OECD
World
Forum
onon
Key
Indicators
OECD
World
Forum
Key
Indicators
Statistics,
Statistics,Knowledge
Knowledgeand
andPolicy
Policy
Palermo,
10-13
November
2004
Palermo,
10-13
November
2004
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
1
Measurement of Government Output
and Productivity for the National
Accounts
“The Atkinson Review”
Joe Grice
Executive Director, Atkinson Review
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Subject of Review
= National Accounts
Purposes and Limits of National Accounts
• Macro-economic management
• Measurement contribution of economic
activities to welfare
• Coherent with, but different from, micromeasures of efficiency of service providers or
agency targets
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Timetable
• UK National Statistician, Len Cook,
commissioned Review, December
2003
• Interim Report published, July 2004
• Final Report will be published January
2005
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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A Long-Running
Story
• Conventional Approach Output = Inputs
Assumes zero productivity growth
• SNA 1993 approach DIRECT measurement of
output
European Implementation
• ESA 1995
• Handbook on price and volume measures in
national accounts 2001
• EU Decision of 2002
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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ONS Programme of Introducing
Direct Output Measures 1998Function
Spending in When
2000
introduced
Main components of
existing output indicator
Health
30.3%
1998
DH Cost -weighted
activity index
Education
17.1%
1998
Pupil numbers with
0.25% quality adjustment
Social protection – social
security administration
2.7%
1998
Number of benefit claims
for 12 largest benefits
Public order and safety –
prisons, courts and
probation
3.0%
2000
Public order and safety –
Fire
1.1%
2001
Social protection –
personal social services
7.4%
2001
Number of prisoner
nights, number of court
cases and cost-weighted
activity index for
probation
Number of fires attended
of different types, other
special services
Number of adults and
children in care. Number
of hours of home help
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Key Findings of
Interim Report
• ONS among the first to introduce direct measures, but
“first generation” methods need to be refined (as
already in health).
• Interim Report sets out a principled approach within
the framework set by international guidelines.
• Important to improve measures of government inputs
as well as outputs.
• Need for increased statistical resources to be allocated
to measuring government outputs and inputs
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Principles
Output
•Output should be measured by incremental contribution to
individual or collective welfare ie the added value of service
concerned
•Start from services provided, and seek indicators that give full
coverage.
•Value should be seen as adjusted for quality.
•Formal criteria should be established for extending direct
output measures to further services.
•Measures should cover the whole of the UK.
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
8
Added Value
Input
Activities
Output
Outcome
• Parallel with market output
• Measures incremental contribution to
individual or collective welfare
• Value depends on quality and context
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Principles
•
•
•
•
Inputs and Productivity
Measures of inputs should be as comprehensive
as possible, and should include capital services
Consideration should be given to the split
between current and capital spending
Criteria should be established for price
deflators applied to input spending series
Independent corroborative evidence should be
sought on government productivity, as part of a
process of “triangulation”
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Triangulation
Outputs
divided by
= Productivity
Inputs
… we need to work on all three.
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Necessary Work
Programmes (1)
• Review has already established work
programmes with Departments covering key
areas
• Report sets out questions that need to be
addressed in each field.
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Necessary Work
Programmes (2)
• Health: improved measures introduced in June 2004;
further work on quality adjustment , UK coverage, GP
usage; productivity article to be published
• Education: improved volume and attainment
measures, exploration of quality adjustments, and
value of education approach, possible satellite account.
• Public Order and Safety: work on division between
collective and individual services, alternative output
measures, UK coverage
• Social Protection: work on improved coverage, UK
coverage, relation with market sector.
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Final Report (1)
To be published in January 2005
Will draw on responses to Interim Report
and discussions with international
organisations and national statistical
agencies
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Final Report (2)
• Will revise and refine properties from Interim
Report
• Will report progress on the key agendas…
• …and propose ways forward in each case
**********
Then for Len Cook, as UK National
Statistician, to decide whether to accept
recommendations
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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