Beyond Moore’s Law
The best way to predict the
future is to invent it. --Alan Kay
Gordon Bell
Bay Area Research Center
Microsoft Corporation
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Beyond Moore’s Law


Just FCB (faster, cheaper, better)…
COTS will soon mean consumer off the shelf
Moore’s Law and technology progress likely to
continue for another decade for:
processing, memory, storage, LANs, WANs




System-on-a chip of interesting sizes will
emerge to create 0 cost systems
Any displacement technology is unlikely
… Carver Mead’s Law c1980
A technology takes 11 years to get established
On the other hand, we are on Internet time!
No DNA, molecular, or quantum computers, or
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
new stores
Beyond Moore’s Law Results







Is the Internet aka www.everything?
Moore’s Law to get cheaper, one chip
systems that increase portability, ubiquity,
etc.
Paper-competitive Screens
Disks of 1 TB
Wireless for ubiquity; including GPS
Bridges to television
Bridges to PSTN for phones, PDAs, etc.
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Beyond Moore’s Law Results





The more uniform the system,
the more attractive it is for developers to produce
many varieties of low cost apps
The more uniform the system,
the more susceptible they are to viruses
Change will be due to ubiquity of computing
brought about by networking
PLUS
Interesting, new platforms that interface use/users
–
–
–
–
When can we speak to these computers?
Sensors e.g. cameras of all types
GPS and direction (pointing)
MEMS & Biochips in particular
Copyright
ThereGordon
are many
other
Bell & Jim
Gray
laws and Computing
forces, beyond Laws
Moore’s Law that determine IT
Big event of 1999: massive
infusion of venture capital





>$3 Billion/quarter (1/3 for Internet).
…Esprit $3B/3 yrs
Capital is pulling people from research.
Product development beats research if you
have an idea what you’re looking for
Little technology. Apps development.
1960-2000: shift from central to distributed
back to fully distributed computing
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Forecast of corp web-enabled
expenditures
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
In a decade we can/will have:

more powerful personal computers
–
–
–
–

adequate networking????
–
–



processing 10-100x
4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper
Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays
low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use
ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs
Competitive wireless networking
One chip, networked platforms including light
bulbs, cameras everywhere, etc.
Some well-defined platforms that compete with the
PC for mind (time) and market share
watch, pocket, body implant, home
Inevitable, continued cyberization… the
challenge… interfacing platforms and people.
What if could or when can we
store everything we’ve:
read/written,
heard, and
seen?
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Storing all we’ve read (written), heard
(listened to), & seen (presented)
Human data-types
read text, few pictures
/hr
200 K
/day (/4yr)
2 -10 M/G
/lifetime
60-300 G
speech text @120wpm
speech @1KBps
43 K
3.6 M
0.5 M/G
40 M/G
15 G
1.2 T
video-like 50Kb/s POTS
video 200Kb/s VHS-lite
22 M
90 M
.25 G/T
1 G/T
25 T
100 T
video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G
20 G/T
1P
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
High Performance Computing
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
1000
100
10
Bell Prize and
Future Peak
Tflops (t)
1
*IBM
Petaflops
study
target
NEC
0.1
CM2
0.01
0.001
XMP
NCube
0.0001
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
1985
1990
1995
Computing
2000
2005 Laws
2010
Computer types
-------- Connectivity-------WAN/LAN
Netwrked
Supers…
SAN
VPPuni
DSM
SM
NEC super
NEC mP
Cray X…T
(all mPv)
Clusters
GRID
Legion
T3E
SGI DSM
Mainframes
Condor
SP2(mP)
clusters &
Multis
BeowulfNOW
SGI DSM WSs PCs
NT clusters
High Performance Computing






