The Modular Modeling System
(MMS): A Toolbox for Waterand Environmental-Resources
Modeling and Management
G.H. Leavesley, S.L. Markstrom,
R.J. Viger, and L.E. Hay
U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO USA
STARTING POINTS
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There are no universal models
Models for different purposes require different
levels of detail and comprehensiveness
Appropriate model process conceptualizations
are a function of problem objectives, data
constraints, and spatial and temporal scales of
application
Modeling Conundrum
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Experimental science builds on hypothesis
testing and interpretation based on earlier
published hypotheses and results
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Modelers tend to build from the ground up
because existing models are not well designed
for incremental improvement by others
TOOL BOX MODELING
VIEWS
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Research Model Developer
Complex Detail
Application Model Developer
Model User
Resource Manager
Policy Maker
Condensed Analysis
LEVELS OF MODULAR
DESIGN
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Single Purpose
PROCESS
MODEL
FULLY COUPLED MODELS
LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS Multi-objective,
Complex
ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT
TOOLS
LEVELS OF MODULAR
DESIGN
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PROCESS
MODEL
FULLY COUPLED MODELS
LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION
SUPPORT SYSTEMS
ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS
CRITERIA AND RULES FOR
GOOD MODULE DESIGN
Modules should
 relate directly to real world components or
processes
 have input and output variables that are
measurable values
 communicate solely via these input and
output variables
Reynolds J.F., and Acock, B., 1997, Modularity and genericness
in plant and ecosystem models: Ecological Modeling 94, p 7-16
Model Building Tool - XMBUILD
SELECTED MODELS AND
MODULES IN MMS
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USGS
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PRMS
GSFLOW
WEBMOD
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OTHER
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TOPMODEL
Hydro-17 (NWS
snowmelt)
Sacramento Model
(NWS)
Snowmelt Runoff
Model (SRM) (ARS)
ENNS Model
(modified HBV,
Austria)
LEVELS OF MODULAR
DESIGN
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PROCESS
MODEL
FULLY COUPLED MODELS
LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION
SUPPORT SYSTEMS
ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS
Ground Water - Surface Water Coupling
DAFLOW
PRMS
MODFLOW
GSFLOW -- Coupled PRMS,
MODFLOW, SFR, and
Unsaturated Zone Models
PRMS to SFR
Unsaturated Zone Model:
PRMS to
MODFLOW
PRMS to UNSAT
UNSAT to MODFLOW
MODFLOW to
SFR
Streamflow
LEVELS OF MODULAR
DESIGN
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PROCESS
MODEL
FULLY COUPLED MODELS
LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION
SUPPORT SYSTEMS
ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS
LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS
MMS Model
Watershed
Model
Hydraulics
Model
Fish Model
Off-the-shelf
Model
Database
Data Management
Interface (DMI)
LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS
Watershed
Model
Hydraulics
Model
Fish Model
HSI
Velocity HSI - Brown Trout
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Adult
Juvenile
Fingerling
Spawning
0
1
2
velocity m/s
3
4
LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS
Watershed
Model
Hydraulics
Model
Fish Model
PRMS
Channel Geometry
Analysis Program (CGAP)
Habitat Suitability
Index
Coupled Model Results
LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS
MMS Model
Watershed
Model
Hydraulics
Model
Fish Model
Off-the-shelf
Model
Database
Data Management
Interface (DMI)
Model Management
Interface (MMI) [XML]
OBJECT USER INTEFACE (OUI)
LEVELS OF MODULAR
DESIGN
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PROCESS
MODEL
FULLY COUPLED MODELS
LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS
Recreation
Watershed and
River Systems
Management
Program
Municipal & Industrial
Irrigation
Hydropower
Research and development of decision support
systems and their application to achieve an
equitable balance among water resource issues.
Riparian Habitat
Endangered Species
RiverWare – Lower Colorado River
Upper Gunnison River DSS
Hydromet
Real-time climate
data feed
DMI
Hydrologic
Database
DMI
DMI
RiverWare
Reservoir and River System
Operations Model
DMI
Object User Interface
Interface for data visualization
and modeling
Modular Modeling System
Precipitation/Runoff Model (PRMS)
Generic DSS Framework for a Wide
Range of Management Issues
Climate Data
Source
DMI
Any
Database
DMI
Any Resource
Management
Model
DMI
MMI
Object User Interface
Interface for data visualization
and modeling
Modular Modeling System
Physical Process Models
Currently Active
Gunnison, Truckee,
Upper Rio Grande,
Yakima
Under
Development
San Juan, Umatilla,
Upper Columbia
WARSMP
Basins
Future
Bitterroot, Carson,
Central Platte,
Lower Rio Grande,
Salmon
LEVELS OF MODULAR
DESIGN
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PROCESS
MODEL
FULLY COUPLED MODELS
LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION
SUPPORT SYSTEMS
ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS
GIS WEASEL
Delineation:
•Only requires elevation Grid
as input
•Interactively delineate
•Area of Interest
•Many kinds of features
•Streams
•Elevation bands
•Landuse
•Contributing areas
•Topographic index
•……
DIGITAL DATABASES
Vegetation Type (USFS)
Vegetation Density (USFS)
Land Use-Land Cover (USGS)
STATSGO Soils (USDA)
Satellite SW Radiation (U Md)
Monthly PET
