THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS:
PRACTICAL TARGETS FOR REDUCING
EXTREME POVERTY
Integrated Approaches to Sustainable
Development Practice
For class on: 29 January 2008
John W McArthur, Columbia University
TODAY’S FIVE KEY TOPICS
• WHAT ARE THE MDGs & WHY ARE THEY
IMPORTANT?
• WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE MDGs?
• WHY ARE THERE SHORTFALLS?
• WHAT PRACTICAL STEPS CAN BE TAKEN?
• WHAT WILL IT COST?
THE MILLENNIUM PROMISE
We will spare no effort to free our fellow men, women
and children from the abject and dehumanizing
conditions of extreme poverty, to which more than a
billion of them are currently subjected.
- Millennium Declaration, September 2000
THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS
1.
Eradicate extreme poverty
and hunger
5. Improve maternal health
2.
Achieve universal primary
education
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria
and other diseases
3.
Promote gender equality
and empower women
7. Ensure environmental
sustainability
4.
Reduce child mortality
8. Develop a global partnership
for development
[VIDEO]
TODAY’S FIVE KEY TOPICS
• WHAT ARE THE MDGs & WHY ARE THEY
IMPORTANT?
• WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE MDGs?
• WHY ARE THERE SHORTFALLS?
• WHAT PRACTICAL STEPS CAN BE TAKEN?
• WHAT WILL IT COST?
GLOBAL MAP OF EXTREME POVERTY:
INFANT MORTALITY AND % UNDERWEIGHT
Source: UN Millennium Project/CIESIN, 2005
Average real GDP per capita growth (PPP$2000)
Regional Economic Growth Since 1980
8%
6%
4%
1980-2004
1990-2004
2%
0%
-2%
East Asia
Latin
& Pacific America &
Caribbean
Middle
East &
North
Africa
South Asia
SubSaharan
Africa
Source: [
]
Population Share in Extreme Poverty, 1981-2004
70
% living under $1/day
60
MDG Reference Date
South Asia
(1990)
50
East Asia &
Pacific
40
Sub-Saharan
Africa
30
Latin America
& Caribbean
20
Middle East &
North Africa
10
Europe &
Central Asia
0
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2004
Source: [
]
Distribution of $1/day poverty by region, 1981-2004
1600
Middle East &
North Africa
Population (millions)
1400
Latin America and
Caribbean
1200
Europe and Central
Asia
1000
800
East Asia Pacific
600
400
South Asia
200
Sub-Saharan
Africa
0
1981
1990
2004
Source: Chen and Ravallion 2007
Prevalence of undernourishment (%)
Hunger MDG
35
30
25
20
1992
15
2003
10
5
0
East Asia
& Pacific
Europe &
Central
Asia
Latin
Middle East South Asia
America &
& North
Caribbean
Africa
Source: [
SubSaharan
Africa
]
Primary school completion rate (%)
Education MDG
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990
2004
East Asia Europe &
Latin
& Pacific
Central America &
Asia
Caribbean
Middle
East &
North
Africa
South Asia
Source: [
SubSaharan
Africa
]
Deaths per 100,000 live births
Maternal mortality MDG
1000
800
600
2000
400
200
0
East Asia
& Pacific
Europe &
Central
Asia
Latin
Middle East South Asia
America &
& North
Caribbean
Africa
Source: [
SubSaharan
Africa
]
Population without access to
improved water source (%)
Water MDG
60
50
40
1990
30
2004
20
10
0
East Asia
& Pacific
Europe &
Central
Asia
Latin
America &
Caribbean
Middle
East &
North
Africa
South Asia
Source: [
SubSaharan
Africa
]
Under-5 deaths per 1,000 live births
Child Mortality MDG
200
175
150
125
1990
100
2005
75
50
25
0
East Asia Europe &
Latin
& Pacific
Central America &
Asia
Caribbean
Middle
East &
North
Africa
South
Asia
Source: [
SubSaharan
Africa
]
Source: JD Sachs
Source: [
]
GLOBAL MAP OF EXTREME POVERTY:
INFANT MORTALITY AND % UNDERWEIGHT
Source: UN Millennium Project/CIESIN, 2005
TODAY’S FIVE KEY TOPICS
• WHAT ARE THE MDGs & WHY ARE THEY
IMPORTANT?
• WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE MDGs?
• WHY ARE THERE SHORTFALLS?
• WHAT PRACTICAL STEPS CAN BE TAKEN?
• WHAT WILL IT COST?
FOUR REASONS FOR SHORTFALLS
• Governance failures
• Areas of specific policy neglect
• Poverty traps
• Pockets of poverty
Source: UN Millennium Project. 2005.
