NCEP Update:
Review of Progress in Operational
Weather, Climate and Ocean Forecasts
Louis W. Uccellini
Director, NCEP
University of Maryland
November 2, 2006
“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Prediction Services Begin”
Overview
• Define NCEP
• “Seamless Suite” of forecast products: climate/weather linkage
• Recent Advances
–
–
–
–
–
Seasonal to Interannual/Climate Forecast System
Ocean Prediction/HYCOM
“Medium range” Days 4-7/North American Ensemble Forecast System
Days1-3: Winter Weather Desk/Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System
Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
• Performance Metrics
• Future
– Community Models
– Multi-model Ensembles
• New building
– NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (Maryland)
2
Define NCEP
3
The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of
Products and Forecast Services
To Serve Diverse
Customer Base
Observe
e.g., National Association of
State Energy Officials,
Emergency Managers, Water
Resource Agencies, …
Products & Forecast Services
Process
Central
Guidance
Local
Offices
NCEP
Respond &
Feedback
IBM Supercomputer at
Gaithersburg, MD
Computer Center
Distribute
Research, Development and Technology Infusion
Feedback
4
The Environmental Forecast Process
Observations
Data
Assimilation
Analysis
Model Forecast
Post-processed Model Data
Numerical
Forecast
System
Forecaster
User (public, industry…)
5
NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate
Weather and Ocean Products
Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service
Mission: NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather,
ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world.
NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with
partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and
support the nation’s growing need for environmental information.
Aviation Weather Center
Space Environment Center
Storm Prediction Center
NCEP Central Operations
Climate
Prediction Center
Environmental Modeling Center
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Ocean Prediction Center
Total FTE: 430
161 Contractors/47 Visitors
Tropical Prediction Center
Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for
climate, weather and ocean prediction services.
6
NCEP Employment Summary
• Civil Service Positions
– 430 civil servant positions
– Average 32 hires/year at all levels
– 2-4 entry-level hires/year
• Contract Positions
– Average 140 contractors/year (over last 4 years)
– Currently have 161 contractors
– Approximately 28 contractor vacancies/year
• Student Programs
– Average number of student interns - 6 (SCEP/STEP)
http://www.weather.gov/eeo/StudentResearchOpportunities.htm)
– 16 Summer hires in 2006 through various programs
(http://epp.noaa.gov/ , http://www.oesd.noaa.gov/Hollings_info.html )
7
What Does NCEP Do?
“From the Sun to the Sea”
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts
Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual
El Nino – La Nina Forecast
Weather Forecasts to Day 7
Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather
Aviation (Turbulence, Icing)
High Seas Forecasts and Warnings
Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and
Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather
International and National Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts
Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations
8
Transition Test Beds Being Developed throughout NCEP
Service – Science Linkage
with the Outside Community
• EMC
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
CPC
TPC
HPC
SPC
SEC
AWC
OPC
WRF Developmental Test Center, Joint
Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
Climate Test Bed
Joint Hurricane Test Bed
Hydrometeorological Test Bed*
Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL
Solar Test Bed
FAA Aviation Test Bed with NCAR RAP*
linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and
Analysis Branch
* Under development
9
Seamless Suite of Forecast Products
Climate-Weather Linkage
10
NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast
Products Spanning Climate and Weather
Service Center Perspective
Forecast
Uncertainty
Years
Outlook
Seasons
Months
Warnings & Alert
Coordination
Hours
Week 2 Hazards Assessment
6-10 Day Forecast
NDFD, Days 4 -7
HPC
Days
SPC
OPC
AWC
TPC
SEC
Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3
Tropical Storms to Day 5
Severe Weather to Day 3
•
•
Minutes
11
Environment
State/Local
Planning
Commerce
Health
Energy
Ecosystem
Recreation
Reservoir
Control
Agriculture
Hydropower
