I L L INO I S ECO N OMI C
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local
economic performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This
information is compiled by IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional
Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
NOV 2012
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois added 4,800 jobs in Oct 2012, compared with a revised 10,100 job gains in Sep 2012.
Compared to Oct 2011, Illinois has added 36,200 jobs. The three-month moving average of
jobs, a more stable measure of labor market, was up by 7,900 jobs per month.
The Nation added 138,000 jobs at a rate of 0.10%, compared with a revised 132,000 job
gains in Sep. The three-month moving average of jobs was up by 154,000 jobs per month.
The Rest of the Midwest (RMW) added 19,200 jobs in Oct at a rate of 0.10% after a revised
20,600 job losses in Sep. The three-month moving average was up by 13,400 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in Dec 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes
30 times and positive job gains 28 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of
275,300 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession,
Illinois has added 131,000 new jobs.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase
for sectors such as Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, financial activities,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality. By Oct 2013, sector Other
services is going to shed nearly fourth time the jobs which were lost during the recession
period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009 while sectors such as Professional & business services and
Leisure & hospitality will be likely recover to the previous employment peak level.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.4%, 13.8% and
11.8%, compared to official unemployment rates of 8.8%, 7.4% and 7.9%.
Through Oct 2012, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared
to January 1990 stood at 8.40%, 10.95%, and 22.50%, respectively.
OCT 2012
November
2012
Positive
Total NonFarm
Employment
E MP LOY M E N T C HA RT
Sep 2011–Oct 2012
Last 12 months
Number of
Jobs
Oct 2012
Growth Rate
%
Number of
Jobs
Growth Rate
%
Shadow
U.R. **
Nation
0.10
138,000
1.44
1,900,000
11.8%
RMW*
0.10
19,200
1.24
232,400
13.8%
Illinois
0.08
4,800
0.67
37,800
11.4%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force
participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – O C T 2012
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991
1992
LAST
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998 1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
12 M O N T H S T N F E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E N OV 2011 – O C T 2012
Nov/11
Dec/11
Jan/12
Feb/12
Mar/12
RMW
IL
Apr/12
May/12
Jun/12
Jul/12
Aug/12
Sep/12
0.50%
Nation
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
3
Oct/12
TOTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E B Y S E C TO R S
S E P 2012 – O C T 2012
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.00%
-0.80%
-0.60%
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
Nation
S HA D OW
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
RMW
1.00%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently
unemployed but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the
population 16 and older who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has
declined since the 1990s and thus a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does
not account for a larger number of people who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has
estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be
observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to
2004.







In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been
only 66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been
66.0%; for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow
unemployment rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
For Illinois since 2000, the gap between the official and shadow unemployment rate has
increased but recently since the early 2006 the gap has decreased. However, the gap has
increased significantly since 2008.
To bring the two together a further 177,100 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
The gap at the national level is much smaller.
4
Illinois