Supers we knew are Japanese;
scalability & COTS in… but you have to roll
your own else pay the Unix & proprietary taxes
Beowulf is $14K/TB ( 6 x 4 x 40 GB)
IBM 4000R 1 rack: 2x42 500Mhz processors, 84
GB, 84 disks (3TB @36GB/disk)
$420K … still cheaper than the “big buys”
$10-20K/node for special purpose vs
$2K for a MAC
EMC, IBM at $1 million/TB; vs $14K
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Everything cyberizable will be
in Cyberspace and covered by
a hierarchy of computers!
Continent
World
Body
Region/
Cars…
phys. nets
Intranet
Home…
Campus buildings
Fractal Cyberspace: a network
of … networks of … platforms
Cyberization: interface to all
bits and process information

Coupling to all information and
information processors
 Pure bits e.g. printed matter
 Bit tokens e.g. money
 State: places, things, and people
 State: physical networks
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Bell’s law of computer class
formation to cover Cyberspace




New computer platforms emerge
based on chip density evolution
Computer classes require new
platforms, networks, and cyberization
New apps and content develop
around each new class
Each class becomes a vertically
disintegrated industry based on
hardware and software standards
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Bell’s Evolution Of
Computer Classes
Log price
Technology enables two evolutionary paths:
1. constant performance, decreasing cost
2. constant price, increasing performance
Mainframes (central)
Mini
WSs
PCs (personals)
Handheld
Time 1/1.26 = .8 ??
1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade;
1.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62
Platform evolution:
What do they do that’s useful?
How do they communicate?
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Price, performance, and class of
various goods & services
Computer price = $10 x 10 class#
Computer weight = .05 x 10 class#
Car price = $6K x 1.5 class #
Transportation artifact prices =
k x $10 type (shoes,...cars,... trains,... ICBMs)
French Restaurants(t='95) =
f(ambiance, location) x $25 x 1.5 stars
Bell’s Ten+ Computer Price Tiers
1$:
embeddables e.g. greeting card
10$:
wrist watch & wallet computers
100$:
pocket/ palm computers
1,000$:
portable computers
10,000$:
personal
computers (desktop)
•
100,000$:
departmental computers (closet)
1,000,000$:
site computers (glass house)
10,000,000$: regional computers (glass castle)
100,000,000$: national centers
1,000,000,000$: the grid
Super server: costs more than $100,000
“Mainframe”: costs more than $1 million
an array of processors, disks, tapes, comm ports
On body and in body
networks
Third wearables conference
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Libretto,
.5mm
Not shown:
ECG;
PCS; Pilot
GPS;
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Compass;
altimeter
Libretto PS,
Ricoh Camera;
Swiss Army
Knife
Computing Laws
22 years ago: 6 oz. Watch,
manual size > watch size
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Audio, pix, T, P, ECG,
location, physiological
parameters…
1 GB
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Steve Mann
in
Cyberspace
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
CMU wearable computers
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
M
e
d
r
o
n
I
c
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Your
husband
just died,
… here’s
his black
box
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
When will we have smart rooms?






Reasonable sized displays or panel
for interaction
Cameras that can recognize various
people
Mics and Speech based interface
Speakers
Coupled to all power, data, audio, and
video/television networks
Interval Research has a product to
track individuals in stores!
Or be completely covered by
a smart world
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
450 Old Oak Ct,
Los Altos, CA
Webcams
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Webcam of Hospital in Sweden
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Economics-based laws
determine the market







As industries increase, they become horizontal
Demand: doubles as price declines by 20%
Learning curves: 10-15% cost decline with 2X units
Nathan’s Laws of Software -- the virtuous circle
Bill’s Law for the economics of PC software
Linus’s Law for software… it is free plus support
Sarnoff & Metcalf Laws for the “value of a network”
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Computer Industry 1995

Consult
Andersen, EDS, KPMG, Lante, etc.

Apps
Comshare, D&B, PeopleSoft, SAP

Apps
Microsoft, Lotus, WordPerfect, etc.

Dbases
Informix, Ingres, Oracle, Sybase,etc.

