GOP Coalition 1968-2004
• Key Policies
• Key Groups
–
–
–
–
Sunbelt
Evangelicals
Affluent suburbanites
White working class
– Military spending
– “Traditional family
values”
– Opposition to counter
culture
– End support for racial
equality
Silent Majority Speech
I know it may not be fashionable to speak of
patriotism or national destiny these days. But I
feel it is appropriate to do so on this occasion
…And so tonight -- to you, the great silent
majority of my fellow Americans -- I ask for
your support Nov. 3, 1969
1948 Electoral College Map
1988 Electoral College Map
1984 Mondale-Hart
1992 Clinton v. Tsongas
Old vs. New Democrats
2008
Hilary v.
Obama
2000 Gore v. Bradley
New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa,
Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon. 5% or less margin 2004
2008 Election
• The Declining White Working Class: Still Central
• Election Outcomes in Purple States
• White College Graduates: Growing and Trending
Democratic, Especially in Purple States
• New Minority Voters: Particularly Important in Fast
Growing Purple States
• It’s the Metros, Stupid
• Growing Areas are Mostly Trending Democratic
– Source: Ruy Teixeira and William Frey, The Political Geography
of America's Purple States: Five Trends That Will Decide the
2008 Election, Brookings Institution Oct 10.
“Real Plumbers of Ohio”
• Declining Income
– average annual income of “plumbers, pipefitters and
steamfitters” $47,930. (BLS 2007)
– Income increased 15.5% 2000-07, but consumer
prices increased 17.7%
• Health Care
– 2000 57% of firms with less than 10 employees
– 2000 45% of firms (Kaiser Family Foundation )
• Paul Krugman, Real Plumbers of Ohio, Oct 20, 2008
Matt Dowd on Hispanic Vote
• "We can't survive as a party
without getting more of the
Hispanic vote.”
• “Both political parties
understand that it's a
demographic that is probably
one of the most important –
you know, who's going to have
majority status in this country."
• As a realistic goal, we have to
get somewhere between 13
and 15 percent of the black
vote and 38 to 40 percent of
the Hispanic vote
GOP- anti immigrant rhetoric
• GOP Controlled House passes
Sensenbrenner Bill- “felonization of all
undocumented immigrants”
• NRSC Ad links illegal immigrants to
terrorists -http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjVdALIgfBI
Biggest Protests in a Generation
Bye-bye GOP
% Hispanic Vote, exit polls
Oportunidad
BO: I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message.
• Voiceover:
The cost of a college education is a real worry for many
families.
But under the Obama Plan a student can earn the first
$4,000 of tuition through community service.
Putting a college education within everyone's reach.
And the Obama Plan offers scholarships to recruit more
teachers to make sure our children are ready
(smart/prepared).
Ataques (Radio Version)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
ANNOUNCER 1: Wow, have you heard the terrible lies that John McCain and the Republicans
are saying about Barack Obama? How horrible.
[ANNOUNCER 2:] Well, it doesn't surprise me. The republicans will say anything to distract
the public from the economy.
[ANNOUNCER 1:] My neighbor - who has 2 kids - lost her job and her health insurance last
week. And her husband, who works in construction, is about to lose his. I don't want to hear
any more attacks. I want to know what the candidates will do for us.
[ANNOUNCER 2:]
Well, that's why Barack Obama is my candidate. Instead of continuing George Bush's same
failed policies - like John McCain wants to do - Barack Obama understands what our
community needs from a President. He has specific ideas to help us.
[ANNOUNCER 1:]
Under Obama, the middle class will receive three times more relief than with McCain. Obama
will cut our taxes!
[ANNOUNCER 2:]
And what matters to me is that Obama has a plan to give health insurance to all. My neighbor
will be saved!
[ANNOUNCER 1:]
Barack Obama and the democrats are the change we need
.
Why Not an EDM?
• Swing Member of Coalition
– College educated voters
– White working class
• Very Safe
– Latinos/African Americans
– Women