AUTOMATED PARAMETER
ESTIMATION USING THE GIS WEASEL
GIS WEASEL
Parameterization:
•200+ methods available
•Configure recipes
•Easily add custom methods •Apply to feature maps
•Exploit many types of data
•Produce maps and ASCII
files of parameters
MODEL RECIPE FILE
PARAMETER
ESTIMATION
METHOD
PARAMETER
Multi-step Calibration
Multi-step calibration visualization
ANALYSIS and SUPPORT
TOOLS
Currently Available
Statistical and Graphical Analyses
Parameter Optimization
Parameter Sensitivity Analysis
Beta Testing
Shuffle Complex Evolution Optimization
Multi-Objective COMplex Evolution Algorithm (MOCOM)
Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE)
Visualization
Forecast Methodologies
- Historic data as analog for the future
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)
-Synthetic time-series
Weather Generator
- Atmospheric model output
Dynamical Downscaling
Statistical Downscaling
MMS Development is
Accomplished Through
Collaborative Multi-disciplinary
Efforts
Sleepers River, Vermont
USGS
Trout Lake, Wisconsin
Panola Mountain, Georgia
Loch Vale, Colorado
WATER, ENERGY, AND
BIOGEOCHEMICAL
BUDGETS (WEBB)
PROGRAM
Luquillo, Puerto Rico
WEBMOD
PRMS
National Weather
Service - Hydro17
TOPMODEL
Use Chemical and Isotopic
Tracers to Evaluate
Next step: Use tracers to constrain the
Simulatedhydrologic
Flowsolutions
Paths and
Residence Times
Coupled WEBMOD and
PHREEQC
Effects of Vegetation and Vegetation
Change on Water and Energy
Partitioning
Natural
Managed
Fool Creek Watershed, Fraser
Experimental Forest, Colorado
(714 acres)
Satellite image of the Rodeo and
Chediski fires before they merged
into one fire, eventually burning
some 470,000 acres
Issues: Process, Scale, Parameter Estimation
Vegetation Management Model
US Forest Service, Missoula, Mt
•Simulates vegetation
patterns and
processes
emphasizing the
dynamics of
landscape level
change.
•Produces
ensemble output
Integrating Science with Resource Management
through Collaborative Approaches and
Adaptive Modeling Systems
Land Use
Climate
CO2
Science Synthesis
Human population
Invasive species
Modeling Framework
Development
Resource Management
•Flood & drought impacts
•Vegetation change
•Wildland fire
BLM
USFS
SIMPPLLE
•Grazing impacts
•Landslides
•Water quality
NPS
CESU
NMD
+
BRD
•Public land
management
Physical
models
GD
•Resource
availability
WRD
•Restoration plans
•…
Initial DSS
Development Area
USGS, NPS, USFS, BLM,
BIA, CO State University,
N AZ University
Integrating Water-Resource and
Socio-Economic Models
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Population and Demand Forecasts
Water Markets
 (change in ownership in perpetuity)
Water Banking
 (lease options over some period of time)
Issue: The better the prediction of the spatial and temporal
distribution of water, the better the markets can perform.
This requires the full integration of physical-process and socioeconomic models to optimize economic and institutional analyses.
Adding Water Banking to a
Water Resources DecisionSupport System
Hydromet
Real-time climate
data feed
DMI
Hydrologic
Database
DMI
RiverWare
DMI
Reservoir and River System
Operations Model
DMIs
DMI
Object User Interface
Interface for data visualization
and modeling
Modular Modeling System
Precipitation/Runoff Model (PRMS)
Water
Banking
MMS UNIVERSITY
COLLABORATION
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University of Arizona
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University of Colorado
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NOAA funded -- Coupling of hydrologic and
atmospheric models to provide short- to long-term
forecasts
University of Nevada Reno
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NSF funded -- Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and
Riparian Areas (SAHRA)
Desert Research Institute funded – Watershed modeling
and coupled SW/GW modeling
Colorado State University
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Interagency MOU funded – GeoLEM and Parameter
estimation, optimization, and sensitivity analysis tools
Working with
the NRCS to
incorporate
the USGS
Modular
Modeling
System into
the NRCS
forecasting
toolbox
Integrated Framework Development
Collaborative effort to integrate the Object
Modeling System (OMS) and the Modular
Modeling System (MMS)
- ARS
- USGS
- NRCS
Netbeans IDE, Sun Forte,…
OMS Platform
Database
PRMS
RZWQM
ModelBuilder
Branding
ModelCore
Other…
C++
Testing
XML
Java Compiler
-Friedrich Schiller University, Germany
Other Model Integration Approaches
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U.S.
BASINS (EPA)
 FRAMES (DOE, NRC, DOD, EPA)
 DIAS (DOE)
 XMS (WMS, GMS, SMS, … - EMS Inc.)
 OMS (USDA)
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International
HarmonIT (Europe)
 Catchment Modeling Toolkit (Australia)
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MMS SUMMARY
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Integrated toolbox approach to model development and
application for water- and environmental-resources
management
Easily configured and/or enhanced for user-specific needs
Supports multi-disciplinary model integration for decision
support systems
Flexible framework approach enables the incorporation of
continuing advances in science, databases, and computer
technology as well as changes in management objectives
Open source software design allows many to share
resources, expertise, knowledge, and costs
POINT
“A fool
with a tool
is still a fool.”
Chicken Soup for the Modeling Soul
System Development magazine
MORE INFORMATION
 http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/mms
 http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/weasel
 http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/warsmp
 http://oms.ars.usda.gov
 http://www.iscmem.org