LeRoy Collins Institute
Population and Employment
Trends in Florida
University Center Club, Pensacola Room
Florida State University
May 6th, 2009
LeRoy Collins Institute ~ Carol Weissert, Ph. D., Director
FSU Campus ~ 506 W Pensacola Street Tallahassee FL 32306-1601
850-644-1441 ~ 850-644-1442 fax
Population and Employment
Trends in Florida
Elisabeth Mercer and Darryl Crawford,
FSU Demography Masters Program
Directed by Melanie Simmons PhD
FSU Center for Demography and Population
Health
Significant Variation within the
Counties in Florida
•
•
•
•
•
Fast and slow growing counties
Diverse ethnically and racially
Diverse age structure
Employment shifts
Earnings and Poverty
Agenda
Elisabeth
• Population trends
– Components of
change, migration
• Race and Ethnicity
– Blacks and Hispanics
• Age structure
– Young, old, and
working age
Darryl
• Employment
– Growth and change
– Public and private
employment
• Wages
– Income associated
with Jobs
• Household Income
and Poverty
Population Trends
Range of % Change for Regions, 1980-2007
• Growing at faster rates
than US
• Fastest Growth Rate
Regions:
– East Central Florida
– Southwest Florida
– Withlacoochee
• Slowest Growth Rate
Regions:
– South Florida
– Tampa Bay
– Apalachee
Maximum Minimum
1980-1990
34.53%
30.76%
1990-2000
24.32%
22.46%
2000-2007
15.01%
13.08%
% Change by County, 1980-2007
County
Gadsden
Monroe
Taylor
Jackson
Pinellas
St.Johns
Collier
Hernando
Osceola
Flagler
% Change 2007 Pop
13.55%
47,197
15.88%
73,223
19.59%
19,771
25.88%
49,287
25.93%
917,437
241.98%
267.38%
280.20%
419.03%
710.02%
175,446
315,839
169,070
255,815
88,397
Census, 2009
Population Forecasts
• Growth rates expected
to continually decline
• Fastest expected growth
rates:
– Withlacoochee
– Southwest Florida
– Northeast Florida
• Slowest expected growth
rates:
– South Florida
– Apalachee
– Tampa Bay
Projected Counties to Decline, 2010-2035
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
De Soto M onroe
65,100
74,600
36,600
73,500
38,400
72,300
40,100
71,200
41,800
70,200
43,300
69,200
Flagle r
Sumte r
96,300
98,200
115,600 117,600
137,500 139,400
158,700 161,200
178,900 182,400
198,000 203,200
•Very diverse county
level forecasts
–Two counties expected to
decline
–Two counties expected to
double
BEBR, 2009
Net Migration
• Fluctuations through time do not affect overall
Florida population
• Most regions experienced a decline in net
migration from 2000-2007
– Withlahoochee has experienced declining growth rates
since 1980
• Counties, such as Taylor and Gadsden, have
experienced extreme growth in net migration from
2000-2007
EDR, 2009
Florida In-Migration, 1973-2000
600,000
500,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
Year
Florida Population Growth Rates 1973-2000
7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
Population
Population
400,000
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
1973
1978
1983
1988
Year
1993
1998
2008
Race and Ethnicity Changes
• Blacks increasing at
faster rates than Whites
at the state level
• Regions are diverse in
their growth rates by
race
• Hispanics are increasing
at extraordinary rates
– 29 counties over doubled
their Hispanic populations
from 1980-1990
– 47 counties over doubled
their Hispanic populations
from 1990-2000
Growth Rates by Race
Blacks > Whites Whites > Blacks
West Florida
North Central FL
Apalachee
Withlacoochee
Northeast Florida Central Florida
East Central FL Southwest FL
Tampa Bay
Treasure Coast
South Florida
Region/State
East Central FL
Withlacoochee
Southwest FL
Treasure Coast
Central Florida
Apalachee
Northeast FL
Tampa Bay
Florida
North Central FL
West Florida
South Florida
% Change
756.28%
586.76%
492.86%
414.03%
398.17%
269.65%
248.05%
222.69%
212.61%
203.34%
156.74%
150.76%
Census, 2009
Age Structure
Population by Age, United States, 2007
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
65+
18-64
Under 18
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
United States
Florida
Population by Age, as a Proportion of Total Population, 1973-2014
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
0-18
19-64
65+
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
BEBR, 2009
School Aged Children
Proportion of Florida's Population <18, 1980-2007
24.50%
24.00%
Proportion
• Declining at the state
level and the regional
level, except South
Florida
• Declining at the county
level, except for
Broward, Charlotte,
Osceola, and Pasco
counties are increasing
in their proportion of <18
23.50%
23.00%
22.50%
22.00%
1980
1990
2000
Year
Census, 2009
School Enrollment
Proportion of School Enrollment by Education Level for Florida, 2000
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
College
High School
Grades 1-8
Kindergarten
Pre-Kindergarten
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
County
Gadsden
Jefferson
Jackson
Taylor
Gulf
Hernando
Charlotte
Collier
Flagler
Osceola
% Change
1.41%
2.21%
5.06%
6.51%
10.86%
170.14%
173.29%
180.07%
292.38%
310.41%
0%
Florida
Census, 2009
Elderly, 65+
– Tampa Bay, South Florida,
Treasure Coast declining
rates
– Rising rates for others
– Bowing effect
Proportion of Florida's Population 65+, 1980-2007
18.40%
18.20%
18.00%
17.80%
Proportion
• Decreasing proportions
of the population at the
state level
• Variation in growth rate
trends at the regional
level
17.60%
17.40%
17.20%
17.00%
16.80%
1980
1990
2000
Year
• 47 of the 67 counties
have increasing rates of
growth
Census, 2009
Elderly Population, as a Proportion of Total Population,
1980-2007
30.00%
Proportion of Population
25.00%
20.00%
Withlacoochee
Central Florida
Southwest Florida
Treasure Coast
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
Census, 2009
Working Age, 18-64
• Increasing proportions of
the population at the
state and regional level
• Six counties experienced
decline in the working
age group
61.00%
60.50%
60.00%
Proportion
– Apalachee had the largest
proportion of population in
the 18-64 age group
– Southwest Florida had the
smallest proportion of
population in the 18-64
age group
Proportion of Florida's Population 18-64, 1980-2007
59.50%
59.00%
58.50%
58.00%
1980
1990
2000
Year
1980
1990
2000
2007
Brevard
62.38%
61.44%
58.13%
59.69%
Collier
57.82%
57.32%
55.66%
54.14%
Flagler Highlands IndianRiver Okaloosa
58.88%
51.64%
56.73%
64.04%
55.32%
47.81%
53.35%
64.78%
53.46%
47.83%
51.60%
63.17%
57.21%
49.85%
55.58%
63.01%
Census, 2009