NBS-OECD Workshop on National Accounts
6-10 November 2006
Measuring Chinese Productivity Growth
Paul Schreyer
OECD
1
Background
OECD Productivity Database:
•
Economy-wide labour productivity levels and growth rates
for most OECD member countries
•
Economy-wide multi-factor productivity growth rates for
19 OECD countries
Objective:
•
Extend country coverage to include some large nonmember countries, in particular China
Project:
•
Paper commissioned from Carsten Holz (University of
Hong Kong) to assess data availability for Chinese
productivity measures
2
Background
Focus of presentation:
•
Labour productivity
•
Capital measures in the paper are very preliminary
•
Also, for multi-factor productivity, OECD constructs its
own, “harmonised” capital measures
Purpose of presentation:
•
Report on some findings
•
Put forward questions to solicit comments from NBS on
evaluation of China data
•
Present candidate series for labour productivity to be
integrated into the productivity database
3
Structure of the report
Chapter 2
Output measures
Chapter 3
Labour input measures
Chapter 4
Capital measures
Chapter 5
Productivity analysis
4
Output measures (1)
1. Total economy and main industrial sectors
National GDP growth based on production approach, at current
and constant prices
Source: Statistical Abstract 2006, which shows data for 19932004 which takes account of the 2004 census benchmark
revision
 Any reason to prefer expenditure or income-based approach
over production approach?
 Any reason to prefer the sum of provincial GDPs over the
national GDP data?
Table 3 reports rising differences of 8 – 19% for the years
2000-2004 in the production based GDP levels with
provincial GDPs > national GDP
5
Output measures (2)
Link between sectoral and total growth rates in real terms
 Which index numbers are used for aggregation?
 How did the changes in nominal GDP due to 2004/05
benchmark revision affect real growth rates of sectors and
of the total economy?
 How is constant-price value added for industrial sectors
derived?
6
Labour input measures
Total economy and main industrial sectors
Variable: total employment, or more precisely, total
“labourers” i.e., the number of persons at end-year aged 15
and above who worked for monetary or non-monetary
compensation for at least one hour in the week preceding
the population census
Source: Statistical Yearbook
 Primary data source: population censuses
 How are intermediate years derived?
 Do these numbers include self-employed and military employees?
 Is there any information about average hours worked by person?
 Any reason to prefer alternative source of employment based on report
form data?
7
China – total economy: GDP per person employed
400.0
14.0%
350.0
12.0%
300.0
10.0%
250.0
8.0%
200.0
% change: right
scale
90-05: 8.4%
150.0
100.0
6.0%
4.0%
Index: left scale
2.0%
0.0
0.0%
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
9
19 5
96
19
97
19
98
19
9
20 9
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
50.0
8
Total economy – GDP per person employed
14.0%
12.0%
China
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
Ireland
4.0%
2.0%
USA
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
19
91
19
19
90
0.0%
9
Labour productivity
Some additional questions:
 How well do employment and output data match?
 Is there a GDP adjustment for the non-observed economy,
and if so, is there also an adjustment for employment?
10
Proposal for integration of Chinese productivity
series for inclusion into the OECD productivity
data base
Labour productivity
Annual labour productivity growth (GDP per employed
person)
Total economy and “industry” (=manufacturing)
Starting with 1990
Source: Statistical Yearbook or directly data transmitted to
OECD ANA database
Multi-factor productivity: no full integration at this point but
link to existing papers
Revised version of the Holz paper as STD Working Paper
11