I L L INO I S ECO N OMI C
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local
economic performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This
information is compiled by IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional
Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
JUN 2012
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois shed 1,800 jobs in May 2012, compared with a revised 2,800 job losses in Apr 2012.
Compared to May 2011, Illinois has added 22,500 jobs. The three-month moving average of
jobs, a more stable measure of labor market, was up by 1,700 jobs per month.
The Nation added 77,000 jobs at a rate of 0.06%, compared with a revised 68,000 job gains
in Apr. The three-month moving average of jobs was up by 96,000 jobs per month.
The Rest of the Midwest (RMW) added 15,800 jobs in May at a rate of 0.08% after a revised
17,600 job gains in Apr. The three-month moving average was up by 14,200 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in Dec 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes
28 times and positive job gains 25 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of
292,100 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession,
Illinois has added 112,500 new jobs.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase
for sectors such as Manufacturing, Financial activities, Professional & business services and
Leisure & hospitality. By May 2013, sector Other services is going to lose more than twice
the jobs compared to the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009 while sector Leisure &
hospitality will recover to the previous employment peak level.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.4%, 13.0% and
12.1%, compared to official unemployment rates of 8.6%, 7.4% and 8.2%.
Through May 2012, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared
to January 1990 stood at 8.08%, 10.69%, and 21.86%, respectively.
MAY 2012
Total NonFarm
Employment
June
2012
Negative
E MP LOY M E N T C HA RT
Apr 2011– May 2012
Last 12 months
Number of
Jobs
May 2012
Growth Rate
%
Number of
Jobs
Growth Rate
%
Shadow
U.R. **
Nation
0.06
77,000
1.36
1,781,000
12.1%
RMW*
0.08
15,800
0.98
182,800
13.0%
Illinois
-0.03
-1,800
0.40
22,500
11.4%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force
participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – M A Y 2012
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990
1991
1992
LAST
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
12 M O N T H S T N F E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J U N 2011 – M A Y 2012
Jun/11
Jul/11
Aug/11
Sep/11
Oct/11
Nov/11
Dec/11
Jan/12
Feb/12
Mar/12
Apr/12
0.60%
0.50%
2012
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
3
May/12
TOTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E B Y S E C TO R S
A P R 2012 – M A Y 2012
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-3.00%
-2.50%
-2.00%
-1.50%
-1.00%
Nation
S HA D OW
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
RMW
1.00%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently
unemployed but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the
population 16 and older who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has
declined since the 1990s and thus a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does
not account for a larger number of people who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has
estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be
observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to
2004.







In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been
only 66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been
66.0%; for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow
unemployment rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
For Illinois since 2000, the gap between the official and shadow unemployment rate has
increased but recently since the early 2006 the gap has decreased. However, the gap has
increased significantly since 2008.
To bring the two together a further 194,300 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
The gap at the national level is much smaller.
4
Illinois

