Heading into the election, Republicans faced a very difficult
political environment with all the key national barometers in
the dumps.
National
Presidential Job Approval
Generic Ballot
Republican Party Image
Data From National Exit Polls
2008 Post-Election Presentation
3
It was a difficult Fall for the McCain campaign. Obama’s
image improved, McCain’s stayed flat, and Palin’s fell.
Barack Obama: Image
52%
48%
36%
35%
John McCain: Image
Sarah Palin: Image
56%
47%
46%
44%
44%
43%
42%
39%
39%
38%
37% 38%
36%
33%
Pos Neg Pos Neg Pos Neg
Pos Neg Pos Neg Pos Neg
Pos Neg Pos Neg Pos Neg
Sept. 22
2008
Sept. 22
2008
Sept. 22
2008
Oct. 05
2008
Oct. 20
2008
Oct. 05
2008
Oct. 20
2008
Oct. 05
2008
Oct. 20
2008
Data from a NBC/WSJ national poll of 1,159 Registered Voters conducted October 17-20, 2008
2008 Post-Election Presentation
4
And all data pointed to an Obama win.
If the election for President and Vice President were held today, for whom would you vote if
the candidates were:
John McCain and Sarah Palin, Republicans ...and... Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Democrats
54%
52%
46%
JM
43%
BO
Rasmussen
JM
50%
43%
BO
Reuters
JM
44%
43%
BO
FOX
55%
51%
JM
BO
NBC/WSJ
JM
44%
42%
BO
Gallup
53%
51%
JM
BO
CBS
JM
BO
ABC/WP
All data is from the week leading up to the 2008 election
2008 Post-Election Presentation
5
Early voting spiked and provided Obama with a
comfortable margin.
Percent Voting Early
2000
2004
56%
54%
45%
50% 49%
49% 50%
43%
2000
2002
2004
2008
2008 Post-Election Presentation
Voted
Early
Obama
Bush
McCain
Kerry
Bush
Obama
Kerry
Election
Day
McCain
Voted
Early
Kerry
18%
Bush
Bush
Gore
18%
Bush
Gore
Kerry
24%
Bush
33%
Election
Day
7
Leaving few late deciders for a McCain comeback.
Now, some people decide early in a campaign how they will vote. Others make their decisions just
before the election. When would you say you made your FINAL decision on which candidate you
were going to vote for in the election for President?
67%
59%
52%
51%
36%
28%
17%
17%
6%
1992
1996
2000
Election day/Last few days before the election
2008 Post-Election Presentation
2004
9%
2008
Before September
8
While younger voters and first time voters remained
consistent with previous elections…
17%
17%
18%
9%
18-29
yrs old
11%
11%
First
Time
Voters
2000
2008 Post-Election Presentation
2004
2008
9
…the racial make-up of the electorate is changing.
% Of African American & Hispanic Voters
12%
13%
13%
AA/Hisp.
AA/Hisp.
AA/Hisp.
1980
1984
1988
22%
15%
17%
19%
AA/Hisp.
AA/Hisp.
AA/Hisp.
AA/Hisp.
AA/Hisp.
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
10%
Data from CNN Exit Polls
2008 Post-Election Presentation
10
Obama’s advantages with these four groups were essential to
his big victory.
95%
69%
67%
66%
32%
31%
30%
4%
18-29
yrs old
AfricanAmericans
McCain
Hispanics
First
Time
Voters
Obama
* National Exit Poll Data
2008 Post-Election Presentation
11
African Americans turned out in record numbers, making
Obama their nearly unanimous choice.
Presidential Vote Among African Americans
-81%
-77%
90%
9%
Bush
Gore
African Americans
(10%)
2000
-91%
95%
88%
11%
4%
Bush
Kerry
African Americans
(11%)
2004
McCain
Obama
African Americans
(13%)
2008
Data from CNN Exit Polls
2008 Post-Election Presentation
12
Obama’s increased margins among AA’s helped flip
Southeastern states.
Presidential Vote Among African Americans
Virginia
G.W.
Afr. Am.
(21%)
2004
96%
86%
85%
8%
J.K.
Florida
95%
92%
87%
12%
North Carolina
J.M. B.O.
Afr. Am.
(20%)
2008
14%
13%
5%
G.W.
J.K.
Afr. Am.
(26%)
2004
J.M. B.O.
Afr. Am.
(23%)
2008
G.W.
J.K.
Afr. Am.
(12%)
2004
4%
J.M. B.O.
Afr. Am.
(13%)
2008
Data from CNN Exit Polls
2008 Post-Election Presentation
13
Two-thirds of Hispanics supported Obama.
Presidential Vote Among Hispanics
-27%
-9%
-34%
66%
62%
53%
44%
35%
Bush
Gore
Hispanics
(7%)
2000
32%
Bush
Kerry
Hispanics
(6%)
2004
McCain
Obama
Hispanics
(8%)
2008
Data from CNN Exit Polls
2008 Post-Election Presentation
14
His margins made a huge difference in the Southwest.
Presidential Vote Among Hispanics
Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada
76%
69%
68%
60%
38%
60%
56%
44%
39%
30%
30%
22%
G.W.
