OECD Working Party on National Accounts
1 ~ 3 December 2010, Paris, France
Min Woo KIM
National Income Statistics & Coordination Team
National Accounts Office
Economic Statistics Department
The Bank of Korea
1957 : Compilation of ANA by the Bank of Korea
1968 : Compilation of QNA
1999 : Inflation-targeting monetary policy regime
2000 : Requests on rapid GDP estimate from
the policymakers, academic circles, and journals
• 2001 : Development of one-step ahead forecasting
model of GDP growth
• 2005 : Compilation of ‘Advance’ estimate(D+28)
• 2008 : Compilation of ‘Flash’ estimate(D+5)
•
•
•
•
1st
2nd
3rd
• Flash Estimate
• D+5 days
• Advance Estimate
• D+28 days
• Preliminary Estimate
• D+70 days
Monetary Policy
Committee
Preemptive
Economic Policy
Decision
Ministry of
Strategy and
Finance
• Compilation completed within 5 days of the end
of the reference quarter
• Monthly data of first two-month and various daily
collected data
• Judgemental extrapolation based on many streams
of official and unofficial source data and models
• Production/Expenditure approaches and
balancing procedure
• Provided only to Monetary Policy Committee
• Not disclosed to the public
─ Advance
• Compilation completed and announced within 28
days of the end of the reference quarter
• Provisional corporate financial statements
• Published to the public
─ Preliminary
• Compilation completed and released within 70
days of the end of the reference quarter
• Final corporate financial statements and various
quarterly statistics(Statistics Korea)
• Published to the public
F
A
P
￭ Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Economic
Activity and Gross National Income
○
○
○
￭ Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product
○
○
○
￭ Gross Capital Formation by Sector and
Type of Capital Goods
○
○
￭ Composition of Final Consumption Expenditure
of Households by Purpose
○
○
￭ Composition of Final Consumption Expenditure
of Households by Type
○
○
Provided Tables
￭ Gross Saving and Gross Investment
○
• Revisions: incorporation of more complete or better source data
Estimates(%)
Percent change from
previous quarter
2008
2009
2010
Difference(%p)
Percent change over
previous year
Percent change from
previous quarter
A-F
P-A
P-F
Percent change over
previous year
F
A
P
F
A
P
A-F
P-A
P-F
1q
0.7
0.7
0.8
5.7
5.7
5.8
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
2q
0.9
0.8
0.8
4.9
4.8
4.8
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
3q
0.6
0.6
0.5
3.9
3.9
3.8
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
4q
-5.5
-5.6
-
-3.3
-3.4
-
-0.1
-
-
-0.1
-
-
1q
0.2
0.1
0.1
-4.2
-4.3
-4.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.0
2q
2.3
2.3
2.6
-2.5
-2.5
-2.2
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.3
3q
2.8
2.9
3.2
0.5
0.6
0.9
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.4
4q
0.2
0.2
-
6.0
6.0
-
0.0
-
-
0.0
-
-
1q
1.8
1.8
2.1
7.8
7.8
8.1
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.3
2q
1.4
1.5
1.4
7.2
7.2
7.2
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
 Statistics vs. Forecasts


Flash and Advance estimate are just forecasts, not statistics.
They are statistics: They still depend on the source data and a reasonable inference of the current
economic situation based on various quantitative and qualitative information.
 Accuracy vs. Rapidity


The Flash or Advance estimate is premised on the sacrifice of statistical accuracy.
Rapidity is more important: A rapid but a slightly inaccurate estimate is much better than the acc
urate statistics after a long time lag in a new era.
 Transparency vs. Policy priority


It is problematic that why is the Flash estimate provided only to monetary policy committee
Policy priority should be emphasized: Its public release should be put off until its statistical stabil
ity is clearly proven. It is desirable for the public good to provide it to policymaker.
 Extra burden vs. User friendly


The compilation of the Flash or Advance estimate is certainly an additional burden to compilers,
which might cause a lack of precision in statistics.
Users are the reason why we are: User satisfaction is also one of the elements in evaluating the qu
ality of statistics.
• Increasing importance of more up to date
macroeconomic statistics (especially in inflationtargeting monetary policy regime)
• One-step ahead policy considerations
• Reducing the time lag between turning point in
the business cycle and policy measures
• Making strong meat counter-cyclical policy near
reference date digestible
• Improvement in the effectiveness of preemptive
economic policy measures and confidence in them
• Less model
• Less judgement
• More source data
• Statistical infrastructure and capacity still be
primary priority
• Development of monthly GDP