New York Workers Compensation Reforms and Their Impact on Loss Development Ziv Kimmel Vice President and Chief Actuary New York Compensation Insurance Rating Board CAGNY 2015 SPRING MEETING Overview • Major New York Workers Compensation (WC) Reforms • Pricing of Reform Elements • Adjusting Loss Development to Reflect Reforms Major Components of the 2007 Reforms • Elimination of Special Disability Fund • Increase in Maximum Weekly Benefit • Caps on Permanent Partial Disability Duration (PPD) • PPD Claims Into Aggregate Trust Fund • Medical-Related Provisions • System Improvements The 2008 Reform Effective 10/1/2008 End of “Administered Pricing” Loss Costs LCMs NYCIRB’s governing structure The 2013 Reform Revised Assessment Process Closing of the Reopened Case Fund Elimination of Special Disability Fund Actual Assessment Data From State WC Board Relate Assessments to Paid Losses Mitigation / Efficiency Factor Indemnity Impact:+17.8% Total Impact: +13.3% Increase in Maximum Weekly Benefit Fratello Method Recognition of Varying Wage Levels by Injury Type Increased System Utilization Increase in Maximum Weekly Benefit Impact Effective Date Overall Impact 7/1/2007 Max Weekly Benefit $500 7/1/2008 $550 1.9% 7/1/2009 $600 1.5% 7/1/2010 $740 4.1% 7/1/2011 $773 0.8% 7/1/2012 $792 0.3% 7/1/2013 $803 0.2% 7/1/2014 $809 0.1% 7/1/2015 $844 0.4% Total To Date 6.0% 16.2% Caps on PPD Duration % Loss of Earnings = # Weeks of Benefits Actual PPD Data From State WC Board Distribution of Loss of Earnings PPD Settlement Considerations Hardship Provision Total Impact: -28% Benefit Duration by Impairment Ratings Loss of Earning % Number of Weeks Greater than 95% 525 90% to 95% 500 85% to 90% 475 80% to 85% 450 75% to 80% 425 70% to 75% 400 60% to 70% 375 50% to 60% 350 40% to 50% 300 30% to 40% 275 15% to 30% 250 Less than 15% 225 Final Calculation Loss of Earning percentage Number of Weeks Greater than 95% 525 90% to 95% Selected Distribution Percentage Savings Lump sum Cases Other Cases 0.5% 17.0% 33.5% 500 0.5% 18.5% 34.2% 85% to 90% 475 2.4% 20.0% 35.0% 80% to 85% 450 2.4% 21.5% 35.7% 75% to 80% 425 10.1% 46.1% 73.0% 70% to 75% 400 10.1% 49.1% 74.6% 60% to 70% 375 19.9% 52.2% 76.0% 50% to 60% 350 15.8% 55.3% 77.6% 40% to 50% 300 21.5% 61.4% 80.7% 30% to 40% 275 8.2% 64.5% 82.3% 15% to 30% 250 6.4% 67.7% 83.9% Less than 15% 225 2.0% 70.9% 85.4% 54.2% 75.6% Average Total Average Savings on Perm. Partial Non Schedule 71.3% Total Average Savings on Perm. Partial 50.5% Total Impact -28.0% Reflection of Reforms in Subsequent Filing Back to Basics What’s in the Reported Data? Pre-Reform vs. Post Reform Loss Development Adjustment Historical loss development information is primarily pre- reform OK to use it if we assume losses are at pre-reform levels Need adjustment if applying loss development factors (LDF) to losses at post reform levels Paid vs. Paid + Case Duration Cap Development Adjustments Reported Indemnity Paid Loss Development Triangle PY 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/ULT 1991 1.015 1.164 1992 1.017 1.014 1.162 1993 1.016 1.010 1.013 1.165 1994 1.016 1.013 1.015 1.013 1.161 1.016 1.012 1.013 1.011 1.011 1.162 1.017 1.016 1.015 1.013 1.011 1995 1996 1997 1.020 1.018 1.016 1.016 1.014 1.021 1.016 1.020 1.015 1.015 1.029 1.019 1.021 1.019 1.020 1.020 1998 1999 2000 1.029 1.024 1.022 1.019 2001 1.051 1.033 1.032 1.025 1.020 1.100 1.038 1.033 1.033 1.017 1.028 2002 2003 1.135 1.095 1.050 1.042 2004 1.146 1.129 1.090 1.053 1.039 2005 1.167 1.110 1.130 