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
US

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
Oct 2012
5,712,600
185,100
596,900
1,132,700
96,800
366,700
858,200
863,700
536,200
238,400
828,300
Oct 2013 (p)
5,769,200
178,700
590,400
1,137,500
92,400
373,200
886,800
888,400
549,200
236,800
835,800
Number of Jobs
19,300~56,600
-6,400
-6,500
4,800
-4,400
6,500
28,600
24,700
13,000
-1,600
7,500
Growth Rate %
0.34~0.99%
-3.46%
-1.09%
0.42%
-4.55%
1.77%
3.33%
2.86%
2.42%
-0.67%
0.91%
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
Sep 2012*
Sep 2013
(p)*
Bloomington-Normal
90,000
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
Chicago
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Growth
90,400
100~400
0.11%~0.44%
+
PRO (1.3%)
MAN (-6.1%)
103,500
102,600
-900~0
-0.88%~0%
-
INF (6.9%)
MAN (-1.2%)
4,069,100
4,081,000
11,900~15,800
0.29%~0.39%
+
CON (3.6%)
EDU (1.9%)
179,400
178,500
-900~-600
-0.50%~-0.34%
-
GOV (1.3%)
PRO (-6.0%)
52,500
52,000
-500~0
-0.96%~0%
-
MAN (1.6%)
PRO (-7.1%)
Kankakee
43,300
43,200
-100~200
0.23%~0.46%
+
MAN (1.1%)
CON (-6.9%)
Peoria
183,500
185,800
300~600
0.16%~0.33%
+
MAN (2.5%)
INF (-4.4%)
Rockford
147,000
147,400
400~700
0.27%~0.47%
+
MAN (3.7%)
CON (-6.5%)
Springfield
112,400
110,500
-400~0
-0.36%~0%
-
CON (1.6%)
INF (-5.5%)
MSAs
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
95000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
90000
115000
85000
110000
80000
105000
75000
100000
70000
95000
65000
90000
60000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
85000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4400000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
190000
4200000
185000
180000
4000000
175000
3800000
170000
165000
3600000
160000
3400000
155000
150000
3200000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
7
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
46000
60000
44000
58000
42000
56000
40000
54000
38000
52000
36000
50000
34000
48000
32000
30000
46000
1990
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Year
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
160000
145000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
118000
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
2010
2012
Year
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2012- Oct
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
104,600 jobs/year
135,100 jobs/year
In 8 years
65,400 jobs/year
84,400 jobs/year
In 10 years
52,300 jobs/year
67,500 jobs/year
In 15 years
34,900 jobs/year
45,000 jobs/year
* The figure 708,100 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous
employment peak, 2000-Nov. The gap between the previous peak 2000-Nov and the previous lowest
point 2009-Dec is 475,400. Adding 177,100, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and
official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 652,500.
**The figure 32,700 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 (previous lowest level) through Jun.
2010.
*** The figure 129,400 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 through Oct 2012.
9
.
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – Oct 2012
Job Changes in
Recession
Period*
Job Changes
in Jan 2010Oct 2012
Recovery
Rate
Forecasted
Job Changes
Jan 2010-Oct
2013
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,900
-20,300
-31.77%
-33,200
-51.96%
Manufacturing
-115,800
44,900
38.77%
56,900
49.14%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-96,800
15,800
16.32%
21,200
21.90%
Information
-11,400
-4,700
-41.23%
-4,800
-42.11%
Financial activities
-33,000
900
2.73%
3,700
11.21%
Professional & business services
-93,800
75,000
79.96%
86,100
91.79%
Education & health
32,300
37,700
--
54,500
--
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
18,600
83.41%
23,600
105.83%
Other Services
-5,600
-17,600
-314.29%
-21,400
-382.14%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
4,800
-34,300
--
-39,500
--


Recovery by
Sector




During the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009, 8 out of 10
Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education &
health and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive
job growth during the recession.
Since Jan 2010, Illinois employment resumed. Manufacturing,
Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional
& business services and Leisure & hospitality have recovered
38.77%, 16.32%, 2.73%, 79.96%, 83.41%, respectively, from the
job lost during the recession.
However, Construction, Information and Other services
continued to lose jobs leading to negative recovery rates of 31.77%, -41.23% and -314.29% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Manufacturing,
Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional
& business services and Leisure & hospitality.
For sectors such as Construction, Information and Other
services, they will continue to lose jobs with faster rates.
By Oct 2013, sector Other services is going to shed nearly fourth
time the jobs which were lost during the recession period of Dec
2007-Dec 2009 while sectors such as Professional & business
services and Leisure & hospitality will be likely recover to the
previous employment peak level.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.39
(Dec-2007)
119.45
(Jun-2000)
115.09
(Nov-2000)
122.50
(Oct 2012)
110.95
(Oct 2012)
108.43
(Oct 2012)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
141.73
(Feb 2002)
116.13
(Jan 2009)
114.86
(Nov 2000)
115.02
(Mar 2008)
112.37
(Jan 2000)
126.19
(Nov 2011)
122.21
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.89
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
137.78
(Sep 2012)
104.86
(Sep 2012)
108.29
(Sep 2012)
108.36
(Sep 2012)
97.30
(Sep 2012)
120.89
(Sep 2012)
117.68
(Sep 2012)
109.07
(Sep 2012)
105.79
(Sep 2012)
106.85
(Sep 2012)
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Nation
RMW
IL
Recovery rates
at Sep 2012**
39.22%
37.22%
28.57%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
-17.79%
NA
32.16%
15.76%
22.42%
41.07%
59.07%
21.83%
62.02%
9.76%
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February 2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession of the total at the official start of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data are
coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI INCREASED IN SEPTEMBER
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy,
tracing the path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24
months into the future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) rose to 84.0 in September from 80.5 in August. The
rise is attributed mainly to the increase in nonmanufacturing employment in the Chicago region
and improved national economic activities in major sectors such as nonmanufacturing ,
construction and retail.