Fire Weather
Protection of
Life & Property
Benefits
Transportation
Watches
Climate/Weather
Linkage
1 Week
Space
Operation
Forecasts
CPC
2 Week
Flood Mitigation
& Navigation
Threats
Assessments
Forecast Lead Time
Guidance
NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast
Products Spanning Climate and Weather
Forecast
Uncertainty
Years
Outlook
Seasons
Months
North American Ensemble
Forecast System
1 Week
Climate/Weather
Linkage
Global Forecast System
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast
Days
Ocean Model
North American Forecast
Hours
Hurricane Model
Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation
Warnings & Alert
Coordination
Minutes
Dispersion Models for DHS
12
Environment
State/Local
Planning
Commerce
Health
Energy
Ecosystem
Recreation
Reservoir
Control
Agriculture
Hydropower
Fire Weather
Protection of
Life & Property
Benefits
Transportation
Watches
2 Week
Space
Operation
Forecasts
Climate Forecast System
Flood Mitigation
& Navigation
Threats
Assessments
Forecast Lead Time
Guidance
2007 NCEP Production Suite
Atmospheric Model Dependencies
Ensemble
Hurricane
NAEFS
Global
Data
Assimilation
Global
GFDL
SREF
GFS
Climate
N
D
A
S
CFS
MOM3
WRF-NMM
WRF-ARW
ETA
RSM
Regional
NAM – WRF
HYCOM
Ocean
Dispersion
Sev
Wx
WRF-NMM
WRF-ARW
NMM
Air Quality
NOAH Land Surface Model
Forecas
t
Rapid Update
Cycle
13
L D A S
Computing Capability
Primary Weather
$13.9 M
Primary Climate
$5.3 M
Backup
$7.2 M
Total:
$26.4 M
Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)
•Receives Over 210 Million Global Observations Daily
•Sustained Computational Speed: 1.485 Trillion Calculations/Sec
•Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day
•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)
•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)
•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)
•3x upgrade scheduled for 2006 4th Q delivery
14
Recent Advances
15
NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast
Products Spanning Climate and Weather
Forecast
Uncertainty
Years
Outlook
Seasons
Months
Warnings & Alert
Coordination
1 Week
Days
North American Ensemble
Forecast System
HYCOM
Ocean
Model
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast
Hours
Minutes
16
Environment
State/Local
Planning
Commerce
Health
Energy
Ecosystem
Recreation
Reservoir
Control
Agriculture
Hydropower
Fire Weather
Protection of
Life & Property
Benefits
Transportation
Watches
2 Week
Space
Operation
Forecasts
Climate Forecast System
Flood Mitigation
& Navigation
Threats
Assessments
Forecast Lead Time
Guidance
The NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System
(implemented August 24, 2004)
1.
2.
3.
4.
Atmospheric component
•
•
•
Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03)
T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical
Recent upgrades in model physics
•
•
•
•
GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998)
1/3°x1° in tropics; 1°x1° in extratropics; 40 layers
Quasi-global domain (74°S to 64°N)
Free surface
•
•
Once-a-day coupling
Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology
 Solar radiation (Hou, 1996)
 cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998)
 gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995)
 cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997)
Oceanic component
Coupled model
Calibrated on past 38 years
17
Climate Forecast System Availability
• Real-time 2x daily, 9-month forecasts, monthly
ensemble of 40-60 members.
• 15-member reforecasts per month (1981–2005)
– Calibration
– Skill estimates
– Analog and statistical forecasts
7 day average centered on March 8
• The website for real time data retrieval is at:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.fcst
• The climatological data is at:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.clim/
• Complete documentation available at:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/cfs_data/cfs_data.pdf
18
19
20
THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED
Priorities:
Climate
Climate
Community
Community
Climate
Climate
Test
TestBed
Bed
Research
Research&&
Development
Development
NOAA
NOAA
Climate
Climate
Forecast
Forecast
Operations
Operations
• Improve Climate Forecast System
• Assess Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction
System
• Fully Utilize Climate Reanalysis – An
Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System
• Develop Climate Forecast Products for
Decision Support
ssion: to accelerate the transition of research and development into
proved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.
