Illinois Job Index
Release
03/22/2013
Data
Jan 1990 / Feb 2013
Issue
2013.02
www.real.illinois.edu
For Jan Illinois Job Index, IL, the RMW and the Nation all had positive job growth.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The
objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois
employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and
Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics
Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
Dec 2012– Jan 2013

Feb
2013
Positive
Total non-farm
employment
Growth
Rate %
Nation
Last 12 months
Number of
Jobs
Jan 2013
Number of
Jobs
Growth
Rate%
Shadow U.R.
*
0.09
119,000
1.51
2,001,000
12.1%
RMW
0.14
26,600
0.97
183,500
14.0%
Illinois
0.12
7,100
1.10
62,700
11.3%
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
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Illinois 
Notes 
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Nation

Notes
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Illinois added 7100 jobs in Jan 2013, compared with a revised 5,200 job losses in Dec 2012. Compared
to Jan 2012, Illinois has added 62,700 jobs. The three-month moving average of jobs, a more stable
measure of labor market, was up by 3,800 jobs per month.
The Nation added 119,000 jobs at a rate of 0.09%, compared with a revised 219,000 job gains in Dec
2012. The three-month moving average of jobs was up by 195,000 jobs per month.
RMW added 26,600 jobs in Jan at a rate of 0.14% after a revised 13,800 job gains in Dec. The threemonth moving average was up by 15,500 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in Dec 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 31 times and
positive job gains 30 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 207,900 jobs since the
beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Four sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing, Information and Financial activities.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 195,800 new jobs.
By Feb 2013, sector Leisure & hospitality have recovered to its previous employment peak levels. The
12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors such
as Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services
and Leisure & hospitality. For sectors such as Construction and Information, they will continue to lose
jobs with faster rates.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.3%, 14.0% and 12.1%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 9.0%, 7.4% and 7.9%.
Through Jan 2013, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January
1990 stood at 9.71%, 12.07%, and 23.51%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 119,000 jobs. Sectors such as Construction,
Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services,
Leisure & hospitality and Other services had major job gains.
Since the last employment peak in December 2007, the nation has lost 3,232,000 jobs. However, for
RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation has average growth rates for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 were 0.07%, -0.27 %, 0.32%, 0.07%, 0.13%, 0.14% respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 03/22/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – Jan 2013
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Nation
RMW
Illinois
Jan 2013
Number of Jobs
134,810,000
19,153,800
5,780,000
Current
Index to Jan 1990
123.51
112.07
109.71
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
25,665,000
2,063,200
511,700
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
-3,232,000
-1,245,200
-277,000
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rate Feb 2012 – Jan 2013
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
0.30%
0.25%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.20%
0.15%
0.10%
0.05%
0.00%
-0.05%
-0.10%
-0.15%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 03/22/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2013-Jan
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
91,700 jobs/year
124,900 jobs/year
In 8 years
57,300 jobs/year
78,100 jobs/year
In 10 years
45,900 jobs/year
62,400 jobs/year
In 15 years
30,600 jobs/year
41,600 jobs/year
* The figure 654,300 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, 2000Nov. The gap between the previous peak 2000-Nov and the previous lowest point 2009-Dec is 472,800. Adding 181,500, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 654,300.
**The figure 29,900 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 195,800 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 through Jan 2013.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 03/22/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector Dec 2012- Jan 2013
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-0.80%
-0.60%
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
Nation


