Illinois Job Index
Release
08/30/2013
Data
Jan 1990 / Jul 2013
Issue
2013.07
www.real.illinois.edu
For July Illinois Job Index, IL, RMW and the Nation all had positive job growth.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The
objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois
employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and
Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics
Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
Jun 2013– Jul 2013

Aug
2013
Positive
Total non-farm
employment
Last 12 months
Number of
Jobs
104,000
Growth
Rate%
1.65
Number of
Jobs
2,202,000
Jul 2013
Nation
Growth
Rate %
0.08
Shadow
U.R.*
RMW
0.21
40,500
1.37
260,900
13.7%
Illinois
0.11
6,600
0.97
55,500
11.9%
13.0%
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
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Illinois 
Notes
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Nation
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Notes
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Illinois added 6,600 jobs in Jul 2013, compared with a revised 8,300 job gains in Jun 2013. Compared to
Jul 2012, Illinois has added 55,500 jobs. The three-month moving average of jobs, a more stable measure
of labor market, was up by 6,567 jobs per month.
The Nation added 104,000 jobs at a rate of 0.08%, compared with a revised 172,000 job gains in Jun
2013. The three-month moving average of jobs was up by 150,700 jobs per month.
The RMW added 40,500 jobs in Jul at a rate of 0.21% after a revised 39,300 job gains in Jun. The threemonth moving average was up by 52,700 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in Dec 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 33 times and
positive job gains also 34 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 192,600 jobs since the
beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Three sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing and Information.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 211,100 new jobs.
By Jul 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to its
previous employment peak level. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Financial activities, Trade, transportation & utilities
(TTU), Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 13.0%, 13.7% and 11.9%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 9.2%, 7.6% and 7.3%.
Through Jul 2013, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January
1990 stood at 10.00%, 13.02%, and 24.57%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 104,000 jobs. Sectors such as Trade, transportation &
utilities, Information, Professional & business services, Education & health and Leisure & hospitality
had major job gains.
Since the last employment peak in December 2007, the nation has lost 2,078,000 jobs. However, for
RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation has average growth rates for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 were 0.07%,
-0.27 %, -0.32%, 0.07%, 0.13%, 0.14% and 0.13%, respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 08/30/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – Jul 2013
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Nation
RMW
Illinois
Jul 2013
Number of Jobs
135,964,000
19,315,700
5,795,300
Current
Index to Jan 1990
124.57
113.02
110.00
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
26,819,000
2,225,100
527,000
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
-2,078,000
-1,083,300
-261,700
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rate Aug 2012 – Jul 2013
Aug/12 Sep/12 Oct/12 Nov/12 Dec/12 Jan/13 Feb/13 Mar/13 Apr/13 May/13 Jun/13 Jul/13
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 08/30/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2013- Jul
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
104,000 jobs/year
140,200 jobs/year
In 8 years
65,000 jobs/year
87,600 jobs/year
In 10 years
52,000 jobs/year
70,100 jobs/year
In 15 years
34,700 jobs/year
46,700 jobs/year
* The figure 731,000 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, 2000Nov. The gap between the previous peak 2000-Nov and the previous lowest point 2009-Dec is 472,800. Adding 258,300, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 73,1000.
**The figure 29,900 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 211,100 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 through July 2013.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 08/30/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
Nation
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Sector
notes
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Illinois Jobs Index
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
RMW
1.50%
IL
Illinois posted Positive change in July 2013 by adding 6,600 jobs. Five out of ten sectors
recorded net gains. Compared to June, Professional & business services (0.60% to 0.91%) had
a major performance gain; Information (0.20% to -1.19%) had a major performance loss.
Trade, transportation & utilities (0.22% to 0.62%), Manufacturing (-0.47% to -0.16%) and
Financial activities (0.05% to 0.16%) experienced net performance gain while Construction
(3.15% to 0.86%), Education & Health (0.09% to -0.41), Leisure & hospitality (-0.35% to 0.37%) and Government (0.00% to -0.06%) and Other Services (-1.49% to -0.68%)
experienced net losses in performance.
In July at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Professional & business services: 32,000 (0.17%)
o Information: 13,000 (0.48%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 45,000 (0.17%)
Major top three losses at the national level in were recorded by:
o Manufacturing: -16,000(-0.13%)
o Government: -23,000(-0.11%)
o Financial Activities: -5,000(-0.06%)
For Illinois, the major job-gain sectors in July were:
o Professional & business services: 8,000 (0.91%)
o Construction: 1,600(0.86%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 6,200(0.53%)
Following are the major top three sectors that lost jobs in June for Illinois:
o Other services: -1,700 (-0.68%)
o Education & health: -3,600 (-0.41%)
o Information: -1,200 (-1.19%)
For Illinois, three sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has -346,100 fewer jobs, Construction are down -41,900 jobs and
Information down -31,000 jobs.
release 08/30/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – Jul 2013
Illinois
vs.
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Nation
-
Manufacturing
-
-
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
Information
Number of Jobs
-41,900
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
Rate %
-18.19
%
-0.70
%
6.93
-346,100
-37.53
-26.84
-32.86
-
18,900
1.65
4.43
14.28
-
-
-31,000
-23.79
-18.35
1.16
Financial activities
-
-
1,900
0.51
15.42
20.00
Professional & business services
-
-
319,000
55.77
64.69
72.43
Education & health
-
-
349,500
66.06
67.28
92.69
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
153,300
39.93
32.26
52.69
Other Services
+
-
43,900
21.35
17.72
29.90
Government
-
-
67,800
8.98
9.75
20.18
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – Jul 2013
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Jul
2013
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan 2010Jun 2014
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-15,400
-24.14%
-15,500
-24.29%
Manufacturing
-114,500
21,300
18.60%
5,500
4.80%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
46,000
47.37%
56,900
58.60%
Information
-11,300
-5,100
-45.13%
-5,800
-51.33%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-32,700
-92,700
32,200
9,500
110,100
57,100
29.05%
118.77%
--
16,600
149,600
74,800
50.76%
161.38%
--
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
25,300
113.45%
30,700
137.67%
Other services
-6,300
-6,100
-96.83%
-6,700
-106.35%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-33,200
--
-36,100
--