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
US

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
May 2012
5,694,100
184,400
594,300
1,137,800
99,300
363,900
849,300
851,300
528,700
243,700
831,700
May 2013 (p)
5,722,300
169,900
619,300
1,133,600
97,400
365,300
858,000
868,900
534,100
241,700
834,100
Number of
Jobs
19,200~28,200
-14,500
25,000
-4,200
-1,900
1,400
8,700
17,600
5,400
-2,000
2,400
Growth Rate %
0.34%~0.50%
-7.86%
4.21%
-0.37%
-1.91%
0.38%
1.02%
2.07%
1.02%
-0.82%
0.29%
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
MSAs
Apr 2012*
Apr 2013
(p)*
Number of
Jobs *
Growth
Rate %
Growth
Sector
with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector
with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
Bloomington-Normal
89,500
90,200
200~700
0.2%~0.8%
+
PRO (2.2%)
MAN (-9.9%)
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
102,200
102,200
0~200
0%~0.2%
+
CON (9.6%)
MAN (-2.2%)
Chicago
4,067,900
4,114,200
8,700~46,300
0.2%~1.1%
+
PRO (4.2%)
CON (-3.7%)
178,300
178,300
0~1,300
0%~0.7%
+
EDU (1.9%)
PRO (-3.9%)
53,200
53,200
0~200
0%~0.4%
+
CON (1.6%)
INF (-4.7%)
Kankakee
43,300
43,300
0~400
0%~0.9%
+
EDU (1.7%)
CON (-5.2%)
Peoria
185,200
188,600
1,900~3,300
1.0%~1.8%
+
PRO (5.1%)
MAN (-2.8%)
Rockford
148,600
150,300
700~1,600
0.5%~1.0%
+
MAN (4.6%)
FIN (-8.1%)
Springfield
111,500
111,000
-500~200
-0.4%~0.2%
-
EDU (3.5%)
INF (-11.5%)
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
7
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2012- May
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
109,500 jobs/year
109,300 jobs/year
In 8 years
68,400 jobs/year
68,300 jobs/year
In 10 years
54,800 jobs/year
54,700 jobs/year
In 15 years
36,500 jobs/year
36,500 jobs/year
* The figure 669,700 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous
employment peak, 2000-Nov. The gap between the previous peak 2000-Nov and the previous lowest
point 2009-Dec is 475,400. Adding 194,300, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and
official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 669,700.
**The figure 32,700 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 (previous lowest level) through June
2010.
*** The figure 112,500 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 through May 2012.
9
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –May 2012
Job Changes in
Recession
Period*
Job Recovery
Jan 2010-May
2012
Recovery
Percentage
Forecasted
Job Recovery
Jan 2010-May
2013
Forecasted
Recovery
Percentage
Construction
-63,900
-19,400
-30.36%
-33,900
-53.05%
Manufacturing
-115,800
40,700
35.15%
65,700
56.74%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-96,800
16,600
17.15%
12,400
12.81%
Information
-11,400
-5,000
-43.86%
-6,900
-60.53%
Financial activities
-33,000
-800
-2.42%
600
1.82%
Professional & business services
-93,800
69,500
74.09%
78,200
83.37%
Education & health
32,300
29,700
--
47,300
--
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
16,800
75.34%
22,200
99.55%
Other Services
-5,600
-12,600
-225.00%
-14,600
-260.71%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
4,800
-23,800
--
-21,400
--


Recovery by
Sector




During the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009, 8 out of 10
Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education &
health and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive
job growth during the recession.
Since Jan 2010, Illinois employment resumed. Manufacturing,
Trade, transportation & utilities, Professional & business services
and Leisure & hospitality have recovered 35.15%, 17.15%,
74.09%, 75.34%, respectively, from the job lost during the
recession.
However, Construction, Information, Financial activities and
Other services continued to lose jobs leading to negative recovery
rates of -30.36%, -43.86%, -2.42% and -225.00% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Manufacturing,
Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure
& hospitality.
For sectors such as Construction, Information and Other
services, they will continue to lose jobs with faster rates.
By May 2013, sector Other services is going to lose more than
twice the jobs compared to the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec
2009 while sector Leisure & hospitality will recover to the
previous employment peak level.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.39
(Dec-2007)
119.45
(Jun-2000)
115.09
(Nov-2000)
121.80
(May 2012)
110.63
(May 2012)
108.17
(May 2012)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
141.73
(Feb 2002)
116.13
(Jan 2009)
114.86
(Nov 2000)
115.02
(Mar 2008)
112.37
(Jan 2000)
126.19
(Nov 2011)
122.21
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.89
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
137.16
(Apr 2012)
103.74
(Apr 2012)
108.03
(Apr 2012)
108.44
(Apr 2012)
98.75
(Apr 2012)
121.37
(Apr 2012)
118.32
(Apr 2012)
109.93
(Apr 2012)
105.02
(Apr 2012)
107.62
(Apr 2012)
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Nation
RMW
IL
Recovery rates
at May 2012**
33.49%
33.92%
27.69%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
-41.25%
NA
31.72%
7.31%
39.19%
38.16%
70.26%
29.92%
48.93%
26.84%
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February 2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession of the total at the official start of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data are
coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI DECREASED IN APRIL
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy,
tracing the path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24
months into the future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) was 104.4 in April, down from 105.5 in March. The
decline is attributed mainly to the decrease of construction employment and weakened retail sector
in the Chicago region.

