Illinois Job Index
Release
06/29/2012
Data
Jan 1990 / May 2012
Issue
2012.06
www.real.illinois.edu
For May Illinois Job Index, the RMW and the Nation all had positive job growth while the state had negative job growth.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The
objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois
employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and
Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics
Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
Apr 2012– May 2012

June
2012
Negative
Total non-farm
employment
Growth
Rate %
Nation
Last 12 months
Number of
Jobs
May 2012
Number of
Jobs
Growth
Rate%
Shadow U.R.
*
0.06
77,000
1.36
1,781,000
12.1%
RMW
0.08
15,800
0.98
182,800
13.0%
Illinois
-0.03
-1,800
0.40
22,500
11.4%
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
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Illinois 
Notes 
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Nation

Notes

Illinois shed 1,800 jobs in May 2012, compared with a revised 2,800 job losses in Apr 2012. Compared
to May 2011, Illinois has added 22,500 jobs. The three-month moving average of jobs, a more stable
measure of labor market, was up by 1,700 jobs per month.
In May 2012, the Nation added 77,000 jobs at a rate of 0.06%, compared with a revised 68,000 job gains
in Apr. The three-month moving average of jobs was up by 96,000 jobs per month.
RMW added 15,800 jobs in May at a rate of 0.08% after a revised 17,600 job gains in Apr. The threemonth moving average was up by 14,200 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in Dec 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 28 times and
positive job gains 25 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 292,100 jobs since the
beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Five sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Information and Financial activities.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 112,500 new jobs.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors
such as Manufacturing, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality.
By May 2013, sector Other services is going to lose more than twice the jobs compared to the recession
period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009 while sector Leisure & hospitality will recover to the previous
employment peak level.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.4%, 13.0% and 12.1%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 8.6%, 7.4% and 8.2%.
Through May 2012, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January
1990 stood at 8.08%, 10.69%, and 21.86%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 77,000 jobs. Sectors such as Manufacturing, Trade,
transportation & utilities, Information, Professional & business services, Education & health and Other
services had major job gains.
Since the last employment peak in December 2007, the nation has lost 4,974,000 jobs. However, for
RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation has average growth rates for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 were 0.07%,-0.22%,
-0.32%, 0.07%, 0.12% and 0.12%, respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 06/29/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – May 2012
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Nation
RMW
Illinois
May 2012
Number of Jobs
133,008,000
18,917,100
5,694,100
Current
Index to Jan 1990
121.86
110.69
108.08
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
23,861,000
1,826,500
425,800
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
-4,974,000
-1,481,900
-362,900
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rate Jun 2011 – May 2012
Jun/11
Jul/11
Aug/11
Sep/11
Oct/11
Nov/11
Dec/11
Jan/12
Feb/12
Mar/12
Apr/12
May/12
0.60%
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 06/29/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2012- May
At the point of
2010-Jun
In 5 years
111,400 jobs/year
109,300 jobs/year
In 8 years
69,700 jobs/year
68,300 jobs/year
In 10 years
55,700 jobs/year
54,700 jobs/year
In 15 years
37,100 jobs/year
36,500 jobs/year
* The figure 669,700 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, 2000Nov. The gap between the previous peak 2000-Nov and the previous lowest point 2009-Dec is 475,400. Adding 194,300, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 669,700.
**The figure 32,700 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 (previous lowest level) through Jun. 2010.
*** The figure 112,500 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 through May 2012.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 06/29/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector Apr 2012- May 2012
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-3.00%
-2.50%
-2.00%
-1.50%
Nation


