Energy - Facts and Challenges
Anita Jones
Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, World Energy Assessment, British Petroleum
February 2007
Technology, Energy, and Society are Inextricably Intertwined
Today’s Energy Technologies and Infrastructures are Firmly Rooted in the 20th Century
Quadrillion Btu
40
Petroleum
U.S. Energy
U.S. Energy Consumption
by Source
Consumption
by
Source
30
Hydroelectric
Power
Natural Gas
20
Incandescent lamp,
1870s
Four-stroke combustion
engine, 1870s
Coal
Nuclear
Electric
Power
10
Wood
Watt Steam
Engine, 1782
0
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Rural Electrification Act,
1935
Wind, water, wood, animals, (Mayflower,1620)
Intercontinental Rail System, mid 1800s
Eisenhower Highway System, 1956 2
Energy Facts
 Energy consumption today
 Energy needs through the 21st century
 Energy sources and consumption sectors in the U.S.
 Fossil fuel reserves
 Nuclear and renewable energy
3
U.S. and World Energy Consumption Today
446 Quads
World
U.S. Share of World, 2004
22.5%
15.9%
4.6%
United States
Population
Energy
Production
Energy
Consumption
100 Quads
China
Russia
Equivalent ways of referring to the energy used by the U.S. in 1 year (~ 100 Quads)
100.0 quadrillion British Thermal Units (Quads)
105.5 exa Joules (EJ)
3.346 terawatt-years (TW-yr)
U.S. & British unit of energy
Metric unit of energy
Metric unit of power (energy/sec)x(#seconds in a year)
5
World Energy Needs will Grow Significantly in the 21st Century
1,286
Projections to 2030 are from the
Energy Information Administration,
International Energy Outlook, 2006.
World Primary Energy
Consumption (Quads)
826
Projections for 2050 and 2100
are based on a scenario based
on “moderate” assumptions
(Scenario B2) for population &
economic growth. It is neither
overly conservative nor overly
aggressive.
Source: Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
an organization jointly
established in 1988 by the
World Meteorological
Organization and the United
Nations Environment Programme.
6
U.S. Energy Flow, 2005 (Quads = Quadrillion BTU)
~33% of U.S. primary energy is imported
Domestic
Production:
69 Quads
Consumption:
100 Quads
Imports:
34 Quads
Energy Consumption
Energy Supply (Quads)
Exports
4
Adjustments 1
9
U.S. Energy Flow, 2005 (Quads)
86% of energy comes from fossil fuels, with 69% of the petroleum imported
Domestic
67%
Imports
33%
Supply
104
Quads
Fossil
86%
Consume
100
Quads
Industrial
Nuclear 8%
Renewable 6%
12
U.S. Energy Flow, 2002 (Quads)
80% of energy for the transportation sector and 69% for electricity generation/use is lost
13
2nd Law of Thermodynamics
• Temperature differences between systems in contact
with each other tend to even out. Work can be
obtained from these non-equilibrium differences, but
that loss of heat occurs, in the form of entropy, when
work is done.
• Example: Glass of ice in water. Ice melting provides
a classic example in which entropy increases in a
small 'universe', a thermodynamic system that
consists of the 'surroundings' (the warm room) and
the 'system' of glass, ice, and cold water.
• Energy has spontaneously become more dispersed
and spread out in that ‘universe’ than when the glass
of ice + water was introduced.
15
Where are the Fossil Fuel Reserves?
Significant Dislocation Between Regional Share of Fossil Fuel Supply & Demand
Oil
100
Gas
Coal
87%
80
77%
60
64%
60%
Percent
40
20
0
10%
15%
Consumption Reserves Consumption Reserves Consumption Reserves
2004
Rest of World
N. America, Europe and Asia Pacific (Three largest energy markets)
Source: BP Statistical Review 2005; Slide Courtesy: Steven E. Koonin, Chief Scientist, BP, plc
Note: oil reserve figures do not include unconventional reserves estimates
18
How Large are the Fossil Fuel Reserves?
