Illinois Job Index
Release
10/02/2012
Data
Jan 1990 / Aug 2012
Issue
2012.09
www.real.illinois.edu
For May Illinois Job Index, the RMW and the Nation all had positive job growth while the state had negative job growth.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The
objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois
employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and
Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics
Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
Jul 2012– Aug 2012

Sep
2012
Positive
Total non-farm
employment
Growth
Rate %
Nation
Last 12 months
Number of
Jobs
Aug 2012
Number of
Jobs
Growth
Rate%
Shadow U.R.
*
0.07
96,000
1.37
1,808,000
12.4%
RMW
0.11
21,700
1.19
223,100
14.2%
Illinois
0.17
9,600
0.69
39,100
12.5%
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
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Illinois
Notes 
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Nation

Notes
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Illinois added 9,600 jobs in Aug 2012, compared with a revised 5,100 job losses in Jul 2012. Compared
to Aug 2011, Illinois has added 39,100 jobs. The three-month moving average of jobs, a more stable
measure of labor market, was up by 1,500 jobs per month.
The Nation added 96,000 jobs at a rate of 0.07%, compared with a revised 141,000 job gains in Jul. The
three-month moving average of jobs was up by 94,000 jobs per month.
RMW added 21,700 jobs in Aug at a rate of 0.11% after a revised 24,700 job gains in Jul. The threemonth moving average was up by 13,800 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in Dec 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 30 times and
positive job gains 26 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 287,700 jobs since the
beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Five sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Information and Financial activities.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 116,900 new jobs.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors
such as Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business
services and Leisure & hospitality. By Aug 2013, sector Other services is going to shed nearly fourth
time the jobs which were lost during the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009 while sectors such as
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality will be likely recover to the previous
employment peak level.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 12.5%, 14.2% and 12.4%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 9.1%, 7.7% and 8.1%.
Through Aug 2012, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January
1990 stood at 8.17%, 10.85%, and 22.13%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 96,000 jobs. Sectors such as Professional & business
services, Information, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Leisure & hospitality and
Education & health had major job gains.
Since the last employment peak in December 2007, the nation has lost 4,682,000 jobs. However, for
RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation has average growth rates for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 were 0.07%,-0.22%,
-0.32%, 0.07%, 0.12% and 0.10%, respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 10/02/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – Aug 2012
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Nation
RMW
Illinois
Aug 2012
Number of Jobs
133,300,000
18,944,400
5,698,500
Current
Index to Jan 1990
122.13
110.85
108.17
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
24,153,000
1,853,800
430,200
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
-4,682,000
-1,454,600
-358,500
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rate Sep 2011 – Aug 2012
Sep/11
Oct/11
Nov/11
Dec/11
Jan/12
Feb/12
Mar/12
Apr/12
May/12
Jun/12
Jul/12
Aug/12
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 10/02/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2012- Aug
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
118,200 jobs/year
135,100 jobs/year
In 8 years
73,900 jobs/year
84,400 jobs/year
In 10 years
59,100 jobs/year
67,500 jobs/year
In 15 years
39,400 jobs/year
45,000 jobs/year
* The figure 708,100 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, 2000Nov. The gap between the previous peak 2000-Nov and the previous lowest point 2009-Dec is 475,400. Adding 232,700, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 708,100.
**The figure 32,700 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 116,900 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 through Aug 2012.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 10/02/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector Jul 2012- Aug 2012
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.00%
-0.80%
-0.60%
-0.40%
-0.20%
Nation