Sector
notes




Illinois Jobs Index
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
RMW
1.00%
IL
Illinois posted negative change in May 2012 by shedding 1,800 jobs. Five out of ten sectors
recorded net gains. Compared to April, Other services (-0.82% to 0.37%) had a major
performance gain; Construction (-1.77% to -2.43%) had a major performance loss.
Manufacturing (0.31% to 0.81%), Trade, transportation & utilities (0.06% to 0.28%), Financial
activities (0.00% to 0.19%) and Education & health (-0.22% to 0.12%) experienced net
performance gain while Professional & business services (0.00% to -0.66%), Leisure &
hospitality (0.09% to -0.34%) and Government (0.24% to 0.00%) experienced net losses in
performance.
In May at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Education & health: 44,000 (0.22%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 49,000 (0.19%)
o Information: 4,000 (0.15%)
Major losses at the national level in May were recorded by:
o Construction: -35,000 (-0.63%)
o Government: -28,000 (-0.13%)
o Leisure & hospitality:-7,000 (-0.05%)
For Illinois, the top three job-gain sectors in May were:
o Manufacturing: 4,800 (0.81%)
o Other services: 900 (0.37%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 3,200 (0.28%)
Following are the major sectors that lost jobs in May for Illinois:
o Construction: -4,600 (-2.43%)
o Professional & business services:-5,600 (-0.66%)
o Information: -400 (-0.40%)
For Illinois, five sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has -328,000 fewer jobs, Construction is down -46,000 jobs, Information
down -31,000 jobs, Trade transportation & utilities down -10,200 jobs, and Financial activities
down -8,700 jobs.
release 06/29/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – May 2012
Illinois
vs.
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Nation
-
Number of Jobs
-46,000
Rate %
-19.97
%
-3.10
%
1.57
Manufacturing
-
-
-328,000
-35.56
-28.35
-32.84
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
-
-10,200
-0.89
2.00
11.36
Information
-
-
-31,000
-23.79
-16.69
-1.27
Financial activities
-
-
-8,700
-2.33
12.91
17.23
Professional & business services
-
-
277,300
48.48
59.29
65.60
Education & health
-
-
322,200
60.90
65.13
88.93
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
144,800
37.72
23.76
46.18
Other Services
+
-
38,100
18.53
17.72
27.03
Government
-
-
76,600
10.14
9.96
20.91
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – May 2012
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Recovery
Jan 2010- May
2012
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Recovery Jan 2010May 2013
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,900
-19,400
-30.36%
-33,900
-53.05%
Manufacturing
-115,800
40,700
35.15%
65,700
56.74%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-96,800
16,600
17.15%
12,400
12.81%
Information
-11,400
-5,000
-43.86%
-6,900
-60.53%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-33,000
-93,800
32,300
-800
69,500
29,700
-2.42%
74.09%
--
600
78,200
47,300
1.82%
83.37%
--
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
16,800
75.34%
22,200
99.55%
Other services
-5,600
-12,600
-225.00%
-14,600
-260.71%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
4,800
-23,800
--
-21,400
--



Recovery
by Sector



Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced
negative job growth. Education & health and Government are the only 2 sectors that had
positive job growth during the recession.
Since Jan 2010, Illinois employment resumed. Manufacturing, Trade, transportation &
utilities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have recovered 35.15%,
17.15%, 74.09%, 75.34%, respectively, from the job lost during the recession.
However, Construction, Information, Financial activities and Other services continued to lose
jobs leading to negative recovery rates of -30.36%, -43.86%, -2.42% and -225.00%
respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase
for sectors such as Manufacturing, Financial activities, Professional & business services and
Leisure & hospitality.
For sectors such as Construction, Information and Other services, they will continue to lose
jobs with faster rates.
By May 2013, sector Other services is going to lose more than twice the jobs compared to the
recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009 while sector Leisure & hospitality will recover to the
previous employment peak level.
release 06/29/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
Apr 2012 – May 2012
Apr 2012 – May 2012
150.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-2.43
-4,600
RMW
-0.56
-3,800
Nation
-0.63
-35,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
National
RMW
IL
80.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Manufacturing
Apr 2012 – May 2012
Apr 2012 – May 2012
110.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.81
4,800
RMW
0.17
4,400
Nation
0.08
9,000
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
National
RMW
IL
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
Apr 2012 – May 2012
Apr 2012 – May 2012
120.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.28
3,200
RMW
0.12
4,300
Nation
0.19
49,000
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Illinois Jobs Index
release 06/29/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
Apr 2012 – May 2012
Apr 2012 – May 2012
140.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.40
-400
RMW
-0.40
-1,200
Nation
0.15
4,000
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Financial activities
2012
Apr 2012 – May 2012
Apr 2012 – May 2012
130.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.19
700
RMW
0.16
1,600
Nation
0.00
0
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Professional & business services
2012
Apr 2012 – May 2012
Apr 2012 – May 2012
170.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.66
-5,600
RMW
0.18
4,200
Nation
0.13
24,000
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Illinois Jobs Index
2012
release 06/29/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
Apr 2012 – May 2012
Apr 2012 – May 2012
200.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.12
1,000
RMW
0.26
7,900
Nation
0.22
44,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Leisure & hospitality
2012
Apr 2012 – May 2012
Apr 2012 – May 2012
150.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.34
-1,800
RMW
-0.18
-3,200
Nation
-0.05
-7,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Other Services
2012
Apr 2012 – May 2012
Apr 2012 – May 2012
135.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.37
900
RMW
-0.01
-100
Nation
0.06
3,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Illinois Jobs Index
2012
release 06/29/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
Apr 2012 – May 2012
Apr 2012 – May 2012
130.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.00
0
RMW
0.06
1,800
Nation
-0.13
-28,000
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2012
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government
and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois
and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries
including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 06/29/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9