Illinois Job Index
Release
011/30/2013
Data
Jan 1990 / Oct 2013
Issue
2013.10
www.real.illinois.edu
For October Illinois Job Index, IL RMW and the Nation all had positive job growth.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The
objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois
employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and
Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics
Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
Sep 2013– Oct 2013

Nov
2013
Positive
Total non-farm
employment
Last 12 months
Number of
Jobs
204,000
Growth
Rate%
1.74
Number of
Jobs
2,329,000
Oct 2013
Nation
Growth
Rate %
0.15
Shadow
U.R.*
RMW
0.20
38,300
1.17
223,800
14.7%
Illinois
0.27
15,400
0.99
57,300
12.5%
13.1%
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points




Illinois 
Notes





Nation
Notes 

Illinois added 15,400 jobs in October 2013, compared with a 10,300 job gains in September 2013.
Compared to October 2012, Illinois has added 57,300 jobs. The three-month moving average of jobs, a
more stable measure of labor market, was up by 9,900 jobs per month.
The Nation added 204,000 jobs at a rate of 0.15%, compared with a 163,000 job gains in September
2013. The three-month moving average of jobs was up by 201,700 jobs per month.
The RMW added 38,300 jobs in October at a rate of 0.20% after a 23,800 job loss in September. The
three-month moving average was up by 10,600 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 33 times
and positive job gains also 36 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 162,100 jobs since
the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Four sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing, Financial Activities and Information.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 226,200 new jobs.
By October 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to its
previous employment peak level. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU),
Financial activities, Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other services.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 12.5%, 14.7% and 13.1%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 8.9%, 7.5% and 7.3%.
Through October 2013, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 10.58%, 13.11%, and 25.11%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 204,000 jobs. All Sectors except Government
(Construction, Manufacturing, Trade transportation & utility (TTU), Information, Financial activities,
Professional &business services, Education & health, Leisure & hospitality and Other services) had
major job growth.
Since the last employment peak in December 2007, the nation has lost 1,488,000 jobs. However, for
RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation has average growth rates for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 that were 0.07%,
-0.27 %, -0.32%, 0.07%, 0.13%, 0.14% and 0.14%, respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/30/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – Oct 2013
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Nation
RMW
Illinois
October 2013
Number of Jobs
136,554,000
19,331,100
5,825,800
Current
Index to Jan 1990
125.11
113.11
110.58
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
27,409,000
2,240,500
557,500
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
-1,488,000
-1,067,900
-231,200
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rate Nov 2012 – Oct 2013
Nov/12
0.50%
Dec/12
Nation
Jan/13
Feb/13
RMW
Mar/13
Apr/13 May/13
Jun/13
Jul/13
Aug/13
Sep/13
Oct/13
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/30/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2013- Oct
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
101,300 jobs/year
143,600 jobs/year
In 8 years
63,300 jobs/year
89,800 jobs/year
In 10 years
50,600 jobs/year
71,800 jobs/year
In 15 years
33,800 jobs/year
47,900 jobs/year
* The figure 748,000 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, 2000Nov. The gap between the previous peak 2000-Nov and the previous lowest point 2009-Dec is 472,800. Adding 275,200, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 748,000.
**The figure 29,900 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 241,600 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through October2013.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/30/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
Nation