1.085 1.037 2006 1.291 1.170 1.113 1.128 1.078 2007 1.456 1.247 1.174 1.109 1.125 2008 2.200 1.480 1.271 1.192 1.096 2009 2.150 1.471 1.258 1.149 2010 2.159 1.506 1.240 2011 2.145 1.459 2012 2.111 Note: Numbers shown in this exhibit are for illustration purposes only Restating the Loss Development Factors: Example (1) Reported PY 2002 7th to 8th link ratio 1.100 (2) Development portion 0.100 (3) % of Non Scheduled out of total PPD 66.7% (4) % of PPD out of total indemnity 86.6% (5) % Non Scheduled out of indemnity (3)x(4) 57.8% (6) Development portion that is NSPPD (2)x(5) 0.058 (7) Development portion that is other than NSPPD (2)-(6) 0.042 (8)* % of cases affected by limited duration 25% (9) Restated NSPPD Development portion (6) x [1-(8)] 0.043 (10) Restated PY 2002 7th to 8th link ratio 1+(9)+(7) 1.086 Row (8) assumes at this point in the development, 25% are cases are now limited, whereas before they were still developing. 75% of the cases are still developing at this point in the triangle, even after the reform, as they still haven't reached the maximum duration. These assumed percentages can be found on the top of each column of the "restated" triangles. The percentages are based on a distribution of severities obtained from the Workers’ Compensation Board. Note: Numbers shown in this exhibit are for illustration purposes only Restated Indemnity Paid Loss Development Triangle PY % Cases affected 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 0 0 0 0 5 15 25 40 55 70 75 80 85 90 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2.200 2.150 2.159 2.145 2.111 1.456 1.480 1.471 1.506 1.459 1.123 1.142 1.118 1.086 1.081 1.077 1.039 1.029 1.038 1.041 1.167 1.107 1.119 1.073 1.028 1.291 1.170 1.111 1.120 1.070 1.020 1.023 1.023 1.029 1.027 1.017 1.014 1.019 1.020 1.017 1.012 1.011 1.013 1.014 1.010 1.011 1.009 1.011 1.010 1.011 1.009 1.009 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.008 1.008 1.008 1.007 1.009 15/16 16/17 17/18 95 1.007 1.006 1.007 1.007 1.007 95 1.007 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.007 95 1.008 1.005 1.007 1.005 1.005 18/19 19/ULT 95 95 1.007 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.005 1.074 1.073 1.075 1.073 1.073 1.247 1.174 1.109 1.125 1.271 1.192 1.096 1.258 1.149 1.240 Note: Numbers shown in this exhibit are for illustration purposes only Reform Development Adjustment Summary 1st to 19th 19th to Ultimate Reported Restated Adjustment Reported Restated Adjustment 1st to Ultimate Adjustment 7.921 7.096 0.896 1.162 1.073 0.923 0.827 Total Full Year Adjustment -17.3% Note: Numbers shown in this exhibit are for illustration purposes only Special Disability Fund (SDF) Development Adjustments Reported Indemnity Paid + Case Loss Development Triangle Evaluated as of 2008 PY 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1/2 1.586 1.419 1.388 1.407 1.392 2/3 1.272 1.289 1.181 1.169 1.214 3/4 1.093 1.121 1.175 1.068 1.116 4/5 1.074 1.073 1.072 1.062 1.069 5/6 1.043 1.070 1.032 1.036 1.066 6/7 1.005 1.053 1.037 1.023 1.036 7/8 0.999 1.024 1.014 1.002 1.038 8/9 1.008 1.023 1.027 1.019 1.015 9/10 0.991 1.024 1.018 1.016 1.008 10/11 1.003 1.022 1.038 1.014 1.008 11/12 1.002 1.019 1.027 1.017 1.006 12/13 1.005 1.013 1.031 1.010 1.009 13/14 1.012 1.006 1.031 1.013 1.003 14/15 1.002 0.996 1.028 1.010 1.000 15/16 1.019 0.979 1.015 1.007 0.999 16/17 1.009 1.004 1.017 1.009 0.998 17/18 1.000 0.997 1.016 1.012 0.999 18/19 19/ULT 0.999 1.015 1.009 1.019 0.991 1.040 1.040 1.040 1.040 1.040 