THIRD JOINT EUROPEAN COMMISSION – OECD WORKSHOP ON INTERNATIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF BUSINESS AND CONSUMER TENDENCY SURVEYS
BRUSSELS
12 – 13 NOVEMBER 2007
Results of first coordinated international survey on what people
know about key statistical indicators produced by official statistics
by Marco Malgarini
ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses
The OECD Global Project on “Measuring and
Fostering the progress of Societies”
• In June 2007, an exceptional group of 1200 people from about 130
countries gathered in Istanbul to attend the second OECD World Forum on
"Statistics, Knowledge and Policy“
• At the end of the Forum, the OECD, the European Commission, the
Organisation of the Islamic Conference, the United Nations, the UN
Development Programme and the World Bank released the Istanbul
declaration, affirming their willingness to:
• Foster a global conversation about what progress actually means
• Galvanise people and institutions to action
• Improve the effectiveness of indicator work and their use for policy
making
• Make a key contribution to the international discussion
THIRD JOINT EUROPEAN COMMISSION – OECD WORKSHOP ON INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF BUSINESS AND CONSUMER TENDENCY SURVEYS
BRUSSELS 12 – 13 NOVEMBER 2007
2
The OECD Global Project on “Measuring and
Fostering the progress of Societies”
• The time frame to achieve this goals is 2007-2015
• In this period, the Global Project will carry out activities in the following areas:
•Statistical research on the measurement of societal progress in all its
dimensions, in particular:
• Publish comparative results based on an international survey on what
citizens know about the progress of their society
• Design, develop and promote the use of innovative ICT tools to facilitate the
transformation of statistics into knowledge
• Establish a global network to foster the measurement of progress in each
and every country
• Develop a global infrastructure to facilitate the assessment of societal
progress at national and global levels to bring about evidence-based policy
discussions and decision-making
THIRD JOINT EUROPEAN COMMISSION – OECD WORKSHOP ON INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF BUSINESS AND CONSUMER TENDENCY SURVEYS
BRUSSELS 12 – 13 NOVEMBER 2007
3
First results of International surveys on what people
know: the Eurobarometer Survey
• In the framework of the standard Eurobarometer survey in April-May 2007 a
number of questions have been added regarding:
• the knowledge of key statistical indicators
• The “necessity” to know this information
• Whether political decisions are made on the basis of them.
• The general level of trust the public has in official statistical data.
• First evidence suggests that:
• A large majority of people “do not know” about official data on GDP and
Unemployment
• People tend to affirm that they know about inflation, even if the share of
wrong answer exceeds 50% in all countries
• The percentage of people not knowing official figures ranges from more than
85% of people in Romania concerning the unemployment rate, to less than 10%
in Greece for inflation.
THIRD JOINT EUROPEAN COMMISSION – OECD WORKSHOP ON INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF BUSINESS AND CONSUMER TENDENCY SURVEYS
BRUSSELS 12 – 13 NOVEMBER 2007
4
First results of International surveys on what people
know: GDP growth
THIRD JOINT EUROPEAN COMMISSION – OECD WORKSHOP ON INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF BUSINESS AND CONSUMER TENDENCY SURVEYS
BRUSSELS 12 – 13 NOVEMBER 2007
5
First results of International surveys on what people
know: inflation
THIRD JOINT EUROPEAN COMMISSION – OECD WORKSHOP ON INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF BUSINESS AND CONSUMER TENDENCY SURVEYS
BRUSSELS 12 – 13 NOVEMBER 2007
6
First results of International surveys on what people
know: trust in official statistics and political decisions
THIRD JOINT EUROPEAN COMMISSION – OECD WORKSHOP ON INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF BUSINESS AND CONSUMER TENDENCY SURVEYS
BRUSSELS 12 – 13 NOVEMBER 2007
7
The survey on Statistical Knowledge
• During 2007, a number of questions have been added to the usual ISAE monthly
survey on Italian Consumers
• Questions concerned the statistical knowledge of Italian citizens on:
• MARCH-APRIL 07: GDP growth, Inflation rate, Unemployment rate, Deficit/
GDP ratio
• MARCH & APRIL:
two questions on the importance and desire of being
informed and on the media used to gather relevant information
• MAY-SEPTEMBER 2007: two questions on statistical literacy, specific to
the knowledge of Inflation statistics
THIRD JOINT EUROPEAN COMMISSION – OECD WORKSHOP ON INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF BUSINESS AND CONSUMER TENDENCY SURVEYS
BRUSSELS 12 – 13 NOVEMBER 2007
8
The survey on Statistical Knowledge
• LOW Response rates to quantitative questions
• On average, Italian citizens tend to be OVEROPTIMISTIC about GDP
growth and PESSIMISTIC for the remaining variables
• UNCERTANTY among respondents was rather HIGH - as indicated by
Std. Dev
• The MEDIAN is generally closer to true values than the mean, indicating
that answers distributions are RIGHT- SKEWED
GDP
March
Inflation
April
Average
March
April
Average
Unempl
Deficit/
GDP
March
March
Response rate (%)
27
19.2
23.1
32.6
23.6
28.1
32.1
12.7
Don't Know (%)
70.5
72.8
71.7
65.1
68.8
66.9
65.5
84.5
Refuse to answer (%)
2.5
8
5.2
2.3
7.6
5
2.5
2.8
Average
2.7
2.1
2.5
4.5
2.9
3.8
14.5
8.5
Median
2
1.9
2
2.4
2.1
2.2
10
3.4
P25
1.5
1.3
1.5
2
1.9
2
7
2
P75
2.4
2.2
2.2
3
3
3
16
4.4
Std. Dev.