OS

Network

Periph

IBM, Compaq, DEC, Apple, many others
Computers

Intel, AMD, Motorola, others
Micros
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws

Solutions EDS, FDC, BTG, API, DataFocus, HFSI
Microsoft, Apple, Sun, Novell
Novell, Microsoft, Banyan
HP, Canon, Lexmark, Seagate
Future Telecom Industry
Applications
Ericsson, Aspect, Nortel, Octel, others
Applications
Microsoft, Delrina, many others
Databases
OS
Informix, Microsoft, Oracle, Sybase, others
Microsoft, Apple, Sun, Novell, LINUX
Switching
Ericsson, Nortel, Bay, 3Com, Fore, others
Computers
Compaq, DEC, Dell, IBM, many others
DSP
Processors
Dialogic, NMS, Rhetorex, others
Intel, AMD, Motorola, others
Internet Industry (circa 1999)
Courtesy of Zindigo Ventures
Content
Syndication
$2B+ **
Content Syndicators
Internet Services
$170B*
Personal/Employee Data
Access
Web Hosting
Applications & Middleware
Computers & Operating Layer Software
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Infrastructure
Network Hardware/Protocols
$171B*
Nathan’s Laws of software
1. Software is a gas. It expands to fill the
container it is in
2. Software grows until it becomes limited by
Moore’s Law
3. Software growth makes Moore’s Law
possible
4. Software is only limited by human ambition
and expectation
…GB: and our ability to cyberize
I.e. encode
Computing
Laws
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Software Economics: Bill’s Law
Price =



Fixed_cost
Units
+
Marginal _cost
Bill Joy’s law (Sun):
don’t write software for <100,000 platforms
@$10 million engineering expense, $1,000 price
Bill Gate’s law:
don’t write software for <1,000,000 platforms
@$10M engineering expense, $100 price
Examples:
–UNIX
versus Windows NT: $3,500 versus $500
–Oracle versus SQL-Server: $100,000 versus $6,000
–No spreadsheet or presentation pack on UNIX/VMS/...

Commoditization of base software and hardware
The Virtuous Economic Cycle
that drives the PC industry
Standards
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Linus’s Law:
Linux everywhere







Software is or should be free
All source code is “open”
Everyone is a tester
Everything proceeds a lot faster when
everyone works on one code
Anyone can support and market the
code for any price
Zero cost software attracts users!
All the developers write lots of code
Sarnoff’s Law

The value of a network is proportional to
the number of its users
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Metcalf’s Law
Network Utility = Users2

