“The Meteorological Society …wishes to be
the central point, the moving power, of a
vast machine, and it feels that unless it can
be this, it must be powerless; if it cannot do
all it can do nothing.
It desires to have at its command, at stated
periods, perfect systems of methodical and
simultaneous observations; it wishes its
influence and its power to be omnipresent
over the globe so that it may be able to
know, at any given instant, the state of the
atmosphere on every point on its
surface…”
— John Ruskin, 1839
Climate Controversies
Science and the Politics of Knowledge
about Global Climate Change
Paul N. Edwards
School of Information and Dept. of History, University of Michigan
Weather forecasting

some history of technologies and techniques
Computers change everything
Climate models and climate data
Data friction
Climate controversies
Conclusion
1872 War Dept. weather map
Global coverage by surface stations
1870
1900
1930
1960
Synoptic map of the northern hemisphere, 5 may 1914
L.F. Richardson’s “forecast-factory” (1922)
Illustration by François Schuiten (1990s)
Weather forecasting
Computers change everything
simulating the atmosphere with numerical models
Climate models and climate data
Data friction
Climate controversies
Conclusion
Computer models of the atmosphere

1950s: weather
prediction


Simulate evolution of
initial state
(observations)
Forecast models
drove need for more
data


How to fill empty
gridpoints?
How to reconcile
heterogeneous data
sources?
World
Weather
Watch
• initial planning early 1960s
• operational about 1968
Weather forecasting
Computers change everything
Climate data and climate models


climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide
understanding global circulation
Data friction
Climate controversies
Conclusion
Callendar 1938: is CO2 causing global warming?
Global temperature from ~150 stations, 1890-1937
— G. S. Callendar 1938
Estimates of climate sensitivity from simple
mathematical models
Investigator(s)
Year
Climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling
Arrhenius
1896
5-6°C
Hulburt
1931
4°C
Callendar
1938
1.5°C
Callendar
1949
2.1°C
Plass
1956
3.8°C
Möller
1963
1.5-9.6°C
Conservation Foundation
1963
3.8°C
Manabe & Wetherald
1967
2.4°C
Manabe
1970
1.9°C
Rasool & Schneider
1971
0.8°C
Manabe & Wetherald
1975
2.9°C
Callendar 1938: is CO2 causing global warming?
Discussion at the Royal Meteorological Society



“Coincidence…. one of the peculiar variations in all
meteorological elements” — G. Simpson
Temperature increase explained by changes in general
circulation — C.E.P. Brooks
Change in heat absorption would produce complex
circulation effects, not simple temperature rise — D. Brunt
The global circulation
(Ferrel 1860)
The global circulation: a recent view
Computer models of climate

Simulations of the
climate system


Climate models work
like weather models,
but without data
inputs
Problem: where to
get data for validating
climate models?
1990
1996
Climate model
grid scales
in IPCC reports
2000
2007
Physical
processes
included in
climate models
Climate sensitivity from GCMs
Assessment
Range of GCM
results (°C)
Equilibrium climate
"Best guess" (°C)
sensitivity
NAS 1979
2-3.5
1.5-4.5
3
NAS 1983
2-3.5
1.5-4.5
3
Villach 1985
1.5-5.5
1.5-4.5
3
IPCC 1990
1.9-5.2
1.5-4.5
2.5
IPCC 1992
1.7-5.4
1.5-4.5
2.5
IPCC 1994
not given
1.5-4.5
2.5
Bolin 1995
not given
1.5-4.5
2.5
IPCC 1995
1.9-5.2
1.5-4.5
2.5
IPCC 2001
2.0-5.1
1.5-4.5
2.5
IPCC 2007
2.1-4.4
2-4.5
3
Weather forecasting
Computers change everything
Climate data and climate models
Data friction


making data global
infrastructural inversion as a method
Climate controversies
Conclusion
Data friction



Data are things
Collect, process, move, store,
manage, provide access…
Making data global


Quality control
Merging heterogeneous sources
Changes in
instrumentation
(Karl et al. 1993)
Changes in standard observing hours
(Karl et al. 1993)
Source: Palutikof and Goddess, 1986
Infrastructural inversion as a method


Exposing the
infrastructure to find and
fix data problems
A fundamental method in
climate science
IPCC 4th assessment report (2007)
Infrastructural inversion at work:
Making data global





Köppen 1881: fewer than 100 stations
Callendar 1938: about 200 stations
Willett 1950: 183 stations
Callendar 1961: 450 stations
Mitchell 1963: 183 stations
 Jones
et al. 1986: 2194 stations
 Brohan et al. 2006: 4349 stations
 Muller et al. (in preparation): 39,340 stations
(and climbing!)
IPCC AR4 (2007), Fig. 3.1
Weather forecasting
Computers change everything
Climate data and climate models
Data friction
Climate controversies