THE IMPORTANCE OF AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTIVITY
Cereal Yield, 1961-2004
5,000
4,500
East Asia &
Pacific
4,000
3,000
Latin America
& Caribbean
2,500
South Asia
2,000
Sub-Saharan
Africa
1,500
1,000
500
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
1970
1967
1964
0
1961
kg/hectare
3,500
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators 2005
GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF DROUGHT RISK
(mortality)
Source: [
]
ECOLOGICAL FACTORS CONDUCIVE TO
MALARIA
Source: Kiszewski et al., AJTMH, 2004
HUMAN VULNERABILITY INDEX:
Agriculture, Transport & Malaria risk
Source: []
TODAY’S FIVE KEY TOPICS
• WHAT ARE THE MDGs & WHY ARE THEY
IMPORTANT?
• WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE MDGs?
• WHY ARE THERE SHORTFALLS?
• WHAT PRACTICAL STEPS CAN BE TAKEN?
• WHAT WILL IT COST?
BASIC CONCEPTS:
GROWTH, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION & THE MDGs
Source: UN Millennium Project. 2005.
THE MDGs REQUIRE INTEGRATED STRATEGIES
ACROSS SECTORS
education
water
agricultural
productivity
health
environmental
management
infrastructure
gender
equality
PRACTICAL PROBLEMS
PROBLEM (e.g.)
•
Low food yield
•
Malaria
•
AIDS
•
Maternal mortality
•
Low primary enrolment
•
Lack of physical access to markets
PRACTICAL PROBLEMS => PRACTICAL SOLUTIONS
PROBLEM (e.g.)
INTERVENTION (e.g.)
Low food yield
Fertilizer, seeds, water
Malaria
Bednets, ACTs, spraying
AIDS
Anteretrovirals, condoms
Maternal mortality
Emergency obstetrical care
Low primary enrolment
Abolish school fees, introduce
school meals, train teachers
Lack of physical access to markets
Roads, ports
THE IMPORTANCE OF AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTIVITY
Cereal Yield, 1961-2004
5,000
4,500
East Asia &
Pacific
4,000
3,000
Latin America
& Caribbean
2,500
South Asia
2,000
Sub-Saharan
Africa
1,500
1,000
500
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
1970
1967
1964
0
1961
kg/hectare
3,500
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators 2005
THE ROLE OF INPUTS FOR AGRICULTURE
Fertilizer Use, 1961-2003
East Asia &
Pacific
2,000
Latin America
& Caribbean
1,500
South Asia
1,000
Sub-Saharan
Africa
500
0
19
61
19
65
19
69
19
73
19
77
19
81
19
85
19
89
19
93
19
97
20
01
100g/arable hectare
2,500
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators 2005
EARLY SUCCESS IN MALAWI
Source: [
]
THE MDGs ARE FEASIBLE
Countries can break out of poverty if:
1.
Broad-based integrated investments are implemented – at scale – in known
practical technologies for health, education, agriculture, infrastructure, and
environmental management
2.
Sound policies and governance are in place, including good economic
management
3.
Improved market access bolsters economic progress
But there is no “magic bullet”
THE MDGs REQUIRE GROWTH AND INVESTMENT
Growth is necessary, but not sufficient, for MDGs
• Some MDGs require direct investments regardless of economic growth
(e.g. maternal mortality, environmental sustainability)
• Reaching the poor & reducing inequality requires direct investments in
people, infrastructure & environment
AND
Public investments in the MDGs are critical for growth
• Private sector-led growth requires minimum standards in health,
education, infrastructure
• Direct investments must complement good economic policies
5 CORE ELEMENTS
OF AN MDG-BASED STRATEGY
1.
Ambition: Aims are at least as ambitious as MDG targets for 2015
2.
Scope: The range of sectors identified is broad enough to achieve all
the MDGs
3.
Practicality: For each sector, the strategy is based on a detailed,
bottom-up assessment of practical needs
4.
Timeline: The medium term strategy is nested in a 10-year framework
5.
Financing: The financing is aligned with needs
TODAY’S FIVE KEY TOPICS
• WHAT ARE THE MDGs & WHY ARE THEY
IMPORTANT?
• WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE MDGs?
• WHY ARE THERE SHORTFALLS?
• WHAT PRACTICAL STEPS CAN BE TAKEN?
• WHAT WILL IT COST?
$ per capita (USD 2002)
Source: [
]
$ billions (USD 2002)
SOURCES OF FINANCE: EXAMPLE OF GHANA
Source: [
]
CURRENT GLOBAL FINANCE EFFORT
Source: [
]
UNPACKING THE NUMBERS:
TODAY’S SUPPORT TO AFRICA
Source: OECD-DAC, 2006
MILLENNIUM VILLAGES
Source: JW McArthur
Source: C Bahadur
Source: JD Sachs
Source: JW McArthur
WHERE WE STAND WITH 7 YEARS TO GO
Are we on course to look back, in 2015, and say that
no effort was spared?
So far the record is mixed.
- Kofi Annan, August 2006