Mission: To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate
research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb/
21
Current Projects By
Programmatic Theme:
1)
NOAA/NCEP Climate Forecast System Improvements
Ocean Component of the NCEP ENSO CFS (PI: McPhaden, PMEL)
Improvement of the GODAS at NCEP (PI’s: Xue and Behringer, NCEP)
Using Initial Tendency Errors to Reduce Systematic Errors (PI: Delsole, COLA)
Development of Neural Network Emulations of Model Physics for CFS (PI: M. Fox-Rabinovitz, UMD)
NCEP Component of the NOAA Core Project for GAPP (PI: K. Mitchell, NCEP)
The NAME Climate Process Team (PI: J. Schemm, NCEP)
2)
Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System
Infrastructure for Multi-model Ensembles at the NOAA CTB (PI’s: Leetmaa, GFDL; Lord, NCEP)
Explore MME with international operational centers
3)
Climate Reanalysis – An Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System
Regional Climate Data Assimilation System (R-CDAS) / NAME Data Impact (PI: K. Mo, NCEP)
4)
Climate Forecast Products for Decision Support
Consolidation of Multi method Seasonal Forecasts at CPC (PI: van den Dool, NCEP)
A Drought Monitoring and Early Warning System for the United States (PI: K. Mo, NCEP)
5)
Assess development work, upgrade the CFS in FY10 and improve CFS products.
22
Ocean Prediction
• NCEP to provide “backbone” support for
operational delivery of ocean model forecasts
– In response to NOAA Science Advisory Board Report
23
NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast
Products Spanning Climate and Weather
Forecast
Uncertainty
Years
Outlook
Seasons
Months
Warnings & Alert
Coordination
1 Week
Days
North American Ensemble
Forecast System
HYCOM
Ocean
Model
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast
Hours
Minutes
24
Environment
State/Local
Planning
Commerce
Health
Energy
Ecosystem
Recreation
Reservoir
Control
Agriculture
Hydropower
Fire Weather
Protection of
Life & Property
Benefits
Transportation
Watches
2 Week
Space
Operation
Forecasts
Climate Forecast System
Flood Mitigation
& Navigation
Threats
Assessments
Forecast Lead Time
Guidance
Observations
NASA-NOAA-DOD
JCSDA
Satellite
(AVHRR, JASON, QuikSCAT)
AMSR, GOES,
AIRS, JASON, WindSat,
MODIS
Advanced
ODA Techniques
In situ
(ARGO, Buoys, Ships)
Data Cutoff
CFS: 2 week data cutoff
RTOFS: 24 hour data cutoff
OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION
CLIMATE FORECAST
CFS-GODAS
OCEAN FORECAST
RT-OFS-GODAE
Shared history,
NCO/ODA
coding, and data
EMC
processing
NOPP-JPL (ECCO)
MOM-3  MOM-4  HOME
NOPP
EMC
OPNL OCEAN FORECASTS HYCOM  HOME
Climate Forecast System
Real-Time Ocean Forecast System
25
http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/
Real-Time Ocean Prediction with HYCOM
• Goal: to develop and implement operational, high
resolution ocean prediction systems for the Global
Oceans and Basins
• NCEP Partners with
• University of Miami/RSMAS
• NRL Stennis, NRL Monterey, FNMOC
• NOAA PMEL, AOML
• Los Alamos National Laboratory
• Others (international, commercial)
Chesapeake Bay
• Hybrid isopycnal-sigma-pressure ocean
model (called Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model
– HYCOM)
•Implemented December 2005
26
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/
RT-OFS
Products
27
North American Ensemble Forecast System
28
NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast
Products Spanning Climate and Weather
Forecast
Uncertainty
Years
Outlook
Seasons
Months
Warnings & Alert
Coordination
1 Week
Days
North American Ensemble
Forecast System
HYCOM
Ocean
Model
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast
Hours
Minutes
29
Environment
State/Local
Planning
Commerce
Health
Energy
Ecosystem
Recreation
Reservoir
Control
Agriculture
Hydropower
Fire Weather
Protection of
Life & Property
Benefits
Transportation
Watches
2 Week
Space
Operation
Forecasts
Climate Forecast System
Flood Mitigation
& Navigation
Threats
Assessments
Forecast Lead Time
Guidance
North American Ensemble Forecast
System
International project to produce operational multi-center
ensemble products
• Combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA
– Now:CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 56/day out to 16 days
– ’07 – CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 80/day out to 16 days
• Generates products for
– Intermediate users: forecasters at NCEP, WFOs, academia,
media, private sector, …
– Specialized users: hydrologic applications in all three countries
– End users: forecasts for public distribution
After bias correction
in US, Canada (MSC) and Mexico (NMSM)
• Future activities
– Adding products (probabilistic in nature)
– Incorporating ensemble data from
other centers (e.g., FNMOC)
– Unified evaluation/verification procedures
Probabilistic skill
extended
1-3 days
Raw ensemble
30
NAEFS Products
• NAEFS basic product list
– 11 functionalities
• Ensemble mean,
spread, probabilities,
etc.