The “Reserves-to-Production (R/P) Ratios” Provide an Estimate of Years of Reserves Remaining
Proven World Reserves-to-Production Ratio
at End 2004 (Years)
245 yrs.
200
164 yrs.
 World R/P ratios are:
Oil = 40.5 years;
Natl Gas = 66.7 yrs;
Coal = 164 years
100
66.7 yrs.
40.5 yrs.
0
11.1 yrs.
9.8 yrs.
Oil
Gas
U.S. R/P ratios shown by dotted lines.
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005
• The R/P ratio is the
number of years that
proved reserves would
last at current
production rates.
Coal
 U.S. R/P ratios are:
Oil = 11.1 years;
Natl Gas = 9.8 years;
Coal = 245 years
21
“Peak Oil” – When Will Oil Production Peak?
Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios: The Future Is Neither as Bleak or Rosy as Some Assert, John H. Wood, Gary R.
Long, David F. Morehouse
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html
24
Construction Permits for U.S. Power Nuclear Reactors
8.23 quads of Nuclear Electric
Power is produced by 104
operable U.S. nuclear power
plants.
300
Units Ordered
Number of Units
250
200
Construction Permits Issued
150
Full-power Operating Licenses
100
Operable Units
50
Shutdowns
0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
27
Nuclear Energy Provides 20% of U.S. Electricity
Europe and Japan rely much more heavily on nuclear energy for electricity generation
28
Renewable Energy Consumption by Major Sources, 2005
Solar 1%
Wood 31%
Renewable
Energy 6%
Waste 9%
Wind 2%
Conventional
Hydroelectric
Power 45%
Alcohol Fuels 6%
Geothermal 6%
30
Technical Long-Term Potential for Renewable Energy in the U.S.
Solar
Hydroelectric
Biomass
Wave/Tidal
Wind
Geothermal
Photovoltaics
• 2004 consumption = 0.063 Quads
(inc. concentrated solar power)
• Technical source potential =
Concentrated solar power
• Technical source potential =
• 2004 consumption = 2.85 Quads
• Technical source potential =
Onshore
• 2004 consumption = 0.143 Quads
• Technical source potential =
Offshore
• 2004 consumption = N/A
• Technical source potential =
• 2004 consumption = 2.75 Quads
• Technical source potential =
Mechanical
• 2004 consumption = N/A
• Technical source potential =
Thermal
• 2004 consumption = N/A
• Technical source potential =
• 2004 consumption = 0.34 Quads
• Technical source potential =
31
A Recent Analysis Provided Four Energy Goals for the DOE Strategic Plan
Energy Diversity
Increase our energy options and reduce dependence on oil,
thereby reducing vulnerability to disruptions and increasing
the flexibility of the market to meet U.S. needs.
Environmental Impacts of Energy
Improve the quality of the environment by reducing
greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impacts to
land, water, and air from energy production and use.
Energy Infrastructure
Create a more flexible, more reliable, and higher capacity
U.S. energy infrastructure.
Energy Productivity
Cost-effectively improve the energy efficiency of the U.S.
economy.
32
The DOE Analysis Looked at the Vertical and the Horizontal Connections
Supply
Advanced Nuclear
Zero Emission Fossil
Electric Generation
Renewable Energy
Distribution
Use
Electric Grid
of the Future
Hydrogen & Gas
Infrastructure
Industrial
Technologies
Advanced Building
Systems
Fusion Energy
Alternative Liquid Fuels
Fuel Grid
of the Future
Vehicle
Technologies
Bioenergy/Chemicals
Future Electricity Systems
Future Liquid Fuels Systems
Future Hydrogen & Gaseous Fuels Systems
Cross-cutting / Enabling Science and Technology
33
“Basic Research Needs” Workshops
 Basic Research Needs to Assure a Secure Energy Future
BESAC Workshop, October 21-25, 2002
The foundation workshop that set the model for the focused workshops that follow.