3.7
1.8
3.1
8.7
2.9
6.9
13
14.5
True value
1.9*
1.9*
1.8**
1.7***
6.8****
4.4*
(*) 2006, (**) February, (***) March, (****) III Quarter 2006, seasonally adjusted.
THIRD JOINT EUROPEAN COMMISSION – OECD WORKSHOP ON INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF BUSINESS AND CONSUMER TENDENCY SURVEYS
BRUSSELS 12 – 13 NOVEMBER 2007
9
The survey on Statistical Knowledge
How important is to be informed
on the issues we have discussed
so far?
Extremely important
Average
(%)
24.4
Important
46.1
Not very important
12.4
Don't know
Refuse to answer
•
More than 15% believe that information
is not very important or not important at
all
•
More than 40% of the respondents do not
want to be more informed about these
issues
3.2
4
1.7
Would you like to be more informed on these
issues?
Yes
54.8
No
40.5
Don’t Know/ Refuse to Answer
Italian citizens believing that information
is “extremely” or “very” important are
only a 33% of the population
8.2
Very important
Not important
•
4.7
THIRD JOINT EUROPEAN COMMISSION – OECD WORKSHOP ON INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF BUSINESS AND CONSUMER TENDENCY SURVEYS
BRUSSELS 12 – 13 NOVEMBER 2007
10
The survey on Statistical Knowledge
•
TELEVISION is the most often cited
channel used to acquire statistical
information
•
NEWSPAPERS & INTERNET are cited by
respectively 52 and 23% of the
respondents
•
Opinions shared among friends and
relatives (cited by 11,2% of respondents)
and political and civic leaders (7%) lag
behind the radio (almost 19%) as other
relevant
sources
of
statistical
information
Information channels %
Television
82
Radio
18.6
Newspapers, periodicals
51.9
Internet
23.3
Political, opinion leaders
Friends, relative
Refuse to answer
7
11.2
1.8
THIRD JOINT EUROPEAN COMMISSION – OECD WORKSHOP ON INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF BUSINESS AND CONSUMER TENDENCY SURVEYS
BRUSSELS 12 – 13 NOVEMBER 2007
11
The survey on Statistical Knowledge
Q1: Knowledge of official statistics on inflation
Knowledge
True value (March-April)
1.8-1.7
Response
rate (%) Survey Average
29.3
3.8
Response rate (%)
66.7
Survey Average
14.3
67.3
5.3
Standard deviation
6.9
Opinions
Inflation perceptions
Standard deviation
19.8
Inflation expectations
12.3
Median
2.2
P25
2.0
P75
3.0
Median
6
P25
0
P75
20
0
0
5
Q2. Knowledge of “consumer price” concept
Only products of daily use
47.9%
Also products acquired on a seasonal basis
23.9%
Also durable goods
24.5%
Q3. Knowledge of the “price variation” concept (only to those having answered that inflation is/will be the same to the
qualitative survey question)
Price perceptions
Have been the same as now Have risen the same as now
82%
18%
Price expectations
Will be the same has now
Will rise the same as now
82.1
17.9
THIRD JOINT EUROPEAN COMMISSION – OECD WORKSHOP ON INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF BUSINESS AND CONSUMER TENDENCY SURVEYS
BRUSSELS 12 – 13 NOVEMBER 2007
12
Building a Knowledge Score
• What are the determinants of statistical knowledge?
Method employed:
 Construct
a “Knowledge Score” aggregating the answers to the 5
five questions included in March’s questionnaire
 Assign
a score to each respondent based on the accuracy of
individual answers to each specific knowledge question
 Compute
the ABSOLUTE VALUE of the individuals errors (i.e. the
difference between individual answer and official data)
 SORT
Individual errors and calculate a “RAW SCORE” for each
question
 Compute a PERCENTILE RANK SCORE (PRS)
 AGGREGATE
Score”
by averaging each PRS and get the “Knowledge
A Model for Knowledge - CONCEPT
•
Model estimation using the Knowledge score as dependent variable
allowing the residuals to be heteroskedastic and use robust
methods in the OLS estimates :

Ki = f (SDi, Di, Si) + ui
 Ki = knowledge score
 SDi = socio-demographic characteristics of the respondent
 Di = desire of being informed
 Si = source used for being informed
 ui = unobserved error term, assumed to be uncorrelated with
the regressors
A Model for Knowledge - VARIABLES
•
Control variables






•
GENDER (M/F)
AGE ( <30 years, 30- 49, 50-64, and 65+)
ZONE OF RESIDENCE (North West, North East, Center and
South of Italy)
EMPLOYMENT STATUS (self-employed, employed,
unemployed and out of LF)
LEVEL OF EDUCATION (Primary school, Secondary school and
University level and higher), and
INCOME (divided into quartiles).