Note: Numbers shown in this exhibit are for illustration purposes only Restating the Loss Development Factors: Example (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Reported PY 1997 5th to 6th link ratio % of indemnity claims were subject to the SDF elimination % of claims accepted by the SDF at each development age % of all claims that were accepted by the SDF at each development age (2)x(3) % of all claims that were not accepted by the SDF at each development age 1-(4) 1.043 5.8% 60.1% 3.5% 96.5% (6) Adjustment Factor* 1.189 (7) Restated PY 1997 5th to 6th link ratio (1)x(4)x(6)+(1)x(5) 1.050 *The adjustment factor is determined by restating the reported loss development triangle which consists entirely of pre-reform years so that the restated LDF to ultimate is 17.8% higher than the original LDF to ultimate. Note: Numbers shown in this exhibit are for illustration purposes only SDF Acceptance Rate Year Claims were Accepted Accident Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 TOTAL by Acceptance Year 1998 156 - 1999 298 88 - 2000 174 106 20 - 2001 169 129 56 16 - 2002 440 434 258 79 10 - 2003 326 352 441 263 87 10 - 2004 510 506 542 508 311 85 11 - 2005 238 443 400 411 334 162 21 6 - 2006 166 295 401 440 450 358 152 29 2 - 2007 134 196 269 411 410 353 289 106 16 1 2008 90 169 239 391 570 490 434 308 138 19 2009 53 73 140 228 313 428 414 346 286 78 2010 33 68 75 137 180 234 332 265 271 128 2011 22 34 58 92 93 183 195 236 212 113 2012 9 14 14 41 54 63 104 150 203 100 2013 3 7 11 15 25 23 33 43 63 39 Total by Accident Year 2,821 2,914 2,924 3,032 2,837 2,389 1,985 1,489 1,191 478 156 386 300 370 1,221 1,479 2,473 2,015 2,293 2,185 2,848 2,359 1,723 1,238 752 262 22,060 Accident Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1 156 88 20 16 10 10 11 6 2 1 2 454 194 76 95 97 95 32 35 18 20 3 628 323 334 358 408 257 184 141 156 98 4 797 757 775 866 742 615 473 449 442 226 5 1,237 1,109 1,317 1,277 1,192 968 907 795 713 339 6 1,563 1,615 1,717 1,717 1,602 1,458 1,321 1,060 925 439 7 2,073 2,058 2,118 2,128 2,172 1,886 1,653 1,296 1,128 478 11 2,701 2,791 2,841 2,976 2,812 2,389 12 2,754 2,859 2,899 3,017 2,837 13 2,787 2,893 2,913 3,032 14 2,809 2,907 2,924 15 2,818 2,914 16 2,821 Ultimate 2,823 2,917 2,935 3,060 2,888 2,474 2,107 1,649 1,416 640 Accident Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Average AY 1 6% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1.2% 2 16% 7% 3% 3% 3% 4% 2% 2% 1% 3% 4.4% 3 22% 11% 11% 12% 14% 10% 9% 9% 11% 15% 12.5% 4 28% 26% 26% 28% 26% 25% 22% 27% 31% 35% 27.6% 5 44% 38% 45% 42% 41% 39% 43% 48% 50% 53% 44.3% 6 55% 55% 58% 56% 55% 59% 63% 64% 65% 69% 60.1% 7 73% 71% 72% 70% 75% 76% 78% 79% 80% 75% 74.9% Years of Development 8 2,311 2,353 2,387 2,519 2,485 2,120 1,848 1,446 1,191 9 2,477 2,549 2,626 2,747 2,665 2,303 1,952 1,489 10 2,611 2,718 2,766 2,884 2,758 2,366 1,985 Years of Development 8 82% 81% 81% 82% 86% 86% 88% 88% 84% 9 88% 87% 89% 90% 92% 93% 93% 90% 10 93% 93% 94% 94% 96% 96% 94% 11 96% 96% 97% 97% 97% 97% 12 98% 98% 99% 99% 98% 13 99% 99% 99% 99% 14 100% 100% 100% 15 100% 100% 16 100% 84.2% 90.3% 94.2% 96.6% 98.2% 99.1% 99.6% 99.9% 99.9% Restated Indemnity Paid + Case Loss Development Triangle Evaluated as of 2008 PY % Cases affected 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1/2 9/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 4.4% 12.5% 27.6% 44.3% 60.1% 74.9% 84.2% 90.3% 94.2% 96.6% 98.2% 99.