Illinois Job Index
Release
08/31/2012
Data
Jan 1990 / Jul 2012
Issue
2012.08
www.real.illinois.edu
For May Illinois Job Index, the RMW and the Nation all had positive job growth while the state had negative job growth.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The
objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois
employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and
Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics
Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
Jun 2012– Jul 2012

Aug
2012
Negative
Total non-farm
employment
Growth
Rate %
Nation
Last 12 months
Number of
Jobs
Jul 2012
Number of
Jobs
Growth
Rate%
Shadow U.R.
*
0.11
141,000
1.37
1,797,000
12.3%
RMW
0.13
24,700
1.03
192,500
13.8%
Illinois
-0.09
-5,100
0.54
30,600
12.1%
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
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Illinois 
Notes
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Nation

Notes
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Illinois shed 5,100 jobs in Jul 2012, compared with a revised 0 job changes in Jun 2012. Compared to Jul
2011, Illinois has added 30,600 jobs. The three-month moving average of jobs, a more stable measure of
labor market, was down by 2,300 jobs per month.
The Nation added 141,000 jobs at a rate of 0.11%, compared with a revised 45,000 job gains in Jun. The
three-month moving average of jobs was up by 91,000 jobs per month.
RMW added 24,700 jobs in Jul at a rate of 0.13% after a revised 4,900 job losses in Jun. The threemonth moving average was up by 7,100 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in Dec 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 29 times and
positive job gains 26 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 297,300 jobs since the
beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Five sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Information and Financial activities.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 116,900 new jobs.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors
such as Manufacturing, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality but decrease for
sector Trade, transportation & utilities. By July2013, sector Other services is going to shed more than
fourth time the jobs which were lost during the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 12.1%, 13.8% and 12.3%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 8.9%, 7.6% and 8.3%.
Through Jul 2012, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January
1990 stood at 7.98%, 10.72%, and 22.04%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 141,000 jobs. Sectors such as Professional & business
services, Information, Manufacturing, Education & health, Leisure & hospitality and Other services had
major job gains.
Since the last employment peak in December 2007, the nation has lost 4,778,000 jobs. However, for
RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation has average growth rates for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 were 0.07%,-0.22%,
-0.32%, 0.07%, 0.12% and 0.11%, respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 08/31/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – Jul 2012
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Nation
RMW
Illinois
Jul 2012
Number of Jobs
133,204,000
18,922,700
5,688,900
Current
Index to Jan 1990
122.04
110.72
107.98
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
24,057,000
1,832,100
420,600
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
-4,778,000
-1,476,300
-368,100
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rate Aug 2011 – Jul 2012
Aug/11
Sep/11
Oct/11
Nov/11
Dec/11
Jan/12
Feb/12
Mar/12
Apr/12
May/12
Jun/12
Jul/12
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 08/31/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2012- June
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
116,400 jobs/year
131,300 jobs/year
In 8 years
72,700 jobs/year
82,100 jobs/year
In 10 years
58,200 jobs/year
65,700 jobs/year
In 15 years
38,800 jobs/year
43,800 jobs/year
* The figure 689,300 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, 2000Nov. The gap between the previous peak 2000-Nov and the previous lowest point 2009-Dec is 475,400. Adding 213,900, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 689,300.
**The figure 32,700 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 107,300 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 through July 2012.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 08/31/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector Jun 2012- Jul 2012
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-2.50%
-2.00%
-1.50%
-1.00%
Nation