The Scientific Integrity Hearings
The hockey stick and climate “audits”
Surfacestations.org
Conclusion
The Scientific Integrity Hearings, 1995

104th Congress: the “Republican revolution”

Platform: “Science programs must seek and be guided by
empirically sound data”


In other words, not models
Skeptics: data from microwave sounding unit (MSU) refute
global warming

J. Christy to Congress (1995): “Hurrell and Trenberth estimate
the temperature of the atmosphere through a simple linear
regression model…, and a global climate model simulation …,
[but] the MSU data actually measure the temperature of the free
atmosphere.”
Satellites vs.
radiosondes,
circa 1999
Source: W. Soon et al., “Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide,” Climate Research 13, no. 2 (1999): 153.
Tilting the line
Source: Keller 2008, “Global Climate Change: A Review of this Mostly Settled Issue,”
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 23:5, 643-676
Tilting the line: surface vs. satellite 2009
Global temperature anomaly in surface data vs. lower-troposphere MSU data from UAH V5.2 and RSS V3.2. Source of
surface data: HadCRUT3 (P. Brohan et al., “Uncertainty Estimates in Regional and Global Observed Temperature
Changes: A New Dataset from 1850,” Journal of Geophysical Research 111, D12106). Source of RSS data: TLT V3.2 (C.
Mears and F. Wentz, “Construction of the Remote Sensing Systems V3.2 atmospheric temperature records from the
MSU and AMSU microwave sounders,” Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, in press). Source of UAH
data: TLT GLHMAM 5.2 (J. Christy, “Error Estimates of Version 5.0 of MSU/AMSU Bulk Atmospheric Temperatures,”
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 20 (2003), 613–29). All data updated through 2008. Graphic by
Robert A. Rohde.
The Hockey Stick Controversy (2000s)
Mann, Bradley & Hughes, Geophys. Res. Lett 26 (1999)
Climate Audit



Early 2000s: Stephen McIntyre requested Michael
Mann’s data
Mann provided some, but not all
McIntyre persisted


House Subcommittee on Oversight and
Investigation


Now requested source code as well as data
Required Mann to deliver his curriculum vitae, a list of
all his grants and other financial support, all the data
for all his published work, the source code used to
produce his results, and an “explanation” of all his work
for the IPCC
Others involved: NSF, NRC, AAAS, NAS…
NRC, 2006
More climate audits
GISTEMP land-only temperature anomaly trend
vs.
same trend recalculated using Clear Climate Code
source: skepticalscience.com
2 major land-only surface temperature anomaly datasets
vs.
5 independent analyses
source: skepticalscience.com
3 major land-ocean surface temperature anomaly datasets
vs.
2 independent analyses
source: skepticalscience.com
From A. Watts, “Is the U.S. Temperature
Record Reliable?”, Heartland Institute, 2009
MMTS = Maximum/Minimum Temperature System
(electronic thermistor)
“We were shocked by
what we found… 9 of
every 10 stations are
likely reporting higher
or rising temperatures
because they are badly
sited (p. 3)”
“Station quality ratings obtained from NOAA/NCDC via this source:
Climate Reference Network Rating Guide - adopted [sic] from NCDC Climate
Reference Network Handbook, 2002, specifications for siting (section 2.2.1)”
Auditing the audit: Menne et al. 2010
Menne et al. (2010),
Fig. 1
USHCN exposure classifications according to surfacestations.org (circles and triangles). Filled symbols are in
agreement with independent assessments by NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office personnel.
…Ratings 1 and 2 are treated as “good” exposure sites; ratings 3, 4 and 5 are considered “poor” exposure.
$%&#
Source: “V1.05 USHCN Master Station List”.
$%' #
$%( #
Figure 1. USHCN exposure classifications according to surfacestations.org (circles a
triangles).
Filled symbols are in agreement with independent assessments
$%%#
$%&#
$&' #
$&( #
$&! #
“Comparison of the [continental US] average annual (a) maximum and (b) minimum
#
temperatures calculated using USHCN version 2 adjusted temperatures [Menne et al.
2009] and USCRN departures from the 1971-2000 normal. Good and poor site ratings
Figure 7. Comparison of the CONUS average annual (a) maximum and (b) minimum
are based on surfacestations.org.”
temperatures calculated using USHCN version 2 adjusted temperatures [Menne et al. 2009]
and USCRN
departures
the of1971-2000
normal.
Good and
poorJ.site
ratings are based
Source:
Menne et
al., "On the from
reliability
the U.S. Surface
Temperature
Record,”
Geophys.
Research
(2010), Fig. 7 as in Fig. 1.
on surfacestations.org
Menne et al.: Conclusions
Widespread poor site exposure in USHCN is real, but…
The bias in unadjusted maximum temperature data from
poor exposure sites relative to good exposure sites is, on
average, negative...
Adjustments applied to USHCN Version 2 data largely
account for the impact of instrument and siting changes,
although a small overall residual negative (“cool”) bias appears
to remain…
We find no evidence that …US temperature trends are
inflated due to poor station siting.
Weather forecasting
Computers change everything
Climate models and climate data
Data friction
Climate controversies
Conclusion
Hypertransparency:
from peer review to web debate