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.587 1.420 1.389 1.408 1.393 2/3 1.274 1.291 1.183 1.171 1.216 3/4 1.096 1.124 1.179 1.071 1.119 4/5 1.079 1.078 1.077 1.067 1.074 5/6 1.050 1.077 1.039 1.043 1.073 6/7 1.013 1.062 1.046 1.031 1.045 7/8 1.008 1.033 1.023 1.011 1.048 8/9 1.018 1.033 1.037 1.029 1.025 1.001 1.035 1.029 1.027 1.018 1.014 1.033 1.049 1.025 1.019 1.013 1.030 1.038 1.028 1.017 1.016 1.024 1.042 1.021 1.020 1.023 1.017 1.042 1.024 1.014 14/15 1.013 1.007 1.039 1.021 1.011 15/16 1.030 0.990 1.026 1.018 1.010 16/17 1.020 1.015 1.028 1.020 1.009 17/18 1.011 1.008 1.027 1.023 1.010 18/19 19/ULT 1.010 1.026 1.020 1.030 1.002 1.051 1.051 1.051 1.051 1.051 Note: Numbers shown in this exhibit are for illustration purposes only Reported Indemnity Paid + Case Loss Development Triangle Evaluated as of 2014 PY 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1/2 1.451 1.526 1.509 1.513 1.495 2/3 1.226 1.249 1.200 1.219 1.207 3/4 1.113 1.109 1.114 1.115 1.089 4/5 1.077 1.058 1.050 1.043 1.035 5/6 1.071 1.038 1.068 1.037 1.023 6/7 1.034 1.040 1.028 1.026 1.011 7/8 1.024 1.018 1.021 1.021 1.017 8/9 1.029 1.011 1.024 1.027 1.013 9/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/ULT 1.018 1.015 1.020 1.010 1.011 1.002 1.008 1.018 1.015 1.013 1.001 1.005 1.007 1.003 1.009 1.009 1.004 1.007 1.005 1.006 1.009 1.004 1.002 1.003 1.008 1.004 1.005 1.005 1.002 1.006 1.010 1.005 1.005 1.003 1.004 1.006 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.001 1.009 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.006 1.002 1.004 1.003 1.032 1.032 1.032 1.032 1.032 Note: Numbers shown in this exhibit are for illustration purposes only Restated Indemnity Paid + Case Loss Development Triangle Evaluated as of 2014 PY % Cases affected 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1/2 4.4% 1.451 1.526 1.509 1.513 1.495 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/ULT 12.5% 27.6% 44.3% 60.1% 74.9% 84.2% 90.3% 94.2% 96.6% 98.2% 99.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.226 1.249 1.200 1.219 1.207 1.116 1.109 1.114 1.115 1.089 1.082 1.062 1.051 1.043 1.035 1.078 1.045 1.074 1.038 1.023 1.042 1.049 1.036 1.033 1.012 1.033 1.027 1.030 1.030 1.025 1.039 1.021 1.034 1.037 1.023 1.029 1.025 1.031 1.020 1.021 1.013 1.019 1.029 1.026 1.024 1.012 1.016 1.018 1.014 1.020 1.020 1.015 1.018 1.016 1.017 1.020 1.015 1.013 1.014 1.019 1.015 1.016 1.016 1.013 1.017 1.021 1.016 1.016 1.014 1.015 1.017 1.015 1.015 1.014 1.012 1.020 1.015 1.015 1.014 1.013 1.013 1.017 1.013 1.015 1.014 1.043 1.043 1.043 1.043 1.043 Note: Numbers shown in this exhibit are for illustration purposes only SDF Impact in The 2015 Filing (1) Reported 1st to 19th development factor 2.546 (2) Restated 1st to 19th development factor 2.931 (3) Adjustment factor for 1st to 19th (2)/(1) 1.151 (4) Reported 19th to ultimate factor 1.032 (5) Restated 19th to ultimate factor 1.043 (6) Adjustment factor for 19th to ultimate (5)/(4) 1.011 (7) Total development adjustment factor (3)x(6) 1.164 16.4% Note: Numbers shown in this exhibit are for illustration purposes only Doubly Adjusted Triangle Reported Indemnity Paid + Case Triangle REPORTED INDEMNITY PAID + CASE TRIANGLE PY 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 1991 1992 1993 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1.001 1.029 1.004 1.029 1.004 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.002 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 1.009 1.020 1.015 1.010 1.013 1.011 1.027 1.013 1.113 1.058 1.068 1.026 1.017 1.011 1.050 1.037 