Recovery
by Sector

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
Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced
negative job growth. Education & health and Government are the only 2 sectors that had
positive job growth during the recession.
Since Jan 2010, Illinois employment resumed. Manufacturing, Trade, transportation &
utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have
recovered 18.60%, 47.37%, 29.05%, 118.77%, 113.45%, respectively, from the job lost during
the recession.
By Jul 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered
to its previous employment peak level.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction, Information and Other services are
still negative, namely, -24.14%, -45.13% and -96.83% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase
for sectors such as Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional &
business services and Leisure & hospitality.
release 08/30/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
150.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.86
1,600
RMW
-0.61
-4,200
Nation
-0.05
-3,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Manufacturing
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.16
-900
RMW
0.3
7,800
Nation
-0.13
-16,000
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
National
RMW
IL
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
120.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.53
6,200
RMW
0.64
6,200
Nation
0.17
45,000
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Illinois Jobs Index
release 08/30/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
140.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-1.19
-1,200
RMW
0.69
2,000
Nation
0.48
13,000
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Financial activities
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
130.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.16
600
RMW
0.1
1,000
Nation
-0.06
-5,000
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Professional & business services
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
170.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.91
8,000
RMW
0.39
9,200
Nation
0.17
32,000
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Illinois Jobs Index
release 08/30/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
200.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.41
-3,600
RMW
0.08
2,500
Nation
0.13
26,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
IL
RMW
National
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Leisure & hospitality
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
150.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.37
-2,000
RMW
-0.04
-700
Nation
0.09
13,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Other Services
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
135.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.68
-1,700
RMW
0.23
1,800
Nation
-0.04
-2,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Illinois Jobs Index
release 08/30/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
Jun 2013 – Jul 2013
130.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.06
-500
RMW
-0.08
-2,200
Nation
-0.11
-23,000
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government
and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois
and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries
including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 08/30/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9