Illinois Job Index
Release
07/26/2012
Data
Jan 1990 / Jun 2012
Issue
2012.07
www.real.illinois.edu
For May Illinois Job Index, the RMW and the Nation all had positive job growth while the state had negative job growth.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The
objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois
employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and
Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics
Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
May 2012– Jun 2012

Jul
2012
Positive
Total non-farm
employment
Growth
Rate %
Nation
Last 12 months
Number of
Jobs
Jun 2012
Number of
Jobs
Growth
Rate%
Shadow U.R.
*
0.06
80,000
1.35
1,777,000
12.1%
RMW
-0.04
-7,800
1.06
199,100
13.3%
Illinois
0.01
800
0.45
25,500
11.7%
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
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Illinois 
Notes 
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Nation

Notes

Illinois added 800 jobs in Jun 2012, compared with a revised 1,900 job losses in May 2012. Compared to
Jun 2011, Illinois has added 25,500 jobs. The three-month moving average of jobs, a more stable
measure of labor market, was down by 1,300 jobs per month.
The Nation added 77,000 jobs at a rate of 0.06%, compared with a revised 68,000 job gains in May. The
three-month moving average of jobs was up by 96,000 jobs per month.
RMW shed 7,800 jobs in Jun at a rate of -0.04% after a revised 1,600 job gains in May. The three-month
moving average was up by 3,800 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in Dec 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 28 times and
positive job gains 26 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 291,400 jobs since the
beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Five sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Information and Financial activities.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 113,200 new jobs.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors
such as Manufacturing, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality. By June 2013,
sector Other services is going to shed more than third time the jobs which were lost during the recession
period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009 while sector Leisure & hospitality will completely recover to the previous
employment peak level.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.7%, 13.3% and 12.1%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 8.7%, 7.4% and 8.2%.
Through Jun 2012, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January
1990 stood at 8.10%, 10.56%, and 21.93%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 80,000 jobs. Sectors such as Professional & business
services, Construction, Manufacturing, Financial activities, Leisure & hospitality and Other services had
major job gains.
Since the last employment peak in December 2007, the nation has lost 4,894,000 jobs. However, for
RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation has average growth rates for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 were 0.07%,-0.22%,
-0.32%, 0.07%, 0.12% and 0.09%, respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 07/26/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – Jun 2012
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Nation
RMW
Illinois
Jun 2012
Number of Jobs
133,088,000
18,895,100
5,694,800
Current
Index to Jan 1990
121.93
110.56
108.10
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
23,941,000
1,804,500
426,500
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
-4,894,000
-1,503,900
-362,200
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rate Jul 2011 – Jun 2012
Jul/11
Aug/11
Sep/11
Oct/11
Nov/11
Dec/11
Jan/12
Feb/12
Mar/12
Apr/12
May/12
Jun/12
0.60%
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 07/26/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2012- June
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
113,100 jobs/year
129,200 jobs/year
In 8 years
70,700 jobs/year
80,800 jobs/year
In 10 years
56,600 jobs/year
64,600 jobs/year
In 15 years
37,700 jobs/year
43,100 jobs/year
* The figure 678,900 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, 2000Nov. The gap between the previous peak 2000-Nov and the previous lowest point 2009-Dec is 475,400. Adding 203,500, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 678,900.
**The figure 32,700 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 (previous lowest level) through Jun. 2010.
*** The figure 113,200 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 through Jun 2012.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 07/26/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector May 2012- Jun 2012
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
Nation