 Basic Research Needs for the Hydrogen Economy
BES Workshop, May 13-15, 2003
 Nanoscience Research for Energy Needs
BES and the National Nanotechnology Initiative, March 16-18, 2004
 Basic Research Needs for Solar Energy Utilization
BES Workshop, April 18-21, 2005
 Advanced Computational Materials Science: Application to Fusion
and Generation IV Fission Reactors
BES, ASCR, FES, and NE Workshop, March 31-April 2, 2004
 The Path to Sustainable Nuclear Energy: Basic and Applied
Research Opportunities for Advanced Fuel Cycles
BES, NP, and ASCR Workshop, September 2005
 Basic Research Needs for Superconductivity
BES Workshop, May 8-10, 2006
 Basic Research Needs for Solid-state Lighting
BES Workshop, May 22-24, 2006
 Basic Research Needs for Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems
BES Workshop, July 31-August 3, 2006
 Basic Research Needs for the Clean and Efficient Combustion of
21st Century Transportation Fuels
BES Workshop, October 30-November 1, 2006
 Basic Research Needs for Geosciences: Facilitating 21st Century
Energy Systems
BES Workshop, February 21-23, 2007
 Basic Research Needs for Electrical Energy Storage
BES Workshop, April 2-5, 2007
34
The Continuum of RD&D and the ACI & AEI
Grand
Challenge
Research
Discovery
Research
Use-Inspired
Basic
Research
Applied
Research
Technology
Maturation
& Deployment
BES Basic Research Needs
Workshops
BESAC Grand Challenges Panel
Technology Office/Industry
Roadmaps
35
23
Federal Funding of Research – the ACI and the AEI
The American Competitiveness Initiative doubles investment
over 10 years in key Federal agencies that support basic
research programs in the physical sciences and engineering –
investments in cutting-edge basic research whose quality is
bolstered by merit review and which focuses on fundamental
discoveries to produce valuable and marketable technologies,
processes, and techniques.
The Advanced Energy Initiative provides a 22% increase in
funding for clean-energy technology research at the
Department of Energy in two vital areas: (1) changing the way
we fuel our vehicles and (2) changing the way we power our
homes and businesses.
36
PSAC Recommendations – Federal Energy Policy
• Increase federal support for science &
technology
– American Competitiveness Initiative
• Double funding of NSF, NIST & DoE Office of Science
• Accelerate near-term commercialization of
energy technologies
– Advanced Energy Initiative – 22% increase in clean
energy R&D
• Support state initiatives in renewable
technology: hydro, geothermal, wind, wave, etc.
• Federal govt. should be an early adopter of new
technology
37
PSAC Recommendations – Electric Power Generation
• Expand use of nuclear energy
– Federal government provide risk insurance
– Increase production tax credit
– Increase generation capacity (by 36,000 megawatts by 2030)
• Resolve nuclear waste containment issue
• Build coal gasification plants instead of natural
gas facilities
• Improve efficiency of legacy electric power plants
• Support renewable energy plans
• Reduce regulatory barriers to installation of
renewable distributed generation technologies
38
PSAC Recommendations – Transportation
• Encourage industry to expand availability of biofuels
& flex-fuel vehicles
• Increase the supply of E10 and E85
–
–
–
–
–
E10: 10% ethanol and 90% gasoline
E85: 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline
Eliminate ethanol import tariff for E85
Give excise tax credit for ethanol
Identify lands suitable for energy crop production
• Support cellulosic biomass conversion technologies
• Encourage production of flex-fuel vehicles
– Expand use of E85 in govt. vehicles
• Revise CAFE standards
– Corporate Average fleet economy – miles per gallon
– Modify CAFE to encourage non-fossil-fuel use
39
PSAC Recommendations – Energy Storage
• Support research on nano-materials for
energy storage
• Encourage manufacture of energy
storage products
– Most battery storage manufacture is off-shore
• Initiate basic research initiative on nextgeneration energy storage technology
40
PSAC Recommendations – End-Use Energy Efficiency
• Expand Energy Star program to raise
public awareness of “after purchase”
costs of energy for products
• Encourage energy-efficient technologies
for buildings
• Encourage efficient lighting
• Set standards to improve efficiency of
motor-driven appliances
41
There is no silver bullet
Address generation, storage, transmission and end use
42
End
43