In September, the national and regional economy presented mixed signals. The Federal Reserve
Board announced that total industrial (manufacturing) production grew 0.4% (0.2%) in September
after having fallen 1.4% (0.9%) in August. Capacity utilization in all industry increased to 78.3%
in September from 78.0% in August while capital utilization in manufacturing remained
unchanged at 76.8%.

Chicago Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to 0.00 in
September from -1.17 in August due to improvements in production-related indicators. In the
Chicago region, manufacturing output, measured by the Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing
Index (CFMMI), decreased 0.4% in September and was mainly attributed by falls in auto,
machinery, and steel production. Employment in manufacturing and construction decreased 0.31%
and 0.60% in September while employment in nonmanufacturing rose 0.06%. Retail sales are
estimated to have fallen 0.98% in September.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to continue to show mixed signals about the
economic recovery. The CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was
below its historical trend. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll
employment increased by 171,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was essentially
unchanged at 7.9%. Considering recent national economic conditions and movements of projected
CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected to continue its weak economic activities over the next
several months.
140
120
4 month
forecast
above
trend
100
trend
CBAI (Current: 84.0)
88.4 88.9
80
84.0
80.5
1 month 3 month 1 year
Historical (ago)
80.5
88.9
88.4
Forecast (ahead)
75.1
82.0
-
below
trend
60
40
20
01/06
01/07
01/08
01/09
01/10
01/11
01/12
01/13
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Peoria (2nd to 9th) experienced the deepest fall this month.

Decatur (1st to 6th), Metro-East (6th to 7th) and Bloomington-Normal (3th to 9th)
also dropped in terms of rank from last month.

The most remarkable upward move in September was recorded for Kankakee (9th
to 1st).

Springfield (4th to 2nd), Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (7th to 3rd), ChampaignUrbana-Rantoul (8th to 4th) and Rockford (10th to 8th) also gained in terms of
rank from last month.

In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were only recorded for
Rockford (2nd to 1st), Kankakee (5th to 2nd), Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (8th to
7th), Metro-east (9th to 8th) while downward moves were recorded for Peoria (1st
to 5th), Bloomington-Normal (3rd to 6th) and Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (6th
to 9th).

Chicago and Decatur remained in the same place.

In the 12 months growth league table, Decatur remained in the last place and
Rockford climbed up to the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data
are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
Aug 2012
Sep 2012
Rank
Change**
1
Decatur (2.79%)
Kankakee (1.89%)
1
(+8)
2
Peoria (0.51%)
Springfield (0.81%)
2
(+2)
3
Bloomington-Normal (0.45%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.2%)
3
(+4)
4
Springfield (0.34%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (0.15%)
4
(+4)
5
Chicago (0.19%)
Chicago (0.03%)
5
(+0)
6
Metro-East (0.18%)
Decatur (-0.12%)
6
(-5)
7
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.16%)
Metro-East (-0.41%)
7
(-1)
8
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-0.33%)
Rockford (-0.43%)
8
(+2)
9
Kankakee (-0.44%)
Bloomington-Normal (-0.7%)
9
(-6)
10
Rockford (-0.46%)
Peoria (-1.1%)
10
(-8)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
Aug 2012
Sep 2012
Rank
Change**
1
Peoria (2.29%)
Rockford (1.64%)
1
(+1)
2
Rockford (1.99%)
Kankakee (1.44%)
2
(+3)
3
Bloomington-Normal (1.85%)
Springfield (1.04%)
3
(+4)
4
Chicago (1.01%)
Chicago (0.99%)
4
(+0)
5
Kankakee (0.32%)
Peoria (0.77%)
5
(-4)
6
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0%)
Bloomington-Normal (0.44%)
6
(-3)
7
Springfield (-0.01%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-0.01%)
7
(+1)
8
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-0.06%)
Metro-East (-0.13%)
8
(+1)
9
Metro-East (-0.12%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.39%)
9
(-3)
10
Decatur (-0.49%)
Decatur (-1.27%)
10
(+0)
*
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15