Sector
notes




Illinois Jobs Index
0.00%
0.50%
RMW
1.00%
IL
Illinois posted positive change in Jun 2012 by adding 800 jobs. Five out of ten sectors recorded
net gains. Compared to May, Construction (-2.80% to 0.76%) had a major performance gain;
Manufacturing (4.60% to 2.40%) had a major performance loss. Information (-0.30% to
0.20%), Professional & business services (-0.48% to 0.42%), Education & health (0.04% to
0.33%), Leisure & Hospitality (-0.55% to 0.74%) experienced net performance gain while
Trade, transportation & utilities (0.22% to -0.43%), Trade, transportation & utilities (0.44% to
-0.41%), Other services (0.58% to -1.31%) and Government (0.02% to -0.47%) experienced
net losses in performance.
In Jun at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Professional & business services: 44,000 (0.25%)
o Manufacturing: 10,000 (0.08%)
o Construction: 4,000 (0.07%)
Major losses at the national level in Jun were recorded by:
o Government: -9,000 (-0.04%)
o Information: -1,000 (-0.04%)
o Education & health:-6,000 (-0.03%)
For Illinois, the top three job-gain sectors in Jun were:
o Construction: 1,400 (0.76%)
o Leisure & Hospitality: 3,900 (0.74%)
o Professional & business services: 3,600 (0.42%)
Following are the major sectors that lost jobs in Jun for Illinois:
o Other services: -3,200 (-1.31%)
o Government:-3,900 (-0.47%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: -4,900 (-0.43%)
For Illinois, five sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has -325,800 fewer jobs, Construction is down -45,300 jobs, Information
down -30,700 jobs, Trade transportation & utilities down -15,800 jobs, and Financial activities
down -9,300 jobs.
release 07/26/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – Jun 2012
Illinois
vs.
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Nation
-
Manufacturing
-
-
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
Information
Number of Jobs
-45,300
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
Rate %
-19.66
%
-3.07
%
1.70
-325,800
-35.32
-28.25
-32.77
-
-15,800
-1.38
1.98
11.40
-
-
-30,700
-23.56
-17.23
-1.31
Financial activities
-
-
-9,300
-2.50
12.76
17.44
Professional & business services
-
-
282,400
49.37
60.06
65.95
Education & health
-
-
324,300
61.29
64.86
88.87
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
147,600
38.45
23.83
46.32
Other Services
-
-
35,400
17.22
17.71
27.20
Government
+
-
72,700
9.63
9.18
20.86
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – Jun 2012
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Jun
2012
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan 2010Jun 2013
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,900
-18,700
-29.26%
-32,300
-50.55%
Manufacturing
-115,800
42,900
37.05%
54,600
47.15%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-96,800
11,000
11.36%
-3,600
-3.72%
Information
-11,400
-4,700
-41.23%
-5,900
-51.75%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-33,000
-93,800
32,300
-1,400
74,600
31,800
-4.24%
79.53%
--
-900
92,300
49,400
-2.73%
98.40%
--
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
19,600
87.89%
28,200
126.46%
Other services
-5,600
-15,300
-273.21%
-18,300
-326.79%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
4,800
-27,500
--
-23,500
--



Recovery
by Sector



Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced
negative job growth. Education & health and Government are the only 2 sectors that had
positive job growth during the recession.
Since Jan 2010, Illinois employment resumed. Manufacturing, Trade, transportation &
utilities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have recovered 37.05%,
11.36%, 79.53%, 87.89%, respectively, from the job lost during the recession.
However, Construction, Information, Financial activities and Other services continued to lose
jobs leading to negative recovery rates of -29.26%, -41.23%, -4.24% and -273.21%
respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase
for sectors such as Manufacturing, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality.
However, sector like Trade, transportation & utilities may lose jobs again rather than recovery.
For sectors such as Construction, Information and Other services, they will continue to lose
jobs with faster rates.
By June 2013, sector Other services is going to shed more than third time the jobs which were
lost during the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009 while sector Leisure & hospitality will
completely recover to the previous employment peak level.
release 07/26/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
May 2012 – Jun 2012
May 2012 – Jun 2012
150.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.76
1,400
RMW
0.12
800
Nation
0.07
4,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
National
RMW
IL
80.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Manufacturing
May 2012 – Jun 2012
May 2012 – Jun 2012
110.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.40
2,400
RMW
0.26
6,700
Nation
0.08
10,000
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
National
RMW
IL
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
May 2012 – Jun 2012
May 2012 – Jun 2012
120.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.43
-4,900
RMW
-0.17
-6,100
Nation
0.02
6,000
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Illinois Jobs Index
release 07/26/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
May 2012 – Jun 2012
May 2012 – Jun 2012
140.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.20
200
RMW
-0.44
-1,300
Nation
-0.04
-1,000
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Financial activities
2012
May 2012 – Jun 2012
May 2012 – Jun 2012
130.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.41
-1,500
RMW
-0.10
-1,000
Nation
0.04
3,000
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Professional & business services
2012
May 2012 – Jun 2012
May 2012 – Jun 2012
170.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.42
3,600
RMW
0.67
15,300
Nation
0.25
44,000
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Illinois Jobs Index
2012
release 07/26/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
May 2012 – Jun 2012
May 2012 – Jun 2012
200.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.33
2,800
RMW
-0.06
-1,800
Nation
-0.03
-6,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Leisure & hospitality
2012
May 2012 – Jun 2012
May 2012 – Jun 2012
150.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.74
3,900
RMW
-0.01
-200
0.07
-0.05
10,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Other Services
2012
May 2012 – Jun 2012
May 2012 – Jun 2012
135.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-1.31
-3,200
RMW
0.03
200
Nation
0.07
4,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Illinois Jobs Index
2012
release 07/26/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
May 2012 – Jun 2012
May 2012 – Jun 2012
130.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.47
-3,900
RMW
-0.70
-20,300
Nation
-0.04
-9,000
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2012
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government
and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois
and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries
including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 07/26/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9