How many connections can it
make?
–
–
–
–

1 user: no utility
100,000 users: a few contacts
1 million users: many on Net
1 billion users: everyone on Net
That is why the Internet is so “hot”
–
Exponential benefit
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
The virtuous cycle of bandwidth
supply and demand
Increased
Demand
Increase Capacity
(circuits & bw)
Standards
Create new
service
Telnet & FTP
EMAIL
Lower
response time
WWW
Audio
Voice!
Video
What is the value of combined network
when television, telephone, and hand
held web devices are added?
How do you build
a home network infrastructure,
platforms, and
interface to uses
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Another big bang?
Internet to TV and audio:
The Net, PC meet the TV
“milliBill”
Home
CATV
Video
capture
PC broadcasts
are mixed into
home CATV in
analog and/or
MPEG digital
Settop
box
Analog/digital cable distribution
Ethernet Home network
Basic ideas:
1. PC records or plays
thru video cable
channels.
2. PC “broadcasts” art
images, webcams,
presentations,
videos, DVDs, etc.
3. Ethernet not cable?
PCTV a.k.a. MilliBillg
Using PCs to drive large screens
e.g. tv sets, Plasma Panels
Gordon Bell
Jim Gemmell
Bay Area Research Center
Microsoft Research
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Copyright 1999 Microsoft Corporation
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
The Next Convergence
POTS connects to the Web
a.k.a. Phone-Web Gateways
Web Server
PSTN
Voice to WEB
Bridge
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
The
Web
DataBase
Computing Laws
WebOnPhone
Mission:
Enable
voice and text access on phones,
screen phones, PDAs and other devices to
existing Internet infrastructure in an intelligent,
customizable way.
WebOnPhone
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Cyberspace: one, two or three
networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020
Data
Telephony
Television
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Will we have
gateways?
Computing Laws
Hardware technology:
processing, memory,
networking, and new
interfaces enable the new
computers
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
1. We get more
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Extrapolation from 1950s:
20-30% growth per year
Tera
Giga
Storage
Backbone
Processing
Memory
Mega
Kilo
1
Copyright
Gordon Bell
& Jim Gray
1947
1957
1967
??
Telephone Service
17% / year
1977 Computing
1987 1997
Laws
2007
National Semiconductor Technology
Roadmap (size)
10000
0.35
Memory size (Mbytes/chip) & Mtransistors/ chip
Mem(MBytes)
0.3
Micros Mtr/chip
Line width
1000
0.25
0.2
100
0.15
0.1
10
0.05
1
0
1995
1998
2001
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
2004
2007
2010
Computing Laws
National Storage Technology
Roadmap (size, density, speed)
100000
100000
3 .5 " Ca p . ( B y te s )
1 .3 " Ca p . ( B y te s )
10000
B its /s q . in .
10000
Da ta - r a te ( B y te s /s )
1000
1000
100
100
10
10
1
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
1995
2000
1
Computing
Laws
2005
Performance in Mflop/s
Growth of microprocessor
performance
10000
1000
100
Cray 2
Cray Y-MP Cray C90
Alpha
RS6000/590
Alpha
RS6000/540
Cray X-MP
Cray 1S
10
Cray T90
Supers
Micros
i860
R2000
1
0.1
0.01
8087
80387
6881
80287
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Microprocessor performance
100 G
10 G
Giga
100 M
10 M
Peak
Advertised
Performance
(PAP)
Real Applied
Performance
(RAP)
41% Growth
Mega
Kilo
Copyright
Gordon Bell &1980
Jim Gray
1970
Moore’s
Law
1990 Computing
2000
Laws
2010
System-on-a-chip alternatives
FPGA
Sea of un-committed
gate arrays
Compile Unique processor for
a system every app
Systolic | Many pipelined or
array
parallel processors
DSP |
Special purpose
VLIW
processors
Pc & Mp. Gen. Purpose cores.
Specialized by I/O, etc.
ASICS
Universal Multiprocessor array,
Micro
programmable I/o
Xylinx,
Altera
Tensillica
TI
Intel,
Lucent, IBM
Cradle
Cradle: Universal Microsystem
trading Verilog & hardware for C/C++
UMS : VLSI = microprocessor : special systems
Software : Hardware
 Single part for all apps
 Programming @ run time via FPGA & ROM
 5 quad mPs at 3 Gflops/quad = 15 Glops
 Single shared memory space, caches
 Programmable periphery including:
1 GB/s; 2.5 Gips
PCI, 100 baseT, firewire
 $4 per flops; 150 mW/Gflops
UMS Architecture
DRAM
CONTROL
CLOCKS,
DEBUG

MEMORY
MEMORY
M M M M
S S S S
P P P P
M M M M
S S S S
P P P P
PROG I/O
PROG I/O
PROG I/O
MEMORY
PROG I/O
MEMORY
PROG I/O
PROG I/O
PROG I/O