Sector
notes

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

Illinois Jobs Index
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
RMW
1.00%
1.50%
IL
Illinois posted negative change in Jul 2012 by shedding 5,100 jobs. Seven out of ten sectors
recorded net gains. Compared to Jun, Information (0% to 0.91%) had a major performance
gain; Leisure & hospitality (0.70% to -0.81%) had a major performance loss. Trade,
transportation & utilities (-0.34% to 0.42%) and Financial activities (-0.27 % to 0.19%),
experienced net performance gain while Construction (0.44% to -0.27%), Manufacturing
(0.40% to 0.22%), Education & health (0.25% to 0.15%), Other services (-1.06% to -1.95%)
and Government (-0.43% to -0.93%) experienced net losses in performance.
In Jul at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Information: 8,000 (0.30%)
o Professional & business services: 47,000 (0. 26%)
o Leisure & hospitality: 28,000 (0.21%)
Major losses at the national level in Jun were recorded by:
o Government: -21,000 (-0.10%)
o Financial activities: -2,000 (-0.03%)
For Illinois, the top three job-gain sectors in Jun were:
o Information: 900 (0.91%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 4,800 (0.42%)
o Construction: 500 (0.27%)
Following are the major sectors that lost jobs in Jul for Illinois:
o Other services: -4,700 (-1.95%)
o Government:-7,700 (-0.93%)
o Leisure & hospitality: -4,300 (-0.81%)
For Illinois, five sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has -324,500 fewer jobs, Construction is down -45,400 jobs, Information
down -30,000 jobs, Trade transportation & utilities down -10,000 jobs, and Financial activities
down -8,100 jobs.
release 08/31/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – Jul 2012
Illinois
vs.
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Nation
-
Number of Jobs
-45,400
Rate %
-19.70
%
-3.55
%
1.70
Manufacturing
-
-
-324,500
-35.18
-27.93
-32.65
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
-
-10,000
-0.87
2.13
11.41
Information
-
-
-30,000
-23.02
-16.19
-1.24
Financial activities
-
-
-8,100
-2.17
12.92
17.41
Professional & business services
-
-
283,000
49.48
59.30
66.36
Education & health
-
-
324,900
61.41
65.10
89.31
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
143,100
37.28
23.63
46.66
Other Services
-
-
31,300
15.22
18.13
27.41
Government
-
-
65,300
8.65
9.78
20.69
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – Jul 2012
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Jul
2012
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan 2010Jul 2013
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,900
-18,800
-29.42%
-35,200
-55.09%
Manufacturing
-115,800
44,200
38.17%
50,500
43.61%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-96,800
16,800
17.36%
5,000
5.17%
Information
-11,400
-4,000
-35.09%
-3,700
-32.46%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-33,000
-93,800
32,300
-200
75,200
32,400
-0.61%
80.17%
--
-1,600
88,300
46,100
-4.85%
94.14%
--
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
15,100
67.71%
18,200
81.61%
Other services
-5,600
-19,400
-346.43%
-25,600
-457.14%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
4,800
-34,900
--
-41,000
--



Recovery
by Sector



Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced
negative job growth. Education & health and Government are the only 2 sectors that had
positive job growth during the recession.
Since Jan 2010, Illinois employment resumed. Manufacturing, Trade, transportation &
utilities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have recovered 38.17%,
17.36%, 80.17%, 67.71%, respectively, from the job lost during the recession.
However, Construction, Information, Financial activities and Other services continued to lose
jobs leading to negative recovery rates of -29.42%, -35.09%, -0.61% and -346.43%
respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase
for sectors such as Manufacturing, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality
but decrease for sector Trade, transportation & utilities.
For sectors such as Construction, Financial activities and Other services, they will continue to
lose jobs with faster rates.
By July2013, sector Other services is going to shed more than fourth time the jobs which were
lost during the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009 while sector Leisure & hospitality will
recover about 82% to the previous employment peak level.
release 08/31/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
150.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.27
500
RMW
-0.69
-4,600
Nation
0.00
0
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
National
RMW
IL
80.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Manufacturing
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.22
1,300
RMW
0.46
12,000
Nation
0.19
23,000
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
National
RMW
IL
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
120.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.42
4,800
RMW
0.16
5,800
Nation
0.04
11,000
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Illinois Jobs Index
release 08/31/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
140.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.91
900
RMW
1.26
3,700
Nation
0.30
8,000
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Financial activities
2012
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
130.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.19
700
RMW
0
0
Nation
-0.03
-2,000
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Professional & business services
2012
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
170.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.23
2,000
RMW
-0.43
-9,900
Nation
0.26
47,000
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Illinois Jobs Index
2012
release 08/31/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
200.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.15
1,300
RMW
0.28
8,300
Nation
0.19
38,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Leisure & hospitality
2012
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
150.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.81
-4,300
RMW
-0.07
-1,300
0.07
0.21
28,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Other Services
2012
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
135.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-1.95
-4,700
RMW
0.48
3,800
Nation
0.17
9,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Illinois Jobs Index
2012
release 08/31/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
Jun 2012 – Jul 2012
130.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.93
-7,700
RMW
0.24
7,000
Nation
-0.10
-21,000
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2012
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government
and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois
and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries
including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 08/31/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9