World Meteorological Organization
Working together in weather, climate and water
WMO
2nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial
Management of Large-scale Catastrophes
Session 2: Natural hazard awareness and disaster risk reduction education
The role of the WMO in natural hazard awareness and
disaster risk reduction education;
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.
Chief of WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme
September 24, 2009, Bangkok, Thailand
www.wmo.int
Potential role of Role of National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services within more comprehensive
National Disaster Risk Management Programmes
Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources
multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration
Risk Identification
Risk Reduction
Risk Transfer
Hazard databases
Hazard statistics
1
Climate forecasting
and trend analysis
Exposed assets &
vulnerability
Risk analysis tools
PREPAREDNESS:
early warning systems
emergency planning
CAT insurance & bonds
2
MITIGATION AND
PREVENTION:
Medium to long term sectoral
planning (e.g. zoning,
infrastructure, agriculture)
3
Weather-indexed
insurance and derivatives
Other emerging products
Information and Knowledge Sharing
Education and training
Systematically linking know-how to
capacity development projects
Monitoring and
Evaluation of
national practices
National and
Regional
Projects
•Implementation of
projects,
Training, Institutional
Capacities Building,
sharing good practices
and lessons learnt
linked to projects
Development of
Guidelines based on
Lessons Learnt
Identification and
Documentation of
Good Practices and
learning Lessons
Role of National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment
Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources
multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration
Risk Identification
Risk Reduction
Risk Transfer
Hazard databases
Hazard statistics
Climate forecasting
and trend analysis
Exposed assets &
vulnerability
Risk analysis tools
PREPAREDNESS:
early warning systems
emergency planning
MITIGATION AND
PREVENTION:
Medium to long term sectoral
planning (e.g. zoning,
infrastructure, agriculture)
CAT insurance & bonds
Weather-indexed
insurance and derivatives
Other emerging products
Information and Knowledge Sharing
Education and training
Systematic documentation of good
practices and guidelines initiated
Standardization of Hazard Data, metadata and
analysis tools
– Guidelines for floods, droughts, tropical cyclones and storm
surges and other meteorological hazards underway
Initiatives underway for standardization
of hazard information
for Floods, Droughts, Meteorological Hazards
1. Flood hazard data and mapping guidelines
(underway)
2. Drought assessment and mapping (underway)
3. Storm Surge hazard data and mapping
(underway)
4. Other meteorological hazards data and
mapping guidelines (initiated (March 2009)
• Severe Weather, Heat waves, Tropical
Cyclones
5. Tools to assess evolution of hazard trends in
the future …(next step)
FLOOD
First Implementation of Flood and Drought Hazard Mapping underway in
South Eastern Europe (with UNDP, World Bank, ISDR))
Partnership Development Projects with other UN Agencies
Role of National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services in Risk Reduction
Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources
multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration
Risk Identification
Risk Reduction
Risk Transfer
Hazard databases
Hazard statistics
Climate forecasting
and trend analysis
Exposed assets &
vulnerability
Risk analysis tools
PREPAREDNESS:
early warning systems
emergency planning
MITIGATION AND
PREVENTION:
Medium to long term sectoral
planning (e.g. zoning,
infrastructure, agriculture)
CAT insurance & bonds
Weather-indexed
insurance and derivatives
Other emerging products
Information and Knowledge Sharing
Education and training
What is an
Effective
EWS?
4
1
Community
Preparedness
National to local
governments
supported by
DRR plans, legislation
and coordination
mechanisms
5
2
COORDINATION AMONG
NATIONAL SERVICES
3
3
Meteorological
3
warnings
Hydrological
feedback
Geological
Marine
Health (etc.)
5
5
feedback
Capacity development in Multi-Hazard Early Warning
Systems with Focus on Institutional Coordination,
Cooperation and NMHSs
Guidelines
(Section 3)
Synthesis of Good Practices in Early Warning Systems and
Role of NMHS in Multi-hazard EWS
(Section 4)
Bangladesh
Cyclone
Preparedness
Programme
Cuba Tropical
Cyclone Early
Warning System
French “Vigilance
System”
Shanghai MultiHazard
Emergency
Preparedness
Programme
(Annex I)
(Annex II)
(Annex III)
(Annex IV)
Synthesis &
guidelines
developed
from four
“good practices”
first document of a series of guidelines that the WMO is
developing in the field of Early Warning Systems.
