Problem Focused Exercise: Is binge drinking an economic problem? 1 Scenario The government has become increasingly worried about binge drinking, particularly amongst the young. In the 2008 budget taxes on alcohol were substantially increased. This exercise examines why excessive drinking may be an economic problem and the possible effects of government policy. Task 1 Read the following extract and then answer these questions. (a) Explain the economic argument that the alcoholic drinks market should not be subject to government interference because the ‘free market’ allows ‘consumer sovereignty’. (b) Expand on the discussion of the problems of alcohol consumption in the article to explain the externalities associated with drinking alcohol. Be precise in your argument in relating to this economic concept. (c) Why does such market failure give an arguable case for government intervention to improve social welfare by reducing consumption of alcohol? Use a diagram to illustrate this. (d) Show, again using a diagram, how taxes on alcohol may improve social welfare given such externalities. (e) The argument that the free market unfettered by government interference is best depends, in part, on consumers being the best judge of their own welfare. Is that a problem here? (f) What policies other than taxation are mentioned in the article that might help reduce consumption of alcohol by the young? Are these likely to be more successful than taxation? Argue a case. feedback page 3 Copyright: Embedding Threshold Concepts Project 08/10/08 This project is funded by the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE) and the Department for Employment and Learning (DEL) under the Fund for the Development of Teaching and Learning. Problem Focused Exercise: Is binge drinking an economic problem? 2 Binge drinking youngsters Based on: Diversionary tactics for binge drinkers by Mary O'Hara, The Guardian, Wednesday January 23 2008 We know because of surveys, the large increases in alcohol-related illnesses, and reports of police cells and Accident & Emergency departments dealing with the unwelcome outcomes, that many of us are drinking excessively, particularly at the weekends. Positive Futures, the government social inclusion programme, has published the latest research on binge drinking among young people. It focuses on some of the country's most deprived areas where the impact of excessive drinking on health, crime and family breakdown is most acute. The survey sampled 1,250 young people between the ages of 10-19. In face-to-face interviews they obtained their opinions on, firstly, what causes their excess drinking and, secondly, what might persuade them to stop it. In the interviews over 40% responded that they began drinking at under 13 and 50% replied their parents either condoned or didn't care about their drinking. The majority obtained their alcohol from local supermarkets or shops. An even more worrying 75% reported that they had either been violent or in trouble as a direct result of binge drinking. The main conclusion of the research is that the youngsters' excess alcohol consumption is a symptom of wider social problems. There have been many proposals for reducing alcohol abuse in the young: making alcohol less accessible by prohibiting cheap, bulk-buy promotions; raising the price by additional taxation; public health campaigns to shock people into taking the health risks seriously; and more prosecution of shop owners selling to underage drinkers. The survey asked the youngsters directly what they thought would work. Forty-six per cent of the young people interviewed considered organised sport and leisure activities would help, slightly fewer considered the provision of better health information helpful, while around a third thought measures to tackle underage sales in shops would be an obstacle to purchasing. Positive Futures have 123 schemes across the country which directly engage with young persons. The responses to these schemes were favourable by the youngsters involved who suggested they helped them cut back on drinking. Policymakers face difficult questions as to how to produce real and enduring changes in behaviour. Police, the drinks industry, voluntary sector and policymakers are meeting in London to discuss this research and the light it throws on young people's drinking habits. Copyright: Embedding Threshold Concepts Project 08/10/08 This project is funded by the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE) and the Department for Employment and Learning (DEL) under the Fund for the Development of Teaching and Learning. Problem Focused Exercise: Is binge drinking an economic problem? 3 Feedback Task 1 (a) What is the argument that the free market gives the most desirable outcome? We need to consider both sides of the market – consumers and producers and to answer this. The argument starts with the view that consumers can best decide what they want to buy with their incomes – they know what they most like (not the government). Demand for drink will reflect consumer choices and consumers will purchase more as long as they feel the price makes buying the extra worth it to them. Producers decide what to produce, how to produce it and how much to produce to maximise their profits. The firm will not supply more of a good unless they can cover the opportunity costs of doing so. Suppliers will provide more of the good as long as this adds to their economic profits. So what happens if consumer demand increases for alcoholic drinks? The price increases and producers see an opportunity to make more profit by producing more. They respond to consumers’ wishes - this is what is meant by ‘consumer sovereignty’. However, in the long run, if profits continue to be high more firms will enter the industry and the additional supply will then drive down prices so that they