Sector
notes

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
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Illinois Jobs Index
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
RMW
0.80%
1.00%
IL
Illinois posted positive change in Aug 2012 by adding 9,600 jobs. Six out of ten sectors
recorded net gains. Compared to Jul, Other services (-1.95% to 0.76%) had a major
performance gain; Information (0.91% to -0.70%) had a major performance loss. Financial
activities (0.19% to 0.30%), Education & health (0.15% to 0.62%), Leisure & hospitality (
-0.81% to 0.66%) and Government (-0.93% to 0.07%) experienced net performance gain while
Construction (0.27% to -0.81%), Manufacturing (0.22% to 0.12%), Trade, transportation &
utilities (0.42% to -0.09%) and Professional & business services (0.23% to -0.02%)
experienced net losses in performance.
In Aug at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Leisure & hospitality: 34,000 (0.25%)
o Professional & business services: 28,000 (0.16%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 29,000 (0.11%)
Major losses at the national level in Aug were recorded by:
o Manufacturing: -15,000 (-0.13%)
o Other services: -4,000 (-0.07%)
o Government:-7,000 (-0.03%)
For Illinois, the top three job-gain sectors in Aug were:
o Other Services: 1,800 (0.76%)
o Leisure & Hospitality: 3,500 (0.66%)
o Education & health: 5,300 (0.62%)
Following are the major sectors that lost jobs in Aug for Illinois:
o Construction: -1,500 (-0.81%)
o Information:-700 (-0.70%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: -1,000 (-0.09%)
For Illinois, five sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has -323,800 fewer jobs, Construction is down -46,900 jobs, Information
down -30,700 jobs, Trade transportation & utilities down -11,000 jobs, and Financial activities
down -7,000 jobs.
release 10/02/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – Aug 2012
Illinois
vs.
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Nation
-
Number of Jobs
-46,900
Rate %
-20.36
%
-2.78
%
1.72
Manufacturing
-
-
-323,800
-35.11
-28.18
-32.74
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
-
-11,000
-0.96
1.80
11.54
Information
-
-
-30,700
-23.56
-16.22
-1.12
Financial activities
-
-
-7,000
-1.88
12.85
17.52
Professional & business services
-
-
282,800
49.44
59.83
66.62
Education & health
-
-
330,200
62.41
65.47
89.52
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
146,600
38.19
24.12
47.03
Other Services
-
-
33,100
16.10
18.00
27.32
Government
-
-
65,900
8.73
10.46
20.65
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – Aug 2012
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Aug
2012
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan 2010Aug 2013
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,900
-20,300
-31.77%
-33,200
-51.96%
Manufacturing
-115,800
44,900
38.77%
56,900
49.14%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-96,800
15,800
16.32%
21,200
21.90%
Information
-11,400
-4,700
-41.23%
-4,800
-42.11%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-33,000
-93,800
32,300
900
75,000
37,700
2.73%
79.96%
--
3,700
86,100
54,500
11.21%
91.79%
--
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
18,600
83.41%
23,600
105.83%
Other services
-5,600
-17,600
-314.29%
-21,400
-382.14%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
4,800
-34,300
--
-39,500
--


Recovery
by Sector

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
Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced
negative job growth. Education & health and Government are the only 2 sectors that had
positive job growth during the recession.
Since Jan 2010, Illinois employment resumed. Manufacturing, Trade, transportation &
utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have
recovered 38.77%, 16.32%, 2.73%, 79.96%, 83.41%, respectively, from the job lost during the
recession.
However, Construction, Information and Other services continued to lose jobs leading to
negative recovery rates of -31.77%, -41.23% and -314.29% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase
for sectors such as Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality.
For sectors such as Construction, Information and Other services, they will continue to lose
jobs with faster rates.
By Aug 2013, sector Other services is going to shed nearly fourth time the jobs which were
lost during the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009 while sectors such as Professional &
business services and Leisure & hospitality will be likely recover to the previous employment
peak level.
release 10/02/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
150.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.81
-1,500
RMW
0.80
5,300
Nation
0.02
1,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
National
RMW
IL
80.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Manufacturing
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.12
700
RMW
-0.36
-9,300
Nation
-0.13
-15,000
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
National
RMW
IL
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
120.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.09
-1,000
RMW
-0.32
-11,400
Nation
0.11
29,000
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Illinois Jobs Index
release 10/02/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
140.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.70
-700
RMW
-0.03
-100
Nation
0.11
3,000
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Financial activities
2012
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
130.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.30
1,100
RMW
-0.06
-600
Nation
0.09
7,000
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Professional & business services
2012
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
170.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.02
-200
RMW
0.33
7,600
Nation
0.16
28,000
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Illinois Jobs Index
2012
release 10/02/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
200.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.62
5,300
RMW
0.22
6,700
Nation
0.11
22,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Leisure & hospitality
2012
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
150.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.66
3,500
RMW
0.39
7,000
0.07
0.25
34,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Other Services
2012
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
135.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.76
1,800
RMW
-0.11
-900
Nation
-0.07
-4,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Illinois Jobs Index
2012
release 10/02/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
Jul 2012 – Aug 2012
130.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.07
600
RMW
0.62
17,800
Nation
-0.03
-7,000
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2012
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government
and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois
and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries
including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 10/02/2012
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9