Systematic documentation of good practices
in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems
• Four good practices in Multi-Hazard EWS
Documented
Cuba, France, China/Shanghai, Bangladesh
• Guidelines on “Capacity Development in MultiHazard EWS with focus on Institutional Coordination
and NMHS,” nearly finalized
• Training package being published (Springer Verlag
2010)
Training workshops on Multi-Hazard Early
Warning Systems (2009-2010)
Focus: Institutional cooperation and coordination
Targeting: Directors of Disaster Risk Management and National
Metrological and Hydrological Services
Programme:
• Training on good practices in EWS
• Training in guidelines on « Capacity development in MultiHazard Early Warning Systems with Focus on Institutional
Coordination, Cooperation”
• Interactive discussions to assess participating countries capacities,
gaps and needs
• Opportunities for regional cooperation
• Outcomes are linked to development projects
Training workshops on Multi-Hazard Early
Warning Systems (2009-2010)
South East Europe
Central America and
the Carribeans
South East Asia
Southern and Eastern
Africa
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets
Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources
multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration
Risk Identification
Risk Reduction
Risk Transfer
Hazard databases
Hazard statistics
Climate forecasting
and trend analysis
Exposed assets &
vulnerability
Risk analysis tools
PREPAREDNESS:
early warning systems
emergency planning
MITIGATION AND
PREVENTION:
Medium to long term sectoral
planning (e.g. zoning,
infrastructure, agriculture)
CAT insurance & bonds
Weather-indexed
insurance and derivatives
Other emerging products
Information and Knowledge Sharing
Education and training
Requirements for Meteorological and Hydrological
information to support Financial Risk Transfer Dec
2007, WMO Headquarters
Participants: (8 re-insurers, 13 Met Services, WFP, World Bank, UNDP, WRMA)
USER Perspectives:
•
•
Information (data and forecasts):
–
Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data
–
Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, Other data value-added services (??)
–
Reliability, authoritative and timeliness of data (for contract design and settlement)
–
Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts (portfolio management and forward looking risk
analysis)
–
Long term trend analysis (long-term market development strategy)
Technical support and Service delivery
Meteorological Services Perspectives:
•
Need for awareness raising among Met services
•
Resources, ability and priorities to deliver
•
“Commercial” ,“Security” and “Turf” Issues associated with data accessibility
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html
Systematic documentation of good
practices and guidelines initiated
Training Materials to support financial risk
transfer markets
WMO/World Bank/WFP will be developing joint report on
lesson’s learnt from pilots
Information Service delivery: Experiences of National Meteorological
Services for provision of data and information to this market will be
documented (2009-2010)
Progress with Catastrophe (CAT) Insurance /
Bond and Weather Risk Management Markets
Catastrophe Insurance and Bond Markets
European Agricultural Risk
Weather Risk Management Markets (ART)
Hydro Electric Power Risk Contracts
Wind Power Risk Contracts
Southeastern Europe
Disaster Risk management Project
CAT Bond Markets
post Hurricane Andrew
UK Flood
CAT Bond
& Southeastern and Central European
Risk Insurance Facility
Indian Agricultural Risk
Heating Degree
Day Contracts
Caribbean
Catastrophe
Risk Insurance
Facility
Drought Risk Management
in Ethiopia
Malawi Drought
Risk Management
Pacific Risk
Insurance Facility
Developing Tools and Training on
Climate Forecasting and Analysis
tools
Statistical analysis of historical data
is only first estimate . Needs for
forward looking information to
augment statistical hazard analysis
and mapping
Impact of climate on sectors are linked to….
• Changing patterns of hydro-meteorological extremes
– Frequency, severity and location of droughts, floods,
tropical cyclones, heat waves, etc
• Accumulation of risk linked to deviations of
meteorological and hydrological conditions from
normal
– Variations and changes in the onset of seasons,
changes in the rainfall amounts and patters, etc.
Emerging Technologies (Weather and
Climate Time Scales)
Short- to
Medium-Range
Weather
0-14 days
Seasonal Forecasts
Short-Term Climate
months to seasons
Long-Term
Climate
decades to century
 Forward looking risk analysis for improved
planning and risk managment
 Utilization in the financial risk transfer markets
Droughts
Climate variability and change
and their impacts are not uniform
geographically
Trends in heavy rainfall
Trends in Frost and Heat
Waves
Need for production
of local climate
information…
Highly Resource
Intensive!
(IPCC, 2007)
IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
Global/Regional/National Cooperation
Framework For Provisions of Climate Services
Four Major Thrusts:
• Understanding of information needs of at-risk sectors
– Through partnerships (with UN, international and regional
agencies)
• Designation and coordination of network of global and
regional climate centers
– to faciliate provision of forecasting and analysis tools and
information to national centers
• Strengthen observation networks
• More targeted climate research
Global/Regional Network of WMO
Designated Climate Centers
ECMWF
Moscow
Exeter
Montreal
Beijing
Toulouse
Seoul
Tokyo
Washington
Lead Centre
for LRFMME
Gobal Producing Centres of
Long Range Forecasts (GPCs)
Pretoria
Melbourne
Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)
RCC Network Nodes (Pilot)
Lead Centre
for SVSLRF
SVSLRF: Standardized Verification System for Long Range Forecasts
LRFMME: Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
CLW/CLPA/WCAS
Climate Risk management Project in Africa
WMO/World Bank Project in Africa
Funded by GFDRR
•
Countries: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia,
Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and
Uganda
• Objectives: Development of climate information
based on observations and latest climate tools and
forecasting technologies
• Sectors: Agriculture and water resource
management
• Timeline of data: Different climate scales up to
20 years:
• Partners
– National: NMHS, sectors representatives
– International/Regional: World Bank,
– Technical: GlobalClimate Centers (US, UK,
ECMWF, Pretoria) and Regional centers (IGAD)
• Status: Project was launch on June 21
• World Bank project manager: Amal Talbi-Jordan
Thank You
For more information please contact:
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.
Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction
Programme
World Meteorological Organization
Tel. 41.22.730.8006
Fax. 41.22.730.8023
Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int
http://www.wmo.int/disasters