reflect costs and not super-normal profits. (This argument also assumes a competitive market structure and not a monopoly with barriers to entry.) (b) What are the externalities? Let’s start with the definition: Externalities are effects of consumption or production of a good on third parties – here, that is people not directly involved in consuming or the making of the alcoholic drinks. What are these effects in this case? The article mentions police cells and A&E departments which lead us to consider disorderly behaviour and violence that may affect other people in the high street or indeed the home. The use of the A&E department means that the resources of the NHS are being used as a result of the drinking and the cost of this is an externality effect on all taxpayers and other users of A&E departments who will face increased waiting time, etc. These are negative externalities. There are other externalities here. Can you think of any? Note it is NOT the effect directly on the person’s health, etc. that is the externality – that is their choice. (c) Why does the existence of negative externalities lead to a problem of social welfare? The externalities mean that the drinkers are not taking account of the full costs of their actions. If they had to take account of these extra costs consumption would be lower. The price mechanism is not sending the correct signals and we have what is known as market failure and oversupply of alcohol. We can use figure 1 to show the effect. We draw the demand and supply curves in the standard way (the numbers are purely illustrative). The market for alcohol only takes into account private costs, giving a price of £2.00 and 6,000 units bought. However, if we include all costs, including the externality costs, this would shift the supply curve to the left and the price would be higher at £3.00 and the number of units sold would be reduced to 5,000. At the moment drinkers are ‘getting it on the cheap’ and not paying the full costs of their consumption and this means fewer resources available to others. Copyright: Embedding Threshold Concepts Project 08/10/08 This project is funded by the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE) and the Department for Employment and Learning (DEL) under the Fund for the Development of Teaching and Learning. Problem Focused Exercise: Is binge drinking an economic problem? 4 Figure 1: The market for alcohol Price £ Supply including private and externality cost Supply including only private costs 6 5 Demand 5000 6000 Quantity (units of alcohol) (d) What is the rationale for government intervention? This welfare economics problem means that the unfettered price mechanism is not sending the correct signals, too much alcohol is being consumed from society’s point of view and there is an arguable case for government intervention. If the tax rise is successful it will raise the brewers and other alcoholic drink manufacturers’ costs as they have to pay the excise tax, leading the supply curve to move to the left – less supply at each price - and the price of alcohol to rise as they pass some of the tax increase onto their customers (i.e. a movement towards the supply curve that includes the externality costs in figure 1). (e) Are consumers the best judge of their own welfare? The argument in part (a) relied on consumers being the best judge of what they should buy for their own happiness or welfare. However, that is disputable here for several reasons: (i) children may not be the best judge of their own welfare but need guidance; (ii) people generally may be myopic – concentrating on short-run pleasure and not the long-run affect on their health, for instance, which they later come to regret; (iii) people may not have all the information, or be able to understand the information, to make an informed choice; (iv) people may feel pressurised by others into making a particular choice. (f) What other methods are available? The article mentions several - restrictions on sales outlets etc., trying to change people’s choices (what example does the article give of this?). There are advantages and disadvantages to each method – none are fully successful. Copyright: Embedding Threshold Concepts Project 08/10/08 This project is funded by the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE) and the Department for Employment and Learning (DEL) under the Fund for the Development of Teaching and Learning. Problem Focused Exercise: Is binge drinking an economic problem? 5 Task 2 Read the extract below and answer the following questions: (a) What does the article suggest will be the effect of putting up the tax on alcohol? Is this in line with economic theory? Use a diagram in your answer. (b) What will be the effect of what the article suggests on brewery and other drinks manufacturers’ profits? (c) Are brewers and other alcoholic drink manufacturers likely to absorb all the tax increase in the long run? feedback page 6 Irresponsible drinks discounting continues despite Government action Based on: Shops defy attempt to curb binge drinking, The Observer, Sunday March 23 2008. The Chancellor in the recent budget raised taxes on beer, wine and spirits. This follows warnings from doctors on the health consequences of binge drinking, particularly among the young. It has been argued that both supermarkets and corner shops have been selling drink too cheaply and irresponsibly. The increased tax is paid by the brewers and they would normally recover this by passing on the cost increase in the prices they charge shops and supermarkets. warns that the aggressive market they are trading in has put them under huge pressure. The letter is reported as saying 'we are not confident the Budget will result in material increases in retail prices' because of continued discounting by major supermarkets. It goes on to say that ‘We regret to