– 50 variables
• U,v,t,z,CAPE,
precip type, etc.
– 7 domains
• Global, NH, NA, CONUS, SA, Caribbean, Africa
• Over 600 products requested by users (will be supplied via
priority order)
– Graphics
• Available on NAWIPS at NCEP Centers
– Grids
• NAWIPS
• ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/grns/prod
• NDGD in planning phase (Aug 07)
31
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System
32
NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast
Products Spanning Climate and Weather
Forecast
Uncertainty
Years
Outlook
Seasons
Months
Warnings & Alert
Coordination
1 Week
Days
North American Ensemble
Forecast System
HYCOM
Ocean
Model
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast
Hours
Minutes
33
Environment
State/Local
Planning
Commerce
Health
Energy
Ecosystem
Recreation
Reservoir
Control
Agriculture
Hydropower
Fire Weather
Protection of
Life & Property
Benefits
Transportation
Watches
2 Week
Space
Operation
Forecasts
Climate Forecast System
Flood Mitigation
& Navigation
Threats
Assessments
Forecast Lead Time
Guidance
Short Range Ensemble Forecast
21 members twice per day
87 hrs from 9 and 21Z
Resolution 32km/60 levels
Mean and spread charts
0.01” snow
available for forecaster use
Developing products on probability of snow and ice
accumulation
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/SREF.html
34
SREF Upgrades
FY2006
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Added six members twice per day (WRF ARW & WRF NMM) (Dec ‘05)
Run SREF 4 times per day (03, 09, 15 and 21 UTC) (June, 2006)
Implement Grid Based Bias Correction
Improve Probabilistic verification
Develop spread information
Add WRF BUFR Files
Implement ensemble mean BUFR files
35
SREF Enhancement with 6 WRF-based Members
Chance that truth is
Normalized Outlier
of 850T (8/25/05-9/24/05)
outside
ensemble
range
RMS Error
850T (8/25/05-9/24/05)
2.5
24
2.3
chance truth to be out of ensemble range (%)
15-mem
21-mem
12km NAM
2.1
1.9
rmse (C)
1.7
1.5
1.3
15 member
1.1
0.9
21 member
0.7
15-mem
21-mem
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
0.5
9
15
21
27
33
39
Forecast Hours
45
51
57
63
9
15
21
27
33
39
45
51
57
Forecast Hours
36
63
New Impact Graphics from SREF
• Probability event will last more than 12, 24, 48 hrs
• Probability visibility will be reduced to 1/2, 1/4, or
1/8 mile in winter precip
• Probability winter precip rate will be more than 1,
2, or 3" per hr
• Probability road sensor will detect winter precip
(relative to normal) “snow on road”
• Probability Blizzard Criteria will be met
• Probability Freezing Rain .01" or more will
accumulate on any surface
• Probability NWS Winter Storm Warning criteria
will be met (under construction)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/
37
NWS Winter Weather Desk
Time line: Sep 15 – April 1
Participants
NCEP HPC
Provide SREF based Winter Wx guidance
Collaborate with WFOs (Chat Room Technology)
WFOs
All CONUS WFOs
Use guidance from NCEP to produce coordinated Winter Storm
Watches/Warnings
Products: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
24 h probability (low, moderate, high) of meeting/exceeding
4”, 8”, 12” snow, 0.25” freezing rain (for day 1, 2, 3)
72h Low tracks graphic and discussion
38
39
12Z, Feb 10, 2006
12Z, Feb 11, 2006
12Z, Feb 12, 2006
12Z, Feb 13, 2006
40
Daily Weather Map Web Site - http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dwm/dwm.shtml
41
≥ 4 inches
≥ 8 inches
Day 2 Snow Accum Probability
Valid 00Z Feb 12 - 00Z Feb 13
≥ 12 inches
42
43
44
Regional Stats
WR
WWE1
01-02’
WWE2
02-03’
WWE3
