The Global Energy Landscape
• The Problem of Energy
– Diminishing supply?
– Resources in unfriendly locations?
– Environmental damage?
• The Solution
– Adequate domestic supply
– Environmentally benign
– Conveniently transported
– Conveniently used
Towards a Sustainable Energy Future
200
150
Coal
208
Natural Gas
156
100
104
Total Renewables
50
52
Hydroelectric
Other Renewables
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
2005 totals:
2030 projections:
6
4
2
Nuclear
0
2020
0
2030
260,000,000,000 60W bulbs continuously
490 Q-Btu, 515 EJ,
720 Q-Btu, 760 EJ,
Towards a Sustainable Energy Future
8
12
260
Oil
Projections
18
History
Exa Joules (10 )
Energy, Quadrillion BTU
250
Equivalent Power (TW, 10 )
World Energy Consumption
16TW
24TW
86% fossil
81%
Source: US Energy Information Administration
World Energy Consumption
Source: US Energy Information Agency
264
8.4
211
6.7
158
Coal, actual
106
Towards a Sustainable Energy Future
Exa Joules (1018)
(annual)
5.0
3.3
52
1.7
0
0
Equivalent Power (TW, 1012)
How good is the EIA at making projections??
Fossil Fuel Supplies
Source: US Energy Information Administration
2.0E+05
(Exa)J
1.5E+05
Rsv = Reserves (90%)
Rsc = Resources (50%)
1.0E+05
Unconv
Conv
5.0E+04
0.0E+00
Oil
Rsv
Oil
Rsc
Gas
Rsv
Gas
Rsc
Coal
Rsv
Coal
Rsc
Source
Reserves, yrs
Resources, yrs
Total, yrs
Oil
13 - 20
10 – 35
23 - 55
Gas
11 - 25
7 – 40
18 - 65
Coal
32
270
300
56-77
287-345
Towards a Sustainable Energy Future
 400 yrs
Reserves History for American Coal
Courtesy: David Rutledge
Reserves, Gt
1,500
Coal Commission
(based on surveys by Marius Campbell of the USGS)
4,045 years
1,000
Paul Averitt (USGS)
2,136 years
1,433 years
500
0
1920
Bureau of Mines/EIA
(based
on Paul Averitt’s surveys)
368 years 270 years 236 years
1960
2000
“Hubbert Peak” type of analysis suggests 90% depletion by 2076
Towards a Sustainable Energy Future
US Energy Imports/Exports: 1949-2004
Source: US Energy Information Administration
Imports
6
25
Total
20
15
10
5
0
1950 1960 1970
Quad BTU
35
Exports
Total
5
Quad BTU
Quad BTU
35
30
Net
30
25
20
15
10
5
Petroleum
1980
1990
2000
4
Coal
3
2
Petroleum
1
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
• 65% of known petroleum reserves in Middle East
• 3% of reserves in USA, but 25% of world consumption
1957: Net Importer
0
1950
1960
1970
Towards a Sustainable Energy Future
1980
1990
2000
Environmental Outlook
Global CO2 levels
atmospheric CO2 [ppm]
340
330
320
310
2009: 385 ppm
Projections:
500-700 ppm by 2020
• Anthropogenic
300
Industrial
Revolution
– Fossil fuel (75%)
– Land use (25%)
290
280
270
1000
1200
1400
Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Towards a Sustainable Energy Future
1600
year
1800
2000
Environmental Outlook
CO2 in 2008: 385ppmv
300
275
250
-- CO2
-- CH4
-- T
700
+4
0
600
500
-4
200
400
-8
175
300
225
400
300
200
100
T relative to
present (°C)
CO2
CH4
(ppmv) (ppmv)
800
325
0
Thousands of years before present (Ky BP)
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001; http://www.ipcc.ch
N. Oreskes, Science 306, 1686, 2004; D. A. Stainforth et al, Nature 433, 403, 2005
Towards a Sustainable Energy Future
Future Scenarios
Courtesy: John Seinfeld
Most optimitistic scenario
Towards a Sustainable Energy Future
Centuries for CO2 to decay
Future Scenarios
Courtesy: John Seinfeld
Highly optimitistic scenario: stabilize at 380 ppm
(aerosols)
Towards a Sustainable Energy Future
Energy Outlook
Supply
• Uncertainty in assessing
• High geopolitical risk
• Rising costs
Environmental Impact
• Target, by 2050
– Stabilize CO2 at 550 ppm
• Requires
– 20 TW carbon-free power
– One 1-GW power plant
daily from now until then
Urgency
• Transport of CO2 or heat into deep oceans:
– 400-1000 years; CO2 build-up is cummulative
• Must make dramatic changes within next few years
Towards a Sustainable Energy Future
The Energy Solution
Courtesy: Nate Lewis
1.2 x
105
Solar
The need:
~ 20 TW by 2050
TW at Earth surface
600 TW practical
Wind
Biomass
2-4 TW extractable
5-7 TW gross
all cultivatable
land not used
for food
Tide/Ocean
Currents
2 TW gross
Geothermal
12 TW gross over land
small fraction recoverable
Nuclear
Waste disposal
60 yr uranium supply
Towards a Sustainable Energy Future
Hydroelectric
4.6
1.6
0.9
0.6
TW
TW
TW
TW
gross
technically feasible
economically feasible
installed capacity
Fossil with sequestration
1% / yr leakage -> lost in 100 yrs
A Sustainable Energy Cycle
C-free Source
Capture
e-
H2O, CO2
Solar power
plant
H2
???
Storage
Batteries
Hydrocarbon
Hydrides?
Liquid H2?
Delivery
e-
Utilization
Fuel cell
Towards a Sustainable Energy Future
H2O + CO2
A Sustainable Energy Cycle
C-free Source
Capture
e-
H2O, CO2
Solar power
plant
H2
???
Storage
Batteries
Hydrocarbon
Hydrides?
Liquid H2?
Delivery
e-
Utilization
Fuel cell
Towards a Sustainable Energy Future
H2O + CO2