Fall wk 6 – Mon.1.Nov.04 • Welcome, roll, questions, announcements • Energy Ch.4: Demand • Discuss midterms Energy Systems, EJZ Review of week 5 Conferences Research workshop Library workshop Writing workshop Research proposals Physics Ch.7+8 HW: Energy and Work Plan for week 6 Monday: Energy Ch.4, Demand Seminar: Power to the People Tuesday: Calculus Ch.2: Differentiation Thursday: Debate on Local vs Central Infrastructure Seminar: Hype about Hydrogen Friday: Energy essays Questions about Energy demand: What will happen to the economy if we use less fossil fuel? Can we cut consumption without sacrificing quality of life? Conservation, efficiency, or resource substitution? If we cut consumption, how and by how much? Do we really need what we consume? How does energy demand and efficiency depend on price and other variables? What does demand depend on? Q=demand (a) Q=demand (b) P=price Q=demand (c) F=fashion time (a) Classical market model: demand falls if price increases (b) Variables: Demand may increase with fashion (c) Consider both, and assume fashionability and price both increase in time Elasticity: how does demand Q depend on price P? Q Q (a) Q=demand (b) P (c) P (a) Demand depends strongly and variably on price (b) Linear elasticity (c) Inelastic: demand independent of price P Elasticity = slope of normalized Q(P) curve Can we reduce energy use yet increase (or maintain) GDP (or quality of life)? Energy use (a) conservation (b) income Quality of life Fig.4.4: It looks like we need increased energy use for a better quality of life: DISCUSS Energy use and GDP increase in lockstep? Hypotheses: price drop increased energy use increased production, but increased energy use not required for increased GDP * Efficiency e GDP/Energy demand Energy demand (a) If energy demand is inelastic, we’re in trouble (a) P E/GDP 1/ e (b) Efficiency is too expensive in short term, but cost-effective in longer term * How does energy really demand depend on price? * How does efficiency really depend on price? (b) P * Time lag between price change and demand adjustment (Hogan) Test the hypotheses – plot the data Q/GDP Team A: Plot Energy consumption Q per $ GDP vs time (Table 4.1) (A) t Real Price Team B: Plot real price vs time (Table 4.3) (B) t Q/GDP Team C: Plot Q/GDP vs price (Tables 4.1 and 4.3) (C) P Conservation potential in the US Large-scale power plants are more efficient Unless you consider transportation costs Then small-scale distributed power more efficient Efficiency (GDP/Q) versus conservation (MEOW) Substituting resources: cheaper fuels, renewables Homes: heating, insulation, lighting Industry: coal to steam; shift to service industry Transportation ~ 30% of total demand (half for cars) Questions about Energy future: Will we have another fuel crisis? Then what? Easier to change markets than consumer taste? Role of incentives and penalties? Interventionist conservation policy? Tax credits for efficient buildings, end oil subsidies, … Which is preferable, free choices and market, or greater govt. control? What choices do developing nations have?