Rivier College, CS699 Professional Seminar
The Revolution Yet to Happen
Gordon Bell & James N. Gray
(from Beyond Calculation, Chapter 1)
Revolution Yet to Happen
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Discoveries in the Past
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The Electron Discovery by J. J. Thompson, 1895;
First Electronic Computers were built in 1940s;
The Transistor was invented in 1947;
First Programming Languages (ALGOL, FORTRAN,
COBOL, and LISP) were designed in the late 1950s;
First Operating Systems were created in the mid 1960s;
First Computer Science Departments were formed in 1960s;
Integrated Circuits appeared by the mid 1960s;
First Microprocessors & Hand Calculator were made in 1972;
Revolution Yet to Happen
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Discoveries in the Past (continued)
• Computer Chips & Personal Computers appeared in the
late 1970s;
• The IBM PC appeared in 1981;
• Ethernet was invented in 1973;
• the Internet (originally ARPANET) started in 1970s;
• World Wide Web appeared in 1989-1992.
Revolution Yet to Happen
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Predictions in the Past
• First Description of Digital Computer by Charles Babbage, 19c.;
• IBM and Univac bet “that computers would become the engines
to run large businesses” as “electronic brains”, 1950;
• In 1950, Turing believed “that by 2000 we would have
computers that could not be distinguished from humans by their
responses to questions”;
• In 1960, the founders of Artificial Intelligence believed “that
thinking machines would be a reality within a decade or two”;
• In 1968, the founders of Software Engineering believed that this
discipline would solve the software crisis within a decade
• In 1945, MIT Prof. Bush predicted hypertext-based library
network, speech-to-printing device, head-mounted camera.
Revolution Yet to Happen
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Predictions in the Past
• In 1975, Digital Equipment predicted that $1M-8Mbytetime-shared computer system would sell for $8,000 and an
organizer or calculator for $100 in 1997;
• In 1980, Bell Labs believed that UNIX would become the
world’s dominant Operating System;
• In 1982, Bill Gates thought that 640K of Main Memory
would suffice for user Workspaces in Operating Systems;
• In 1984, IBM believed that “Personal Computers would
not amount to anything”;
• In 1985, many people believed that “the Japanese Fifth
Generation project would produce Intelligent Machines”.
Revolution Yet to Happen
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Some New Predictions
• In 2047, Computers will be one hundred thousand times
more powerful than those of today;
• Moore’s Law: processing speeds, storage capacities, network
bandwidth continue to evolve with the rate of 1.6 per year;
• In 2047, almost all information will be in Cyberspace;
• New ways to inform, entertain, and educate people;
• eCommerce: information systems, marketing, trade;
• New levels of personal services, health care, automation;
• Ability to communicate remotely with one another by using
all our senses;
• (by Peter Cohrane) Computers could have the human brain
capacities by 2047: on-body personal assistants (read, hear).
Revolution Yet to Happen
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Cyberspace
• Computer Platforms and the Content they
hold (processors, memories, basic system
software);
• Hardware and Software Interface
Transducer Technology (platform-peopleother physical systems connections);
• Networking technology.
Revolution Yet to Happen
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Tendencies
• Handling more complex data types:
- images, video, virtual reality;
• Synthesis in artificially created environments: atomic structures,
building, spacecraft);
• Analysis: recognition;
• “virtual villages and cities”
• universal form of communication through the coupling of
images, music, and video with computer translation of speech;
• the Internet: create, manage, and consume intellectual property.
Revolution Yet to Happen
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Three Cyberspace Blocks
• Computer Platforms: The Computer and
Transistor Revolution;
• Hardware and Software Cyberization
Interfaces: Connecting to Physical World;
• Networks: A Convergence and
Interoperability among All Nets.
Revolution Yet to Happen
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Future Platforms, Their Interfaces, and
Supporting Networks
• Computer Systems follow three paths over time:
- Evolution (constant or slightly lower price and
increasing performance and functionality timeline;
- Establishment of new lower-priced classes when cost
can be reduced by factor of ten: a new class forms
about every ten years;
- commoditization into appliances and other devices:
speech recognition, filing, printing, display are
incorporated into OTHER devices (watches, talking
calculators and telephones, graphical camera).
Revolution Yet to Happen
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Future Platforms, Their Interfaces, and
Supporting Networks (continued)
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New Computer Classes;
MicroSystems: Systems-on-a-Chip;
Web Computers;
Scalable computers replace nonscalable multiprocessor
servers;
• Useful, self-maintaining computers vs. Users as System
Manages;
• “Telepresence” Technology (mechanism, size & structure,
purpose, professional discipline);
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Future Platforms, Their Interfaces, and
Supporting Networks (continued)
• Computers, devices, and Appliances that understand
speech;
• Video: Synthesis, Analysis, and Understanding;
• Body Nets: Interconnecting all the computers that we
carry;
• One-Chip, fully-Networked systems: “computer disappear
to become components for everything”.
Revolution Yet to Happen
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