ESA 2010
GDP/GNI impact
The Netherlands
Marcel Pommée
SNA 2008: Conceptual changes, 44 issues
- 44 research issues determined by the Advisory Expert
Group (AEG), an advisory body established
by the UN Statistical Commission
-10 issues have an impact on GDP/GNI
-10 issues introduce a methodological change,
but do not have an impact on GDP/GNI
7 issues have already been implemented in Europe
-17 issues relate to terminology or clarification
ESA 1995 and 2010: historical perspective
revision
year
GDP
Major causes
1995
+ 4,4%
Depreciation on public infrastructure
Computer software
2001
+ 1,3%
2010
+ 1,1 to 2,0%
FISIM
Research and development
Military expenses
Issues affecting GDP/GNI
Research and development (issue no. 9)
- Market producers: purchases treated as GFCF, own account capital formation
- Non-market producers, consumption of fixed capital on R&D-assets
- Expenditures based on Frascati Manual definitions (and adapted to the NA)
- PIM used to calculate capital stock and consumption of fixed capital
- Service lives based on the age distribution of patents from the Dutch Patent Registry
- Introduction: sufficiently high level of reliability and comparability by EU-Member States
Military weapons (no. 19)
- All expenditure by the military that meets the definition of an assets treated as GFCF
- Five categories with different service lives: 1) Weapons and tanks, 2) Transmitting sets,
measuring equipment, navigation systems etc., 3) Cars and armoured cars, 4) Warships,
and 5) Aeroplanes
- Government: consumption of fixed capital increases GDP/GNI
Issues affecting GDP/GNI
Financial services, FISIM (no. 3)
- By convention no interbank FISIM (resident and non-resident banks). This affects GDP
but not GNI as the changes are counterbalanced by the interest flows with the ROW
- Results FISIM Task Force; use at least two groups of currencies, no recommendations yet
on maturity structure and default risk
- Tests continue, consensus by end of 2012, otherwise current methodology
Cost of ownership transfer (no. 14)
- Costs of ownership transfer should be written off over the period the asset is expected to
be held by the purchaser rather than over the whole life of the asset
- For non-market producers this change in consumption of fixed capital will lead to a
change in GDP/GNI
- Currently, in the Netherlands, the cost of ownership tranfer on land is written-off in the
year it is incurred
Issues affecting GDP/GNI
Originals and copies (no. 11)
- A copy of a licence to use may be treated as GFCF if it is to be used in production for more
than one year and the licensee assumes all the risks and rewards of ownership
(purchased with a single payment for use over a multi-year period).
- However, if regular payments are made for a licence to use without a long term contract,
the payments are treated as payments for a service
- Negative impact on GDP
- New survey on purchases of software packages has been launched in 2010
Non-life insurance services (no. 5)
- Use of adjusted claims in order to smooth the recording of output of non-life insurance
services
- Adjusted claims may be calcultated from a model based on the past pattern of claims
payable.
- Unexpectedly large claims do not lead to volatile and negative estimates of output anymore
- Catastrophic losses are treated as capital transfers rather than insurance claims. This may
have a positive impact on GDP/GNI
Issues affecting GDP/GNI
Private/public/government sector delineation (no. 36)
- A number of new public units have been identified
- Receipts sometimes higher than costs
- Non-market production: no incentives to adjust supply (not a market), consumers not free
to choose (unit is sole provider)
- Financed by fixed obligatory contributions or fees for services rendered from private
sector
- Units with tasks like regulation, registration and inspection
- Patented entities (no. 10), now included in R&D
- Databases (no. 12)
- Right to use/exploit non-produced resources, non-resident (no. 18)
- Treatment of multi-territory enterprises (no. 25c)
- Treatment of index-linked debt instruments (no. 43a)
- Fees payable on securities lending and gold loans (no. 43d)
Impact of ESA2010 on GDP, provisional estimates, 2007
No.
Issue
9
19
6a
14
11
5
Research and development
Military weapons
Financial services - FISIM
Cost of ownership transfer
Originals and copies
Non-life insurance services
- adjusted claims
- catastrophic losses
Private/public/government sector delineation
Databases
Treatment of multi-territory enterprises
Treatment of index-linked debt instruments
Fees payable on securities lending and gold loans
36
12
25c
43a
43d
Total impact - low estimate
Total impact - high estimate
% of GDP
1,38 to 1,78
0,13 to 0,14
-0,32 to 0,03
-0,01 to 0
-0,05 to 0
small
zero - large
negligible
small
negligible
zero
negligible
1,13
1,96