Sector
notes




Illinois Jobs Index
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
RMW
1.00%
1.20%
IL
Illinois posted positive change in Jan 2013 by Added 7,100 jobs. Only three out of ten sectors
recorded net losses. Compared to Dec, Construction (-0.22% to 0.93%) had a major
performance gain; Trade, transportation & utilities (0.22% to -0.47%) had a major performance
loss. Manufacturing (-0.72% to 0.22%), Financial activities (0.05% to 0.60%), Profession &
business services (-0.40% to 0.06%), Education & health (0.05% to 0.63%), Leisure &
hospitality (0.06% to 0.17%) and Other services (-0.20% to 0.80%) experienced net
performance gain while Information (0.50% to -0.10%) and Government (-0.07% to -0.18%)
experienced net losses in performance.
In Jan at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Leisure & hospitality: 30,000 (0.22%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 26,000 (0.10%)
o Construction: 25,000 (0.44%)
Major losses at the national level in Jan were recorded by:
o Government: -21,000 (-0.10%)
For Illinois, the top three job-gain sectors in Dec were:
o Education & health: 5,500 (0.63%)
o Financial activities: 2,200 (0.60%)
o Other services: 2,200 (0.80%)
Following are the major sectors that lost jobs in Jan for Illinois:
o Trade, transportation & utilities: -5,500 (-0.47%)
o Government: -1,500 (-0.18%)
o Information: -100 (-0.10%)
For Illinois, four sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has -338,700 fewer jobs, Construction is down -45,400 jobs, Information
down -30,700 jobs and Financial activities down -1,800 jobs.
release 03/22/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – Jan 2013
Illinois
vs.
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
%
%
Nation
-
Number of Jobs
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Rate %
-45,400
-19.70
0.19
5.79
Manufacturing
-
-
-338,700
-36.72
-27.48
-32.78
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
-
15,900
1.39
3.52
13.49
Information
-
-
-30,700
-23.56
-17.90
0.26
Financial activities
-
-
-1,800
-0.48
13.94
18.99
Professional & business services
-
-
296,500
51.84
62.15
68.57
Education & health
-
-
348,200
65.81
65.95
90.92
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
154,700
40.30
29.85
49.96
Other Services
+
-
46,700
22.71
18.03
29.85
Government
+
-
74,700
9.89
9.41
20.40
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – Jan 2013
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Jan
2013
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan 2010Jan 2014
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-18,900
-29.62%
-26,100
-40.91%
Manufacturing
-114,500
28,700
25.07%
31,800
27.77%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
43,000
44.28%
57,500
59.22%
Information
-11,300
-4,800
-42.48%
-4,900
-43.36%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-32,700
-92,700
32,200
5,800
87,600
55,800
17.74%
94.50%
--
14,200
98,700
77,100
43.43%
106.47%
--
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
26,700
119.73%
37,700
169.06%
Other services
-6,300
-3,300
-52.38%
-1,400
-22.22%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-26,300
--
-17,000
--


Recovery
by Sector

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

Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced
negative job growth. Education & health and Government are the only 2 sectors that had
positive job growth during the recession.
Since Jan 2010, Illinois employment resumed. Manufacturing, Trade, transportation &
utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have
recovered 25.07%, 44.28%, 17.74%, 94.50%,119.73%, respectively, from the job lost during
the recession.
By Feb 2013, sector Leisure & hospitality have recovered to its previous employment peak
levels.
However, Construction, Information and Other services continued to lose jobs leading to
negative recovery rates of -29.62%, -42.48% and -52.38% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase
for sectors such as Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality.
For sectors such as Construction and Information, they will continue to lose jobs with faster
rates.
release 03/22/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
150.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.93
1,700
RMW
0.57
3,900
Nation
0.44
25,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Manufacturing
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.22
1,300
RMW
0.38
9,800
Nation
0.10
12,000
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
National
RMW
IL
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
120.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.47
-5,500
RMW
0.01
200
Nation
0.10
26,000
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Illinois Jobs Index
release 03/22/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
140.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.10
-100
RMW
0.59
1,700
Nation
0.04
1,000
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Financial activities
2012 2013
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
130.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.60
2,200
RMW
-0.53
-5,500
Nation
0.08
6,000
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Professional & business services
2012 2013
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
170.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.06
500
RMW
0.45
10,300
Nation
0.09
16,000
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Illinois Jobs Index
2012 2013
release 03/22/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
200.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.63
5,500
RMW
0.24
7,100
Nation
0.04
9,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Leisure & hospitality
2012 2013
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
150.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.17
900
RMW
0.55
10,200
0.07
0.22
30,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Other Services
2012 2013
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
135.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.80
2,000
RMW
0.61
4,800
Nation
0.20
11,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Illinois Jobs Index
2012 2013
release 03/22/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
Dec 2012 – Jan 2013
130.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.18
-1,500
RMW
-0.56
-16,200
Nation
-0.10
-21,000
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2012 2013
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government
and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois
and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries
including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 03/22/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9