Blogs, preprint sites, email lists


“Science audits”




Traditional journals’ power reduced
Circumvent traditional credentialing and reputation systems
Massively expanded group of “reviewers” with access to
powerful distribution techniques
“Experts” recast as “insiders,” “tribal,” “self-interested”
Irony: IPCC review process is most thorough, open, and
transparent in history
Hypertransparency: the future


Data and code likely to be directly reviewed (“audited”)
Legal tools (e.g. FOIA) will be used to secure access


If those strategies fail, deliberate leaks and hostile hacks will get
around legal barriers
The echo chamber
Outdated, disproven views circulate forever online
Have the effects of
global warming already begun?
Yes
1998
2008
2010
48%
61%
53%
Gallup poll of Americans
Have the effects of
global warming already begun?
1998
2008
2010
Yes (D)
Yes (R)
47%
76%
66%
46%
41%
31%
Gallup poll of Americans
Amazon.com reader reviews of Al Gore,
Our Choice: A Plan to Solve the Climate Crisis
*****
****
***
**
*
49%
4
2
4
41
Some lessons

Climate knowledge is real and well settled



Data are made, not born


Global data are always produced by a combination of
observation and modeling
Infrastructural inversion is a fundamental method


Strong, stable, very old infrastructure
Not “uncertain” in ordinary sense
Constantly surfaces data problems and generates new versions
of data
Despite convergence, data instability can always be used to
provoke doubt
! "#$%& %' ( ") *"#+, $-*. / *, +#0*
R. Muller: House testimony, April 2011
Figure: Land2 average
temperatures
the randomly
three major selected
programs, compared with an
percent
of stationfrom
data,
initial test of the Berkeley Earth dataset and analysis process. Approximately 2 percent
of the available sites were chosen randomly from the complete set of 39,028 sites. The
Berkeley data are marked as preliminary because they do not include treatments for the
“Climategate”
The Climatic Research Unit



Univ. of East Anglia, UK
2005: new UK freedom of information law
105 FOI requests to CRU


58 from McIntyre
A siege mentality
Not Releasing Data
From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
To: mann@virginia.edu
Subject: Fwd: CCNet: PRESSURE GROWING ON CONTROVERSIAL RESEARCHER TO DISCLOSE
SECRET DATA
Date: Mon Feb 21 16:28:32 2005
Cc: "raymond s. bradley" <rbradley@geo.umass.edu>, "Malcolm Hughes"
<mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu>
Mike, Ray and Malcolm,
The skeptics seem to be building up a head of steam here ! Maybe we can use
this to our advantage to get the series updated !...
…The IPCC comes in for a lot of stick.
Leave it to you to delete as appropriate !
Cheers
Phil
PS I'm getting hassled by a couple of people to release the CRU station temperature data.
Don't any of you three tell anybody that the UK has a Freedom of Information Act !
Not Releasing Data
From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
To: santer1@llnl.gov, Tom Wigley <wigley@ucar.edu>
Subject: Re: Schles suggestion
Date: Wed Dec 3 13:57:09 2008
Ben,
When the FOI requests began here, the FOI person said we had to abide by the
requests. It took a couple of half hour sessions - one at a screen, to convince them
otherwise showing them what CA [Climate Audit] was all about. Once they
became aware of the types of people we were dealing with, everyone at UEA (in
the registry and in the Environmental Sciences school - the head of school and a
few others) became very supportive. I've got to know the FOI person quite well
and the Chief Librarian - who deals with appeals. The VC is also aware of what is
going on - at least for one of the requests, but probably doesn't know the number
we're dealing with. We are in double figures.
Criminal behavior?

Senator James Inhofe, ranking Republican on the
Environment and Public Works Committee, calls for an
investigation of 17 “key players”
“The released CRU emails and documents display unethical, and
possibly illegal, behavior. The scientists appear to discuss
manipulating data to get their preferred results…”
United States Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, Minority
Staff report, “’Consensus’ Exposed: The CRU Controversy,” Feb. 2010
HadCRUT
ECMWF
Increase in mean near-surface temperature (°C) from (1989-98) to (1999-2008)
ECMWF uses uses all available surface temperature measurements, plus
satellites, radiosondes, ships and buoys. Source: UK Met Office, Dec. 2009
A 17-member
Ensemble
Forecast
A 17-member
Ensemble
Forecast:
convergence