Sector
notes




Illinois Jobs Index
0.50%
1.00%
RMW
1.50%
IL
Illinois posted positive change in October 2013 by adding 15,400 jobs. Seven out of ten sectors
recorded net gains. Compared to September, Leisure & hospitality (-0.20% to 0.87%) had a
major performance gain; Other services (2.64% to 1.01%) had a major performance loss.
Manufacturing (-0.17% to 0.61%), Trade, transportation & utilities (0.06% to 0.12%) and
Professional & business services (0.04% to 0.77%) experienced net performance gains while
Government (0.63% to 0.21%), Education & health (-0.20% to -0.27%), Construction (-0.22%
to -0.87%) and Financial activities (-0.11% to -0.51%) experienced net losses in performance.
Information had unchanged performance (0.40% to 0.40%).
In October at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Education & health: 23,000 (0.11%)
o Leisure & hospitality: 53,000 (0.37%)
o Construction: 11,000 (0.19%)
Major loss at the national level in October was recorded by:
o Government: -8000 (-0.04%)
For Illinois, the major job-gain sectors in October were:
o Other services: 2,600 (1.01%)
o Leisure & hospitality: 4,700 (0.87%)
o Professional & business services: 6,900 (0.77%)
Following are the major top three sectors that lost jobs in October for Illinois:
o Construction: -1,600 (-0.87%)
o Financial activities: -1,900 (-0.51%)
o Education & health: -2,400 (-0.27%)
For Illinois, Four sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has shed 344,600 jobs, Construction are down 47,700 jobs, Information
down 30,600 jobs and Financial activities has 1,200 fewer jobs.
release 11/30/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – Oct 2013
Illinois
vs.
Number of Jobs
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
%
%
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Nation
-
Rate %
-47,700
-20.70
-0.17
7.60
Manufacturing
-
-
-344,600
-37.36
-26.93
-32.65
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
-
24,500
2.13
4.75
14.97
Information
-
-
-30,600
-23.48
-19.06
0.67
Financial activities
-
-
-1,200
-0.32
15.29
20.10
Professional & business services
-
-
326,600
57.10
64.64
73.56
Education & health
-
-
350,100
66.17
67.03
93.40
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
160,900
41.91
32.79
53.76
Other Services
+
-
53,900
26.22
17.59
30.21
Government
-
-
73,700
9.76
9.91
20.45
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – October 2013
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Oct
2013
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan 2010Oct 2014
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-21,200
-33.23%
-24,100
-37.77%
Manufacturing
-114,500
22,800
19.91%
29,900
26.11%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
51,600
53.14%
72,300
74.46%
Information
-11,300
-4,700
-41.59%
-3,900
-34.51%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-32,700
-92,700
32,200
6,400
117,700
57,700
19.57%
126.97%
--
11,800
152,500
82,400
36.09%
164.51%
--
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
32,900
147.53%
46,600
208.97%
Other services
-6,300
3,900
61.90%
9,000
142.86%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-27,300
--
-21,800
--


Recovery
by Sector




Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors
experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government are the only 2 sectors
that had positive job growth during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment resumed. Manufacturing, Trade, transportation &
utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other
services have recovered 19.91%, 53.14%, 19.57%, 126.97%, 147.53% and 61.90%
respectively, from the job lost during the recession.
By October 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak level.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction and Information are still negative,
namely, -33.23% and -41.59% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase
for sectors such as Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial activities,
Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other services.
Construction will continue to lose jobs with a faster rate.
release 11/30/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
150.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.87
-1,600
RMW
0.66
4,500
Nation
0.19
11,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Manufacturing
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.61
3,500
RMW
0.53
13,900
Nation
0.16
19,000
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
National
RMW
IL
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
120.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.12
1,400
RMW
0.25
9,000
Nation
0.15
39,000
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/30/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
140.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.4
400
RMW
0.28
800
Nation
0.19
5,000
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Financial activities
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
130.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.51
-1,900
RMW
0.03
300
Nation
0.09
7,000
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Professional & business services
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
170.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.77
6,900
RMW
0.05
1,100
Nation
0.24
44,000
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/30/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
200.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.27
-2,400
RMW
0.14
4,200
Nation
0.11
23,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Leisure & hospitality
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
150.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.87
4,700
RMW
0.48
9,100
Nation
0.37
53,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Other Services
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
135.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
1.01
2,600
RMW
0.48
3,800
Nation
0.11
6,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/30/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
Sep 2013 – Oct 2013
130.00
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.21
1,700
RMW
-0.34
-9,700
Nation
-0.04
-8,000
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government
and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois
and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries
including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/30/2013
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9