say that we cannot absorb the increases in costs that the Budget would seem to demand'. It goes on to ask suppliers to help 'by absorbing these increases within your own company'. However, a leaked letter reported in The Observer from a large retail outlet, with over six hundred stores covering the country, suggests that shops are defying attempts by the government to crack down on cheap alcohol and excessive drinking. The letter from the Bargain Booze chain to its suppliers It appears that, rather than putting their prices up with the increased taxes, retailers are attempting to force the brewers to absorb the increase so that they can continue aggressively price-cutting. Brewers who raise their prices have been warned their contracts may come to an end. Copyright: Embedding Threshold Concepts Project 08/10/08 This project is funded by the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE) and the Department for Employment and Learning (DEL) under the Fund for the Development of Teaching and Learning. Problem Focused Exercise: Is binge drinking an economic problem? 6 Feedback Task 2 (a) What does the article suggest will happen to price? The article suggests that the price of alcohol will not rise because the retailers are forcing the brewers to absorb the tax. What diagram should we use? We should use a demand and supply diagram as we want to know the effect on price and the quantity bought and sold. We would expect the supply curve to shift to the left as shown in the diagram below – the increase in taxes is an increase in costs to the brewers. This causes the price to rise and the quantity to fall. However, the increase in price (at least in the short run) is not as high as the increase in taxes – economic theory does suggest there will be an absorption of a part of the tax by the brewers as they compete to maintain business. The size of this fraction depends on the elasticities. Try drawing the diagram and see what happens if the demand curve is much flatter (on the same scale this would mean a more elastic demand). Figure 2: The market for alcohol Price £ Supply including additional tax Supply Additional Tax 6 5 Demand 5000 6000 Quantity (units of alcohol) (b) How does profit relate to price and quantity? First consider the definition of profit: Profit = revenue - costs where revenue = (price X quantity) and cost is (average cost X quantity). So what will happen to profit in this case? Since average cost is going up and nothing else is changing, profits will fall. (c) Can brewers continue making lower profits in the long run? This is unlikely - it can only be the case if they were making an excessive profit before - which is unlikely given the power of the retailers. The rise in costs is more likely to drive some brewers out of business and as the quantity supplied drops, prices will rise – that is, there will be a movement towards long-run equilibrium. Copyright: Embedding Threshold Concepts Project 08/10/08 This project is funded by the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE) and the Department for Employment and Learning (DEL) under the Fund for the Development of Teaching and Learning. Problem Focused Exercise: Is binge drinking an economic problem? Reflection Yes 7 Partly No Do you understand: 1. What costs drinkers do not pay for and why this is important in explaining externalities? 2. Why economists are concerned with this problem? 3. How equilibrating forces are likely to lead to the tax being passed on in the long run? If your answer is ‘No’ or ‘Partly’ to any of the above, which of the following do you now intend to do to improve your understanding? 1. Ask for guidance from my tutor? 2. Read a relevant section in a textbook? 3. Work though some example questions? Copyright: Embedding Threshold Concepts Project 08/10/08 This project is funded by the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE) and the Department for Employment and Learning (DEL) under the Fund for the Development of Teaching and Learning. Problem Focused Exercise: Is binge drinking an economic problem? 8 Notes for lecturers Objectives of the exercise and prerequisites Learning Focus: Appreciating why binge drinking is an economic problem and developing an understanding of markets, incentives and market failure. The aim is to get students using economic ideas rather than focusing on the social and medical details. Threshold Concepts that are pivotal to this learning are welfare economics and incentives. The modelling concept of equilibrium is also used. Prior Knowledge Required Students need an understanding of demand and supply. It can be used, with lecturer assistance, without prior knowledge of concepts such as externalities as a way of introducing the topic. Alternatively it can be used as reinforcement of ideas introduced in a lecture. Sequencing and timing 1. Task 1 asks students to read the extract and then answer a question. A number of subsidiary questions are provided to help students through the analysis. 2. The task can be carried out on an individual basis but students may benefit from working in groups. Students can be asked to give a presentation of their findings to encourage participation (this can be certain selected groups rather than all in order to fit the time scheduling). 3. It is possible to set task 1 without task 2. 4. Feedback for task 1 should be given before students attempt task 2. 5. If task 1 is carried out in groups and time is given for around three short presentations by student groups, the exercise is likely to take 40 minutes. Otherwise the full task can be done in this time. Copyright: Embedding Threshold Concepts Project 08/10/08 This project is funded by the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE) and the Department for Employment and Learning (DEL) under the Fund for the Development of Teaching and Learning.