03-04’
WWD
04-05’
WWD
05-06’
CR
WWE1
01-02’
WWE2
02-03’
WWE3
03-04’
WWD
04-05’
WWD
05-06’
# WFO
NA
NA
10
ALL
ALL
# WFO
NA
8
33
ALL
ALL
POD
NA
NA
.88
.88
.86
POD
NA
.90
.88
.92
.91
FAR
NA
NA
.27
.30
.36
FAR
NA
.40
.45
.32
.38
CSI
NA
NA
.67
.64
.58
CSI
NA
.57
.51
.65
.53
LT Warn
NA
NA
14
16
16
LT Warn
NA
13
13
17
17
SR
WWE1
01-02’
WWE2
02-03’
WWE3
03-04’
WWD
04-05’
WWD*
05-06’
ER
WWE1
01-02’
WWE2
02-03’
WWE3
03-04’
WWD*
04-05’
WWD*
05-06’
# WFO
NA
NA
11
ALL
ALL
# WFO
8
23
23
ALL
ALL
POD
NA
NA
.92
.90
.85
POD
.89
.90
.92
.92
.91
FAR
NA
NA
.38
.39
.48
FAR
.33
.30
.32
.30
.35
CSI
NA
NA
.59
.57
.48
CSI
.62
.65
M
.66
.61
LT Warn
NA
NA
9
9
11
LT Warn
13
15
18
21
19
* Oct - Mar
45
Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
Daily Satellite & Radar Observation Count
2005 210 M obs
2003-4
125 M obs
Count (Millions)
Level 2 radar data 2 B
2002 100 M obs
1990
2000
2010
2010-10%of obs
Five Order of Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data Over Next Ten Years
46
JCSDA Mission and
Vision
• Mission: Accelerate and improve the quantitative use
of research and operational satellite data in weather
and climate analysis and prediction models
• Near-term Vision: A weather and climate analysis
and prediction community empowered to effectively
assimilate increasing amounts of advanced satellite
observations
• Long-term Vision: An environmental analysis and
prediction community empowered to effectively use
the integrated observations of the GEOSS – and be
ready for NPOESS at “Day 1” after launch
47
JCSDA Major Accomplishments
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Common assimilation infrastructure at NOAA and NASA
Community radiative transfer model V2 released
Common NOAA/NASA land data assimilation system
Interfaces between JCSDA models and external researchers
Operational Implementations Include:
Snow/sea ice emissivity model – permits 300% increase in sounding data
usage over high latitudes – improved forecasts
MODIS winds, polar regions, - improved forecasts
AIRS radiances – improved forecasts
New generation, physically based SST analysis - Improved SST
Preparation for advanced satellite data such as METOP (IASI/AMSU/MHS),
DMSP (SSMIS), COSMIC GPS data, EOS AMSR-E, GOES-R
Impact studies of POES MHS, EOS AIRS/MODIS, Windsat, DMSP
SSMIS……. on NWP through EMC parallel experiments
48
N. Hemisphere 500 mb AC Z
20N - 80N Waves 1-20
1 Jan - 27 Jan '04
1
Anomaly Correlation
0.95
0.9
0.85
Ops
0.8
Ops+AIRS
0.75
0.7
0.65
0.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Forecast [days]
Figure 3(b). 500hPa Z Anomaly Correlations for the GFS with (Ops.+AIRS) and without
49
(Ops.) AIRS data, Northern hemisphere, January 2004
Impact of AIRS increased spatial data density/improved QC
(Snow, SSI/eo/April 2005/nw)
N. Hemisphere 500 mb AC Z
20N - 80N Waves 1-20
10 Aug - 20 Sep '04
Anomaly Correlation
1
0.95
Cntl AIRS
SpEn AIRS
0.9
0.85
0.8
0.75
0
1
2
3
Forecast [days]
4
5
50
Performance Metrics
-- Models --
51
GFS Upgrade
GFS Upgrade
52
53
Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page
Comms
Upgrade
Number of Hits (Millions)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
JUL
2001
JAN
JUL
2002
JAN
JUL
2003
JAN
JUL
2004
JAN
JUL
2005
JAN
JUL
2006
54
Performance Metrics
-- Forecasters --
55
Impact of Models on Day 1 Precipitation Scores
(DOC GPRA goal)
0.35
HPC Forecasters Add Value
0.25
Human(HPC)
ETA
0.2
Linear
(Human(HPC))
Linear (ETA)
Correlations
0.15
Models provide basis
for improvement
0.1
Of HPC with:
0.05
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
0
1991
