NESDB
Thailand’s Economic and
Social Development: Current Agenda
Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board
January 2007
NESDB
1
Outline of Presentation
Economic Situation and Prospect in 2007
The 10th National Economic and Social
Development Plan (2007-2011)
Current Government’s Priorities
NESDB
2
Economic Forecasts for 2007
2005
2006
2007
GDP (Bil. USD)
175.9
205.5
229.0
GDP per capita (USD/year)
2,713
3,146
3,481
4.5
5.0
4.0-5.0
11.1
4.3
6.2
5.5
3.6
3.8
Export growth (growth %)
15.0
16.8
9.0
Import growth (growth %)
25.9
8.3
9.6
Trade balance (Bill.US$)
-8.6
0.0
-0.8
Current account (Bill.US$)
-7.9
0.5
0.2
Current account to GDP (%)
-4.4
0.2
0.1
Inflation (%)
4.5
4.6
3.0-3.5
Unemployment (%)
1.7
1.8
1.8
40.3
38.0
37.0
GDP (growth %)
Investment (growth %)
Consumption (growth %)
Exchange rate (Baht/USD)
NESDB
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Strong Economic Stability
Extenal
Domestic
5.0
%
Unemployment rate
Exchange Rate
Bil. persons
Avg 2005 = 40.3 baht/US$
Avg. Q3 / 2006 = 37.69 baht/US$
Dec. = 36.25 baht/US$
60
38
Q3/2006 = 1.36%
Nov. = 1.2%
55
37
50
4.0
36
45
35
40
3.0
34
35
33
2.0
30
32
25
1996
31
1.0
Q1-44 Q1-45 Q1-46 Q1-47 Q1-48 Q1/49
Unemployment rate
40
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
500.0
450.0
400.0
50
1998
2006
Foreign Reserves to Short-term Debts
30
Employment
1997
50,000
At end of Dec. 2006
Reserves = 67 Bil.US$
45,000
40,000
350.0
NPL
Q3/2006 = 8.18%
30
300.0
250.0
200.0
Ratio to ST debts
(LHS)
150.0
100.0
35,000
30,000
International reserves
(RHS)Debt
Reserve/S-T Foreign
25,000
20,000
1997
1998 (Mil.US)
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Reserve
20
10
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
NESDB
(Mil.US$)
2005
2006/Q1
Q2
Q3
External Debts
50,240
57,719
57,826
59,066
• Short-term
16,014
19,130
17,838
20,693
• Long-term
36,026
38,589
39,988
38,378
4
Presentation
Economic Situation and Prospect in 2007
The 10th National Economic and Social
Development Plan (2007-2011)
Current Government’s Priorities
NESDB
5
The Philosophy of Sufficiency Economy
and the 10th National Economic
and Social Development Plan
Principle of the 10th Plan
• Guiding Philosophy is the Philosophy of Sufficiency Economy
Objectives
• People-Centered Development
• Balancing between the 3 capitals: economic,
social , natural resources and environment
• Leading to Green and Happiness Society
NESDB
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Frameworks of the 10th Plan
HM King’s Philosophy of "Sufficiency Economy”
The Middle Path
Moderation
Reasonableness
Wisdom Condition
(an application of knowledge
with due consideration and
prudence )
Leading to
“Immune”
System
Moral Condition
(honesty, integrity, diligence,
patience, perseverance)
ชีวิต/เศรษฐกิจ/สังคม
Life/Economic/Social
สมด ุล/มัน่ คง/ยัง่ ยืน
Balance/Stable/Sustainable
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Knowledge Based Economy
Globalization
Paradigm
shifts
Economic and social integration
(Free Trades, Capital Flow, Regulation)
Technology development
(Innovation, Indigenous Knowledge, IPR)
Social changes
(Aging Society, Consumer Behaviors)
Human capital mobility
(Free flow of people)
Environment and natural resource
(Energy, Water, Climate, Natural Disasters, NTMs)
NESDB
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5
1.
Develop Human
Resource Quality
and Prepare for
Knowledge
Society
10th Plan
2
Strengthen
Local
Communities for
Better Income
Distribution
Strategies
3
Restructuring
Economy
towards Balance
and
Competitiveness
for the Asia
Century
Increase Good
Governance for
Peaceful and
Orderly
Society
4
Improve Natural
Resource Base
and Good
Environment for
the Country
Development
Based on
Biodiversity
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Presentation
Economic Situation and Prospect in 2007
The 10th National Economic and Social
Development Plan (2007-2011)
Current Government’s Priorities
10
4 Priorities
• Political Reform
• Peace and National Unity
• Foundation for Sustainable Growth
and Better Income Distribution
• Legal Reform
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Progresses
Political Reform: The Constitution Drafting Assembly.
Peace and National Unity: Southern Border Provinces Administrative
Center reinstated.
Foundation for Sustainable Growth
and Better Income Distribution:
-continue liberalization of trade in goods and services
-neighboring countries development cooperation
-new investment opportunities: ECO car, petroleum exploration
and extraction, Independent Power Producers (IPP).
-alternative energies and Clean Development Mechanism
-infrastructure development: logistics system, mass transit system
-National Productivity Improvement Plan
-National Intellectual Infrastructure Plan
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Progresses
Legal Reform:
- Competition Law
- Foreign Business Act
- Conflict of Interests for Politicians and Government Officials Act
- Financial Business Act
- Deposit Insurance Agency Act
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Think Economic
and Social Strategy,
Think NESDB....
www.nesdb.go.th
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