PROG I/O
PROG I/O

PROG I/O
M M M M
S S S S
P P P P
NVMEM

PROG I/O
PROG I/O
M M M M
S S S S
P P P P
DRAM
Memory bandwidth scales with processing
Scalable processing, software, I/O
Each app runs on its own pool of processors
Enables durable, portable intellectual property
Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year
60%=
Exaops
1.E+21
1.E+18
40%=
Petaops
1.E+15
20%=
Teraops
1.E+12
1.E +9
1.E+6
1995
Copyright
Gordon 2005
Bell & Jim2015
Gray
2025
2035 2045
Computing
Laws
Communication rate(t) in log10(Kbps)
10
1 Gb
???
9
8
SAN/backpanels
7
LAN
1 Mb 6
???
WAN
5
ISDN
POTS @
17%/year
4
1 Kb
3
POTS
Copyright
2 Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
1965
1975
Computing Laws
1985
1995
2005
USA Today 1 Sept. 99
Video...
Plus >>B/W
Nomadicity Universality
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
2.0
0.8
The evolution of
wireless data
standards
0.4
0.2
0.1
0
UMTS
2Mbps
EDGE
384kbps
GPRS
115kbps
HSCSD
Circuit data 57.6kbps
<9.6kbps
Computing
Laws
1997 1998 1999 2000
2001 2002
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Public Spaces
Bluetooth
Phone
Cellular
Discovery of
proximity services
(flight schedules,
mall directories)
IrDA
Internet
Web
Server
T1, T3, …
Proxy
Server
802.11
Ethernet
Plus Maximum Trunk Speed and Max/Min Switch Speed Required in the Internet
Internet growths vs time
courtesy of Dr. Larry Roberts
100 Pbps
Voice Crossover
10 Pbps
1 Pbps
100 Tbps
$100 M
10 Tbps
$10 M
1 Tbps
Voice Traffic
100 Gbps
$1 M
Max. Switch Speed
10 Gbps
$100 K
OC-192
1 Gbps
OC-48
100 Mbps
OC-3
10 Mbps
OC-12
T3
T1
1 Mbps
100 Kbps
OC-768
$100 K 56
KB
1997 Breakpoint
Max. Port Speed
Internet Traffic
10 Kbps
1 Kbps
100 bps
Computing Laws
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
10 bps
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Desktop-desktop @ 1 gbps
http://research.
microsoft.com/
~gray/papers/
Win2K_1Gbps.doc
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
1988 Federal Plan for Internet
In a decade we can/will have:

more powerful personal computers
–
–
–
–

adequate networking????
–
–



processing 10-100x
4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper
Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays
low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use
ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs
Competitive wireless networking
One chip, networked platforms including light
bulbs, cameras everywhere, etc.
Some well-defined platforms that compete with the
PC for mind (time) and market share
watch, pocket, body implant, home
Inevitable, continued cyberization… the
challenge… interfacing platforms and people.
The End
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Things get cheaper
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Exponential change of 10X per
decade causes real turmoil!
100000
10000
8 MB
1 MB
Timeshared
systems
1000 256 KB
100
$K
10
1
0.1
64 KB
16 KB
Single-user
systems
0.01
1960
1970
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
1980Computing
1990
2000
Laws
VAX Planning Model 1975:
I didn’t believe it

The model was very good
–

1978 timeshared $250K VAXen
cost about $8K in 1997!
Costs declined > 20%
–
users get more memory than predicted
Single user systems didn’t come
down as fast, unless you consider
PDAs
Copyright
Gordon
Bell out
& Jim Gray
Computing
Laws
 VAX
ran
of address
bits!

Newer & cheaper always wins?
… if it weren’t for the Law of Intertia
Old
Old
New
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
New
Computing Laws
“The mainframe is dead!
… and for sure this time!”
P
R
I
C
E
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Mainframe
Server
PC
Computing Laws
The law of data and program
inertia sustains platforms!




The investment in programs and processes to
use them, and data exceed hardware costs
The cost to switch among platforms e.g. IBM
mainframe, VMS, a VendorIX, or Windows/NT is
determined by the data and programs
The goal of hardware suppliers is
uniqueness to differentiate and lock-in
The goals of software/database suppliers are:
to differentiate and lock-in and
operate on as many platforms as possible
in order to be not tied to a hardware vendor
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
Computer industry growth
(Gbell’s swag 12/99)
Machine class
1992
1998
2004
Watch
>
Cellphone WAP
>>
Appliance of some type
=
TC (TV Computer) na
=
>>
Handhelds
>>
=
Network Computer
=
>
PC (portables)
>
>
>
PC (desktop)
=
=
=
Workstation
=
<
<
VendorIX server (mini)>
>>
>
Mainframe
<
<
<
Super (classic)
=
<
<<
Scalable PCs
=
>
>>
Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws
=Copyright
0-10%,Gordon
>10-20%,
>> 20-30%; < -10%
The End
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Computing Laws