Threat Score
0.3
Eta: 0.99
GFS: 0.74
NGM: 0.85
56
57
Day 4 Gridded Temperature Forecast
Max Temp
Min Temp
Valid November 6, 2006
58
NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors
600
Major Upgrades in Global and
Hurricane Numerical models
500
Advances Related
To USWRP
400
300
1997-2004 trendline
200
100
1987-1996 trendline
1970-1986 trendline
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
0
1970
Error (nautical
(nautical miles)
Error
miles)
700
Year
Year
59
60
Day 7
Day 5
Day 3
In last 10 years, HPC forecasts have added 2 days of skill
Future
• Community Models
• Multi-Model Ensembles
62
Future
Explicit Cores
(e.g., Hurricane, Dispersion, Aviation)
C
M
I
NCAR
ARW
NCEP
NMM
• Community models
– Weather Research Forecast model
• Developmental Test Center (Boulder)
– Outreach to academic community
– Assessment of new model components
• Major implementation – replaced Eta in June 06
63
Model Suite of the Future (2007-2008)
Ensemble
Hurricane
NAEFS
G
G
S
I
Global
WRF
SREF
GFS
Climate
R
G
S
I
CFS
MOM3
WRF-NMM
WRF-ARW
ETA
RSM
Regional
HYCOM
Ocean
Dispersion
Sev
Wx
WRF-NMM
WRF-ARW
NAM - WRF
NOAH Land Surface Model
Chem WRF
Air Quality
Forecas
t
Rapid Refresh
WRF
64
L D A S
Multi-Model Ensembles Issue
• In 5-10 years will all forecasts be based on multi-model
ensemble approach?
• Climate Forecast System
• North American Ensemble Forecast System
• Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System
• Oceans
• Space Weather
• Answer(s) will have enormous implications for NCEP
operational computer allocations
65
Multi-Model Ensembles
• Enormous implications for NCEP links to the research community
• How do we link all the players?
• Operational centers
• NCAR/NASA/DOE/Universities
• How do we link data assimilation infrastructure (all data types)?
• Ensemble-based Kalman Filter
• 3D or 4D Var
• How do we factor into transition process?
• Research to Operations AND Operations to Research
• Many issues will influence NCEP’s participation in THORPEX
(Zoltan Toth, focal point)
66
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate
Prediction
• Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF
• Includes housing 850+ Federal employees, contractors, and
visiting scientists
• 5 NCEP Centers
• NESDIS research and satellite
services
• OAR Air Resources
Laboratory
• Begin move to new
facility September ’07;
complete by Feb ’08
• Space for 40 visitors
• Groundbreaking
occurred for March 13, 2006
67
NOAA Center for
Weather and
Climate Prediction
NORTH
68
Summary
• NCEP spanning “Sun to the Sea”; many new programmatic
areas (oceans, air quality, space weather…)
• Many science-service opportunities/challenges exist
• NCEP is uniquely positioned to handle transition issues
from research to operations
• Actively engaged with the research community
– Test beds
– Experiments (NAME, THORPEX)
– Other programs (USWRP, CLIVAR, …)
• Still consider NCEP to be an
underutilized entity by the research
community
69
Appendix
70
NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process
EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations
Observation
System
Effort
Other Agencies
&
International
NOAA
Research
R&D
Service
Centers
EMC
NCO
OPS
Test Beds
JCSDA
CTB
WRF DTC
JHT
Field
Offices
EMC
Life cycle
Support
Operations
Service Centers
User
Delivery
Transition from Research to Operations
Launch List – Model Implementation Process
Concept of Operations
Requirements
Criteria
Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability
71
Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process
R&D
1
1.
