Statistical Indicators for Broad
Policy Purposes in Ireland
- Developing the Consensus
between Statistics and Politics
Donal Garvey, Director General, CSO,
Palermo, 12 November 2004
Presentation Describes

Institutional and political environment in Ireland
supporting moves towards evidence based policy
making
 institutional environment for statistics
 Social Partnership since the mid 1980s
 networking capability in a small country

“Measuring Ireland’s Progress” (December 2003)
Conclude With Some Discussion Items

Role of NSIs in informing the policy debate
 sure-footed and pro-active?
 cautious and reactive?

Importance of statistical networking
- indicators fairly new territory for all of us

Risks to the statistical system

What does society expect of a good NSI?
Institutional Environment for Statistics in
Ireland

Pre 1949
 Statistics Division in Ministry for Industry &
Commerce
 Operating under the Statistics Act, 1926

1949
 Establishment of CSO under the aegis of the
Taoiseach (Prime Minister)
 Debate in Parliament agreed on the need for an Office
independent of the influence of any Minister

Statistics Act, 1993 (operational from 1994)
Statistics Act, 1993

Underpinned legally the independence of the D-G
 professional methodology and statistical standards
 content of CSO publications
 timing and method of dissemination

Formally constituted National Statistics Board (NSB)
 small, advisory board
 very active
 highly influential people
Membership of the NSB

3 official members - an Assistant Secretary General
in Department of the Taoiseach and Department of
Finance and the D-G of the CSO ex-officio

3 nominees from users/providers of official statistics
 Irish Congress of Trade Unions (ICTU)
 Irish Business & Employees Federation (IBEC)
 farming organisations

2 others nominated by the Taoiseach - including
Professor of Economics who chairs the Board
Economic Challenges in Ireland in 1980’s
17% mid 1980’s

Unemployment 10% 1981

Adversarial industrial relations - huge loss of work
days in industrial disputes

Government debt increasing rapidly

Very high outward migration



Sense of national crisis
Discussions in the National Economic & Social
Council (NESC)
Strategy for Development 1986-1990 (NESC)
Emergence of Social Partnership Model
in 1987

6 three-year Social Partnership Agreements

First 3 focussed mainly on unemployment
negotiated by Government, ICTU, IBEC, farmers

Subsequent agreements also dealt with distribution
issues (taxation, welfare) and social inclusion
These negotiations also involved groups with a focus
on women’s issues and groups representing the
disadvantaged working to counter social exclusion
Networking Links

Some NSB members are heavily involved in the
discussions at the NESC and Social Partnership

Particularly important is the role of the Taoiseach’s
Department in chairing the discussions in both fora
The statistical implications of emerging policy can be
raised both formally and informally in the NSB - and
the CSO is aware of (and can influence) developments
Social Partnership (SP) and Statistics

As the negotiated areas of public policy widened, participants
in the SP process began to realise they needed to track the
outcomes for society

NESC published 2 reports in 2002 on statistical indicators
 one proposed 20 headline and 60 background indicators to
benchmark progress on the Programme for Prosperity and
Fairness (SP 2000-2002)
 the other 18 headline and 12 background indicators in the
context of sustainable development
Sustaining Progress 2003 contained a number of
references to the CSO including a specific request to
develop a set of national progress indicators
NSB and Indicators

NSB had been developing its Strategy for Statistics, 20032008
 Strong role for CSO supporting evidence based policy
making

NSB concerns that a proliferation of indicators (some
possibly sub-optimal) could result in a misallocation of
the statistics budget but more importantly large programme
budgets

2003 NSB report Developing Irish Social and Equality
Statistics to meet Policy Needs and a Government agreement
that CSO should publish a national progress indicators report
by end-2003
CSO Approach

Government and key stakeholder requests for a set of
national progress indicators. CSO had informed these
requests

Manageable set of indicators with minimal text
(volume 1) - professional, independent and balanced
- public confidence

Inform and educate users on the national and international
context around the statistical indicators debate (volume 2)

Avoid detailed advance consultations - role of first report
to be clearly flagged as a public consultation document
Conceptual Framework (Volume 2)

National Progress Indicators:
provide a high level analysis of the economic, social and
environmental situation in Ireland, intended to provide a
context for broad discussions with the social partners and
society generally

Decided to structure the selected indicators within the
broad “Domains” of policy interest and by “Themes”
within those domains

In 12 appendices, information was provided on the
domains, themes and indicators used or proposed by
4 Irish, 5 international body and 3 other country
(ONS, CBS Netherlands and the ABS) reports
Domains Used


10 Domains were selected
 Economy
 Innovation & Technology
 Employment &
Unemployment
 Social Cohesion
 Education





Health
Population
Housing
Crime
Environment
Ultimately 108 indicators were grouped within 48
themes within these domains
Criteria for Selecting Indicators

The European Commission has identified criteria for
assessing the quality of indicators
 Easy to read and understand
 Policy relevant
 Mutually consistent
 Timely availability
 Comparable across countries
 Reliable sources
Benchmarking
It was decided, in so far as it was achievable, to prepare
the indicators in both a national and international context

National Context
 longer timespan
 regional breakdown

International Context: the 25 EU Member States
Within this broad frame of guidance, experienced
subject matter statisticians within the CSO signed
off on the indicators
Release Strategy

Maximise buy-in across a broad sweep of society

Launched by the Taoiseach and D-G of the CSO

Pre-Christmas social partnership function (well
attended)
 influential people from stakeholder organisations
 senior people from policy departments

A typical CSO press release - balance around “good
progress” and “poor progress” indicators
Stressed that the document was intended as a kind of
public consultation - with feedback welcomed
Reaction and Feedback

Very positive and widespread media reaction

Substantial newspaper articles by economic and social
commentators

Referred to in parliamentary debate

Used by participants in social partnership process
Formal feedback
 repeat on an annual basis
 similar reports for regions/counties
 comparable international data appreciated
Key Outcomes for Society


Which are they?
How are they
defined?



Measured
Evaluated
Benchmarked
Published
 No controversy
 Transparency
 UN Principles
Maximum public trust and confidence
Strong NSI role “Honest Broker”
NSI “Quality Mark”
No debate on unemployment rate or CPI with
disaggregations
How about

Hospital waiting time
 by medical procedure
 by region or health area

Literacy level with disaggregations
What will society expect of the NSI?
Challenge for NSIs

Prepared to be pro-active in informing key outcomes
for society

Statistical indicators to support evidence based
policy making

UN fundamental principles
NSI “approved”
administrative data
 no Ministerial influence in context/timing of
statistics
 recent example: crime statistics
OECD etc. discussions to support these developments
Risks for NSIs

Political sensitivities when statistical indicators are
used as performance measures to monitor service
delivery efficiency

Political instincts to publish only positive indicators?

NSI role must not become a Comptroller and
Auditor General type role!

Could envisage behaviours to “improve” the
indicator while perhaps “disimproving” the service
delivery
Thank You