright Gordon Bell
A natural evolution
Copyright Gordon Bell
Copyright Gordon Bell
The End
Copyright Gordon Bell
Things get cheaper: ala
Christiansen & Microprocessors
Copyright Gordon Bell
Was Digital a Victim of
Innovator’s Dilemma?
Copyright Gordon Bell
Exponential change of 10X per
decade causes real turmoil!
100000
10000
8 MB
1 MB
Timeshared
systems
1000 256 KB
100
$K
10
64 KB
16 KB
1
0.1
0.01
1960
Single-user
systems
1970
1980
Copyright Gordon
Bell
1990
2000
VAX Planning Model 1975:
It was very hard to believe it

The model was very good
–
1978 timeshared $250K VAXen
cost about $8K in 1997!
– Minicomputers stayed at the 100K-1M price
SUN Microsystems exploited this.

Costs declined > 20%
–


users get more memory than predicted
Single user systems didn’t come down
Gordon Bell
as fast, unless you considerCopyright
PDAs
VAX ran out of address bits!
Was Digital a Victim of
Innovator’s Dilemma?






Absolutely NOT!
Otherwise HP, IBM would have failed
and SUN wouldn’t have replaced DEC
as the minicomputer supplier.
IBM AS400 (mini), the most profitable
computer every built
Miss- understanding the industry
Destroying its channels
Out of control… billion buck boners
Copyright Gordon Bell