Large “volume” of
R&D,
funded through AOs,
Agency Labs…
2
Smaller set of R&D
products suitable for
operations.
3.
Systematic transition
steps.
4.
New products can
serve
diverse and expanding
user community.
5.
Delivery to diverse
USER
community
2
NCEP
is uniquely
positioned
to provide an
operational
infrastructure
for the
transition
process
Transition from
N
C
E
P
3
research
to
operations/
applications
4
Operations
5
User Community
72
CDAS/Reanl vs GFS
NH/SH 500Hpa day 5
Anomaly Correlation (20-80 N/S)
NH GFS
SH GFS
NH CDAS/Reanl
SH CDAS/Reanl
90
85
Anomaly Correlation
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
YEAR
73
74
CFS Seasonal
Precip Forecast
(mm/month)
Without
skill mask
75
CFS Seasonal
Precip Forecast
(mm/month)
With
skill mask
•
If anomaly
correlation between
forecast and observed
conditions over the
1982-2003 period is
below 0.3, values are
not shown
76
CFS Seasonal
Temp Forecast
(deg K)
Without
skill mask
77
CFS Seasonal
Temp Forecast
(deg K)
With
skill mask
•
If anomaly
correlation between
forecast and observed
conditions over the
1982-2003 period is
below 0.3, values are
not shown
78
GSI/GFS Impact studies: Preliminary Results (CHAMP)
2-month cycling at T62L64
•
There are some encouraging
preliminary results. Before being able
to assimilate the RO data in
operations we need to:
–
–
•
•
Understand the differences between
the assimilation of N and BA. Why in
some cases the assimilation of N
results in a larger improvement than
the assimilation of BA and visa
versa?
Understand the strengths and
weaknesses of the GPS RO data and
the model in weather analyses and
forecasts. Why does the assimilation
of N or BA degrade the forecasts in
some cases?
The sensitivity of the impact of GPS
RO to model resolution, QC
parameters and error characterization
is under current study.
The results of these experiments will
accelerate the tuning for the
assimilation of COSMIC data.
Cucurull et al. 2006, submitted to MWR
Control
Refractivity
Bending Angle
79
Early Results: COSMIC
• The figures show the day-2
anomaly correlation scores for
temperature at 300mb for the NH,
Tropics and SH. Results for the
control (COSM_CTL) and bending
angle (COSM_BND) are indicated.
• Early results on the assimilation of
COSMIC bending angles at NCEP
show a good performance of the
DA system.
• The same experiments could have
assimilated observations of
refractivity instead of bending
angle.
• Results are encouraging and more
data needs to be assimilated for
further tuning and evaluation of the
impact of the GPS RO in weather
analyses and forecasts.
80
S. Hemisphere
500 hPa AC Z
1 Jan - 15 Feb '04
1
Anomaly Correlation
0.95
0.9
0.85
0.8
0.75
0.7
0.65
0.6
0
1
2
3
4
Forecast [day]
5
6
Control
7
Windsat
Figure 2. The 500HPa Geopotential Anomaly Correlations versus forecast period
for GFS forecasts using the operational data base without QuikSCAT data
(Control) and using the operational database without QuikSCAT data but with
WindSat data (WindSat) over the Southern Hemisphere.
81
Error (nautical miles)
NATIONAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE
HURRICANE CENTER
CENTER
ATLANTIC
ATLANTIC TRACK
TRACK FORECAST
FORECAST ERRORS
ERRORS
500
400
1964-1973
1974-1983
300
1984-1993
2003-2005
1994-2003
200
100
0
12
24
36
48
72
96
Forecast Period (hours)
120
82
23 May 2006