1.043 1.023 2009 1.526 1.200 1.115 1.035 2010 1.509 1.219 1.089 2011 1.513 1.207 2012 1.495 1.008 1.024 1.021 1.114 1.006 1.011 1.021 1.109 1.002 1.003 1.018 1.028 1.249 1.002 1.007 1.024 1.040 1.226 1.004 1.005 1.034 1.038 1.451 1.004 1.001 1.002 1.006 1.071 2008 1.001 1.005 1.077 2005 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.029 1.004 1.005 1.007 1.029 1.004 1.002 1.005 1.018 1.005 1.006 1.004 1.005 1.008 1.002 1.009 1.004 1.004 1.015 1.029 1.004 1.009 1.018 1.008 1.006 1.009 1.029 19/20 20/ULT 1.010 1994 1995 18/19 Note: Numbers shown in this exhibit are for illustration purposes only Duration Cap Adjusted Indemnity Paid + Case Triangle RESTATED TRIANGLE POST DURATION CAP ADJUSTMENT PY % Cases affected 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 0 5 15 25 40 55 70 75 80 85 90 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 1.451 1.526 1.509 1.513 1.495 1.226 1.249 1.200 1.219 1.207 1.106 1.109 1.114 1.115 1.089 1.066 1.052 1.050 1.043 1.035 1.055 1.029 1.057 1.037 1.023 1.023 1.027 1.019 1.020 1.011 1.014 1.011 1.013 1.013 1.012 1.016 1.006 1.014 1.015 1.007 1.010 1.008 1.011 1.005 1.006 1.001 1.004 1.009 1.008 1.007 1.000 1.002 1.003 1.001 1.004 1.004 1.002 1.003 1.002 1.003 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.004 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.003 1.005 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.002 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.004 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.003 1.001 1.002 1.001 19/20 20/ULT 95 1.004 1.002 1.002 1.000 1.002 95 1.013 1.013 1.013 1.013 1.013 Note: Numbers shown in this exhibit are for illustration purposes only SDF & Duration Cap Adjusted Indemnity Paid + Case Triangle RESTATED TRIANGLE POST SDF ADJUSTMENT PY % Cases affected 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1/2 4.4% 1.451 1.526 1.509 1.513 1.495 2/3 3/4 12.5% 27.6% 1.226 1.249 1.200 1.219 1.207 1.109 1.109 1.114 1.115 1.089 4/5 5/6 6/7 44.3% 60.1% 74.9% 1.071 1.057 1.051 1.043 1.035 1.062 1.036 1.063 1.038 1.023 1.031 1.036 1.027 1.027 1.012 7/8 8/9 9/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 84.2% 90.3% 94.2% 96.6% 98.2% 99.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.012 1.028 1.015 1.014 1.026 1.014 1.013 1.012 1.026 1.016 1.013 1.013 1.013 1.024 1.013 1.013 1.013 1.012 1.012 1.026 1.015 1.013 1.013 1.012 1.012 1.015 1.013 1.013 1.012 1.011 1.011 1.013 1.012 1.012 1.013 1.012 1.013 1.014 1.012 1.014 1.015 1.014 1.013 1.015 1.020 1.012 1.014 1.019 1.015 1.018 1.023 1.020 1.022 1.022 1.020 1.026 1.016 1.024 1.025 1.017 1.021 1.019 1.022 1.015 1.016 19/ULT Note: Numbers shown in this exhibit are for illustration purposes only SDF Impact of 16.4% Is Then Maintained (1) Restated 1st to 19th development factor post Duration Cap adjustment 2.382 (2) Restated 1st to 19th development factor post Duration Cap & SDF adjustments 2.741 (3) Adjustment factor for 1st to 19th (2)/(1) 1.151 (4) Restated 19th to ultimate factor post Duration Cap adjustment 1.015 (5) Restated 19th to ultimate factor post Duration Cap & SDF adjustments 1.026 (6) Adjustment factor for 19th to ultimate (5)/(4) 1.011 (7) Total development adjustment factor (3)x(6) 1.164 16.4% Note: Numbers shown in this exhibit are for illustration purposes only Summary Reform adjustment depends on the reported data Adjustments can be part of on-level factors or as part of development factor Adjust one triangle at a time The devil is in the details Questions?