In April, the national and regional economy presented mixed features. The Federal Reserve Board
announced that total industrial output rose 1.1% in April after having fallen 0.6% in March.
Capacity utilization in total industry increased to 79.2% from 78.4% in the past month. The
nation’s unemployment rate was little changed at 8.1% in April.

The Chicago Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.11 in
April from -0.44 in March mainly due to a positive contribution of the production and income
category. In the Chicago region, manufacturing output, measured by the Chicago Fed Midwest
Manufacturing Index (CFMMI), increased 2.4% and was mainly attributed by a rise in auto sector
production However, construction employment fell 0.34% and retail sales are estimated to have
fallen 0.24% in April. Meanwhile, employment in manufacturing was little changed and nonmanufacturing employment increased 0.12% in April.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to continue its weak recovery trend. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in May
(+69,000), and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 8.2%. The CFNAI-MA3
suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year. Considering
recent national economic conditions and movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is
expected to continue its weak economic activity over the next several months.
140
4 month
forecast
above
trend
120
109.3
105.5
101.5
100
104.4
trend
CBAI (Current: 104.4)
80
1 month 3 month 1 year
Historical (ago)
105.5
109.3
101.5
Forecast (ahead)
105.9
97.1
-
below
trend
60
40
20
01/06
01/07
01/08
01/09
01/10
01/11
01/12
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Kankakee (3rd to 9th) experienced the deepest fall this month.

Decatur (1st to 6th), Bloomington-Normal (4th to 7th) and Champaign-UrbanaRantoul (9th to 10th) also dropped in terms of rank from last month.

The most remarkable upward move in March was recorded for Metro-East (10th to
4th).

Rockford (7th to 5th), Chicago (5th to 3rd), Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (6th to
2nd) and Peoria (2nd to 1st) also gained in terms of rank from last month.

In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for Peoria (3rd
to 2nd) and Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (9th to 8th) while downward moves
were recorded for Rockford (2nd to 3th) and Bloomington-Normal (8th to 9th).

Kankakee, Decatur, Chicago, Metro-East, Springfield and Champaign-UrbanaRantoul remained in the same place.

In the 12 months growth league table, Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul stayed in the
last place for the thirteenth consecutive month.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data
are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
Mar 2012
Apr 2012
Rank
Change**
1
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.7%)
Peoria (0.42%)
1
(+1)
2
Peoria (0.53%)
Rockford (0.29%)
2
(+2)
3
Chicago (0.25%)
Metro-East (0.25%)
3
(+2)
4
Rockford (0.09%)
Chicago (0.21%)
4
(-1)
5
Metro-East (-0.06%)
Bloomington-Normal (-0.05%)
5
(+1)
6
Bloomington-Normal (-0.11%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-0.14%)
6
(+3)
7
Springfield (-0.12%)
Springfield (-0.17%)
7
8
Decatur (-0.4%)
Decatur (-0.26%)
8
(+0)
(+0)
9
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-0.65%)
Kankakee (-0.46%)
9
(+1)
10
Kankakee (-0.74%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.7%)
10
(-9)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
Mar 2012
Apr 2012
Rank
Change**
1
Peoria (3.02%)
Peoria (2.93%)
1
(+0)
2
Kankakee (2.98%)
Kankakee (2.37%)
2
(+0)
3
Rockford (2.54%)
Rockford (2.34%)
3
(+0)
4
Decatur (1.6%)
Chicago (0.97%)
4
(+1)
5
Chicago (1.09%)
Decatur (0.95%)
5
(-1)
6
Metro-East (-0.12%)
Metro-East (0.56%)
6
(+0)
7
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.5%)
Springfield (-0.69%)
7
(+1)
8
Springfield (-0.51%)
Bloomington-Normal (-1.43%)
8
(+1)
9
Bloomington-Normal (-1.41%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-1.55%)
9
(-2)
10
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-2.45%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-2.05%)
10
(+0)
*
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15