J.K.
Hispanic
(8%)
2004
J.M. B.O.
Hispanic
(19%)
2008
G.W.
J.K.
Hispanic
(32%)
2004
J.M. B.O.
Hispanic
(41%)
2008
G.W.
J.K.
Hispanic
(10%)
2004
J.M. B.O.
Hispanic
(15%)
2008
Data from CNN Exit Polls
2008 Post-Election Presentation
15
As did two-thirds of young voters.
Presidential Vote Among 18-29 Year Olds
-2%
-9%
-34%
66%
46%
48%
54%
45%
32%
Bush
Gore
18-29 Years
(17%)
2000
Bush
Kerry
18-29 Years
(17%)
2004
McCain
Obama
18-29 Years
(18%)
2008
Data from CNN Exit Polls
2008 Post-Election Presentation
16
The Southeast – Obama significantly increased his margins
among young voters.
Presidential Vote Among 18-29 Year Olds
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
74%
60%
54%
46%
39%
61%
58%
56%
43%
41%
37%
26%
G.W.
J.K.
18-29 Yrs
(17%)
2004
J.M. B.O.
18-29 Yrs
(21%)
2008
G.W.
J.K.
18-29 Yrs
(14%)
2004
J.M.
B.O.
18-29 Yrs
(18%)
2008
G.W.
J.K.
18-29 Yrs
(17%)
2004
J.M. B.O.
18-29 Yrs
(15%)
2008
Data from CNN Exit Polls
2008 Post-Election Presentation
17
And, Obama overwhelmingly won with first-time voters.
Presidential Vote Among First-Time Voters
-9%
-7%
-37%
68%
52%
43%
53%
46%
31%
Bush
Gore
First-Time Voters
(9%)
2000
Bush
Kerry
First-Time Voters
(11%)
2004
McCain
Obama
First-Time Voters
(11%)
2008
Data from CNN Exit Polls
2008 Post-Election Presentation
18
GOP erosion complicated the electoral math.
Party Identification Figures
POS’ National Merge Data
43%
DEM
GOP
41%
41%
40%
38%
2004
2005
38%
2006
NBC/WSJ National Data
43%
43%
44%
37%
37%
2007
2008
47%
45%
43%
40%
DEM
GOP
38%
March
2004
36%
34%
Late October
2006
2008 Post-Election Presentation
March
2007
35%
March
2008
35%
November
2008
19
The Democratic advantage at the polls was unprecedented in
recent years.
Party ID
-2%
-3%
-5%
35% 37%
35% 38%
35%
GOP DEM
GOP DEM
GOP DEM
GOP DEM
GOP DEM
GOP DEM
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
40%
-4%
35%
39%
-0-
37% 37%
-7%
39%
32%
Data from CNN Exit Polls
2008 Post-Election Presentation
20
There were big swings in the battleground states.
State
2004
Result
2008
Result
2004
Party ID
(GOP-Dem)
2008
Party ID
(GOP-Dem)
CO
Bush
Obama
11
1
FL
Bush
Obama
4
-3
IN
Bush
Obama
14
5
IA
Kerry
Obama
2
-1
MI
Kerry
Obama
-5
-12
MN
Kerry
Obama
-3
-4
MO
Bush
McCain
1
-6
MT
Bush
McCain
7
0
NV
Bush
Obama
4
-8
NH
Kerry
Obama
7
-2
NM
Bush
Obama
-7
-16
NC
Bush
Obama
1
-11
OH
Bush
Obama
5
-8
PA
Kerry
Obama
-2
-7
VA
Bush
Obama
4
-6
WV
Bush
McCain
-18
-14
WI
Kerry
Obama
3
-6
2008 Post-Election Presentation
21
Red states turned blue.
2008
2004 Pres. Results
2008 Post-Election Presentation
22
Both sides consolidated their partisans.
2004 Presidential Race
93%
2008 Presidential Race
89%
6%
GOP
90%
11%
89%
9%
Dem
Bush/McCain
GOP
10%
Dem
Kerry/Obama
* National Exit Poll Data
2008 Post-Election Presentation
23
Obama won the middle by a very wide margin.
Among Moderates
Among Independents
48%
49%
Ind
54%
52%
45%
44%
Ind
Bush/McCain
60%
Mod
39%
Mod
Kerry/Obama
* National Exit Poll Data
2008 Post-Election Presentation
24
A new “progressive” era? Not exactly… this is still a
center-right country.
2008 Post-Election Presentation
26
Let’s remember what’s this race was really about.
2008 Post-Election Presentation
27
Looking to 2010…pay attention to Obama’s
approval rating.
President's Party Performance
74%
Presidential Job Approval vs. Midterm Results Since 1962
(Gallup/POS Polls & National Journal)
Job Approval
60+
50-59
Under 50
66%
63%
52%
49%
47%
46%
43%
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
-4
42%
1986
-8
-12
1990
1994
5
1998
-8
5
2006
2002
-15
-26
-47
63%
58%
57%
1962
Avg. Loss
0
-12
-41
-48
2008 Post-Election Presentation
-30
-52
28
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