SNA Indicators and the Terms of Trade
Michael Davies,
First Assistant Statistician,
Macroeconomics and Integration Group,
Australian Bureau of Statistics
1
Australia’s mining boom
• Since 2003, the Australian Economy has
experienced a mining boom
– High demand for Australian exports
– Driven more by growing export prices than by
an increase in export volumes
2
Measuring the Effects of Trade
•
•
•
•
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Real Gross Domestic Income (RGDI)
Real Gross National Income (GNI)
Real Net National Disposable Income
(RNNDI)
3
Real Gross Domestic Income
• Measures purchasing power of total
income generated by domestic production
• ABS deflates RGDI’s trading gains
measure by using the import price deflator
– real value of exports, in ABS’s view, is best
measured by the value of imports that can be
purchased from exporting
4
GDP and GDI
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT VS REAL GROSS DOMESTIC INCOME, Percentage changes
%change
12
GDP: Chain volume measures
RGDI: Volume measures
9
6
4
1
–2
–5
1959
–60
1964
–65
1969
–70
1974
–75
1979
–80
1984
1989
–85
–90
financial year
1994
–95
1999
–00
2004
–05
2009
–10
5
Real Gross National Income
• RGNI = RGDI
– Plus net real primary income payable to rest
of world
• Note: already adjusted for terms of trade
Real Net National Disposable Income
• Expands on RGNI to account for:
– depreciation of fixed capital
– amounts of net property incomes payable to
the rest of world
• A measure for total final consumption and
saving possibilities of an economy
7
Real Net National Disposable Income
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC INCOME VS REAL NET NATIONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME
$billion
1400
Real gross domestic income
Real net national disposable income
1200
1000
800
600
1984
–85
1989
–90
1994
1999
–95
–00
financial year
2004
–05
400
2009
–10
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RGDI AND RNNDI, percentage change
%change
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0
–2.5
1984
–85
1989
–90
1994
–95
1999
–00
financial year
2004
–05
2009
–10
8
Gross Fixed Capital formation and Net
Payable to Rest of the World
GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION, Chain volume measures
$billion
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
1984
–85
1989
–90
1994
–95
1999
–00
2004
–05
2009
–10
financial year
NET PROPERTY INCOME PAYABLE TO THE REST OF THE WORLD, Current prices
$billion
60
40
20
0
–20
1984
–85
1989
–90
1994
–95
1999
–00
financial year
2004
–05
2009
–10
9
Summary Statistics
SUMMARY STATISTICS OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS, Volume measures
$billion
1400
GDP
RGNI
RGDI
RNNDI
1200
1000
800
600
400
1984
–85
1989
–90
1994
–95
1999
–00
2004
–05
2009
–10
SUMMARY STATISTICS OF ECONOMIC financial
INDICATyear
ORS, per capita
$'000
60
GDP : Chain volume measures
RNNDI : Volume measures
50
40
30
20
1984
–85
1989
–90
1994
–95
1999
–00
financial year
Note: The ABS does not publish RGNI and RGDI on a per capita basis
2004
–05
2009
–10
10
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
2008 SNA is a comprehensive framework
presents a variety of summary indicators
no single indicator sufficient
large terms of trade changes requires
consideration of RGDI, RGNI and RNNDI
• RNNDI appropriate for representing
consumption possibilities.
Questions
12