Desire to be informed and the channels used to acquire
information are measured on the basis of the answers provided to
the survey questions
OUTCOMES- Socio-demographic factors
VARIABLES
BETA
STD DEV
T-STAT
4.1
1.7
2.3
1
1.1
0.9
1.4
0.4
3.5
30-50 years
4.01
2.1
1.91
*
50-65 years
9.49
2.15
4.41
***
> 65 years
1.88
2.35
0.8
-12.08
1.12
-10.75
0.01
1.62
0.01
Center
-0.94
1.6
-0.59
South
-5.7
1.46
-3.91
***
High School or less
5.05
1.27
3.99
***
University degree
8.72
1.89
4.62
***
-0.25
1.56
-0.16
0.7
1.57
0.44
2.03
1.51
1.34
•
Knowledge is HIGHER:
Professional category (baseline: Employed)
Self employed
Unemployed
Out of labour force
**
 For men with respect
to women
***
Age (baseline: up to 30 years)
 For people between
30 and 65 years of age
 For better educated
people
Gender (baseline: Male)
Female
***
Zone of residence (baseline: North-West)
North-East
 For self-employed
and inactive people
(including students) with
respect to dependent
workers
Education (baseline: primary school)
Income (baseline: 1st quartile)
Second Quartile
Third Quartile
Fourth Quartile
Statistically Significance : * = 10%
** = 5%
*** = 1%
•
It is LOWER for people
leaving in the South of Italy
•
It is NOT INFLUENCED by
income
OUTCOMES- Importance and desire to
be informed
VARIABLES
BETA
STD DEV
T-STAT
•
Knowledge is NOT
STATISTICALLY
SIGNIFICANT for
people thinking it is
VERY important to be
informed
•
Knowledge is NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY
influenced
by
the
desired to be more
informed about these
subjects
Importance of being informed
(baseline: Extremely important)
Very Important
Important
Not very important
Absolutely not
important
-1.8
1.99
-0.9
-7.42
1.86
-3.98
***
-11.45
2.47
-4.64
***
-19.29
4.15
-4.65
Desire to be more informed
(baseline: No Desire)
Yes
0.71
***= Statistically Significant at 1%
1.26
0.56
***
OUTCOMES- Information Channels
•
VARIABLES
BETA
Std Dev
Television
0.43
1.58
0.27
Radio
1.39
1.37
1.01
Newspapers
5.15
1.15
4.46
Internet
2.95
1.47
2
Political, civic leaders
-2.08
1.73
-1.2
Friends, relatives
-0.19
1.74
-0.11
**= 5%
***= 1%
T-STAT
Knowledge
SIGNIFICANTLY
for:
HIGHER
 Italians reading
NEWSPAPERS to
achieve economic
information
***
 Italians using INTERNET
**
•
NO significant EFFECTS of
watching television,
listening to the radio and
discussing economic issues
among friends and relatives
or political and civic leaders
Conclusions
•
•
•
European and Italian consumers have shown a low level
of knowledge of economic data
There exist a complex interaction between trust in official
statistical agencies, opinion on the political process and
the willingness to be informed on economic data
Knowledge results to be significantly influenced by socio
demographic characteristics of the respondents,
– people attributing lower importance to being informed being also
–
those scoring worst results
people reading newspapers and using the Internet show a better
knowledge of key economic data
• Is there some “irrationality” of Italian and European
•
consumers?
Or is it a case of “rational inattention” (Curtin, 2007)?
Conclusions
•
•
Results stress the importance of developing new measurement of societal
progress, along the lines suggested in the OECD Global Project on
Measuring and Fostering the progress of societies.
An important step in this direction may be that of extending the survey on
statistical knowledge at the international level, having the goal of measuring:
– The public level of trust in official statistics; the possibility of providing a
comparison of the level of trust in official statistics with the general level
of trust in societies may also be explored
– The public appraisement on the political process, particularly regarding
the role statistic information plays in shaping political decisions
– The public desire/willingness of being informed on statistical issues
– The media used to acquire statistical information
– The knowledge of:
•
•
•
statistical data (economic, socio demographic data)
Statistical metadata (goods and services comprised in the calculation of
inflation; meaning of the GDP concept)
Else?